I love looking at the numbers sides of college football and a lot of the time, I learn more about teams by looking into their fantasy projections. This early in the season, it is hard to gauge how accurate projections will be with limited statistical information; so let's look at what we have.
VEGAS SIDE OF THINGS: Kentucky is 2-0 in last 3 seasons ATS v. S. Carolina while both games have gone OVER THE TOTAL. Kentucky is 1-1 in last 3 seasons STRAIGHT UP.
The (WESTGATE SUPERBOOK) line opened at -7 on Monday. Since then, it has ran up to -8.5 at 4:58PM on Thursday. Here is the catch. It shot back down to -7.5 a couple hours later. So it took 4 days to move 1.5 points to -8.5 and only 2 hrs to move a full point back down to -7.5. A lot of professional gamblers look for sharp line movements such as this to see where the big money is going. It takes a good chunk of change to move a line 1 point in 2 hrs. Not necessarily a ton of money, but a big enough bet to alter the overall betting pool. Now, this is just based off of Vegas wanting to keep the pool 50/50 so that they make their money no matter the outcome. So it is not always one bet that alters the percentage, but the line returning back to -7.5 in a short period of time leads me to believe it was one large bet. Most of the time this sharp line movement is caused by someone (who is smart) waiting to get the perfect line before placing the bet. Similar to watching the stock market. Get the most value before committing. Apparently, Kentucky +8.5 was the value they were looking for. Now, these guys don't take this bet because they think Kentucky loses by a touchdown and not 9. They usually are confident knowing that their pick will cover comfortably.
Now, on the flipside is the ML. This line has been up-down-up-down for 4 days now. Kentucky opened at +250 Wednesday morning. Thursday morning it was at +290 and by 2:00PM had went back to +270; then back to +290 at 5:00PM; and back to +270 at 6:30PM where it has settled. So not as much of a "suspect line" as the spread.
As I said before, the last two meetings between these two teams has went OVER THE TOTAL. Now, the TOTAL opened at 55.5 and has moved to 56 which is not much at all. That is actually quite low which is a little strange considering that the last two meetings have both went over and both teams are expected to run a "vertical" offense... Steve Spurrier v. Air Raidish... I know Kentucky will run it, but I don't think they will run it much more as I just see them running more North/South plays instead of sweeping plays to take advantage of the size edge. Should read more like 67 right? So when the line is set lower than what the average fan would bet it, it usually means one of three things: 1. Vegas expects one team to blow the other team out; 2. Weather is gonna play a factor and both teams will struggle to get in the end zone. I am going with vegas on this one and I am going to stay on the low side of this one. In my non-blue-tinted, honest opinion, I feel that if there is a team that can blow out the other one. It would be Kentucky doing the thumping. Towles missed open guys but made good decisions. Mitch looked lost. Kentucky is closer to exploding than South Carolina. If the weather plays a factor, I like our running game a lot more than USCjr's. Either way, that total leads me to believe that Kentucky has a great chance of covering and a decent chance of winning on the road.
How would I bet this one. Let's say I have $100 bucks and want to be aggressive, but smart (if there is such a thing in gambling).
Bet 1: I would put $55.00 on Kentucky +7.5. Win brings me back $50.00.
Bet 2: I would put $45.00 on Kentucky +270. Win brings me back $121.50.
I feel very good that Kentucky cover +7.5. I am not big on +7 because a push on Bet 1 and a loss on Bet 2 would be an overall loss. But getting that extra +.5 means Kentucky could lose by a touchdown and my winnings from Bet 1 would cover my Bet 2. I just really like my chances at +7.5.
So this is the breakdown for the bets above.
South Carolina wins by 8 or more points. Lose $100.
South Carolina wins by 7 points or less. Return my $100 bet and win additional $5.
Kentucky wins. Return my $100 bet and win additional $127.50.
Now if you are really aggressive, here is a little parlay that would pay big time at a minimal investment.
2 TEAM PARLAY- BET $10
NEW MEXICO -3.5 over Tulsa (-110)
KENTUCKY ML over South Carolina (+270)
Lose $10 or win $60
I love this time of the year. It makes it better now that we have a team that we know will be there in the end. I hope this provides a little entertainment for everyone while we wait for the big game. I love night games, but man it makes Saturday go by so slow. Thankfully, I have a golf scramble in the morning, a wedding at 3, which will lead me right up to game time. GO CATS!!!
VEGAS SIDE OF THINGS: Kentucky is 2-0 in last 3 seasons ATS v. S. Carolina while both games have gone OVER THE TOTAL. Kentucky is 1-1 in last 3 seasons STRAIGHT UP.
The (WESTGATE SUPERBOOK) line opened at -7 on Monday. Since then, it has ran up to -8.5 at 4:58PM on Thursday. Here is the catch. It shot back down to -7.5 a couple hours later. So it took 4 days to move 1.5 points to -8.5 and only 2 hrs to move a full point back down to -7.5. A lot of professional gamblers look for sharp line movements such as this to see where the big money is going. It takes a good chunk of change to move a line 1 point in 2 hrs. Not necessarily a ton of money, but a big enough bet to alter the overall betting pool. Now, this is just based off of Vegas wanting to keep the pool 50/50 so that they make their money no matter the outcome. So it is not always one bet that alters the percentage, but the line returning back to -7.5 in a short period of time leads me to believe it was one large bet. Most of the time this sharp line movement is caused by someone (who is smart) waiting to get the perfect line before placing the bet. Similar to watching the stock market. Get the most value before committing. Apparently, Kentucky +8.5 was the value they were looking for. Now, these guys don't take this bet because they think Kentucky loses by a touchdown and not 9. They usually are confident knowing that their pick will cover comfortably.
Now, on the flipside is the ML. This line has been up-down-up-down for 4 days now. Kentucky opened at +250 Wednesday morning. Thursday morning it was at +290 and by 2:00PM had went back to +270; then back to +290 at 5:00PM; and back to +270 at 6:30PM where it has settled. So not as much of a "suspect line" as the spread.
As I said before, the last two meetings between these two teams has went OVER THE TOTAL. Now, the TOTAL opened at 55.5 and has moved to 56 which is not much at all. That is actually quite low which is a little strange considering that the last two meetings have both went over and both teams are expected to run a "vertical" offense... Steve Spurrier v. Air Raidish... I know Kentucky will run it, but I don't think they will run it much more as I just see them running more North/South plays instead of sweeping plays to take advantage of the size edge. Should read more like 67 right? So when the line is set lower than what the average fan would bet it, it usually means one of three things: 1. Vegas expects one team to blow the other team out; 2. Weather is gonna play a factor and both teams will struggle to get in the end zone. I am going with vegas on this one and I am going to stay on the low side of this one. In my non-blue-tinted, honest opinion, I feel that if there is a team that can blow out the other one. It would be Kentucky doing the thumping. Towles missed open guys but made good decisions. Mitch looked lost. Kentucky is closer to exploding than South Carolina. If the weather plays a factor, I like our running game a lot more than USCjr's. Either way, that total leads me to believe that Kentucky has a great chance of covering and a decent chance of winning on the road.
How would I bet this one. Let's say I have $100 bucks and want to be aggressive, but smart (if there is such a thing in gambling).
Bet 1: I would put $55.00 on Kentucky +7.5. Win brings me back $50.00.
Bet 2: I would put $45.00 on Kentucky +270. Win brings me back $121.50.
I feel very good that Kentucky cover +7.5. I am not big on +7 because a push on Bet 1 and a loss on Bet 2 would be an overall loss. But getting that extra +.5 means Kentucky could lose by a touchdown and my winnings from Bet 1 would cover my Bet 2. I just really like my chances at +7.5.
So this is the breakdown for the bets above.
South Carolina wins by 8 or more points. Lose $100.
South Carolina wins by 7 points or less. Return my $100 bet and win additional $5.
Kentucky wins. Return my $100 bet and win additional $127.50.
Now if you are really aggressive, here is a little parlay that would pay big time at a minimal investment.
2 TEAM PARLAY- BET $10
NEW MEXICO -3.5 over Tulsa (-110)
KENTUCKY ML over South Carolina (+270)
Lose $10 or win $60
I love this time of the year. It makes it better now that we have a team that we know will be there in the end. I hope this provides a little entertainment for everyone while we wait for the big game. I love night games, but man it makes Saturday go by so slow. Thankfully, I have a golf scramble in the morning, a wedding at 3, which will lead me right up to game time. GO CATS!!!
