Bracketology

[FtWorthCat]

Up to a 3 in the Midwest this week. Could be a potential classic in the Elite Eight against Alabama.

Men's Bracketology: How the SEC schedule could hurt its record bid chase

The SEC has a shot at the Big East's 11-bid record. But in conference play, someone has to lose.

www.espn.com

 

[BlueBomb]

First team out is Arkansas. Shame.

 

[bowfreak]

If play ended today we should be a 2 seed but more than likely would be a 3. We would not be a 4 seed.

 

[Boyd94]

Funny how we were a 1 seed until losing to Georgia.

 

[FtWorthCat]

If play ended today we should be a 2 seed but more than likely would be a 3. We would not be a 4 seed.

We jumped from a 4 to a 3 this week, I posted the wrong bracket at first. We play a projected 3 seed in A&M, followed by a #1 in Alabama this week.

 

[JonathanW]

It has us as a 3 seed, which seems right for right now. I think we could earn our way up to a 2, or drop to a 4.

But it will be interesting to see how & where the SEC teams are seeded AND placed. Because we may have two 1's, and possibly three teams seeded 2 or 3, so five of top 8. Not to mention a couple other teams looking at 4 or 5 seeds, who would need to not be seeded in the same region as an SEC 1 seed. Similarly, I think they would need to avoid placing a SEC 3 seed in same region as an SEC 2 seed. So some high seeded SEC teams may go to regions far away.

So maybe it would look something like this:
SEC 1, non-SEC 2, SEC 3,
SEC 1, non-SEC 2, non-SEC 3,
non-SEC 1, SEC 2, non-SEC 3, SEC 4
non-SEC 1, SEC 2, non-SEC 3, SEC 5

What would be cool from that would be if had an E8 of something like UT vs UF, Auburn vs non-SEC, UK vs TAMU, Bama vs Miss St. I don't think we will get 7 (or even 5 or 6) of the E8 teams though.

 

[mcnicKY91]

UK was 23-9 going into Selection Sunday last year. Keep in my mind UK lost to a midmajor in the non conference, and the SEC, while still strong, was not nearly as strong as this year's version. UK was awarded a 3 seed.

My point being, UK is currently 13-3 with four big time wins. They will most likely have many other big time wins due to the strength of the SEC. UK could be at 9 or even 10 losses going into Selection Sunday, and be awarded a 3 seed at a minimum.

 

[FtWorthCat]

The UK Women are a 3 seed in the South Carolina Region. Any region but that one, and they have a shot at the FF.

Women's Bracketology: Could the No. 1 seeds already be locked up by mid-January?

UCLA, South Carolina, Notre Dame and USC have solidified their grip on the top line. LSU is the only other contender right now.

www.espn.com

 

[trueblujr2]

First team out is Arkansas. Shame.

The fact they're even still in the conversation at this point is ridiculous.

 

[UKSanders]

We jumped from a 4 to a 3 this week, I posted the wrong bracket at first. We play a projected 3 seed in A&M, followed by a #1 in Alabama this week.

yeah, this schedule is brutal, but if this team can win a chunk of these, it bodes well to keep a high seed. In addtion, they will certainly be battle-tested for March

 

[LineSkiCat14]

It has us as a 3 seed, which seems right for right now. I think we could earn our way up to a 2, or drop to a 4.

But it will be interesting to see how & where the SEC teams are seeded AND placed. Because we may have two 1's, and possibly three teams seeded 2 or 3, so five of top 8. Not to mention a couple other teams looking at 4 or 5 seeds, who would need to not be seeded in the same region as an SEC 1 seed. Similarly, I think they would need to avoid placing a SEC 3 seed in same region as an SEC 2 seed. So some high seeded SEC teams may go to regions far away.

So maybe it would look something like this:
SEC 1, non-SEC 2, SEC 3,
SEC 1, non-SEC 2, non-SEC 3,
non-SEC 1, SEC 2, non-SEC 3, SEC 4
non-SEC 1, SEC 2, non-SEC 3, SEC 5

What would be cool from that would be if had an E8 of something like UT vs UF, Auburn vs non-SEC, UK vs TAMU, Bama vs Miss St. I don't think we will get 7 (or even 5 or 6) of the E8 teams though.

If the NCAA sticks to their rules of inter-conference team placement, and the SEC putting 12 teams in, especially a lot of them in the higher seeds, this could get messy. Some teams are gonna be bumped in seed lines, more so then most years, just to make sure the paths and placement is right.

So for example and using this bracketology, the rule that states teams that have played twice can't meet until the sweet 16, means Ole Miss couldn't be our 6-seed if we play them in the SECT, and therefore, they might have to get bumped to a 5 or a 7, so they wouldn't be in our bracket (or a 6-seed elsewhere, IF that works). Same goes for Mizz as an 11-seed: if we play them again in the SECT, they also can't be our 11-seed. Now say UK falls to a 4-seed.. same problem will happen if MissSt/TAM were to be our 5 (or our 4, and we're a 5).

Kentucky will have played Tennessee, Alabama, and Vandy twice before SECT. If we play any of them in the SECT, then they won't be able to be in our Elite 8 "region"... so say Tennessee is a 2-seed and we're a 3-seed.. we would have to get moved around to be someone else's 3-seed, OR, if we're at the end of the 3-seed line, does the SC bump us back to a 4-seed to make this all easier.

I think that later point is what we might find come Selection Sunday. I think a few more teams than usually will be moved around a bit. Pretty fascinating to look at though.

 

[-BBH-]

We jumped from a 4 to a 3 this week, I posted the wrong bracket at first. We play a projected 3 seed in A&M, followed by a #1 in Alabama this week.

A big week, if we could hold serve and win both, I could see us back on the 2 line.

Obviously this scenario will change multiple times over the coming weeks, but this week is going to say a lot about what happens in March.

 

[trueblujr2]

What's insane is that of 16 teams in the SEC, only four have not at least appeared in the AP top 25 at some point, and Mizzou was within about 3 spots of being in there at one point. Almost every team in the SEC so far can make some case for getting in the tourney. (well except for Arkansas at this point.)

 

[LineSkiCat14]

What's insane is that of 16 teams in the SEC, only four have not at least appeared in the AP top 25 at some point, and Mizzou was within about 3 spots of being in there at one point. Almost every team in the SEC so far can make some case for getting in the tourney. (well except for Arkansas at this point.)

I almost want to see the Oklahomas and Mizz's upset some teams (Not UK, of course) and possibly push towards getting 12, 13 or even 14 teams in. The SECS top 2-3 teams are almost for sure dafe to make the tournament, and every passing week, that number will grow. So to me, we can only really add teams into the fold if some upsets happen.

 

[blue cincy]

Hard to compare this to last year seeding. SEC is stacked. Hard to seed for that reason. Other good teams out there as well but not one team is unbelievable. Kentucky could be a 1 seed by March or a 8 seed. Win all the home games and a few road sec games and UK is a 1 to 3 seed i think.

 

[yabbadabbadoo]

If UK can possibly win both games this week, they should be listed as a #1 seed at that moment. Does it matter, NO, but that would be fair. Who the hell would possibly have a resume even close?

 

[-BBH-]

If UK can possibly win both games this week, they should be listed as a #1 seed at that moment. Does it matter, NO, but that would be fair. Who the hell would possibly have a resume even close?

Could make a case for the best wins no doubt, however Ohio State is killing us and Clemson isn’t much better. Cannot just throw the losses out the window unfortunately. Probably will keep them off the 1 line even winning both this week.

 

[yabbadabbadoo]

Could make a case for the best wins no doubt, however Ohio State is killing us and Clemson isn’t much better. Cannot just throw the losses out the window unfortunately. Probably will keep them off the 1 line even winning both this week.

That’s fair, but who could match 6 top 15 wins right now?
I’m not sure anyone else has three

 

[catsfanbgky]

One of the worst teams in the SEC, SC, nearly beat #1. I know Brohme got injured, but the #1 team should still win. It is a testament that in the SEC, even the bottom feeders per say, can and will beat top tier teams. No nights off is what I am saying. Also, Arkansas WILL be a top team, just not enough of them to get a bid. NIT bound.
What is kind of odd, Oklahoma and Texas, both 0-3 in SEC play.

Bottom 5 :
Oklahoma 0-3 (13-3 overall) - Has wins over Arizona (was ranked), Louisville, and Michigan (Michigan is hot right now)
Texas 0-3 (11-5 overall) - Has not had any big wins, bubble team / NIT
LSU 0-3 (11-5 overall) - Same as Texas, NIT.
Arkansas 0-3 (11-5 overall) - Has the 1 win over Michigan
SC - 0-3 (10-6 overall) - Beat Clemson

Also, Vandy 1-2 (13-3 overall) - Is the other team with a losing record in the SEC, does not have a quality win. I see 11 teams getting in, Arkansas if they have any chance, needs to win at LSU tonight and get some better wins.
Tonight is a loaded SEC schedule. Ole Miss / Bama, Miss. State / Auburn, Texas A&M / UK, Mizzou / Florida. Mizzou with the win over Kansas, but needs some more quad 1 wins. Tough at Florida, but can't get blown out. If Arkansas loses tonight at LSU, there will be more shit hit the fan in Fayetteville. Rightfully so, they have some nice talent on that team, time for them to show it, IF they want to be taken seriously. I do not see it.

 

[Boyd94]

Could make a case for the best wins no doubt, however Ohio State is killing us and Clemson isn’t much better. Cannot just throw the losses out the window unfortunately. Probably will keep them off the 1 line even winning both this week.

Ohio State and Clemson aren't bad losses.

 

[Creed Bratton]

Ohio State and Clemson aren't bad losses.

Losing to a 10-6 team by 20 is a bad loss.

 

[Boyd94]

Losing to a 10-6 team by 20 is a bad loss.

It's a quad 1. Not a bad loss. It's not like losing to Evansville, St. Peter's or Oakland.

 

[Creed Bratton]

It's a quad 1. Not a bad loss. It's not like losing to Evansville, St. Peter's or Oakland.

Those weren't bad losses they were unacceptable losses and thus why that coach no longer roams the sidelines of Rupp Arena.

 

[king of cali]

Ohio State and Clemson aren't bad losses.

Clemson maybe, but getting dump trucked by a mediocre OSU team is a bad loss.

 

[Creed Bratton]

How is Houston who is 0-3 in Quad 1 games 3rd in the NET rankings? Their biggest win since their last loss was BYU.

 

[catsfanbgky]

Losing to a 10-6 team by 20 is a bad loss.

OSU game was a head scratcher. Not losing, but by how much. But their losses are to :
@ #10 Texas A&M
Pitt (12-4) in OT by 1
@ 13-4 Maryland
#1 Auburn
#18 Michigan State
#15 Oregon
So OSU doesn't have a bad loss, all of theirs have came against highly ranked, or to solid / tournament quality, good teams.

 

[fatguy87]

The 1 seeds are shaping up to be the following:

Auburn
Duke
2nd place SEC
B12 champ

 

[Cats192]

I think a 3 is accurate.

Win today and Saturday, you're a strong 2 seed.

 

[Cats192]

The 1 seeds are shaping up to be the following:

Auburn
Duke
2nd place SEC
B12 champ

I'm curious as to how the committee treats Auburn without Broome.

Sometimes a star player misses, and they wipe those games, and only count the games when the star player played.
Sometimes they say tough luck, kids.

 

[Creed Bratton]

OSU game was a head scratcher. Not losing, but by how much. But their losses are to :
@ #10 Texas A&M
Pitt (12-4) in OT by 1
@ 13-4 Maryland
#1 Auburn
#18 Michigan State
#15 Oregon
So OSU doesn't have a bad loss, all of theirs have came against highly ranked, or to solid / tournament quality, good teams.

It's like Cal said about taking 3's you don't have to win all the big games all but you can't lose them all and other than against us and UCLA, which considering Cronins comments isn't a surprise, they have pretty much lost them all.

 

[-BBH-]

They may not be bad losses but they’re certainly hurting our NET, thus our eventual seed.

 

[fatguy87]

I'm curious as to how the committee treats Auburn without Broome.

Sometimes a star player misses, and they wipe those games, and only count the games when the star player played.
Sometimes they say tough luck, kids.

Who can say?

Auburn is dominant with Brooke and probably still good without him. They have enough of a cushion that they will probably be fine going 2-2 if he’s out for those games.

 

[Creed Bratton]

The 1 seeds are shaping up to be the following:

Auburn
Duke
2nd place SEC
B12 champ

Duke will be a 1 seed and possibly the overall 1 due to the fact they may not lose again. Are they one of the top 4 teams in the country? Not in my opinion but going into the tourney with 2-3 losses, even in a horrible ACC conference, will certainly get them a 1 seed.

 

[Skyguyb27]

First team out is Arkansas. Shame.

Real shame. I’d hoped they atleast be 5th out.

 

[Cats192]

I'd take this bracket in a heart beat.

Akron, Wisconsin, Marquette, Alabama (assuming chalk).

 

[travisbickle]

I think another interesting aspect to this loaded SEC is that the Saturday games in the SEC tournament could have much bigger implications for seeding for the NCAA than normal. One of those semifinal matchups could mean the difference in snagging a two seed.

 

[Chief Paducah]

I'm curious as to how the committee treats Auburn without Broome.

Sometimes a star player misses, and they wipe those games, and only count the games when the star player played.
Sometimes they say tough luck, kids.

Only if UK is involved do they say "tough luck, kids"

 

[Boyd94]

Only if UK is involved do they say "tough luck, kids"

You are 100% correct.

 

[HenryMuto]

If play ended today we should be a 2 seed but more than likely would be a 3. We would not be a 4 seed.

Don't tell this guy then who has Kentucky as a 4 seed (#15 overall)

Bracketology 2025: Never overreact to mid-January projections

A surprising number of decent-to-potentially-great teams do not yet have many high-quality wins to go along with their metrics. That should change, but it makes for some weird projections with two months to go before Selection Sunday.

www.bloggingthebracket.com

Seed List​

* indicates auto bid holder

(1) Auburn*, Tennessee, Alabama, Duke*
(2) Iowa State*, Florida, Kansas, Oregon
(3) Michigan*, Illinois, Marquette*, Houston
(4) Texas A&M, Michigan State, Kentucky, Purdue
(5) Gonzaga, Wisconsin, Mississippi State, West Virginia
(6) UConn, Mississippi, Memphis*, Georgia
(7) Louisville, Texas Tech, Arizona, Utah State*
(8) Baylor, Pitt, Ohio State, San Diego State
(9) Maryland, Oklahoma, Clemson, Saint Mary’s*
(10) North Carolina, Nebraska, St. John’s, UCLA
(11) UC Irvine*, Missouri, Creighton (First Four), Arkansas (First Four), Villanova (First Four), UCF (First Four)
(12) McNeese*, Bradley*, Samford*, High Point*
(13) Saint Louis*, Lipscomb*, Northern Colorado*, Princeton*
(14) New Mexico State*, Utah Valley*, Miami (Ohio)*, William & Mary*
(15) Cleveland State*, Bryant*, Marist*, Morehead State*
(16) Omaha*, Old Dominion*, Howard* (First Four), Colgate* (First Four), Southern* (First Four), LIU* (First Four)

 

[HenryMuto]

Funny how we were a 1 seed until losing to Georgia.

I didn't see anyone I respected who had us as a 1 seed before losing to Georgia. They had us as a 2 seed then dropped to a 3 and now back to a 2 at least those I respect.