It will be the year of the "super-team" again, much like 2015 was with UK, Duke, and Wisconsin. If State adds Jackson, they'll also be loaded. Meanwhile Duke is going to be able to run K's spread offense. The key for them will obviously be Giles' development post-injury.
Another big question for Duke might be whether they lose a few unexpected pieces this summer. Grayson Allen should make the jump now before he has to compete with Frank Jackson, Matt Jones, and Kennard. Yes, Allen would start again, but Jackson is a great player and could push him for minutes.
Should Duke and Kentucky matchup sometime in March/April of '17, I like what Gabriel brings defensively on both Tatum and Giles. You're right about the impact of Bolden to some extent. If UK lands him, it gives Kentucky the option of applying yet another mismatch on the floor and allows Cal to use Bam and Gabriel on Giles and Tatum without giving up fouls to Bolden.