Aike’s Model Update - 12/15/24

[Aike]

We were dinged up a little after a shaky but successful week.

Auburn’s performance to date is unprecedented in the time I’ve been doing this. More than ready for the SEC road to take a few bites out of them.

Reminder that a perfect score in this model is a 6. No one has won the tournament in my time doing this without scoring at least 2 going into the tournament.

This time last year, 14 teams were at 2.0 or better, vs. 19 this year. 35 teams were at 1.0 or better this time last year vs. 49 season.

Top team this time last year was Arizona at 4.02. Eventual champ UConn was in 3rd at 2.74.

Here’s the latest:

1. Auburn 5.10
2. Gonzaga 3.66
3. Tennessee 3.61
4. Duke 3.06
5. Iowa St 3.03
6. UConn 2.93
7. Kansas 2.74
8. Houston 2.54
9. Kentucky 2.48
10. Florida 2.33
11. Michigan 2.23
12. Baylor 2.20
13. Alabama 2.14
14. Penn St 2.13
15. Mississippi 2.12
16. Texas Tech 2.10
17. Marquette 2.07
18. Georgia 2.05
19. Mississippi St 2.02
20. Cincinnati 1.98
21. Arkansas 1.96
22. Pittsburgh 1.92
23. Maryland 1.91
24. Michigan St 1.808
25. Oregon 1.807
26. Dayton 1.805
27. Ohio St 1.73
28. St John’s 1.67
29. Arizona 1.63
30. W Virginia 1.57
31. UCLA 1.54
32. Purdue 1.43
33. Missouri 1.42
34. Iowa 1.39
35, Clemson 1.38
36. Oklahoma 1.36
37. Vanderbilt 1.33
38. North Carolina 1.30
39. Illinois 1.24
40. BYU 1.24
46. Texas 1.04
48. Louisville 1.02
49. Texas A&M 1.01
52. Indiana 0.90
64. LSU 0.73
85. South Carolina 0.41

 

[know1]

To my eye, this is a little more realistic to where we actually are at this point. Defense has to improve for us to move up higher.

 

[Aike]

To my eye, this is a little more realistic to where we actually are at this point. Defense has to improve for us to move up higher.

Teams were shooting abnormally poorly against us from three early. Past couple of games that’s flipped.

I do like that much of UL’s production yesterday was coming from 1 on 1 pull up threes rather than from running good action. Some of that is just bad luck.

I would love to see us become a bit more disruptive (deflections/steals) and/or become an elite rebounding team. I think this is the difference between a Sweet 16/Elite 8 season, and a potential Final Four run.

I do love the guts we show toward the end of close games. Push come to shove though, I would prefer that the game not be close vs. depending on gutting it out.

 

[Oldbluefart]

We were dinged up a little after a shaky but successful week.

Auburn’s performance to date is unprecedented in the time I’ve been doing this. More than ready for the SEC road to take a few bites out of them.

Reminder that a perfect score in this model is a 6. No one has won the tournament in my time doing this without scoring at least 2 going into the tournament.

This time last year, 14 teams were at 2.0 or better, vs. 19 this year. 35 teams were at 1.0 or better this time last year vs. 49 season.

Top team this time last year was Arizona at 4.02. Eventual champ UConn was in 3rd at 2.74.

Here’s the latest:

1. Auburn 5.10
2. Gonzaga 3.66
3. Tennessee 3.61
4. Duke 3.06
5. Iowa St 3.03
6. UConn 2.93
7. Kansas 2.74
8. Houston 2.54
9. Kentucky 2.48
10. Florida 2.33
11. Michigan 2.23
12. Baylor 2.20
13. Alabama 2.14
14. Penn St 2.13
15. Mississippi 2.12
16. Texas Tech 2.10
17. Marquette 2.07
18. Georgia 2.05
19. Mississippi St 2.02
20. Cincinnati 1.98
21. Arkansas 1.96
22. Pittsburgh 1.92
23. Maryland 1.91
24. Michigan St 1.808
25. Oregon 1.807
26. Dayton 1.805
27. Ohio St 1.73
28. St John’s 1.67
29. Arizona 1.63
30. W Virginia 1.57
31. UCLA 1.54
32. Purdue 1.43
33. Missouri 1.42
34. Iowa 1.39
35, Clemson 1.38
36. Oklahoma 1.36
37. Vanderbilt 1.33
38. North Carolina 1.30
39. Illinois 1.24
40. BYU 1.24
46. Texas 1.04
48. Louisville 1.02
49. Texas A&M 1.01
52. Indiana 0.90
64. LSU 0.73
85. South Carolina 0.41

Aike; I have a couple questions for you.
Just curious since all this number stuff is not my forte as they say.
Explain Ohio St.; they have two really bad losses.
Duke ahead of UK
Gonzaga staying so high. They have some good wins but also losses on their record.
Thank you for what you do.

 

[the nail at the foul line]

Auburn predicted to title game. Is that the highest you have had anyone ever?

 

[Aike]

Auburn predicted to title game. Is that the highest you have had anyone ever?

It is this deep into the season for sure. That being said, they are bound to come down substantially as they navigate the SEC slate.

I’ve never had a team above a 4 heading into the tournament. Closest was Gonzaga at something like 3.8 in 2019. That year, UVA and Duke were also both at 3+ IIRC.

 

[Aike]

Aike; I have a couple questions for you.
Just curious since all this number stuff is not my forte as they say.
Explain Ohio St.; they have two really bad losses.
Duke ahead of UK
Gonzaga staying so high. They have some good wins but also losses on their record.
Thank you for what you do.

Ohio St also has some big blowout wins likely still padding their stat profile.

Simplest explanation for Duke/Gonzaga is that wins and losses aren’t part of the equation. SOS is. They’ve both just performed better overall than us statistically vs. a tougher schedule.

These numbers right now would suggest that if we met Duke 100 times on a neutral court, they would win 55 and we would win 45.