Aike’s Model Update - 01/12/25

[Aike]

Before I get into the numbers, I think it’s important to put into context what a fantastic season of college basketball we’re watching.

We currently have 7 teams rated as a 3+ in my model. This time last year, there was only 1.

Kentucky lands at number 13 today, but the same score at the same time last year would have been in 7th place. In fact, eventual champ UConn was in 7th at this time last year, with a slightly lower score than Kentucky has currently.

Here’s the latest:

1. Auburn 4.76
2. Duke 3.33
3. Kansas 3.15
4. Tennessee 3.11
5. Michigan 3.07
6. Houston 3.05
7. Iowa St 3.00
8. UConn 2.74
9. Gonzaga 2.58
10. Alabama 2.55
11. Mississippi St 2.51
12. Florida 2.47
13. Kentucky 2.42
14. Arizona 2.41
15. Texas Tech 2.37
16. Marquette 2.20
17. Maryland 2.17
18. Mississippi 2.01
19. St. John’s 1.86
20. Michigan St 1.821
21. Georgia 1.816
22. Illinois 1.75
23. Pittsburgh 1.73
24. Iowa 1.70
25. Purdue 1.65
26. Vanderbilt 1.64
28. Ohio St 1.55
29. Missouri 1.54
31. Arkansas 1.52
32. Clemson 1.50
34. BYU 1.43
36. Texas A&M 1.41
41. N Carolina 1.27
42. Texas 1.26
43. Louisville 1.23
44. Oklahoma 1.18
61. LSU 0.78
62. Indiana 0.77
92. South Carolina 0.33

 

[Wildcats1st]

Before I get into the numbers, I think it’s important to put into context what a fantastic season of college basketball we’re watching.

We currently have 7 teams rated as a 3+ in my model. This time last year, there was only 1.

Kentucky lands at number 13 today, but the same score at the same time last year would have been in 7th place. In fact, eventual champ UConn was in 7th at this time last year, with a slightly lower score than Kentucky has currently.

Here’s the latest:

1. Auburn 4.76
2. Duke 3.33
3. Kansas 3.15
4. Tennessee 3.11
5. Michigan 3.07
6. Houston 3.05
7. Iowa St 3.00
8. UConn 2.74
9. Gonzaga 2.58
10. Alabama 2.55
11. Mississippi St 2.51
12. Florida 2.47
13. Kentucky 2.42
14. Arizona 2.41
15. Texas Tech 2.37
16. Marquette 2.20
17. Maryland 2.17
18. Mississippi 2.01
19. St. John’s 1.86
20. Michigan St 1.821
21. Georgia 1.816
22. Illinois 1.75
23. Pittsburgh 1.73
24. Iowa 1.70
25. Purdue 1.65
26. Vanderbilt 1.64
28. Ohio St 1.55
29. Missouri 1.54
31. Arkansas 1.52
32. Clemson 1.50
34. BYU 1.43
36. Texas A&M 1.41
41. N Carolina 1.27
42. Texas 1.26
43. Louisville 1.23
44. Oklahoma 1.18
61. LSU 0.78
62. Indiana 0.77
92. South Carolina 0.33

The quality has gone up for sure but in kentuckys case better find some defense or be an early out. Popes team did the same last year. When they scored 80s plus they won. They had trouble winning in the 60s-70s. To win a title you have to be able to win games in the 60s or the 90s.

 

[TOMCATS1990]

And KY has beaten 4 of the 12 ahead of them with a chance at beating 3 more. That’s insane

 

[Aike]

The quality has gone up for sure but in kentuckys case better find some defense or be an early out. Popes team did the same last year. When they scored 80s plus they won. They had trouble winning in the 60s-70s. To win a title you have to be able to win games in the 60s or the 90s.

I thought BYU got worn down last year.

Also agree that our defense makes us more vulnerable, but early is subjective.

We are very unlikely to win a title without improved defense. But Sweet 16 wouldn’t be surprising. And Final Four isn’t out of the question.

 

[CatOfDaVille]

I expect that Auburn will come back to the pack a bit over the next couple of weeks assuming Broome misses some games.

 

[Aike]

I expect that Auburn will come back to the pack a bit over the next couple of weeks assuming Broome misses some games.

Would think so.

Duke continues to be a problem. They aren’t slipping, and they have a clear path to a one seed.

No question the media is all in on CF.

 

[SDcatfan13]

Kansas has been playing a lot better the last couple weeks, but I don't see them making it past the Sweet 16.

I don't think they have a lot of depth, and their guards are inconsistent. Teams will look at how Creighton beat them with clogging the lane to slow down Dickinson.

 

[Aike]

Kansas has been playing a lot better the last couple weeks, but I don't see them making it past the Sweet 16.

I don't think they have a lot of depth, and their guards are inconsistent. Teams will look at his Creighton beat them with clogging the land to slow down Dickinson.

I’m all for Kansas losing, unless they’re playing Duke.

 

[KYFOSSIL]

The quality has gone up for sure but in kentuckys case better find some defense or be an early out. Popes team did the same last year. When they scored 80s plus they won. They had trouble winning in the 60s-70s. To win a title you have to be able to win games in the 60s or the 90s.

The comeback grind it out game with Duke gives me hope

 

[Fox2monk]

Before I get into the numbers, I think it’s important to put into context what a fantastic season of college basketball we’re watching.

We currently have 7 teams rated as a 3+ in my model. This time last year, there was only 1.

Kentucky lands at number 13 today, but the same score at the same time last year would have been in 7th place. In fact, eventual champ UConn was in 7th at this time last year, with a slightly lower score than Kentucky has currently.

Here’s the latest:

1. Auburn 4.76
2. Duke 3.33
3. Kansas 3.15
4. Tennessee 3.11
5. Michigan 3.07
6. Houston 3.05
7. Iowa St 3.00
8. UConn 2.74
9. Gonzaga 2.58
10. Alabama 2.55
11. Mississippi St 2.51
12. Florida 2.47
13. Kentucky 2.42
14. Arizona 2.41
15. Texas Tech 2.37
16. Marquette 2.20
17. Maryland 2.17
18. Mississippi 2.01
19. St. John’s 1.86
20. Michigan St 1.821
21. Georgia 1.816
22. Illinois 1.75
23. Pittsburgh 1.73
24. Iowa 1.70
25. Purdue 1.65
26. Vanderbilt 1.64
28. Ohio St 1.55
29. Missouri 1.54
31. Arkansas 1.52
32. Clemson 1.50
34. BYU 1.43
36. Texas A&M 1.41
41. N Carolina 1.27
42. Texas 1.26
43. Louisville 1.23
44. Oklahoma 1.18
61. LSU 0.78
62. Indiana 0.77
92. South Carolina 0.33

Yeah there are some good teams this year for sure. I’m very happy how we are progressing.

 

[Fox2monk]

Kansas has been playing a lot better the last couple weeks, but I don't see them making it past the Sweet 16.

I don't think they have a lot of depth, and their guards are inconsistent. Teams will look at his Creighton beat them with clogging the land to slow down Dickinson.

They are trying a super slow grind it out style and it’s working. They held Cincinnati to 40 points at home. That’s ridiculous. Maybe they try that the rest of the year but they won’t beat great teams scoring 56 or 58 often.

 

[gbl97]

Auburn's number will probably come down over time, but where does their rating rank historically in other seasons with your model, Aike?

 

[BasketBallJunkie-UK]

I can't get grasp on the model presented. Ky has beaten 4 teams ranked ahead of them. Doesn't make sense. UK is the only team to have beaten 4 top 15 teams. The next has only beaten 2. Models like this don't inlucde all the stats. I guess it soley based on permformance not accounting for wins / losses based on quad games.

 

[Aike]

Auburn's number will probably come down over time, but where does their rating rank historically in other seasons with your model, Aike?

It’s easily the best number that I’ve seen this deep into the season. I’ve only been modeling like this since 2019 though.

 

[Aike]

I can't get grasp on the model presented. Ky has beaten 4 teams ranked ahead of them. Doesn't make sense. UK is the only team to have beaten 4 top 15 teams. The next has only beaten 2. Models like this don't inlucde all the stats. I guess it soley based on permformance not accounting for wins / losses based on quad games.

We got clubbed by OSU and by UGA to a degree.

I agree that if I made a model that only counted the games where we played really well, UK would be closer to the top.

 

[bucsrule8872]

The hope with Duke is that crappy coaching bites them in the butt in the tourney.

Not impressed by Scheyer.

 

[Cats192]

If Pope gets us to the 2nd weekend his 1st year, what a great start.

Would love to see a deep run.

 

[kennyskywalker34]

While Kentucky's Defense is far from elite. When you score as much as they do then the opponent is going to get many more poessions in a game.
Add that to the fact the SEC has some really good offences. So it is not as bad as it seems.
They do need to improve. I'm not saying they don't. But with the pace they play at they are bound to give up a lot of points.
Similar to Alabama last year.
While I'm not expecting it. I definitely think UK could be a final 4 team. I don't believe they are a serious title threat though.
Winning 4 games against really good teams is different than winning the final 2 games against elite teams. It's really hard. And College Basketball is really good this year. This UK team would have had a better shot at playing for a title last year vs. This year. IMO.
I'm having a blast watching this team. I really don't get all the negative takes on here. And I'm not talking about the obvious troll takes. I see a lot of negative comments from folks who I truly believe are UK fans.
Way too many fans demand profection. Those days are long gone. A lot of parity in today's game. I mean did anyone ever expect to see the number 1 player sign to play at BYU?

 

[SDcatfan13]

They are trying a super slow grind it out style and it’s working. They held Cincinnati to 40 points at home. That’s ridiculous. Maybe they try that the rest of the year but they won’t beat great teams scoring 56 or 58 often.

Their defense has been strong with year for sure. I think the Big12 has fallen off since last year (Houston is coming on strong) so Kansas will probably only drop 2-3 more this year.

Definitely an interesting matchup against Iowa St. this week, who I think will wear them down with their depth.

 

[UKUGA]

Before I get into the numbers, I think it’s important to put into context what a fantastic season of college basketball we’re watching.

We currently have 7 teams rated as a 3+ in my model. This time last year, there was only 1.

Kentucky lands at number 13 today, but the same score at the same time last year would have been in 7th place. In fact, eventual champ UConn was in 7th at this time last year, with a slightly lower score than Kentucky has currently.

Here’s the latest:

1. Auburn 4.76
2. Duke 3.33
3. Kansas 3.15
4. Tennessee 3.11
5. Michigan 3.07
6. Houston 3.05
7. Iowa St 3.00
8. UConn 2.74
9. Gonzaga 2.58
10. Alabama 2.55
11. Mississippi St 2.51
12. Florida 2.47
13. Kentucky 2.42
14. Arizona 2.41
15. Texas Tech 2.37
16. Marquette 2.20
17. Maryland 2.17
18. Mississippi 2.01
19. St. John’s 1.86
20. Michigan St 1.821
21. Georgia 1.816
22. Illinois 1.75
23. Pittsburgh 1.73
24. Iowa 1.70
25. Purdue 1.65
26. Vanderbilt 1.64
28. Ohio St 1.55
29. Missouri 1.54
31. Arkansas 1.52
32. Clemson 1.50
34. BYU 1.43
36. Texas A&M 1.41
41. N Carolina 1.27
42. Texas 1.26
43. Louisville 1.23
44. Oklahoma 1.18
61. LSU 0.78
62. Indiana 0.77
92. South Carolina 0.33

Georgia at 21.

 

[BasketBallJunkie-UK]

We got clubbed by OSU and by UGA to a degree.

I agree that if I made a model that only counted the games where we played really well, UK would be closer to the top.

If the NCAA Selections were done today, do you really think Kentucky is a 4 seed? Their NCAA resume is probably #1 in the country.

 

[Aike]

If the NCAA Selections were done today, do you really think Kentucky is a 4 seed? Their NCAA resume is probably #1 in the country.

My model has nothing to do with seeding. Odds of advancing in the tournament without prior knowledge of where the team will be seeded.

If they earn a better or worse seed than justified by their metrics, the odds of advancing would shift accordingly.

 

[BasketBallJunkie-UK]

My model has nothing to do with seeding. Odds of advancing in the tournament without prior knowledge of where the team will be seeded.

If they earn a better or worse seed than justified by their metrics, the odds of advancing would shift accordingly.

That's what I thought. There are metrics with seedings....

 

[Aike]

That's what I thought. There are metrics with seedings....

Cool

 

[Bluegrass79]

Duke is relying on Auburn to continue to be good. Lets hope they fall on their face and when Auburn plays us we destroy them.
Duke ain't getting no number one seed

 

[Blueheart32]

Duke is relying on Auburn to continue to be good. Lets hope they fall on their face and when Auburn plays us we destroy them.
Duke ain't getting no number one seed

They're not?? How? Currently ranked #3, and who in the ACC is going to beat them? They are probably the biggest lock for a number 1 seed. Who do you see as the four number ones?

 

[Bluegrass79]

They're not?? How? Currently ranked #3, and who in the ACC is going to beat them? They are probably the biggest lock for a number 1 seed. Who do you see as the four number ones?

Somebody will get them on the road.... twice. Bluegrass Prediction of the week.

I don't know who will be the number one seeds as we got a whole half season to go. I just hope the dookies lose ...as ALWAYS

 

[yabbadabbadoo]

They will make sure Duke keeps winning to ensure a #1 seed for their beloved ACC. Any game on the road when Duke is in a close game, you WILL see help immediately. Can you imagine Flagg and Duke not getting a #1 ?? I can’t. In a season where the SEC is so good, they have to squeeze it in. Albeit, they’ll lose as soon as they play one of the top tier SEC teams, ON A NEUTRAL FLOOR.