Aike’s Model - 12/22/24 Update

[Aike]

Essentially dropped 2 seed lines yesterday, at least mathematically.

Having those Duke and Zags wins in our pocket could go a long way on Selection Sunday, but we better get ready for this SEC war.

We are modeling like a 5 seed currently, in the strongest field in recent memory. Nothing is off the table.

1. Auburn 5.11
2. Tennessee 3.84
3. Gonzaga 3.42
4. Duke 3.20
5. Iowa St 3.00
6. UCONN 2.95
7. Kansas 2.69
8. Maryland 2.66
9. Houston 2.65
10. Florida 2.49
11. Texas Tech 2.46
12. Mississippi St 2.38
13. Georgia 2.29
14. Arizona 2.27
15. Michigan 2.18
16. Baylor 2.17
17. Pittsburgh 2.11
18. Kentucky 2.08
19. Marquette 2.06
20. Cincinnati 2.004
21. Penn St 2.001
22. St John’s 1.971
23. Ohio St 1.968
24. Alabama 1.963
25. Mississippi 1.86
26. Arkansas 1.85
30. Vanderbilt 1.63
31. Texas 1.56
34. Oklahoma 1.396
35. BYU 1.395
36. Missouri 1.386
39. Clemson 1.32
40. Purdue 1.29
42. North Carolina 1.25
44. Louisville 1.12
48. Texas A&M 1.03
54. LSU 0.89
58. Indiana 0.81
85. South Carolina 0.41

 

[HerrosHeroes]

Dang Aike you dropped us further down than the AP will and that's saying something.

 

[Aike]

Dang Aike you dropped us further down than the AP will and that's sayinsomething

Not really. We’ve earned a higher ranking because of win quality. But we aren’t playing that well right now.

 

[GoAndRunIsGoneAndDone]

I agree that we aren't playing up to our current ranking, ATM but I wasn't shocked that we lost yesterday, either.

I looked up our record in the game preceding Christmas break and final exams for the last 10 seasons. We are .500 in those games, with wins over
UL twice,
WKU,
Florida A&M and
UNC in the 38-1 season.

So, not hugely impressive wins aside from UNC, but we were loaded that season. Point being, it's not unusual to lose this game...for whatever respective reasons. I think most of us can think of examples of other teams being upset due to underperforming during the week of Christmas.

I just hope and believe that we will learn from this and respond to it like the veteran team that we are. That said, we played like we were already on Christmas break yesterday. Flat, disorganized and couldn't buy a basket at all. Disappointing, for sure but not terribly unexpected and OSU played great and couldn't miss. Yes, a lot of that was our own fault

Time will tell how we respond but I think we show up with a lot better energy and effort. Our offense is very dependent upon hustle and being in the right place, at the right time. Learning the system is still a work in progress that should improve with effort and time. We've all seen it work and we've seen that Pope is a capable coach.

We're a good team and are just ahead of a slew of SEC teams in your model. The teams ahead of us, have earned it. We find out a lot about this team when we play UF. Win or lose, we find out who we and they, really are.

 

[dckala2]

5 seed sounds about right, the defense is barely top 50 and the team isn’t shooting well. Hopefully they have an eye on the portal and are thinking about next years roster.

A second weeks of the tourney would be fine/success for this year.

 

[Aike]

I agree that we aren't playing up to our current ranking, ATM but I wasn't shocked that we lost yesterday, either.

I looked up our record in the game preceding Christmas break and final exams for the last 10 seasons. We are .500 in those games, with wins over
UL twice,
WKU,
Florida A&M and
UNC in the 38-1 season.

So, not hugely impressive wins aside from UNC, but we were loaded that season. Point being, it's not unusual to lose this game...for whatever respective reasons. I think most of us can think of examples of other teams being upset due to underperforming during the week of Christmas.

I just hope and believe that we will learn from this and respond to it like the veteran team that we are. That said, we played like we were already on Christmas break yesterday. Flat, disorganized and couldn't buy a basket at all. Disappointing, for sure but not terribly unexpected and OSU played great and couldn't miss. Yes, a lot of that was our own fault

Time will tell how we respond but I think we show up with a lot better energy and effort. Our offense is very dependent upon hustle and being in the right place, at the right time. Learning the system is still a work in progress that should improve with effort and time. We've all seen it work and we've seen that Pope is a capable coach.

We're a good team and are just ahead of a slew of SEC teams in your model. The teams ahead of us, have earned it. We find out a lot about this team when we play UF. Win or lose, we find out who we and they, really are.

All fair. I think we are suffering from two key things.

One is that the weight of being at Kentucky, where every game is huge and every move you make is under a microscope is getting to some guys.

Two is that other teams have enough tape on us to know how to attack us on offense and disrupt us defensively.

We have to improve on our counters for two. Currently we have too many guys either giving up on the play too fast, or going their own way too much. Have to turn the corner here, or it will become a long season.

On point one, getting dinged by OSU and going into the brutal SEC might help. Releases some of the pressure that hangs around your neck playing at UK as a projected 1 seed.

You are going to have a tough game every night in the SEC no matter which school you’re playing for. And we more than likely will become the hunter with the way teams like Auburn, Tennessee, and Florida are playing.

This is new territory for basically all of these guys. In a very deep field, we probably aren’t good enough to be a one seed this year. Maybe not even a two seed.

But if we relax and just play, and keep getting better at our craft, there’s no reason we can’t still be a three or four seed type who is a spoiler.

 

[dckala2]

So are these ‘p’ values or what type of distribution model do you use (I get if you don’t want to say too much) I’ve been dabbling into data science/sports modeling as a hobby and am now going through the oreilly “practical statistics for data scientists.” Have got the scraping down through pandas and help from ChatGPT but modeling off the data set is the blue ocean now.

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

We have some real issues and some real limitations. I love this team, but I’m just trying to be realistic. If we get a 4 seed I may be happy.

 

[GoAndRunIsGoneAndDone]

All fair. I think we are suffering from two key things.

One is that the weight of being at Kentucky, where every game is huge and every move you make is under a microscope is getting to some guys.

Two is that other teams have enough tape on us to know how to attack us on offense and disrupt us defensively.

We have to improve on our counters for two. Currently we have too many guys either giving up on the play too fast, or going their own way too much. Have to turn the corner here, or it will become a long season.

On point one, getting dinged by OSU and going into the brutal SEC might help. Releases some of the pressure that hangs around your neck playing at UK as a projected 1 seed.

You are going to have a tough game every night in the SEC no matter which school you’re playing for. And we more than likely will become the hunter with the way teams like Auburn, Tennessee, and Florida are playing.

This is new territory for basically all of these guys. In a very deep field, we probably aren’t good enough to be a one seed this year. Maybe not even a two seed.

But if we relax and just play, and keep getting better at our craft, there’s no reason we can’t still be a three or four seed type who is a spoiler.

Good points. I think we can all agree that we are better than we played yesterday. OSU deserves credit but we did so many things poorly yesterday that were completely our own fault, too.

 

[blackcat714]

The late great Tom Petty said it best Free Falling……

 

[Aike]

The late great Tom Petty said it best Free Falling……

He also said, “I won’t back down.”

 

[GoAndRunIsGoneAndDone]

I don't get all the gloom and doom.

Merry Christmas all!

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

I don't get all the gloom and doom.

Merry Christmas all!

They let a shit team run them off the court and haven’t looked good in a month that’s why

 

[GoAndRunIsGoneAndDone]

They let a shit team run them off the court and haven’t looked good in a month that’s why

We didn't get run off by a shit team yesterday. We WERE the shit team. They were better than us, yesterday. Were they that good or were we that bad. I think both.

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

We didn't get run off by a shit team yesterday. We WERE the shit team. They were better than us, yesterday. Were they that good or were we that bad. I think both.

20 point loss to Ohio state is getting run

 

[BBUK]

Essentially dropped 2 seed lines yesterday, at least mathematically.

Having those Duke and Zags wins in our pocket could go a long way on Selection Sunday, but we better get ready for this SEC war.

We are modeling like a 5 seed currently, in the strongest field in recent memory. Nothing is off the table.

1. Auburn 5.11
2. Tennessee 3.84
3. Gonzaga 3.42
4. Duke 3.20
5. Iowa St 3.00
6. UCONN 2.95
7. Kansas 2.69
8. Maryland 2.66
9. Houston 2.65
10. Florida 2.49
11. Texas Tech 2.46
12. Mississippi St 2.38
13. Georgia 2.29
14. Arizona 2.27
15. Michigan 2.18
16. Baylor 2.17
17. Pittsburgh 2.11
18. Kentucky 2.08
19. Marquette 2.06
20. Cincinnati 2.004
21. Penn St 2.001
22. St John’s 1.971
23. Ohio St 1.968
24. Alabama 1.963
25. Mississippi 1.86
26. Arkansas 1.85
30. Vanderbilt 1.63
31. Texas 1.56
34. Oklahoma 1.396
35. BYU 1.395
36. Missouri 1.386
39. Clemson 1.32
40. Purdue 1.29
42. North Carolina 1.25
44. Louisville 1.12
48. Texas A&M 1.03
54. LSU 0.89
58. Indiana 0.81
85. South Carolina 0.41

You mean model Mug you...

 

[Mike-D]

Essentially dropped 2 seed lines yesterday, at least mathematically.

Having those Duke and Zags wins in our pocket could go a long way on Selection Sunday, but we better get ready for this SEC war.

We are modeling like a 5 seed currently, in the strongest field in recent memory. Nothing is off the table.

1. Auburn 5.11
2. Tennessee 3.84
3. Gonzaga 3.42
4. Duke 3.20
5. Iowa St 3.00
6. UCONN 2.95
7. Kansas 2.69
8. Maryland 2.66
9. Houston 2.65
10. Florida 2.49
11. Texas Tech 2.46
12. Mississippi St 2.38
13. Georgia 2.29
14. Arizona 2.27
15. Michigan 2.18
16. Baylor 2.17
17. Pittsburgh 2.11
18. Kentucky 2.08
19. Marquette 2.06
20. Cincinnati 2.004
21. Penn St 2.001
22. St John’s 1.971
23. Ohio St 1.968
24. Alabama 1.963
25. Mississippi 1.86
26. Arkansas 1.85
30. Vanderbilt 1.63
31. Texas 1.56
34. Oklahoma 1.396
35. BYU 1.395
36. Missouri 1.386
39. Clemson 1.32
40. Purdue 1.29
42. North Carolina 1.25
44. Louisville 1.12
48. Texas A&M 1.03
54. LSU 0.89
58. Indiana 0.81
85. South Carolina 0.41

Yesterday was a 2 seed line loss. Don't lose by 20 to shit teams.

 

[GoAndRunIsGoneAndDone]

20 point loss to Ohio state is getting run

OSU played lights out yesterday and we were terrible. If both teams play like that for the rest of the season, they might well win the B10 and we be last in SEC.

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

OSU played lights out yesterday and we were terrible. If both teams play like that for the rest of the season, they might well win the B10 and we be last in SEC.

Ohio state did not play lights out yesterday, they shot 26 from 3 and Kentucky had a ft advantage. Kentucky just has clear issues that i don’t know can get fixed this year or not.

 

[GoAndRunIsGoneAndDone]

Ohio state did not play lights out yesterday, they shot 26 from 3 and Kentucky had a ft advantage. Kentucky just has clear issues that i don’t know can get fixed this year or not.

They shot above 60% for most all of the game.
We finished at 29.8. Read that again..29.8% from the field. I can shoot better and I'm old! We were 5 of 20 on freakin layups man! It was NOT our day! I do agree that the general trend is downward but that the sample for that is small and early. We are a .500 team over the last 10 years in the game preceding Christmas....and against pretty average opponents. Look it up and stop crying. We're 10-2 and will likely still be a top 10 team tomorrow. I still can't reach the clouds. Maybe you can but it's not because the sky is falling just yet. Overreact much? UF is a litmus test for this team though, win or lose.

 

[the nail at the foul line]

I don't get all the gloom and doom.

Merry Christmas all!

As long as your title is true.... I am good.

I think getting to Sweet 16 this year would be at least equaling expectations if not exceeding.

 

[KY Long Rifle]

Man… that was a significant drop. Weren’t we in the top 10 in your model before the game?

 

[Aike]

Man… that was a significant drop. Weren’t we in the top 10 in your model before the game?

9 last time I ran it.

 

[KY Long Rifle]

Ouch… but we fell a long way in Kenpom and the NET, too, so it lines up.

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

They shot above 60% for most all of the game.
We finished at 29.8. Read that again..29.8% from the field. I can shoot better and I'm old! We were 5 of 20 on freakin layups man! It was NOT our day! I do agree that the general trend is downward but that the sample for that is small and early. We are a .500 team over the last 10 years in the game preceding Christmas....and against pretty average opponents. Look it up and stop crying. We're 10-2 and will likely still be a top 10 team tomorrow. I still can't reach the clouds. Maybe you can but it's not because the sky is falling just yet. Overreact much? UF is a litmus test for this team though, win or lose.

All those games were with a different coaching staff genius, look it up and stop crying. Ohio state is a bad team and Kentucky got exposed some Saturday. Kentucky couldn’t guard Bruce thorton, what makes people think they can guard Clayton, Martin and Richard? And on the shooting percentages how many games is gonna take before we just accept Kentucky ain’t a good shooting team.

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

All those games were with a different coaching staff genius, look it up and stop crying. Ohio state is a bad team and Kentucky got exposed some Saturday. Kentucky couldn’t guard Bruce thorton, what makes people think they can guard Clayton, Martin and Richard? And on the shooting percentages how many games is gonna take before we just accept Kentucky ain’t a good shooting team.

I’m somewhat with you here. I don’t want to say shy is falling, but to act like we don’t have glairing limitations is just not accurate. We were exposed, yes, but before yesterday. OSU just used what they saw in a few games before. On top of that we played like garbage, had no energy (which is one of our biggest issues more than just yesterday), and basically just didn’t care. It was eye opening. I don’t care what anyone says, athleticism is going to be a major problem for this team, and there is tons of it on the horizon.

 

[UK67KU59]

I said in another post I’ve lowered my expectations for this team to be a 4-7 seed so this tracks. We’ve been consistently getting worse since Georgia state, although that 2nd half at Gonzaga was a positive blip.

 

[Aike]

All those games were with a different coaching staff genius, look it up and stop crying. Ohio state is a bad team and Kentucky got exposed some Saturday. Kentucky couldn’t guard Bruce thorton, what makes people think they can guard Clayton, Martin and Richard? And on the shooting percentages how many games is gonna take before we just accept Kentucky ain’t a good shooting team.

Ohio St isn’t a bad team. That’s an overreaction.

 

[Fancatstik]

He also said, “I won’t back down.”

He also said, “End of the line”.

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

Ohio St isn’t a bad team. That’s an overreaction.

They aren’t very good man. They have 2 good guards and a bunch of meh after that. It’s a bad loss by Kentucky, especially by 20. Kentucky for sure has chances to recover but the recent play isn’t leaving much confidence

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

I’m somewhat with you here. I don’t want to say shy is falling, but to act like we don’t have glairing limitations is just not accurate. We were exposed, yes, but before yesterday. OSU just used what they saw in a few games before. On top of that we played like garbage, had no energy (which is one of our biggest issues more than just yesterday), and basically just didn’t care. It was eye opening. I don’t care what anyone says, athleticism is going to be a major problem for this team, and there is tons of it on the horizon.

Agree. The athleticism is going to kill this group, but I can’t forgive the first shot, especially to a bunch of guys in their last year of college ball. But I will say this until the season ends, the lack of shot creation makes defending this group very easy, and combine that with 2 bigs who every coach in America knows aren’t threats, and you have teams defending uk the way they are.

 

[Aike]

They aren’t very good man. They have 2 good guards and a bunch of meh after that. It’s a bad loss by Kentucky, especially by 20. Kentucky for sure has chances to recover but the recent play isn’t leaving much confidence

I have them rated 23. I consider that a good team. I’ll take that over your griping.