http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/kentucky/2016.html (BPM is +/- now)
Check where Willis is in BPM and True FG%... just sayin'...
Check where Willis is in BPM and True FG%... just sayin'...
Advanced Stat-a-palooza
- Thread starter StubbornPenny
- Start date
Also from another source
Willis has an offensive rating of 123.8, the highest on the team. Alex checks in at 120.8 and Ulis at 119.9
That being said, Willis only uses 17.7% of the possessions when he's in. His offensive efficiency numbers would no doubt go down if he was using more possessions.
All of this and let's be honest, the issue isn't offense. His defense is terrible.
Willis has an offensive rating of 123.8, the highest on the team. Alex checks in at 120.8 and Ulis at 119.9
That being said, Willis only uses 17.7% of the possessions when he's in. His offensive efficiency numbers would no doubt go down if he was using more possessions.
All of this and let's be honest, the issue isn't offense. His defense is terrible.
Agreed, though by the stats on sports-reference, not bad enough to discount his offensive contributions. In fact, so long as he's getting rebounds (like the other night), I could probably live with the defense if he's playing hard. That being said, he should and can be much much better.
Yeah looking at that page again his defensive rating is 96.6, third on the team behind Lee and Alex.
I don't know tho. I feel like defensive stats have a long way to go. These numbers are derived from box scores.
What I used to do a few years ago was actually watch all defensive possessions and chart them. Then use the formula for defensive rating. I feel like that's really the best way.
did ya'll know our very own deandre liggins has the greatest single season in nba history according to advanced stats?
- Liggins's PER—129.1—is the highest single-season mark in NBA history.
- His wins shares per 48 minutes—2.123—is the highest mark of all time, and almost 50 percent higher than the second-highest mark
- Extrapolating from that figure, a season of off-the-bench 2013-14 Liggins (20 min. per game) would be worth approximately 72.5 wins, enough to top the 95-96 Bulls.
Honestly, Lee and Alex both kill the idea of being better defensively because of their fouling.
did ya'll know our very own deandre liggins has the greatest single season in nba history according to advanced stats?
- Liggins's PER—129.1—is the highest single-season mark in NBA history.
- His wins shares per 48 minutes—2.123—is the highest mark of all time, and almost 50 percent higher than the second-highest mark
- Extrapolating from that figure, a season of off-the-bench 2013-14 Liggins (20 min. per game) would be worth approximately 72.5 wins, enough to top the 95-96 Bulls.
Wow I didn't know that. I don't follow the NBA but I guess it's not so surprising considering how good defensively he was at UK
Yeah doesn't really help us to be good defensively if you're constantly fouling lol. U can't give us anything from the bench lol
That may happen, but there is no law that states an decrease in TS% must follow an increase in usage. Really, that's only true if he's already maximizing quality shots/free throw opportunities.
In fact, is it not plausible that both his TS% and usage would go up if plays were designed to get him good looks? Perhaps he is passing up on good shooting opportunities now because of his defined role.
Keep in mind this is because he played one minute of a real NBA game. He scored a basket and grabbed two rebounds, I think. Extrapolate that and he's the highest ranked PER ever.. Because extrapolated over a whole game, that's 96ppg and 192 rebs! But in real life, he had one good minute in a mop up game.
But hey, that's one more good minute than the rest of us will ever have!
that gif i posted was his entire 2013/14 season. the magic of advanced stats....
This is true. I probably shouldn't speak in absolutes.
I am of the opinion tho that it would go down.
Well done. Lies, damned lies......did ya'll know our very own deandre liggins has the greatest single season in nba history according to advanced stats?
- Liggins's PER—129.1—is the highest single-season mark in NBA history.
- His wins shares per 48 minutes—2.123—is the highest mark of all time, and almost 50 percent higher than the second-highest mark
- Extrapolating from that figure, a season of off-the-bench 2013-14 Liggins (20 min. per game) would be worth approximately 72.5 wins, enough to top the 95-96 Bulls.
According to Synergy, which all the stats from there are based on actual film study and not just box score stats, Willis is allowing 1.015 points per possession. 1.015 ranks in the bottom 15% of division I. Offensively he is scoring 1.094 points per possession, which ranks in the top 7%, but over 70 possessions, which is the pace Kentucky plays at according to Pomeroy, he is only outscoring his opponent by 5.53 points.
The +/- for each of the other regular to semiregular rotation players based on points per possession scored and allowed, listed by offensive PPP, defensive PPP, +/- per 70 possessions
Poythress: 1.072, 0.592, +33.6
Lee: 1.023, 0.683, +23.8
Hawkins: 0.993, 0.675, +22.26
Ulis: 0.907, 0.768, +9.73
Briscoe: 0.76, 0.662, +6.86
Murray: 0.932, 0.86, +5.04
Skal: 0.956, 0.917, +2.73
Humphries: 0.714, 0.818, -7.28
Matthews: 0.75, 0.889, -9.73
Mulder: 0.667, 1.071, -28.28
Notice two of the players so many people keep clamoring for ar enet negatives in Humphries and Mulder, and Mulder ranks in the bottom 14% for offense and the bottom 9% for defense. He has truly performed awful in all over the entirety of the season.
That is why Briscoe, Poythress, and Lee have continued to play over the likes of Mulder, Matthews, and Willis - elite defenders most of the time and defense is what gets you minutes at Kentucky.
And keep in mind, these are all offensive and defensive possessions that have directly involved them, not just every possession in which they happen to be on the court.
The +/- for each of the other regular to semiregular rotation players based on points per possession scored and allowed, listed by offensive PPP, defensive PPP, +/- per 70 possessions
Poythress: 1.072, 0.592, +33.6
Lee: 1.023, 0.683, +23.8
Hawkins: 0.993, 0.675, +22.26
Ulis: 0.907, 0.768, +9.73
Briscoe: 0.76, 0.662, +6.86
Murray: 0.932, 0.86, +5.04
Skal: 0.956, 0.917, +2.73
Humphries: 0.714, 0.818, -7.28
Matthews: 0.75, 0.889, -9.73
Mulder: 0.667, 1.071, -28.28
Notice two of the players so many people keep clamoring for ar enet negatives in Humphries and Mulder, and Mulder ranks in the bottom 14% for offense and the bottom 9% for defense. He has truly performed awful in all over the entirety of the season.
That is why Briscoe, Poythress, and Lee have continued to play over the likes of Mulder, Matthews, and Willis - elite defenders most of the time and defense is what gets you minutes at Kentucky.
And keep in mind, these are all offensive and defensive possessions that have directly involved them, not just every possession in which they happen to be on the court.
+1, I'll have to check that site out. I'm a junkie for advanced stats. These look a lot more in line with what I see on the court, too. If Lee or Poy can even score a little, their ratings would be outrageous.
I don't think the general fan can sign up for that website. It's market is teams and the media.
I know some folks. I normally like a lot of detail with basketball stats, but this Synergy stuff is like information overload. It's insane how much they break it down. It can be pretty insightful too. For one team I follow, I thought player A and B were pretty good defenders, somehow one of them actually rates out as the worst on the team!. But what's great is the login gives me access to the data for every single team within its database
Yeah it's crazy the amount of data they have. I would spent the majority of my day going through all that video.
I've been wanting access for so long. I think they had it where the general public could look at the NBA data they have but I think they even did away with that option. I guess with schools and teams paying money for it, they probably won't open it to the public unfortunately.
According to those same stats, so is Murray.
One of Willis' biggest issues is that he's been asked to guard an athletic 6'5 guard/wing vs MSU and Ben Simmons. Both of these guys made him look bad, as they would against pretty much anyone. Willis isn't athletic enough to guard a big guard/wing 1-on-1 on the permieter and no one on our team (nor many in the country) can check Simmons. Yet after both games people were throwing flames at Willis for his performance.
Yes, Willis can certainly improve on defense, but he brings something this team desperately needs, and that's someone who can make a shot. You can pick and choose stats to fit your agenda (both sides of the Willis battle have done so in this thread), but in the end he's pretty much the yin to Lee's yang. A guy who is adequate at best on D (though much better last game) and one of our better players for sure on O.
So according to Synergy, our two best offensive players are Poythress and Lee?
Can you please explain this?
Because whether this board wants to believe it or not, they absolutely crush their opponents defensively, and their shots are all extremely high percentage. Well maybe not Poy as much, but he makes up for it with free throws, while Lee just never takes a shot beyond 2 feet. Them scoring 11 and giving up 4 is net better than someone else scoring 20 and giving up 18. This is why Cal is defense obsessed and plays these kind of guys above better shooters.
I'm sure the numbers are exacerbated by them fouling out - if they aren't in the game, they can't have scores counted against them and conversely, they make the most of those limited minutes. More time means less efficiency. Alex and Lee seem to score well... on the possessions they're actually in the game.
That being said, you can't have a whole roster of mega efficient guys, because those shots are rarely available.
Kenpom offensive ratings also agree about Poy. There's more to it then just scoring points. He's our second best rebounder on offense, turns it over the least out of the significant contributors and has the best 2 pt FG% out of everyone on the team.
Points per possession, it's not points per Kentucky possession, it's points per individual possession. It's sky high for both of them because whenever they shoot it's always dunks and layups, which are high percentage shots, and they thus also don't turn over the ball much. They just don't use many offensive possessions. If they used more their points per possession would no doubt be smaller.
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A word of caution when looking at efficiency ratings at the player level as opposed to the team. It's only going to factor in possessions where Willis takes the shot
Do you have the ability to look at offensive and defensive efficiency for the team as a whole during possessions when a player is on the court versus the bench? For example, what is UK's efficiency when Willis is on the court versus off?
Per the points you've raised, I've never seen much value in player level efficiency stats. It evaluates a small subset of a player's impact.
(This is not intended to describe Willis). A good example would be a player who takes only a few open shots per game, never turns the ball over, has a high field goal percentage, and is terrible at making cuts and setting screens. This player would have a very high efficiency rating, but could actually make the team's efficiency much lower because they hamper the ability to execute the offense.
Same can happen on defense. A player may be awful at defending, but their defensive breakdowns result in the players their teammates are defending being the ones to score. This can result in the poorer defender actually having a higher efficiency.
I'd be much more interested in seeing how the team's efficiency changes based on each player's status (i.e., on the court versus on the bench).
That is essentially the definition of +/-, which is available on basketball reference. But no it doesn't have that as that as Synergy is designed essentially for scouting and that really doesn't have any use for scouting purposes.
Is this correct?
I'm was under the impression that it factors other things as well. For example, say Willis doesn't take a shot but instead turns it over.......or maybe he grabs an offensive rebound. I thought it factored all of that.
I could be wrong tho
No, individual efficiency ratings don't factor in what others do as that is not what the individual player does.
But it does factor in a turnover to the individual player, just as Answer suggested.
Yeah looking at basketball reference appears it factors turnovers and shooting but not rebounding.
I guess that makes sense. If Willis rebounds the ball and someone else scores, you run into the question of how much credit do you give to the shooter and how much to the rebounder.
Similar to baseball. When a ball is hit how much credit do you give the fielders and how much credit the pitcher.
I guess that makes sense. If Willis rebounds the ball and someone else scores, you run into the question of how much credit do you give to the shooter and how much to the rebounder.
Similar to baseball. When a ball is hit how much credit do you give the fielders and how much credit the pitcher.
Yes, that's correct. That was part of the post I replied to, not what I wrote. Not sure why the formatting showed up that way.
It will include any possession a player uses. A player is generally considered to have used the possession when the possession ends as a result of an action that player took. This would include making a basket, missing a shot resulting in a defensive rebound, drawing a foul resulting in free throws or turning the ball over.
What it will not include, is that player's impact on a possession where a teammate ended the possession. So, for example, if you screw up a cut that results in a missed pass turnover, it gets credited solely to the person making the pass.
Not quite. Plus minus is the net of the two. It will not tell you how the gap was achieved. For example, one player may have tremendous positive impact on defensive efficiency but also bring down offensive efficiency slightly. Another player might dramatically improve offensive efficiency while also slightly decreasing defensive efficiency.
Their plus minuses could end up the same, however you lose sight to the manner in which they impacted the game. I'm interested in the efficiencies for that reason, to see if perception matches reality.
I believe the underlying philosophy is that an offensive rebound extends a possession, as opposed to uses a possession. The distinction is that any action that results in the change of possession to the other team is how they determine who used the possession.
