We have spoken quite frequently on possible scenarios for next season's roster. The main topics of conversation have revolved around who could be the newcomers and which Wildcats might leave early for he NBA Draft.
In regards to the latter, we have spoken mostly about Ashton Hagans and Tyler Herro. While we have addressed E.J. Montgomery and Nick Richards to a degree, we have said that we would be surprised if both are not back. We considered it a given that P.J. Washington and Keldon Johnson have played their last games in a Kentucky uniform.
Today, Johnson said that he is "testing the waters." That was no surprise whatsoever, but his explanation and hopes were open ended in his statement, and tantalizing as well.
"I've sat down with my family and Coach Cal and determined that testing the waters and getting information back from the NBA is the best thing for me at this time. My hope is to be a lottery pick. If I am, I plan on pursuing my dreams and staying in the draft, but I want to go through the process first and get the correct information."
Incredibly interesting. We have deemed Johnson to be a go since day one. The initial NBA Mock Draft projections put him in the teens as soon as the models began. Although, it isn't always a given, a freshman who is rated that high is generally considered a lock to go to the league. But what he said and didn't say in his statement gives me some second thoughts.
First, his "hope is to be a lottery pick." There are fourteen lottery spots in the first round. Jonathan Givony currently has him projected at No. 19. That is safely in the first round where he would receive guaranteed money, but five spots out of the lottery listings. Interestingly enough, is that of the four players that stand between him, P.J. Washington is No. 15 and Tyler Herro is 17. Nassir Little of North Carolina comes in at No. 16, and Rui Hachimura of Gonzaga is No. 18.
Johnson still has the Draft Combine in front of him and he will have plenty of opportunities to move his way up. His current standing is not etched in stone. That is where he will get his information from the league. So the next question is will he stay if he is led to believe he will not go in the lottery?
That is the million dollar question. It is also one that he did not answer. One could go so far to say that in the statement, Johnson only promised that he would stay in if indeed he did go in the first fourteen picks. That leads to the importance of further information he will receive. If he were to come back for one more season, what are the chances he could go in the lottery next year? If he is led to believe that he could, would he come back for one more season? if he didn't get a good vibe would be chance it and come back anyway?
Finally, one might ask why we have put more emphasis on Herro coming back rather than Johnson. Herro didn't start out with the respect among NBA people that he has now. In fact, when the projections began he wasn't even listed as an option in the first two rounds while Johnson was in the teens. Around the beginning of the SEC season, Herro jumped into the forties. He jumped into the low twenties late in the regular season, and then reached his highest point last Monday at seventeen. The odds really never swung in the direction of Herro going pro until well into the league schedule.
Meanwhile, Johnson may have kind of crested. He is still expected to stay in the draft, but it isn't as much of a done deal as we have thought all along. In fact, it is a situation that we will watch a little more closely in May.
In regards to the latter, we have spoken mostly about Ashton Hagans and Tyler Herro. While we have addressed E.J. Montgomery and Nick Richards to a degree, we have said that we would be surprised if both are not back. We considered it a given that P.J. Washington and Keldon Johnson have played their last games in a Kentucky uniform.
Today, Johnson said that he is "testing the waters." That was no surprise whatsoever, but his explanation and hopes were open ended in his statement, and tantalizing as well.
"I've sat down with my family and Coach Cal and determined that testing the waters and getting information back from the NBA is the best thing for me at this time. My hope is to be a lottery pick. If I am, I plan on pursuing my dreams and staying in the draft, but I want to go through the process first and get the correct information."
Incredibly interesting. We have deemed Johnson to be a go since day one. The initial NBA Mock Draft projections put him in the teens as soon as the models began. Although, it isn't always a given, a freshman who is rated that high is generally considered a lock to go to the league. But what he said and didn't say in his statement gives me some second thoughts.
First, his "hope is to be a lottery pick." There are fourteen lottery spots in the first round. Jonathan Givony currently has him projected at No. 19. That is safely in the first round where he would receive guaranteed money, but five spots out of the lottery listings. Interestingly enough, is that of the four players that stand between him, P.J. Washington is No. 15 and Tyler Herro is 17. Nassir Little of North Carolina comes in at No. 16, and Rui Hachimura of Gonzaga is No. 18.
Johnson still has the Draft Combine in front of him and he will have plenty of opportunities to move his way up. His current standing is not etched in stone. That is where he will get his information from the league. So the next question is will he stay if he is led to believe he will not go in the lottery?
That is the million dollar question. It is also one that he did not answer. One could go so far to say that in the statement, Johnson only promised that he would stay in if indeed he did go in the first fourteen picks. That leads to the importance of further information he will receive. If he were to come back for one more season, what are the chances he could go in the lottery next year? If he is led to believe that he could, would he come back for one more season? if he didn't get a good vibe would be chance it and come back anyway?
Finally, one might ask why we have put more emphasis on Herro coming back rather than Johnson. Herro didn't start out with the respect among NBA people that he has now. In fact, when the projections began he wasn't even listed as an option in the first two rounds while Johnson was in the teens. Around the beginning of the SEC season, Herro jumped into the forties. He jumped into the low twenties late in the regular season, and then reached his highest point last Monday at seventeen. The odds really never swung in the direction of Herro going pro until well into the league schedule.
Meanwhile, Johnson may have kind of crested. He is still expected to stay in the draft, but it isn't as much of a done deal as we have thought all along. In fact, it is a situation that we will watch a little more closely in May.
