You’re very good at this stuff.RPIs for OOC opponents:
USC Upstate - 85 - Upstate went 38-22 (21-6) last year. Did not make the tournament as they lost to Campbell in the Big South tournament.
Morehead State - 116 - 35-20 (16-7) a year ago. No tournament, lost in Ohio Valley Champ game.
Texas State - 60 - 36-23 (17-13) - No tournament
Washington State - 93 - 28-23 (10-19) - No tournament
Kansas - 110 - 25-32 (8-16) - No tournament
Western Kentucky - 138 - 33-26 (16-14) - No tournament
Lipscomb - 90 - 36-26 (23-7) - Clemson Regional
Eastern Kentucky - 178 - 29-30 (15-15) - No tournament
Kennesaw State - 163 - 25-29 (14-16) - No tournament
Murray State - 171 - 31-28 (14-13) - No tournament
Evansville - 72 - 37-24 (15-12) - No tournament
Miami (OH) - 245 - 21-31 (13-17) - No tournament
Louisville - 44 - 31-24 (10-20) - No tournament
Samford - 62 - 37-25 (15-6) - Auburn Regional
Xavier - 42 - 39-25 (14-7) - Nashville Regional
Wright State - 80 - 39-23 (22-8) - Terre Haute Regional
That is an average RPI of 109, or about 110 if you take into account per game.
Pretty bland OOC schedule. No marquee matchups. Play a few tournament teams but almost all of those are in one game sets. Some of those 1 game ones (such as Samford) are on the road, so are there to be RPI padding. Basically looks to me like once again we're trying to get a really strong RPI by playing kind of a consistently decent schedule. There isn't anything in this OOC schedule that is outright scary, but there are also only a few teams that are so down in the RPI column that you can only roll your eyes at them. I imagine, along with our strong conference schedule we will again have a pretty solid RPI. Not my favorite schedule in the world, but they built this to win games and to get that high RPI, so I imagine that is what we will see by end of season.
You’re very good at this stuff.
What’s your way too early prediction and thoughts on the upcoming season?
Will we be an improved team over last year’s over achieving group?
Wonderful.Offensively I think you will see the same style of play. I think Mignione likes to play a small ball type of style, so I don't think that we will move off of that much. So, you will still probably see a lot of bunting and stealing and putting pressure on defenses that way. However, I think it is quite possible as well that you see a bit more power capability out of this group. McCoy and McCarthy I think are two that have increased some of their power capability this fall and Nicholson brings a pretty big bat. Also have a few transfers with big HR numbers, if they can translate that to better baseball. I think there has been talk that Waldy has hit for some more power as well.
I think they will probably be somewhat better defensively. If Smith is healthy then Daly is likely playing over at third and that is an improvement there. Nicholson, I think, is going to be at first. That could be a defensive step back, but in large part because Gilliam was a vaccum last year and not because Nicholson can't be a solid 1B. The OF will be a bit bigger this year with McCarthy likely in C and McCoy in right and Waldy still in left. Maybe not quite the range of Gray, but still a group that can get it done out there. Don't think they will be winning a ton of gold gloves out there, but definitely wouldn't run on McCoy's arm.
On the mound... have to really like Moore and Smith and feel pretty comfortable with them going on Friday/Saturday. Still, there are some questions there. Can Moore translate to being a starter? I don't think he got a start last year (at least states don't indicate he did). So, will he be comfortable in that role or does someone else need to fill that and we continue to use him as a long reliever type? What strides does Smith take in his second year? A 5.28 ERA certainly isn't bad, but you want that number to be better for a starter, especially if we might look for him to be a Friday night guy. I would expect a step forward, but sophomore slumps are a thing as well. Still, I would say this is most comfortable I have been going into a season in a while given that we have 2 very promising guys that we can pencil into those roles.
I would think Niman is that third starter with his high K to walk ratio. Hagenow remains a candidate if he can find consistency. However, they may prefer him in that long reliever type role, as he did pretty well in that last year.
I think the key will be whether or not we can find enough guys to come out and eat innings. Last year we had that. We didn't really have anyone that came out and was just entirely unreliable. Still, the scary part is that we lost a guy like Strickland who ate up 55+ innings out of the bullpen. Who can replace him? We lost Williams, who had almost 70 innings and was a shut down long reliever. So, do we see some guys take steps forward to become those big inning eaters, or does a transfer or two step up? Roszel has done an amazing job finding and developing the right guys to make it work, so I trust that he can do it again, but I think the bullpen is the biggest question mark we have for this team this season.
All in all, I would expect us to look very similar and to have some similar results. I would call our OOC schedule 'manageably difficult.' By that, I mean that we aren't playing a lot of teams with RPIs above 200 so there are few to no absolute cakewalk teams that we can just sleep on, but there also aren't any teams that you really circle as being a huge threat. Even some of the more difficult ones are weekday matchups (Xavier and Samford), so we won't be facing some of their better pitching on those nights. I think it is kind of the basketball equivalent to playing a team like St. Joes most of the time. We aren't playing the top teams like UNC, Miami or Kansas, but we also aren't playing many Stonehill type teams. So, I think we can take care of business in the OOC and would not expect us to lose many of those games and don't expect to drop an OOC series.
Our early conference schedule could not be more favorable if we had wished for it upon a star. We get to play 3 of the worst 4 SEC teams from a year ago. If we don't leave those weekends with at least a 6-3 record it will be a major disappointment. Then we get Bama at home. Bama is weird. They struggled for a time last year during league play and seemed to turn it around with the coaching change to end up with 16 wins. They went 7-2 under the interim head coach. They now have a new HC and Jackson goes back to assistant. I think being at home we could still take 2 of these. Then things start to get tricky as we go to Auburn, get Tennessee, and go to a resurging South Carolina. I would say these three series will be a dog fight as I imagine all of these teams will be fighting in the middle of the SEC pack. Get out of that at 4-5 and we're doing pretty good given that we are on the road in two of three. Then it is Arkansas. It is at home, but whew... they are always a solid squad. Get a win at home at least. At this point, I think we'd be at 13 wins with 2 series left. Just steal one win from each weekend and we're easily in the NCAA tournament with a strong RPI.
Wonderful.
How do you know all this UK baseball info? Affiliated with the team?
You ought to get paid by the HL, UK or KSR with such a great in-depth analysis
I’m a wait and see on McCoy. He has the potential and power to really do something but from what I’ve seen of him in person, he gets overpowered easily. Hopefully he’s adjusted to the SEC and will make a splash.Offensively I think you will see the same style of play. I think Mignione likes to play a small ball type of style, so I don't think that we will move off of that much. So, you will still probably see a lot of bunting and stealing and putting pressure on defenses that way. However, I think it is quite possible as well that you see a bit more power capability out of this group. McCoy and McCarthy I think are two that have increased some of their power capability this fall and Nicholson brings a pretty big bat. Also have a few transfers with big HR numbers, if they can translate that to better baseball. I think there has been talk that Waldy has hit for some more power as well.
I think they will probably be somewhat better defensively. If Smith is healthy then Daly is likely playing over at third and that is an improvement there. Nicholson, I think, is going to be at first. That could be a defensive step back, but in large part because Gilliam was a vaccum last year and not because Nicholson can't be a solid 1B. The OF will be a bit bigger this year with McCarthy likely in C and McCoy in right and Waldy still in left. Maybe not quite the range of Gray, but still a group that can get it done out there. Don't think they will be winning a ton of gold gloves out there, but definitely wouldn't run on McCoy's arm.
On the mound... have to really like Moore and Smith and feel pretty comfortable with them going on Friday/Saturday. Still, there are some questions there. Can Moore translate to being a starter? I don't think he got a start last year (at least states don't indicate he did). So, will he be comfortable in that role or does someone else need to fill that and we continue to use him as a long reliever type? What strides does Smith take in his second year? A 5.28 ERA certainly isn't bad, but you want that number to be better for a starter, especially if we might look for him to be a Friday night guy. I would expect a step forward, but sophomore slumps are a thing as well. Still, I would say this is most comfortable I have been going into a season in a while given that we have 2 very promising guys that we can pencil into those roles.
I would think Niman is that third starter with his high K to walk ratio. Hagenow remains a candidate if he can find consistency. However, they may prefer him in that long reliever type role, as he did pretty well in that last year.
I think the key will be whether or not we can find enough guys to come out and eat innings. Last year we had that. We didn't really have anyone that came out and was just entirely unreliable. Still, the scary part is that we lost a guy like Strickland who ate up 55+ innings out of the bullpen. Who can replace him? We lost Williams, who had almost 70 innings and was a shut down long reliever. So, do we see some guys take steps forward to become those big inning eaters, or does a transfer or two step up? Roszel has done an amazing job finding and developing the right guys to make it work, so I trust that he can do it again, but I think the bullpen is the biggest question mark we have for this team this season.
All in all, I would expect us to look very similar and to have some similar results. I would call our OOC schedule 'manageably difficult.' By that, I mean that we aren't playing a lot of teams with RPIs above 200 so there are few to no absolute cakewalk teams that we can just sleep on, but there also aren't any teams that you really circle as being a huge threat. Even some of the more difficult ones are weekday matchups (Xavier and Samford), so we won't be facing some of their better pitching on those nights. I think it is kind of the basketball equivalent to playing a team like St. Joes most of the time. We aren't playing the top teams like UNC, Miami or Kansas, but we also aren't playing many Stonehill type teams. So, I think we can take care of business in the OOC and would not expect us to lose many of those games and don't expect to drop an OOC series.
Our early conference schedule could not be more favorable if we had wished for it upon a star. We get to play 3 of the worst 4 SEC teams from a year ago. If we don't leave those weekends with at least a 6-3 record it will be a major disappointment. Then we get Bama at home. Bama is weird. They struggled for a time last year during league play and seemed to turn it around with the coaching change to end up with 16 wins. They went 7-2 under the interim head coach. They now have a new HC and Jackson goes back to assistant. I think being at home we could still take 2 of these. Then things start to get tricky as we go to Auburn, get Tennessee, and go to a resurging South Carolina. I would say these three series will be a dog fight as I imagine all of these teams will be fighting in the middle of the SEC pack. Get out of that at 4-5 and we're doing pretty good given that we are on the road in two of three. Then it is Arkansas. It is at home, but whew... they are always a solid squad. Get a win at home at least. At this point, I think we'd be at 13 wins with 2 series left. Just steal one win from each weekend and we're easily in the NCAA tournament with a strong RPI.
I’m a wait and see on McCoy. He has the potential and power to really do something but from what I’ve seen of him in person, he gets overpowered easily. Hopefully he’s adjusted to the SEC and will make a splash.
Preseason Top 25 Rankings
While the athletes haven’t even reported back to campus after winter break, we are only six short weeks away from the 2024 Opening Weekend. The parity across the landscape of college baseball continues to grow and this made our pre-season poll this year that much more challenging.www.perfectgame.org
Was thinking UK might get a preseason ranking. SEC is just a hard row to hoe in baseball, like in most sports. I am hoping 2023 was not a fluke and we will have another good team and season.
National writers are not going to give UK anything until its annually in the tournament. The one preseason ranking out is same 'ole, same 'ole. Same teams, different spots. Legit, knowledgeable college baseball coverage is still, by and large, nothing but surface level coverage of the historically good programs, IMHO.Was thinking UK might get a preseason ranking. SEC is just a hard row to hoe in baseball, like in most sports. I am hoping 2023 was not a fluke and we will have another good team and season.