Following the football program's second straight collapse on the back half of the schedule there's been a lot of talk about the future of the Mark Stoops era. Now that some time has elapsed, let's try to summarize what's happened, where we're at and where the ship's heading without wading too deep into the waters of controversy. For my purposes here I'll acknowledge the most mainstream 'sides' in any disagreement in the hopes of finding some common ground and to generate some discussion.
The Challenges
The schedule next year is tough. Unfortunately for Stoops, getting to a bowl game in his fourth year isn't going to be easy. It can certainly happen (much stranger things have happened), but the schedule is tougher next year than it was this year.
Reason for hope: My response to that, if you're looking for a silver lining, is this: We saw what Kentucky was capable of this year. Against Florida, Auburn and some talented teams they put together periods of impressive play. At times they looked like they belonged on the field against some teams that had some good moments this year. They were capable of playing well even if they didn't play well often enough.
I'm saying that to drive home an important point: UK's destiny is in its own hands. A tougher schedule doesn't mean 5-7 will be the outcome. If Kentucky plays most of next year like they played in some games this year then they can reach a bowl. The flip side is also true. If Kentucky plays most of next year like they played all too often late this year (and the previous year) then they will not be in a bowl. That should be reassuring to some fans, however, because the alternative is pretty fatalistic given the odds of any UK coach succeeding in the SEC in a zero-sum game of wins and losses.
Tennessee looks like they'll be all but unbeatable for UK next year. Florida in the Swamp won't be easy (although they played them very tough and may match up well for a third straight year). Georgia's undergoing a coaching change and their immediate personnel isn't terrifying. That's in Commonwealth. Vanderbilt should have been a win and they'll play in Lexington. Missouri -- well, the Cats broke through and beat them, and they're undergoing a coaching change. Will be tough to improve from Pinkel. And South Carolina? UK's beaten them two straight years and Will Muschamp's hiring has raised some eyebrows. Mississippi State loses Dak Prescott and it's tough to overestimate that. Plus they play at UK next season. That should be a winnable game.
The offense has to improve....a lot. Going into the 2015 football season expectations were high for Kentucky's offense. Even the esteemed football wonk Phil Steele picked Kentucky's passing offense to be the most improved in the country. Unbelievably it got worse. That was an aberration that exceeded the bounds of what should have been possible; an outlier if ever an outlier there was. Second-year quarterback, more experienced receivers, the best depth they had at running back in some time, flashy new tight end, and an offensive line that returned a lot. The regression defies explanation. So -- I'm not going to try to explain the regression.
Shannon Dawson said he was happy with the way Kentucky ran the ball most of the year. Unfortunately they weren't exactly a really good running team. I agree with him, that they had more success on the ground than through the air. But consider that even Arkansas has been evidence that you can have the nation's best running game and that alone -- in this day and age in football -- is only going to get you so far. You have to be able to pass the ball. Simple plays, big plays. One leads to the other.
Reason for hope: If it all starts in the trenches then you have to believe things will improve at least somewhat. How much? We'll see. I think everyone should step back and avoid the tendency to set expectations for the true freshmen that will be entering the program next year. I think Drake Jackson will probably redshirt. I think Landon Young could get some playing time but the best case scenario is that he redshirts (my opinion only). Luke Fortner will probably redshirt.
But even if most of the excitement over this banner offensive line class is more of the long-term variety (downer, huh?) there's still reason to believe next year's line could be majorly improved. Jon Toth graded out second-best among all SEC centers and will be a draft pick. He'll be a senior and an experienced starter at center. "Okay," you say. "Where'd that get us this year?" Good point.
Enter Tate Leavitt. What are my expectations for Leavitt? That he'll play. He'll be part of the seven, eight, nine-man rotation or whatever is it. Beyond that, I think he's got a chance to start. Here's what we've learned in the Stoops' era: This staff can really do well with junior college players. There's also a tendency to overestimate the first year impact of junior college players. Tate Leavitt only played in half of Hutchinson's game's this year and before his time there he took a year off. He showed this year that he can match up against Power Five-committed defensive ends, but a reasonable hope -- at least for Kentucky fans in my mind -- would be that Leavitt: A) Adds to the line's depth, B) Improves the line's run blocking. Good chance (not a lock) that he starts. But don't expect him to be All-SEC his first year. He's an elite talent with big upside, no doubt, but there's still a steep learning curve. Fortunately he arrives early.
Furthermore, Kyle Meadows will actually enter next season with expectations of improving in a significant way. People in the program like him. And just as important will be (presumably) George Asafo-Adjei being able to move inside to guard. It was really unfortunate for him to play tackle as an SEC true freshman out of position. Expectations were set too high for him preseason and I think an offseason and another year of experience will do wonders to help refresh and reset him. There are other redshirted guys coming up in the program that will be tough to project.
But here's my point: I think the line will improve. On paper, it looks like it will. Maybe it'll improve a little. But there's a chance it improves significantly. Don't fall into the thinking that says change only occurs gradually and in linear fashion. If Kentucky had good play at left tackle instead of the play it had in 2015, it's tough to fathom how much might have been different. If an offensive tackle wins or holds his own on 90-percent of pass plays instead of 80-percent, that might not seem like a ton, but it's huge on a number of levels. In that context, modest and achievable improvement could create the dynamics for a very different-looking offense.
You also have to believe a full year as the expected starter will lead to a Drew Barker that's different than the one we saw late this season. He'll enter next year as a third-year Wildcat. We'll see how he plays. Not creating expectations.
Furthermore C.J. Conrad, Stanley Williams, Mikel Horton, Dorian Baker, Juice Johnson, etc., -- all a year older. What if drops aren't a huge issue next year? I'm not saying they won't be. I'm just posing the question: What if? Things do tend to spiral out of control when things start going wrong. What if that spiral doesn't happen?
In summary: Find an identity. Set your staff however it's going to be set. Focus on the fundamentals. After expectations proved to be ridiculous in hindsight this year, keep expectations modest. Instead of focusing on the glamour positions, watch for the improvement at tackle and keep your ears open for word of Barker's rapport with Conrad.
The Challenges
The schedule next year is tough. Unfortunately for Stoops, getting to a bowl game in his fourth year isn't going to be easy. It can certainly happen (much stranger things have happened), but the schedule is tougher next year than it was this year.
Reason for hope: My response to that, if you're looking for a silver lining, is this: We saw what Kentucky was capable of this year. Against Florida, Auburn and some talented teams they put together periods of impressive play. At times they looked like they belonged on the field against some teams that had some good moments this year. They were capable of playing well even if they didn't play well often enough.
I'm saying that to drive home an important point: UK's destiny is in its own hands. A tougher schedule doesn't mean 5-7 will be the outcome. If Kentucky plays most of next year like they played in some games this year then they can reach a bowl. The flip side is also true. If Kentucky plays most of next year like they played all too often late this year (and the previous year) then they will not be in a bowl. That should be reassuring to some fans, however, because the alternative is pretty fatalistic given the odds of any UK coach succeeding in the SEC in a zero-sum game of wins and losses.
Tennessee looks like they'll be all but unbeatable for UK next year. Florida in the Swamp won't be easy (although they played them very tough and may match up well for a third straight year). Georgia's undergoing a coaching change and their immediate personnel isn't terrifying. That's in Commonwealth. Vanderbilt should have been a win and they'll play in Lexington. Missouri -- well, the Cats broke through and beat them, and they're undergoing a coaching change. Will be tough to improve from Pinkel. And South Carolina? UK's beaten them two straight years and Will Muschamp's hiring has raised some eyebrows. Mississippi State loses Dak Prescott and it's tough to overestimate that. Plus they play at UK next season. That should be a winnable game.
The offense has to improve....a lot. Going into the 2015 football season expectations were high for Kentucky's offense. Even the esteemed football wonk Phil Steele picked Kentucky's passing offense to be the most improved in the country. Unbelievably it got worse. That was an aberration that exceeded the bounds of what should have been possible; an outlier if ever an outlier there was. Second-year quarterback, more experienced receivers, the best depth they had at running back in some time, flashy new tight end, and an offensive line that returned a lot. The regression defies explanation. So -- I'm not going to try to explain the regression.
Shannon Dawson said he was happy with the way Kentucky ran the ball most of the year. Unfortunately they weren't exactly a really good running team. I agree with him, that they had more success on the ground than through the air. But consider that even Arkansas has been evidence that you can have the nation's best running game and that alone -- in this day and age in football -- is only going to get you so far. You have to be able to pass the ball. Simple plays, big plays. One leads to the other.
Reason for hope: If it all starts in the trenches then you have to believe things will improve at least somewhat. How much? We'll see. I think everyone should step back and avoid the tendency to set expectations for the true freshmen that will be entering the program next year. I think Drake Jackson will probably redshirt. I think Landon Young could get some playing time but the best case scenario is that he redshirts (my opinion only). Luke Fortner will probably redshirt.
But even if most of the excitement over this banner offensive line class is more of the long-term variety (downer, huh?) there's still reason to believe next year's line could be majorly improved. Jon Toth graded out second-best among all SEC centers and will be a draft pick. He'll be a senior and an experienced starter at center. "Okay," you say. "Where'd that get us this year?" Good point.
Enter Tate Leavitt. What are my expectations for Leavitt? That he'll play. He'll be part of the seven, eight, nine-man rotation or whatever is it. Beyond that, I think he's got a chance to start. Here's what we've learned in the Stoops' era: This staff can really do well with junior college players. There's also a tendency to overestimate the first year impact of junior college players. Tate Leavitt only played in half of Hutchinson's game's this year and before his time there he took a year off. He showed this year that he can match up against Power Five-committed defensive ends, but a reasonable hope -- at least for Kentucky fans in my mind -- would be that Leavitt: A) Adds to the line's depth, B) Improves the line's run blocking. Good chance (not a lock) that he starts. But don't expect him to be All-SEC his first year. He's an elite talent with big upside, no doubt, but there's still a steep learning curve. Fortunately he arrives early.
Furthermore, Kyle Meadows will actually enter next season with expectations of improving in a significant way. People in the program like him. And just as important will be (presumably) George Asafo-Adjei being able to move inside to guard. It was really unfortunate for him to play tackle as an SEC true freshman out of position. Expectations were set too high for him preseason and I think an offseason and another year of experience will do wonders to help refresh and reset him. There are other redshirted guys coming up in the program that will be tough to project.
But here's my point: I think the line will improve. On paper, it looks like it will. Maybe it'll improve a little. But there's a chance it improves significantly. Don't fall into the thinking that says change only occurs gradually and in linear fashion. If Kentucky had good play at left tackle instead of the play it had in 2015, it's tough to fathom how much might have been different. If an offensive tackle wins or holds his own on 90-percent of pass plays instead of 80-percent, that might not seem like a ton, but it's huge on a number of levels. In that context, modest and achievable improvement could create the dynamics for a very different-looking offense.
You also have to believe a full year as the expected starter will lead to a Drew Barker that's different than the one we saw late this season. He'll enter next year as a third-year Wildcat. We'll see how he plays. Not creating expectations.
Furthermore C.J. Conrad, Stanley Williams, Mikel Horton, Dorian Baker, Juice Johnson, etc., -- all a year older. What if drops aren't a huge issue next year? I'm not saying they won't be. I'm just posing the question: What if? Things do tend to spiral out of control when things start going wrong. What if that spiral doesn't happen?
In summary: Find an identity. Set your staff however it's going to be set. Focus on the fundamentals. After expectations proved to be ridiculous in hindsight this year, keep expectations modest. Instead of focusing on the glamour positions, watch for the improvement at tackle and keep your ears open for word of Barker's rapport with Conrad.
Last edited:
