computers can’t measure teams growing through the season lol bro
2012 UK or 2018 nova
- Thread starter RunninRichie
- Start date
you realize Kentucky was up on kansas in the 2012 title game by as much as 16 and could’ve won by as much as 20 but cal played what we liked to call “stallball” and allowed them to cut into the lead
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Pomeroy determines efficiency more than anything else. If you use Pomeroy as your metric, then 2019 UVA is better than 2018 Nova. They have an overall higher rating, much higher defensive rating, and a little lower offensive rating. 2015 UK has the highest overall score since 2002. 2015 Wisconsin and Duke has comparable numbers to 2018 Nova. 2013 Louisville allegedly had a team that year that had a better overall score than 2012 UK. Is 2013 UL better than 2012 UK? Not by a long shot. But according to your definition, that means they would be. Do you really think 2013 UL is better than 2012 UK? I wouldn't think so, because stats don't tell the whole story. The stats tell that Villanova was incredibly efficient on offense and pretty good on defense.
When you determine who the best team is, you don't only look at their best work against other elite teams. You look at the whole resume. Not just selecting a few games to make them look better as a whole. To that matter, Nova blew out 5 elite teams. But also lost to four teams that were clearly inferior, and struggled to win three other games against inferior competition. You throw out those struggles as "the team lost their focus" but then tout how great they were to ranked competition. You have to look at both. Nova beat up on elite teams and also struggled against clearly inferior teams. The thing is, all-time great teams don't lose at home to a team with a losing record.
Also, being a top ten team doesn't mean elite. I think most people on this board can agree to that. The long running joke here is that Duke will lose a game, and then go up in the polls. Using a ranking to determine if a team is elite only shows you don't really know a lot about basketball. UM was not an elite team. An elite team doesn't spend almost the entire season out of the top ten. An elite team doesn't lose in the second round of the tournament. Those were good teams, not elite.
2012 UK has the most decorated freshman in college history. AD's win-share is 9.9. Nova's two best players, Brunson and Bridges were 7.7 each, which means that Nova was top heavy in talent and usage. You discount MKG and Lamb, but they both had a W/S of over 6, with TJ nearly at 6 himself. 2012 UK was loaded with talent and no one single person dominated the team. As Cal always says, AD lead the team in scoring, but took the 5th most shots. They were like a swiss army knife. The same can't be said about Nova.
Nova shot a whole lot of threes. You say they didn't rely on the three, yet, all of their losses show that their 3pt % was way lower than their season average. If they weren't hitting their threes, they were going to lose the game. 2012 UK also went to the line far more than Nova did (UK - 938 FTA and Nova - 718), which is indicative of how much Nova relies on the 3.
What the stats don't show, is the amount of times AD altered shots and entire game plans just because of his shot blocking ability. Teams were down right afraid to go in the paint. If Nova were to play 2012 UK, they would absolutely have to hit their threes because Nova isn't scoring inside against TJ and AD. Like previously mentioned, UK has the all time record for total team blocked shots, led the nation in FG defense, and only one team was better at rebounding. That's an elite defense.
This is also something that can't be measured with stats. UK only got stronger as the year went on. Whereas Nova struggled down the stretch of the regular season, going 5-3 in their last 8 games and needing OT to win at Seton Hall who was an 8 seed in the tournament.
Which is weird for such a legendary team with so much firepower and experience. They can beat those "elite" teams, but struggled against a couple of mediocre teams. Definitely the best non-UCLA team ever.
Pomeroy, like every other college basketball computer rating system, still hasn’t quite figured out how to weigh strength of opponent/schedule. It’s obvious if you’ve been paying attention.
Mid majors with gaudy win/loss records are almost always overrated by the computers
Mid majors with gaudy win/loss records are almost always overrated by the computers
Two things I've learned from this thread. One, 2018 was a historically bad year for college basketball. Two, Villanova was a historically good team in a historically bad year. Name one player on that Loyola team. UVA was the first #1 seed to lose to a #16. Xavier (OH) was a #1 seed and didn't make it past the first weekend. The best team Villanova beat in the NCAA was probably Kansas, and that was far from a vintage KU team.
If they played right now, UK's 2018 versus Villanova's 2018 would be a good match-up:
PG - SGA vs. Brunson (advantage SGA, but I'm a big Brunson fan, no question Mavs would trade him for SGA though)
SG- Diallo vs. DiVincenzo (pretty close, both are in the bubble right now and had similar first games, maybe slight advantage Vinnie D)
SF - Knox vs. Bridges (advantage Bridges, but not by a huge amount, similar stats this year)
PF - Washington vs. Paschall (Paschall averaged 14.0 ppg with a 14.5 per for terrible Warriors team, PJ was 12.2 and 12.0 for Charlotte this year, slight advantage Paschall)
C - Richards vs. Spellman (they will probably go head-to-head in the G-League next year)
If they played right now, UK's 2018 versus Villanova's 2018 would be a good match-up:
PG - SGA vs. Brunson (advantage SGA, but I'm a big Brunson fan, no question Mavs would trade him for SGA though)
SG- Diallo vs. DiVincenzo (pretty close, both are in the bubble right now and had similar first games, maybe slight advantage Vinnie D)
SF - Knox vs. Bridges (advantage Bridges, but not by a huge amount, similar stats this year)
PF - Washington vs. Paschall (Paschall averaged 14.0 ppg with a 14.5 per for terrible Warriors team, PJ was 12.2 and 12.0 for Charlotte this year, slight advantage Paschall)
C - Richards vs. Spellman (they will probably go head-to-head in the G-League next year)
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Why was 2018 a historically bad year for bball? Disagree just because Loyola made the final four.
Valid about UVA- but do they lose to UMBC if Hunter plays? Then again, even without your best player, still should beat the 16 seed team.
For most of the year, UVA was the one elite team in CBB. We all know what happened to them. In the tournament, the West and South regions went completely up in flames after the first weekend. The South had a 9 and an 11 in the E8. The West had 3 and a 9.
Nova didn't have a face a real top ten team outside of Kansas the entire tournament.
Good points man. Looking at the teams again, don't see many that stood out in 18.
By the way, I was in Nashville that year to see Cincy blow that 22 point lead vs Nevada and Xavier lose to Florida State. Two big chokes...
Michigan State should have been better, with Miles Bridges and Jalen Jackson. But they were a #3 seed and lost in the second round to Syracuse.
Arizona had Ayton and lost in the first round by 21 to Buffalo.
Duke had Bagley, Grayson Allen and Wendell Carter, and they lost to KU in the 8. Villanova had 4 players drafted that year before the first KU player was taken in the second round.
As I showed above, we were as talented as anyone in 2018. But that was a totally forgettable year for UK. I remember it more for the Jarred Vanderbilt saga than anything else.
So there are the most talented teams in 2018, going by the NBA Draft that year. Villanova didn't have to play any of those teams. Although, they likely would have killed them if they did.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2018.html
Arizona had Ayton and lost in the first round by 21 to Buffalo.
Duke had Bagley, Grayson Allen and Wendell Carter, and they lost to KU in the 8. Villanova had 4 players drafted that year before the first KU player was taken in the second round.
As I showed above, we were as talented as anyone in 2018. But that was a totally forgettable year for UK. I remember it more for the Jarred Vanderbilt saga than anything else.
So there are the most talented teams in 2018, going by the NBA Draft that year. Villanova didn't have to play any of those teams. Although, they likely would have killed them if they did.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2018.html
It's gotta be the UC upset. I absolutely loved watching Cronin just lose it on the sideline when his best player fouled out.
Of course I know Coach Cal isn't the only coach to do that. As for everything else you said, 2018 Nova played in a soft ass 2018 college basketball year. Regardless, margin of victory is a very very poor argument. Different seasons/years, different competition, different styles of play, etc...margin of victory is probably the worst argument to use, to be honest. Surely you know that though.
Btw, 2012 UK is still the only team to win 38 games and the National Title in the same season. Sorry, Nova fan..but Nova can't say that. No other D1 men's college basketball team can. 2012 > 2018 in terms of college basketball years/truly elite competition..and that's not an opinion. Including the NCAA Tournament, 2012 UK was 2-0 vs. the National Title runner up, 4-0 vs Final 4 teams, 9-0 vs. Elite 8 teams, like 10 or 11-1 vs. Sweet 16 teams, they were like 16-2 vs. NCAA Tournament teams. UK beat EVERYBODY on their schedule at least once. 1-1 vs Indiana and UK got revenge on Indiana by double digits in the Sweet 16 after Indiana lucked into a buzzer beater win at Indiana in December, 2-1 vs Vanderbilt (UK beat them at Vandy by 6 and again in Lexington by 9 and Vandy finally beat UK in the SEC Tournament Final in a game that Coach Cal let UK lose by not calling any timeouts during Vandy's 16-2 run to end the game and UK lost by 7..big deal. Plus, UK had to play Florida for a 3rd time in the SEC Tournament Semis and then UK had to play Vandy for a 3rd time the very next day in the SEC Tournament Finals..it's a very tough task to beat one team 3 times in one season, let alone beat 2 teams 3 times in one season and in back to back days.)...UK was 35-0 against everybody else. 2018 Nova can't claim such things.
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