12 Games left, what's our Record?

[Cats192]

We've done this a few times, seems like a good time to revisit.


@UT--Win. Just feels like we should be fired up/locked in after 2
Arkansas--win
@Ole Miss--loss. Really good team on the road.
SC--win
vs TN--loss. Figure they're good enough we're due to split
@Texas--win
vs Vandy--win
@Alabama--loss. They're just so good and experienced
@Oklahoma--win
vs Auburn--win--I think we play up to our competition, hopefully everyone is healthy at this point, I think our guys are playing really hard in this one.
vs LSU--win
@Missour--loss. They're a very tough team, especially at home.

This makes us 8-4 the rest of the way. 22-9 regular season. We could definitely lose both TN games, Bama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Missou and go 6-6.

We should DEFINITELY win Arkansas, SC, LSU, Vandy at home

We SHOULD beat Texas and Oklahoma, but those will be tough road games too.

There's a world where we go 4-8 and finish 18-13, which would be brutal. I think we're a lot better than we showed in the Vandy game, and if we can get/stay healthy, better days are ahead.

 

[MegaBlue05]

0-12 - this board after a loss.

If we happen to beat UT tomorrow, 12-0 - this board after a big win

 

[rick64]

@UT Loss
Arkansas Win
@Ole Miss Loss
SC Win
vs TN Win
@Texas Win
vs VandyWin
@Alabama Loss
@Oklahoma Win
vs Auburn Loss
vs LSU Win
@Missouri Loss

7-5

 

[true blue1]

I think at best 7-5 but l won't be disappointed finishing 6-6.

 

[sk73]

Home wins against Arkansas, Vandy and LSU. SC win on the road. Everything else is a maybe. Auburn and UT at home are great opportunities. I don't think we will be favored though.

 

[KentuckyCat420]

20-11

 

[docholiday51]

I think at best 7-5 but l won't be disappointed finishing 6-6.

I would take 6-6 right now ,we aren't beating UT or Aub if we played them in a Mormon church. I see wins over Ark, SC ,Vandy and LSU at best

 

[ukwazoo]

I'll go with 8-4

 

[kywildcat41035]

8-4 looks realistic to me!

 

[JFCats22]

6-6, maybe 7-5 is things go great

 

[JonathanW]

0-12 - this board after a loss.

If we happen to beat UT tomorrow, 12-0 - this board after a big win

This ^ is the perfect answer.

As for me though, as a Statistician, I know that probabilities of wins is more predictive than simply saying W or L. I am assuming no further injuries, no Kriisa return, and Carr to miss the next 3 games (@UT, Ark, @Ole Miss). Here are my updated probabilities of winning each game, the sum of which would be my estimate for # of wins:
0.35 @UT
0.85 Arkansas
0.45 @Ole Miss
0.85 SC
0.6 vs TN
0.6 @Texas
0.8 vs Vandy
0.4 @Alabama
0.65 @Oklahoma
0.55 vs Auburn
0.9 vs LSU
0.6 @Missouri

If you look at each game separately, I am predicting us a >50% chance to win 9 games, so 9-3.
But a more precise way to do this is to sum up all the probabilities, which = 7.6, so 7.6-4.4, or if rounded 8-4.

 

[jedwar]

L @UT
W Arkansas
L @Ole Miss
W SC
L UT
W @Texas
W Vandy
L @Alabama
L @Oklahoma
L Auburn
W LSU
L Missouri

5-7 but 7-5 wouldn't surprise me. Tough games with some really tough matchups. Couple that with injuries, inconsistent play and inconsistent lineups, not feeling rosey.

 

[WeWant9]

@UT L
Arkansas W
@Ole Miss W- picking this as my surprise road win
SC W
vs TN W
@Texas L
vs Vandy W
@Alabama L
@Oklahoma W
vs Auburn L
vs LSU W
@Missouri L

This team is hard to predict game to game and week to week. But my best stab at this is 7-5.

 

[JonathanW]

L @UT
W Arkansas
L @Ole Miss
W SC
L UT
W @Texas
W Vandy
L @Alabama
L @Oklahoma
L Auburn
W LSU
L Missouri

5-7 but 7-5 wouldn't surprise me. Tough games with some really tough matchups. Couple that with injuries, inconsistent play and inconsistent lineups, not feeling rosey.

While I get what you are saying. But everyone has inconsistent play and/or other issues. For example, look at UT (who you having us lose to both at UT and in Rupp). This is the UT team that lost at HOME to Florida by 30, and it was a 16+ point game the entire 2nd half; the UT team that also lost at Vandy the past 10 days; the UT team that shot 31% overall and 18% from 3 vs Auburn (was actually at 7% from 3, until late in 2nd half)

 

[jedwar]

While I get what you are saying. But everyone has inconsistent play and/or other issues. For example, look at UT (who you having us lose to both at UT and in Rupp). This is the UT team that lost at HOME to Florida by 30, and it was a 16+ point game the entire 2nd half; the UT team that also lost at Vandy the past 10 days; the UT team that shot 31% overall and 18% from 3 vs Auburn (was actually at 7% from 3, until late in 2nd half)

Would love to see us beat them. But I think they are a hard matchup and will keep us from getting out of the 60's, which was the magical number in 4 of our losses. Maybe they will have issues scoring against us. Hope so. And I think UT lost at Florida, but still a bad loss to lose by 30.

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

5-7 or 6-6

 

[G-PIP]

The thing that bothers me in trying to guess the record going forward is the health of Carr. If he can play AND move without restriction, then I'd go 8-4 or 7-5. But without a healthy Carr I would thrilled with 6-6.

 

[TopCatCal]

We've done this a few times, seems like a good time to revisit.


@UT--Win. Just feels like we should be fired up/locked in after 2
Arkansas--win
@Ole Miss--loss. Really good team on the road.
SC--win
vs TN--loss. Figure they're good enough we're due to split
@Texas--win
vs Vandy--win
@Alabama--loss. They're just so good and experienced
@Oklahoma--win
vs Auburn--win--I think we play up to our competition, hopefully everyone is healthy at this point, I think our guys are playing really hard in this one.
vs LSU--win
@Missour--loss. They're a very tough team, especially at home.

This makes us 8-4 the rest of the way. 22-9 regular season. We could definitely lose both TN games, Bama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Missou and go 6-6.

We should DEFINITELY win Arkansas, SC, LSU, Vandy at home

We SHOULD beat Texas and Oklahoma, but those will be tough road games too.

There's a world where we go 4-8 and finish 18-13, which would be brutal. I think we're a lot better than we showed in the Vandy game, and if we can get/stay healthy, better days are ahead.

Without Brandon Carr,, Kerr Kriisa and a less than 100% Lamont Butler & playing in the strongest conference in the country, a 7-5 record is about as good as we can hope for.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

@UT Loss
Arkansas Win
@Ole Miss Loss
SC Win
vs TN Win
@Texas Win
vs VandyWin
@Alabama Loss
@Oklahoma Win
vs Auburn Loss
vs LSU Win
@Missouri Loss

7-5

I'd say this.

With Carrs unknown and Butlers lingering issues, it's hard to predict.

 

[UKBB4Ever]

12-0 until proven different.

I’ll never count a loss before it happens.

 

[Rideordiewildcat]

Im going optimistic 9-3 and beating AUB.

 

[cathouse]

I am the biggest Pope loving, UK Homer on this board.
I am also a realist.
Worst case scenario: 4-8
Best case: 6-6

8-10, 9-9 in the SEC has been my realistic expectation since November.

And I still love my team. If we can get to the NCAA tournament with a decent (4/5) seed, the first 2 games should be a cakewalk compared to what we are dealing with in the SEC every freaking game.

 

[*CatinIL*]

7-5

 

[Digger-Cat]

While I get what you are saying. But everyone has inconsistent play and/or other issues. For example, look at UT (who you having us lose to both at UT and in Rupp). This is the UT team that lost at HOME to Florida by 30, and it was a 16+ point game the entire 2nd half; the UT team that also lost at Vandy the past 10 days; the UT team that shot 31% overall and 18% from 3 vs Auburn (was actually at 7% from 3, until late in 2nd half)

Tennessee didn't lose to Florida at home, that game was at Florida.

But, we can't compare UK to others, because teams are more locked in when UK comes to town. We get their absolute best shot.

There are certainly times when Tennessee, Alabama and Auburn also get the full attention when they go on the road, but nevertheless, the odds of us catching teams sleeping on us, or not at their best, are slim to none.

With the injuries we are dealing with, the very noticable regression, Brea in a slump and Williams playing lazy, I'm going with 5-7. I just think the SEC us wearing this team down and honestly, I think we're going to eek out a couple of those 5 wins.

 

[Digger-Cat]

Without Brandon Carr,, Kerr Kriisa and a less than 100% Lamont Butler & playing in the strongest conference in the country, a 7-5 record is about as good as we can hope for.

If we could combine both players, that would be awesome. 😂

 

[Blueisbest]

I'll go with 7-5. We split against UT, Beat Arkansas, USCjr, LSU, Vandy at home, Texas or Oklahoma, not both. and steal a road game against either Ole Miss, Mizzou, or Alabama.

 

[hoggwildcat]

4-8, won't win another road game, not good enough to beat UT and Auburn.