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Will 12 team playoff be less top heavy than CFP has been?

Tskware

All-American
Gold Member
Jan 27, 2003
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I surely hope so: Have some random thoughts below.

Just 15 schools have made the four team CFP in the ten years in its existence. And nearly half of the forty potential invites have gone to just three teams: Bama (8); Clemson (6); TOSU (5). So on average, two of those three schools have made up half the four team playoff the last ten years. If you add in the next three teams, UGA (3); Oklahoma (4) and Michigan (3), that is 29 of the 40 possible spots taken by only six teams. Surely a 12 team playoff, with the potential for upsets, will give us more variety for different teams in final four.

Unless . . . I honestly wonder with NIL and transfer portal, will the top teams just become so dominant as to be nearly invincible?

Another thing, for all the talk about SEC dominance in the CFP . . . . it really has been Bama and Georgia dominance since 2014 - only one other SEC team has been invited, LSU in 2019, who won it all that year.

I will say that I was a big fan of the CFP when announced, thought that four was just the right number (still think that actually). However this year, a good argument could be made that the next four left out, Ohio State, Georgia, Florida State and Oregon (assuming all were at full strength, obviously FSU was not) were pretty much the equal of the four that got invited this year. Had there been an 8 team playoff, most likely Georgia would have been the betting favorite, and if FSU was at full strength, would have to think they would have gotten a lot of betting action as well.

Finally, when looking at the overall list, one thing stuck out to me was the teams that did not make the playoffs in ten years. Had you told me in January 2014 that Florida, Tennessee, Auburn, Miami FLA, Southern Cal and Penn State would never make the top four in the next ten years, I would have bet a lot of money against that proposition.
 
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