Originally posted by IL Wildcat:
Originally posted by MdWIldcat55:
Haven't seen this mentioned:
North Carolina looked like the better team against UW for most of their game -- quicker, more athletic, looked a bit bigger in the frontcourt (Meeks was dinged up, though he did play.) The Cheaters were up seven in the middle of the second half, and were still up a couple points, as I recall, in the 3-4 minute range.
Wisconsin played smarter down the stretch, hit a couple critical shots, made free throws, and forced UNC to take a couple ill-advised shots. Roy blew a chance to call a time out down a point or two, and it quickly went to 5 or 7 as I recall.
That's the key for Kentucky, in my opinion: Play mentally tough, hit free throws, don't relax on defense until the final horn. The Cats are like a 10 percent upgraded version of UNC in terms of size and athleticism. That should make it tough for UW. But the Badgers can't be allowed to steal it with a 13-4 run in the last three minutes, built on free throws, a clutch 3-pointer or two, and some bad possessions by the Cats, like a missed one-an-one by WCS and a turnover/bad shot sequence. The margin of error will not be vast.
If I have a nightmare scenario, it is a game that Kentucky has seemed to control, but UW has hung around with 3-pointers to stay within 5-8 points. Then in the last 8-9 minutes, all those metrics like foul differential, foul shot percentage, low turnover rate, FG percentage, kick in for UW and it ends up a two-possession game. I know Kentucky has prevailed in those scenarios this year but I do think Wisconsin is the most difficult to "close out a game on" team the Cats will have played.
Excellent observations MdWildcat. I think this is something our Badger friend was trying to point out in his post above. Wisconsin is great at finishing games. As you say, I think it is essential that we have a lead going into the final minutes of the game. I think we will have that lead. But it is equally essential that we make wise decisions down stretch. I saw that UNC game too, and thought the same thing you just said. I felt like UNC was the better team in terms of athleticism and talent (even with Meeks not healthy) but they took that lead of around 7-8 points and then Wisconsin really focused on their play while UNC took a bad shot, then another poor decision, then a turnover, and the next thing you know Wisconsin cut it to 2 or 3. I'm watching and saying, "Better call a timeout Roy!" I think he still had 3 or 4. But he didn't call it. Meanwhile, Wisconsin hits a three and then scores on 3 or 4 more possessions and take a lead. It literally happened in about 4 minutes if memory serves, between a couple tv timeouts. Once Wisconsin took the lead it was over.
But when we think about this Kentucky team, they also know how to close out games. They understand the metrics of it. They understand the need for efficiency. They're not going to just run down and jack up a shot at crunch time. That's one of the things I've loved about this UK team in particular. They can't play tight, but they must be mindful of making wise decisions, even if they have a bit of a lead. Wisconsin is very efficient down the stretch, especially.
Of course who knows for sure what will happen...but this whole season we haven't let the other team dominate the ending of a game. UW is not as thin as some teams, but they're still not as deep as we are (especially when it comes to quality and not quantity). If we play our game, our pace, we wear down UW which makes it that much harder for them to close it out their way.
