Wisconsin Badgers
Head Coach: Bo Ryan 739-227 (.765)
2015 Overall Record: 35-3
2015 Big Ten Record: 16-2
2015 Neutral Record: 10-0
Bo Ryan vs UK all-time: 2-5
UK leads all-time series with Wisconsin 4-1
Last meeting: UK won 74-73 on 4/5/14
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium (67,000)
Indianapolis, IN
Saturday, April 4 @ 8:49 p.m. ET
Television Network: TBS
Commentators: play by play: Jim Nantz, Analyst: Bill Rafftery,
Analyst: Grant Hill, sideline: Tracy Wolfson
UK Radio: Tom Leach, Mike Pratt
Schedule
11/14/14 vs. Northern Kentucky W, 62-31
11/16/14 vs. Chattanooga W, 89-45
11/19/14 vs. Green Bay W, 84-60
11/22/14 vs. Boise State W, 78-54
Battle 4 Atlantis
11/26/14 vs. UAB W, 72-43
11/27/14 vs. Georgetown W, 68-65
11/28/14 vs. Oklahoma W, 69-56
12/03/14 vs. Duke L, 80-70
12/06/14 at Marquette W, 49-38
12/10/14 at Milwaukee W, 93-54
12/13/14 vs. Nicholls W, 86-43
12/22/14 at California W, 68-56
12/28/14 vs. Buffalo W, 68-56
12/31/14 vs. Penn State * W, 89-72
01/04/15 at Northwestern * W, 81-58
01/07/15 vs. Purdue * W, 62-55
01/11/15 at Rutgers * L, 67-62
01/15/15 vs. Nebraska * W, 70-55
01/20/15 vs. Iowa * W, 82-50
01/24/15 at Michigan * W, 69-64 (OT)
01/31/15 at Iowa * W, 74-63
02/03/15 vs. Indiana * W, 92-78
02/07/15 vs. Northwestern * W, 65-50
02/10/15 at Nebraska * W, 65-55
02/15/15 vs. Illinois * W, 68-49
02/18/15 at Penn State * W, 55-47
02/21/15 vs. Minnesota * W, 63-53
02/24/15 at Maryland * L, 59-53
03/01/15 vs. Michigan State * W, 68-61
03/05/15 at Minnesota * W, 76-63
03/08/15 at Ohio State * W, 72-48
Big Ten Tournament
03/13/15 vs. Michigan W, 71-60
03/14/15 vs. Purdue W, 71-51
03/15/15 vs. Michigan State W, 80-69 (OT)
NCAA Tournament
03/20/15 vs. Coastal Carolina W, 86-72
03/22/15 vs. Oregon W, 72-65
03/26/15 vs. North Carolina W, 79-72
03/28/15 vs. Arizona W, 85-78
04/04/15 vs. Kentucky 8:49 p.m. ET
Probable Starters
F #44 Frank Kaminsky 7-0 234 Sr. 18.7pts, 8.0reb, 2.7ast, 1.5blks, .415 3fg
F #15 Sam Dekker 6-9 220 Jr. 13.9pts, 5.5reb, 1.2ast, .338 3fg
F #10 Nigel Hayes 6-7 250 So. 12.4pts, 6.3reb, 2.1ast, .380 3fg
G #21 Josh Gasser 6-3 190 Sr. 6.9pts, 3.4reb, 1.8ast, .384 3fg
G #24 Bronson Koenig 6-3 190 So. 8.6pts, 1.7reb, 2.4ast, .411 3fg
Bench
G #12 Traevon Jackson 6-2 208 Sr. 8.6pts, 1.6reb, 2.6ast, .297 3fg
F #13 Duje Dukan 6-9 220 Sr. 4.8pts, 2.6reb, .318 3fg
G #3 Zak Showalter 6-2 192 So. 2.1pts, 1.3reb, .143 3fg
F #30 Vitto Brown 6-8 237 Fr. 1.9pts, 1.3reb no 3pt threat
Team Stats
Points per game: 72.8 (UK: 74.6)
Points allowed: 57.8 (UK: 53.9)
Scoring margin: +15 (UK: +20.7)
Field goal %: 48.2% (UK: 46.8%)
FG% allowed: 42.6% (UK: 35.2%)
3pt FG%: 36.4% (UK: 34.7%)
3pt% defense: 37.4% (UK: 26.7%)
Free throw %: 76.4 (UK: 72.5%)
Rebounds: 33.4 (UK: 38.4)
Opp Rebounds: 27.7 (UK: 31.1)
Rebound margin: +5.7 (UK: +7.3)
Assists: 12.65 (UK: 14.3)
Turnovers: 7.4 (UK: 10.6)
TOs forced: 9.65 (UK: 13.8)
A/TO Ratio: 1.7 (UK: 1.35)
Steals per game: 4.5 (UK: 6.5)
Blocks per game: 3.3 (UK: 6.9)
Important KenPom Stats for Wisconsin:
Overall Rating: #3
Offensive Efficiency: #1 (127.5)
Defensive Efficiency: #55 (96.4)
Best internal stats:
Turnover %: 12.3% (#1) (they don't turn it over)
2pt%: 55.2% (#7) (they shoot 2pt fgs very well)
FTA/FGA: 22.1% (#1) (they commit fewest fouls per opponent's fg attempt in the nation)
Defensive rebounding: 23.9% (#4) (they don't allow many offensive rebounds)
Worst internal stats:
Turnover %: 16.1% (#327) (They don't turn people over)
Steal %: 7.5% (#318) (They don't force steals)
3pt% defense: 37.4% (#301) (opponents have shot the 3 very well against them)
Block%: 8.5% (#223) (they don't block many shots)
Effective FG% defense: 47.5% (#99) (they allow teams to shoot well)
Common Opponents: Buffalo, UNC
Results: Wisconsin 68 Buffalo 56; Kentucky 71 Buffalo 52
Results: Wisconsin 79 UNC 72; Kentucky 84 UNC 70
Analysis: Well, Kentucky and Calipari have returned to the Final Four yet again. This now makes 4 Final Fours in 6 seasons for UK under Calipari, which is a ridiculous accomplishment in itself. And who do they have as their opponent? It's Wisconsin for the second straight year and they're looking for some pay-back, and have the confidence that they can get it done. I've noticed, however, that the Badgers are too savvy to run their mouths about it too much. That's smart on their part. They may have a slight edge in terms of psychology for this game, though I think the Cats have a bit of their own motivation, wanting to finish the job they started last season and wanting to prove these Coach of the Year voters wrong in their snubbing of Calipari. I expect both teams to come out wanting to throw haymakers but it will be the team that is able to sustain an elite level of play who will ultimately win.
The Badgers are coming off a great win over Arizona in which they were shooting at an absolutely blistering clip. They shot 55.6% from the floor, including 78.9% for the second half. They also shot 66.7% from 3pt range, including 10-12 in the second half for 83.3% while scoring 85 against a solid defense in Arizona. These stats become even more astounding when you consider the fact that Wisconsin normally shoots around 48% from the floor and 36% from 3. So, I guess the question becomes, "Can Wisconsin continue shooting and scoring at this kind of rate against UK?" I think the answer to that is an emphatic NO. The law of averages alone would tell us that teams can't sustain such a level of play in multiple games. The move to a dome won't likely help their shooting, but more importantly, Kentucky's #1 rated defense has been historic this season and simply won't allow the Badgers to come close to those numbers. My guess is, this game will be played in the 60s or low 70s, with defense ruling the day.
When we look at Wisconsin's personnel, it has to begin with their National Player of the Year candidate, Frank Kaminsky. Kaminsky is a 7-0 234lb senior who can do it all. He is excellent in the post, with multiple moves and excellent footwork. He can step back and hit the mid-range shot consistently. He has range out to the three-pt line as well where he shoots 41.5% from distance. He will likely get a touch every time down the floor. He leads the team in scoring, rebounding, assists, blocks, and 3pt shooting percentage. It's hard to find a category where he's not the leader. I don't think it's an overstatement to say that Wisconsin goes as Kaminsky goes. He sat out one game this year and Wisconsin lost to Rutgers. So, stopping Kaminsky is a major key to beating Wisconsin. Fortunately for UK, the Cats may be better equipped to stop Kaminsky than anyone in the country, considering the Cats have 5 guys who can guard him in Towns (who will likely start on him), Willie Cauley-Stein, Trey Lyles, Dakari Johnson (who guarded him admirably last year), and Marcus Lee from the bench. The second most important player is another forward, Sam Dekker, their 6-9 very mobile power forward. He's second in scoring, third in rebounding, and has an excellent all-around game. He has come on strong as this season has progressed and his play is the main reason, in my opinion, that Wisconsin made it back to the Final Four this season. He was out of his mind in the second half against Arizona, making threes with a hand in his face and finishing with a season and career high 27 points. It should be noted, Dekker's last 2 games have both been season highs in scoring, so he was definitely on a roll in L.A.'s Staple Center. Shooting in Lucas Oil may cool him off. Shooting against Willie and Trey (most likely Willie to start) may also be trouble.
The third forward is a guy who played a bit last season versus UK but was still pretty wet behind the ears, the 6-7 250 Nigel Hayes. He has been starting in the spot vacated by Ben Brust's graduation last year. Wisconsin now runs a more traditional line-up, with three forwards, whereas last season they went with the 3-guard look. Hayes has made the most of his opportunity this season and has become a legitimate threat offensively. He's 3rd on the team in scoring this season and 2nd in rebounding, and he has also proven himself able to step out to the three-pt line, shooting 38% from deep. Hayes is a strong guy, even if he's not tremendously tall. He's only 6-7 but he's 250lbs and is an excellent leaper, which makes him very tough inside. He will likely face Trey Lyles, who can match his quickness and strength and has an edge in height. The starting guards for Wisconsin are Josh Gasser and Bronson Koenig. These two guys are not very impressive looking, but don't let their appearance fool you. Both of these guys are tough and will fight for every inch on the floor. Josh Gasser is a senior this season and he has played well, especially in big spots. He seems to make plays when they're needed most. He doesn't score a huge amount. Actually, his scoring and shooting percentages are down from last year. I think it's likely because he's not sneaking up on anyone this season, having been de-emphasized on scouting reports before, I'm sure. Gasser can shoot the three at 38.4% and he will get on the floor and scrap for loose balls and grab rebounds as well. He's like their glue guy, in my opinion, not impressive statistically but critical to the team's success. The point guard for the latter part of this season has been Bronson Koenig. He has done very well with his opportunity while filling in Traevon Jackson, who is available for the game on Saturday but is still not quite back up to game speed while still recovering from a fractured right foot injury sustained back in early January. Koenig is now tied with Jackson for 4th on the team in scoring and is just hundredths of a percentage point behind Kaminsky in 3pt shooting. He's a better scorer than Gasser, though not as good a rebounder. He's 3rd on the team in assists behind Kaminsky and Jackson. So, when you look closely at this starting 5, one of the most impressive thing is they can ALL shoot the 3 and shoot it well.
Traevon Jackson is likely the most important bench player for Wisconsin in this game. They have the interior covered as well as they can with their starting forwards. They also have Duje Dukan and Vitto Brown coming off the bench to provide some depth at the forward spots as needed. But the biggest trouble, in my opinion, will be Wisconsin's ability (or inability) to keep Kentucky's guards out of the paint without fouling. Jackson is a guy with some quickness and strength. Trouble is, he's only played in 2 games since his injury, and those games were just this past weekend. I think he will be called upon to play more minutes in this game. He only played 9 minutes against UNC and 7 against Arizona. Will he be ready for big minutes in this game? I have some doubts about that. If he is given a more prominent role, will his re-insertion in the line-up be a problem for Wisconsin's chemistry? Also coming from the bench will be Duje Dukan. He has been a solid contributor to Wisconsin all season. He's their top sub according to minutes played as well as production. Dukan is a 6-9 220 senior who has developed into a pretty strong guy over 4 years. He's not going to beat you scoring but he does provide some minutes for any of the forwards who may need a breather. Zak Showalter is a new guy this season coming off the bench for Wisconsin. He's a 6-2 guard who can't shoot very well but comes into the game for ball handling and defense at the shooting guard position. He doesn't play many minutes (only 7.7 per game) but we will likely see him at some point, especially if Wisconsin has the trouble I expect in keeping UK's guards out of the lane with their man to man defense. The final bench player who sees the floor is Vitto Brown. He's a 6-8 237 freshman who has been improving this season but still isn't contributing much. He only plays 6.5 minutes per game. He scores 2 points a game and grabs a rebound or two. He can't shoot the 3. If we see much of Brown, it likely either means Wisconsin is having major foul trouble or the game has gotten out of hand. I doubt either happens, so I also doubt we see much of Brown.
It's difficult to make many significant comparisons to last year's game for multiple reasons. However, we can make a few observations that are relevant. One of those is that Kentucky did an excellent job defending Frank Kaminsky last year. Without Willie Cauley-Stein on the floor, the Cats still basically shut him down. He only finished with 8 points and 5 rebounds in the game. One could legitimately argue that UK is better suited to defend him this season than last. Dakari Johnson spent quite a bit of time on him last year and he's not nearly as mobile as Willie, Karl, or Trey. The guys who nearly killed UK last season were Dekker, Brust, and Jackson. Those three combined for 42 of Wisconsin's 73 points and 5 of their 8 threes. I think Dekker is even more important this season to Wisconsin. For this reason, I fully expect Willie Cauley-Stein to get the assignment of defending him. Regarding the other 2 guys, Brust is gone and Jackson is not fully healthy yet. I am confident that if UK can limit Kaminsky and Dekker, this game becomes academic. That may well be easier said than done, but I think the Cats have the personnel to do it better than anyone else in the nation.
A big question up for debate is this: which of these teams has improved the most? It's not a simple question, in my opinion, even if I think the answer is clearly Kentucky. According to offensive efficiency, Wisconsin has improved by leaps and bounds. They were good last season, mind you, #4 in the nation offensively, but they are ridiculously efficient this season. That is their biggest weapon. They went from an offensive rating of 120.8 to a rating of 127.5, which means they are very efficient. They won't force things. They won't take bad shots. They will take as long as needed to get a good look. But on the other end, Wisconsin is only #55 in defensive efficiency, which is down from last year's #49. They've basically been outscoring teams this season. One could argue that they haven't HAD to play the same kind of defense as last season because their offense is so much better. They might say they can turn on the D if needed. (Arizona's 78 points begs to differ) Kentucky has improved both offensively and defensively over last year. Last year, UK was #10 in offensive efficiency with a 117.6 rating. That has jumped to #5 overall with a 119.4 rating. But the biggest jump has been in defensive efficiency. Last season, the Cats were #41 in defensive efficiency with a rating of 96.9. This season, UK has been #1 most of the year and has a rating of 85.6. (the lower the number, the better) That jump in defensive efficiency is HUGE. Kentucky is the only remaining team with a top 10 rating in both offensive and defensive efficiency. So, we're talking about the BEST offense versus the BEST defense. Who wins that battle? Having said that, it may come down to the other end of the floor. I expect UK to slow down Wisconsin's offense. They won't stop them, but they will be a major cramp to their style. On the other hand, however, UK's offense is #5 and Wisconsin's defense is #55. That may be the end of the floor where UK really causes the Badgers the most problems.
When you look at the personnel changes, I give UK the edge again. Wisconsin lost Ben Brust. Traevon Jackson is not fully healthy. They didn't really add anyone significant. Sam Dekker has vastly improved and will be a key to stop for UK. Nigel Hayes was barely a blip on the radar last season and he has a full year starting under his belt. Bronson Koenig has vastly improved as well, especially since he's been starting for the injured Jackson. Frank Kaminsky didn't have a huge amount of room for improvement, but there has been some. Josh Gasser's numbers are actually worse this season compared to last. Duje Dukan has significantly improved over last season. His scoring and rebounding have both improved. Zak Showalter but contribute last year but he's not much of a threat. Basically, the improvements Wisconsin has made are in individual player improvements. Still, I don't think there is any question they're much better than last season, even if the personnel is the same.
Looking at UK, the Cats lost Julius Randle, James Young, and Alex Poythress is out for the season. UK's all-freshman backcourt last year has another full year under their belt- Andrew Harrison and Aaron Harrison have improved, even though their stats don't tell the story. Andrew has a better a/to ratio and Aaron, while not shooting as much, still has shown a propensity for hitting big shots. Dakari Johnson has improved as well. He's lost weight. He's quicker, he's more mobile, he runs the floor better. Marcus Lee is better than last season, though his minutes have changed little. His scoring is up, his rebounds are up, his shooting is better. If player improvement were the only way UK had improved, I'd give the edge to Wisconsin, but that's far from all. The greatest way UK is better is in the players who will be available now who weren't last season. UK didn't have Willie Cauley-Stein in that game last year due to injury. His defense would have made a difference then and will be huge now. UK now has Karl Towns, who is a much better back to the basket scorer than Randle, a better shot blocker, and a much better interior and outlet passer. UK now has Trey Lyles in the line-up, a 6-10 guy at the 3 who can defend anyone for Wisconsin. UK now has Devin Booker coming in from the bench, a guy who shoots better than James Young by percentage and makes fewer mistakes as well. UK now has Tyler Ulis coming in, who can get under their guards and wreak havoc and can also drive by their guards and cause trouble on the other end. He can also shoot the ball well from 3 and mid-range. And UK's overall depth is much better this season. UK's key subs last year were Poythress, Lee, Hawkins, and Polson. This year the Cats bring in Johnson (who started before), Booker, Ulis, Lee, and still has Hawkins waiting in the wings if needed. This season's depth is significantly better.
What should we expect? Wisconsin is going to play man to man. It's hard to believe, especially when we all watched Karl Towns demolish Notre Dame in the paint, but that's what it will be. I think for Wisconsin to switch to zone would be like admitting defeat, and Bo Ryan is a very stubborn man who may get beat, but won't flinch. That may beat him in this one. The trouble is, Wisconsin can't defend Towns one on one. Kaminsky is NOT going to foul Towns. He just won't. He's too important to their team and he knows it. Dekker lacks the height or strength. Hayes is strong enough but not long enough. If I'm Calipari, I'm feeding the post until they stop Towns. They may be forced to double-team Towns, which means he will need to find the open man. On the other end of the floor, Wisconsin spreads the floor and tries to draw the opponent's big men away from the basket. They will screen and roll. They will back-cut. They will let different players, primarily Kaminsky and Dekker, try to take their man off the dribble with the help of a screen. They will run a lot of pick and roll with those 2 and if we are switching on the screen they will run it against whoever they feel can't guard those guys off the dribble or stop them in the paint. UK's size helps tremendously in this game. Our starting 5 can switch 1-5 on defense without giving up much. Even Kaminsky on one of the Harrisons isn't a huge match-up problem unless the screen is set in the paint, which is rare. The Harrisons can defend Dekker, Hayes, or either guard as well. Lyles, WCS, and Towns can do the same.
Another thing about this game that makes me optimistic is the fact that Wisconsin doesn't have any of those lightning quick guards who can get into the lane at will. Those teams are the ones that seem to cause this particular UK team trouble because of difficulty guarding them off the dribble with our man to man. But this team is filled with guys who are big and strong, but not extremely quick. Big and strong we can handle, in my opinion. Now Wisconsin is extremely efficient offensively, just like Notre Dame, but Notre Dame's 4 guard line-up made life difficult on defense for the Cats. Wisconsin has one more shooter on the floor, though, so attention to detail will be crucial for the Cats. No leaving the corners boys!
Though I think UK has an edge in several ways in this game, I still fully expect this one to go down to the wire. I think the Cats will have a lead down the stretch, but Wisconsin's scoring ability will likely keep them within striking distance the whole way. I think Wisconsin is going to come out of the gate very strong with payback fueling their fire. Last season, Wisconsin took an early lead by as much as 8 and held it the entire first half. The second half went the opposite way, with Kentucky taking the lead and building it to about 8 before the Badgers made a run. Neither team led by more than 8 the entire game. I think Wisconsin will start fast. I fully expect them to take some early threes, trying to build a margin and letting the revenge factor drive them on. If UK can withstand the initial push of Wisconsin and keep it close, I think UK's superior depth and talent will be the key. I also think, as I said above, that Wisconsin's 2 biggest problems will be defending Karl Towns and stopping UK's dribble penetration. Kentucky's biggest problem will be in keeping Wisconsin's Kaminsky and Dekker from really getting going. We need those 2 guys in the teens, not the twenties. I expect a war here but I think the Cats will be able to have a little bit more breathing room than against Notre Dame, but it will still be too close. Vegas' line opened at UK-6. KenPom has the final Kentucky 65 Wisconsin 62. I also expect a close game, but I think the Cats take it in the end. Kentucky 68 Wisconsin 63
Scouting Wisconsin on BigBlueTheory
Head Coach: Bo Ryan 739-227 (.765)
2015 Overall Record: 35-3
2015 Big Ten Record: 16-2
2015 Neutral Record: 10-0
Bo Ryan vs UK all-time: 2-5
UK leads all-time series with Wisconsin 4-1
Last meeting: UK won 74-73 on 4/5/14
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium (67,000)
Indianapolis, IN
Saturday, April 4 @ 8:49 p.m. ET
Television Network: TBS
Commentators: play by play: Jim Nantz, Analyst: Bill Rafftery,
Analyst: Grant Hill, sideline: Tracy Wolfson
UK Radio: Tom Leach, Mike Pratt
Schedule
11/14/14 vs. Northern Kentucky W, 62-31
11/16/14 vs. Chattanooga W, 89-45
11/19/14 vs. Green Bay W, 84-60
11/22/14 vs. Boise State W, 78-54
Battle 4 Atlantis
11/26/14 vs. UAB W, 72-43
11/27/14 vs. Georgetown W, 68-65
11/28/14 vs. Oklahoma W, 69-56
12/03/14 vs. Duke L, 80-70
12/06/14 at Marquette W, 49-38
12/10/14 at Milwaukee W, 93-54
12/13/14 vs. Nicholls W, 86-43
12/22/14 at California W, 68-56
12/28/14 vs. Buffalo W, 68-56
12/31/14 vs. Penn State * W, 89-72
01/04/15 at Northwestern * W, 81-58
01/07/15 vs. Purdue * W, 62-55
01/11/15 at Rutgers * L, 67-62
01/15/15 vs. Nebraska * W, 70-55
01/20/15 vs. Iowa * W, 82-50
01/24/15 at Michigan * W, 69-64 (OT)
01/31/15 at Iowa * W, 74-63
02/03/15 vs. Indiana * W, 92-78
02/07/15 vs. Northwestern * W, 65-50
02/10/15 at Nebraska * W, 65-55
02/15/15 vs. Illinois * W, 68-49
02/18/15 at Penn State * W, 55-47
02/21/15 vs. Minnesota * W, 63-53
02/24/15 at Maryland * L, 59-53
03/01/15 vs. Michigan State * W, 68-61
03/05/15 at Minnesota * W, 76-63
03/08/15 at Ohio State * W, 72-48
Big Ten Tournament
03/13/15 vs. Michigan W, 71-60
03/14/15 vs. Purdue W, 71-51
03/15/15 vs. Michigan State W, 80-69 (OT)
NCAA Tournament
03/20/15 vs. Coastal Carolina W, 86-72
03/22/15 vs. Oregon W, 72-65
03/26/15 vs. North Carolina W, 79-72
03/28/15 vs. Arizona W, 85-78
04/04/15 vs. Kentucky 8:49 p.m. ET
Probable Starters
F #44 Frank Kaminsky 7-0 234 Sr. 18.7pts, 8.0reb, 2.7ast, 1.5blks, .415 3fg
F #15 Sam Dekker 6-9 220 Jr. 13.9pts, 5.5reb, 1.2ast, .338 3fg
F #10 Nigel Hayes 6-7 250 So. 12.4pts, 6.3reb, 2.1ast, .380 3fg
G #21 Josh Gasser 6-3 190 Sr. 6.9pts, 3.4reb, 1.8ast, .384 3fg
G #24 Bronson Koenig 6-3 190 So. 8.6pts, 1.7reb, 2.4ast, .411 3fg
Bench
G #12 Traevon Jackson 6-2 208 Sr. 8.6pts, 1.6reb, 2.6ast, .297 3fg
F #13 Duje Dukan 6-9 220 Sr. 4.8pts, 2.6reb, .318 3fg
G #3 Zak Showalter 6-2 192 So. 2.1pts, 1.3reb, .143 3fg
F #30 Vitto Brown 6-8 237 Fr. 1.9pts, 1.3reb no 3pt threat
Team Stats
Points per game: 72.8 (UK: 74.6)
Points allowed: 57.8 (UK: 53.9)
Scoring margin: +15 (UK: +20.7)
Field goal %: 48.2% (UK: 46.8%)
FG% allowed: 42.6% (UK: 35.2%)
3pt FG%: 36.4% (UK: 34.7%)
3pt% defense: 37.4% (UK: 26.7%)
Free throw %: 76.4 (UK: 72.5%)
Rebounds: 33.4 (UK: 38.4)
Opp Rebounds: 27.7 (UK: 31.1)
Rebound margin: +5.7 (UK: +7.3)
Assists: 12.65 (UK: 14.3)
Turnovers: 7.4 (UK: 10.6)
TOs forced: 9.65 (UK: 13.8)
A/TO Ratio: 1.7 (UK: 1.35)
Steals per game: 4.5 (UK: 6.5)
Blocks per game: 3.3 (UK: 6.9)
Important KenPom Stats for Wisconsin:
Overall Rating: #3
Offensive Efficiency: #1 (127.5)
Defensive Efficiency: #55 (96.4)
Best internal stats:
Turnover %: 12.3% (#1) (they don't turn it over)
2pt%: 55.2% (#7) (they shoot 2pt fgs very well)
FTA/FGA: 22.1% (#1) (they commit fewest fouls per opponent's fg attempt in the nation)
Defensive rebounding: 23.9% (#4) (they don't allow many offensive rebounds)
Worst internal stats:
Turnover %: 16.1% (#327) (They don't turn people over)
Steal %: 7.5% (#318) (They don't force steals)
3pt% defense: 37.4% (#301) (opponents have shot the 3 very well against them)
Block%: 8.5% (#223) (they don't block many shots)
Effective FG% defense: 47.5% (#99) (they allow teams to shoot well)
Common Opponents: Buffalo, UNC
Results: Wisconsin 68 Buffalo 56; Kentucky 71 Buffalo 52
Results: Wisconsin 79 UNC 72; Kentucky 84 UNC 70
Analysis: Well, Kentucky and Calipari have returned to the Final Four yet again. This now makes 4 Final Fours in 6 seasons for UK under Calipari, which is a ridiculous accomplishment in itself. And who do they have as their opponent? It's Wisconsin for the second straight year and they're looking for some pay-back, and have the confidence that they can get it done. I've noticed, however, that the Badgers are too savvy to run their mouths about it too much. That's smart on their part. They may have a slight edge in terms of psychology for this game, though I think the Cats have a bit of their own motivation, wanting to finish the job they started last season and wanting to prove these Coach of the Year voters wrong in their snubbing of Calipari. I expect both teams to come out wanting to throw haymakers but it will be the team that is able to sustain an elite level of play who will ultimately win.
The Badgers are coming off a great win over Arizona in which they were shooting at an absolutely blistering clip. They shot 55.6% from the floor, including 78.9% for the second half. They also shot 66.7% from 3pt range, including 10-12 in the second half for 83.3% while scoring 85 against a solid defense in Arizona. These stats become even more astounding when you consider the fact that Wisconsin normally shoots around 48% from the floor and 36% from 3. So, I guess the question becomes, "Can Wisconsin continue shooting and scoring at this kind of rate against UK?" I think the answer to that is an emphatic NO. The law of averages alone would tell us that teams can't sustain such a level of play in multiple games. The move to a dome won't likely help their shooting, but more importantly, Kentucky's #1 rated defense has been historic this season and simply won't allow the Badgers to come close to those numbers. My guess is, this game will be played in the 60s or low 70s, with defense ruling the day.
When we look at Wisconsin's personnel, it has to begin with their National Player of the Year candidate, Frank Kaminsky. Kaminsky is a 7-0 234lb senior who can do it all. He is excellent in the post, with multiple moves and excellent footwork. He can step back and hit the mid-range shot consistently. He has range out to the three-pt line as well where he shoots 41.5% from distance. He will likely get a touch every time down the floor. He leads the team in scoring, rebounding, assists, blocks, and 3pt shooting percentage. It's hard to find a category where he's not the leader. I don't think it's an overstatement to say that Wisconsin goes as Kaminsky goes. He sat out one game this year and Wisconsin lost to Rutgers. So, stopping Kaminsky is a major key to beating Wisconsin. Fortunately for UK, the Cats may be better equipped to stop Kaminsky than anyone in the country, considering the Cats have 5 guys who can guard him in Towns (who will likely start on him), Willie Cauley-Stein, Trey Lyles, Dakari Johnson (who guarded him admirably last year), and Marcus Lee from the bench. The second most important player is another forward, Sam Dekker, their 6-9 very mobile power forward. He's second in scoring, third in rebounding, and has an excellent all-around game. He has come on strong as this season has progressed and his play is the main reason, in my opinion, that Wisconsin made it back to the Final Four this season. He was out of his mind in the second half against Arizona, making threes with a hand in his face and finishing with a season and career high 27 points. It should be noted, Dekker's last 2 games have both been season highs in scoring, so he was definitely on a roll in L.A.'s Staple Center. Shooting in Lucas Oil may cool him off. Shooting against Willie and Trey (most likely Willie to start) may also be trouble.
The third forward is a guy who played a bit last season versus UK but was still pretty wet behind the ears, the 6-7 250 Nigel Hayes. He has been starting in the spot vacated by Ben Brust's graduation last year. Wisconsin now runs a more traditional line-up, with three forwards, whereas last season they went with the 3-guard look. Hayes has made the most of his opportunity this season and has become a legitimate threat offensively. He's 3rd on the team in scoring this season and 2nd in rebounding, and he has also proven himself able to step out to the three-pt line, shooting 38% from deep. Hayes is a strong guy, even if he's not tremendously tall. He's only 6-7 but he's 250lbs and is an excellent leaper, which makes him very tough inside. He will likely face Trey Lyles, who can match his quickness and strength and has an edge in height. The starting guards for Wisconsin are Josh Gasser and Bronson Koenig. These two guys are not very impressive looking, but don't let their appearance fool you. Both of these guys are tough and will fight for every inch on the floor. Josh Gasser is a senior this season and he has played well, especially in big spots. He seems to make plays when they're needed most. He doesn't score a huge amount. Actually, his scoring and shooting percentages are down from last year. I think it's likely because he's not sneaking up on anyone this season, having been de-emphasized on scouting reports before, I'm sure. Gasser can shoot the three at 38.4% and he will get on the floor and scrap for loose balls and grab rebounds as well. He's like their glue guy, in my opinion, not impressive statistically but critical to the team's success. The point guard for the latter part of this season has been Bronson Koenig. He has done very well with his opportunity while filling in Traevon Jackson, who is available for the game on Saturday but is still not quite back up to game speed while still recovering from a fractured right foot injury sustained back in early January. Koenig is now tied with Jackson for 4th on the team in scoring and is just hundredths of a percentage point behind Kaminsky in 3pt shooting. He's a better scorer than Gasser, though not as good a rebounder. He's 3rd on the team in assists behind Kaminsky and Jackson. So, when you look closely at this starting 5, one of the most impressive thing is they can ALL shoot the 3 and shoot it well.
Traevon Jackson is likely the most important bench player for Wisconsin in this game. They have the interior covered as well as they can with their starting forwards. They also have Duje Dukan and Vitto Brown coming off the bench to provide some depth at the forward spots as needed. But the biggest trouble, in my opinion, will be Wisconsin's ability (or inability) to keep Kentucky's guards out of the paint without fouling. Jackson is a guy with some quickness and strength. Trouble is, he's only played in 2 games since his injury, and those games were just this past weekend. I think he will be called upon to play more minutes in this game. He only played 9 minutes against UNC and 7 against Arizona. Will he be ready for big minutes in this game? I have some doubts about that. If he is given a more prominent role, will his re-insertion in the line-up be a problem for Wisconsin's chemistry? Also coming from the bench will be Duje Dukan. He has been a solid contributor to Wisconsin all season. He's their top sub according to minutes played as well as production. Dukan is a 6-9 220 senior who has developed into a pretty strong guy over 4 years. He's not going to beat you scoring but he does provide some minutes for any of the forwards who may need a breather. Zak Showalter is a new guy this season coming off the bench for Wisconsin. He's a 6-2 guard who can't shoot very well but comes into the game for ball handling and defense at the shooting guard position. He doesn't play many minutes (only 7.7 per game) but we will likely see him at some point, especially if Wisconsin has the trouble I expect in keeping UK's guards out of the lane with their man to man defense. The final bench player who sees the floor is Vitto Brown. He's a 6-8 237 freshman who has been improving this season but still isn't contributing much. He only plays 6.5 minutes per game. He scores 2 points a game and grabs a rebound or two. He can't shoot the 3. If we see much of Brown, it likely either means Wisconsin is having major foul trouble or the game has gotten out of hand. I doubt either happens, so I also doubt we see much of Brown.
It's difficult to make many significant comparisons to last year's game for multiple reasons. However, we can make a few observations that are relevant. One of those is that Kentucky did an excellent job defending Frank Kaminsky last year. Without Willie Cauley-Stein on the floor, the Cats still basically shut him down. He only finished with 8 points and 5 rebounds in the game. One could legitimately argue that UK is better suited to defend him this season than last. Dakari Johnson spent quite a bit of time on him last year and he's not nearly as mobile as Willie, Karl, or Trey. The guys who nearly killed UK last season were Dekker, Brust, and Jackson. Those three combined for 42 of Wisconsin's 73 points and 5 of their 8 threes. I think Dekker is even more important this season to Wisconsin. For this reason, I fully expect Willie Cauley-Stein to get the assignment of defending him. Regarding the other 2 guys, Brust is gone and Jackson is not fully healthy yet. I am confident that if UK can limit Kaminsky and Dekker, this game becomes academic. That may well be easier said than done, but I think the Cats have the personnel to do it better than anyone else in the nation.
A big question up for debate is this: which of these teams has improved the most? It's not a simple question, in my opinion, even if I think the answer is clearly Kentucky. According to offensive efficiency, Wisconsin has improved by leaps and bounds. They were good last season, mind you, #4 in the nation offensively, but they are ridiculously efficient this season. That is their biggest weapon. They went from an offensive rating of 120.8 to a rating of 127.5, which means they are very efficient. They won't force things. They won't take bad shots. They will take as long as needed to get a good look. But on the other end, Wisconsin is only #55 in defensive efficiency, which is down from last year's #49. They've basically been outscoring teams this season. One could argue that they haven't HAD to play the same kind of defense as last season because their offense is so much better. They might say they can turn on the D if needed. (Arizona's 78 points begs to differ) Kentucky has improved both offensively and defensively over last year. Last year, UK was #10 in offensive efficiency with a 117.6 rating. That has jumped to #5 overall with a 119.4 rating. But the biggest jump has been in defensive efficiency. Last season, the Cats were #41 in defensive efficiency with a rating of 96.9. This season, UK has been #1 most of the year and has a rating of 85.6. (the lower the number, the better) That jump in defensive efficiency is HUGE. Kentucky is the only remaining team with a top 10 rating in both offensive and defensive efficiency. So, we're talking about the BEST offense versus the BEST defense. Who wins that battle? Having said that, it may come down to the other end of the floor. I expect UK to slow down Wisconsin's offense. They won't stop them, but they will be a major cramp to their style. On the other hand, however, UK's offense is #5 and Wisconsin's defense is #55. That may be the end of the floor where UK really causes the Badgers the most problems.
When you look at the personnel changes, I give UK the edge again. Wisconsin lost Ben Brust. Traevon Jackson is not fully healthy. They didn't really add anyone significant. Sam Dekker has vastly improved and will be a key to stop for UK. Nigel Hayes was barely a blip on the radar last season and he has a full year starting under his belt. Bronson Koenig has vastly improved as well, especially since he's been starting for the injured Jackson. Frank Kaminsky didn't have a huge amount of room for improvement, but there has been some. Josh Gasser's numbers are actually worse this season compared to last. Duje Dukan has significantly improved over last season. His scoring and rebounding have both improved. Zak Showalter but contribute last year but he's not much of a threat. Basically, the improvements Wisconsin has made are in individual player improvements. Still, I don't think there is any question they're much better than last season, even if the personnel is the same.
Looking at UK, the Cats lost Julius Randle, James Young, and Alex Poythress is out for the season. UK's all-freshman backcourt last year has another full year under their belt- Andrew Harrison and Aaron Harrison have improved, even though their stats don't tell the story. Andrew has a better a/to ratio and Aaron, while not shooting as much, still has shown a propensity for hitting big shots. Dakari Johnson has improved as well. He's lost weight. He's quicker, he's more mobile, he runs the floor better. Marcus Lee is better than last season, though his minutes have changed little. His scoring is up, his rebounds are up, his shooting is better. If player improvement were the only way UK had improved, I'd give the edge to Wisconsin, but that's far from all. The greatest way UK is better is in the players who will be available now who weren't last season. UK didn't have Willie Cauley-Stein in that game last year due to injury. His defense would have made a difference then and will be huge now. UK now has Karl Towns, who is a much better back to the basket scorer than Randle, a better shot blocker, and a much better interior and outlet passer. UK now has Trey Lyles in the line-up, a 6-10 guy at the 3 who can defend anyone for Wisconsin. UK now has Devin Booker coming in from the bench, a guy who shoots better than James Young by percentage and makes fewer mistakes as well. UK now has Tyler Ulis coming in, who can get under their guards and wreak havoc and can also drive by their guards and cause trouble on the other end. He can also shoot the ball well from 3 and mid-range. And UK's overall depth is much better this season. UK's key subs last year were Poythress, Lee, Hawkins, and Polson. This year the Cats bring in Johnson (who started before), Booker, Ulis, Lee, and still has Hawkins waiting in the wings if needed. This season's depth is significantly better.
What should we expect? Wisconsin is going to play man to man. It's hard to believe, especially when we all watched Karl Towns demolish Notre Dame in the paint, but that's what it will be. I think for Wisconsin to switch to zone would be like admitting defeat, and Bo Ryan is a very stubborn man who may get beat, but won't flinch. That may beat him in this one. The trouble is, Wisconsin can't defend Towns one on one. Kaminsky is NOT going to foul Towns. He just won't. He's too important to their team and he knows it. Dekker lacks the height or strength. Hayes is strong enough but not long enough. If I'm Calipari, I'm feeding the post until they stop Towns. They may be forced to double-team Towns, which means he will need to find the open man. On the other end of the floor, Wisconsin spreads the floor and tries to draw the opponent's big men away from the basket. They will screen and roll. They will back-cut. They will let different players, primarily Kaminsky and Dekker, try to take their man off the dribble with the help of a screen. They will run a lot of pick and roll with those 2 and if we are switching on the screen they will run it against whoever they feel can't guard those guys off the dribble or stop them in the paint. UK's size helps tremendously in this game. Our starting 5 can switch 1-5 on defense without giving up much. Even Kaminsky on one of the Harrisons isn't a huge match-up problem unless the screen is set in the paint, which is rare. The Harrisons can defend Dekker, Hayes, or either guard as well. Lyles, WCS, and Towns can do the same.
Another thing about this game that makes me optimistic is the fact that Wisconsin doesn't have any of those lightning quick guards who can get into the lane at will. Those teams are the ones that seem to cause this particular UK team trouble because of difficulty guarding them off the dribble with our man to man. But this team is filled with guys who are big and strong, but not extremely quick. Big and strong we can handle, in my opinion. Now Wisconsin is extremely efficient offensively, just like Notre Dame, but Notre Dame's 4 guard line-up made life difficult on defense for the Cats. Wisconsin has one more shooter on the floor, though, so attention to detail will be crucial for the Cats. No leaving the corners boys!
Though I think UK has an edge in several ways in this game, I still fully expect this one to go down to the wire. I think the Cats will have a lead down the stretch, but Wisconsin's scoring ability will likely keep them within striking distance the whole way. I think Wisconsin is going to come out of the gate very strong with payback fueling their fire. Last season, Wisconsin took an early lead by as much as 8 and held it the entire first half. The second half went the opposite way, with Kentucky taking the lead and building it to about 8 before the Badgers made a run. Neither team led by more than 8 the entire game. I think Wisconsin will start fast. I fully expect them to take some early threes, trying to build a margin and letting the revenge factor drive them on. If UK can withstand the initial push of Wisconsin and keep it close, I think UK's superior depth and talent will be the key. I also think, as I said above, that Wisconsin's 2 biggest problems will be defending Karl Towns and stopping UK's dribble penetration. Kentucky's biggest problem will be in keeping Wisconsin's Kaminsky and Dekker from really getting going. We need those 2 guys in the teens, not the twenties. I expect a war here but I think the Cats will be able to have a little bit more breathing room than against Notre Dame, but it will still be too close. Vegas' line opened at UK-6. KenPom has the final Kentucky 65 Wisconsin 62. I also expect a close game, but I think the Cats take it in the end. Kentucky 68 Wisconsin 63
Scouting Wisconsin on BigBlueTheory
