Pretty much as expected. Nobody lost above us.
Cats stay #6 in AP, Coaches polls
- Thread starter CatEye2010
- Start date
Exactly, I didn't expect any movement upward for us. Wonder if we widened the gap though on teams below us.
With the right matchups, anyone in the top 8 has a legit chance.
Voting points went up. Last week, we were splitting a little bit with Marquette between 6 and 7. Now we are pretty solid in 6th place.
As was stated a week or so ago during a broadcast, the champion is in the top 12 (I think) by this point in a season.
I can't believe South Carolina isn't higher. that was a nice win over MSU.
It's hilarious how they try to put these mid-majors in after 'big' wins like Colorado St, James Madison, SD St, and Utah St now. The Mountain West has more teams than the SEC. UNLV and Grand Canyon are on the cusp too!
Utah State has a trash schedule, then beat Colorado State and are somehow ranked now. Colorado St is only ranked after a win over over-ranked Creighton (otherwise horrible schedule) and James Madison had the win over Michigan St (horrible win now and a horrible schedule)
I just don't get the fascination with schools like this.
It's hilarious how they try to put these mid-majors in after 'big' wins like Colorado St, James Madison, SD St, and Utah St now. The Mountain West has more teams than the SEC. UNLV and Grand Canyon are on the cusp too!
Utah State has a trash schedule, then beat Colorado State and are somehow ranked now. Colorado St is only ranked after a win over over-ranked Creighton (otherwise horrible schedule) and James Madison had the win over Michigan St (horrible win now and a horrible schedule)
I just don't get the fascination with schools like this.
Local NC sports radio making the case that UNC should be ranked ahead of UK and UT because they beat Oklahoma and UT.
Lol.
The door is THAT WAY ya goobers--------->
Lol.
The door is THAT WAY ya goobers--------->
Anybody think the Big 12 should have 6 teams in the top 25? I mean, sure, Houston, KU, OU, and probably Baylor are deserving for sure. But I'm not sold on BYU or TX. There are SEC teams I feel are better than those two. Just my admittedly biased and somewhat uneducated opinion.
I thought we beat UNC. I guess this goober missed it.
Houston, Perdue, Arizona have built quite a sizable gap in adjusted efficiency margins.
It would be hard to not include those three
After that, there's probably 3-5 more teams yet to be determined.
Maybe they want some "new blood" in the rankings...and they're tired of all of us who actually deserve to be there.
GO BIG BLUE!!!💙💙💙
If the tournament started today Texas probably wouldn't even be in it. Yet they are still ranked at #25.
Huh?
I need the math involved. UNC has 3 losses, and we beat them head to head.
Gotta love Kenpom. We are 2 spots ahead of 9-6 MSU.
But but but they have one conference title in 43 years! They are so good! /sNuff said...
James Madison looked like a legit tournament team for real. Like the kind that will make some 3 seed sweat the first round.
Strange team. Every win has been a massive blowout which would suggest they would beat some good teams as well but every time they faced a good team they've lost outside of Baylor.
Indeed. Baylor is far and away their best win. They are still up there based on Izzo effect only.
The wild thing is they are a projected 9 right now on Bracket Matrix.
Picture you are a 1 seed. Those teams should beat Michigan St but that is not a second round opponent you really want to see especially given their KP rating would suggest they are a bit better than that. Despite the 9-6 record.
Picture you are a 1 seed. Those teams should beat Michigan St but that is not a second round opponent you really want to see especially given their KP rating would suggest they are a bit better than that. Despite the 9-6 record.
I watched the Michigan State game and then I believe it was Buffalo they played one night. It was a random game I caught on CBS sports or Fox Sports or something. The look like a typical small school that has the right mix of players this year. Obviously they have to win their conference or it won’t matter. I’m sure the Sun Belt will be a win bid conference.
Most of the top 10 are legitimate at this point because we're 13-14 games in and we've seen who these teams are. Of the top 10, I don't think Houston is a legitimate title contender. They may be pretty good but we really don't know yet. They've played 14 games. Who have they played?
vs UL Monroe W84-31
vs Texas A&M-CC W82-50
vs Stetson W79-48
vs Towson W65-49
vs Utah W76-66
vs Dayton W69-55
vs Montana W79-44
@ Xavier W66-60
vs Rice W75-39
vs Jackson St W89-55
vs Texas A&M W70-66
vs Texas St W72-37
vs Penn W81-42
vs West Virginia W89-55
Massey's composite ratings say Houston has played the 145th best schedule. They're rated #1 based on large win margins over crappy to average teams. By that same metric, Purdue has played the #1 schedule, Kansas has played the #25 schedule, UConn has played the #21 schedule, Arizona has played the #3 schedule, Tennessee has played the #11 schedule. UK has played the #50 schedule, UNC has played the #4 schedule. Houston may be good. But maybe not. The best team they've played is Dayton, and we don't know much about them. They scraped by Texas AM by 4, and they played the Aggies in Houston. This is the same A&M team that just got whipped by LSU by 15 in College Station.
I also don't think Oklahoma or Illinois are legit title contenders. Those 2 might be Sweet 16 contenders, but I don't think either have what it takes to make a title run. I also struggle saying "contender" and Tennessee in the same sentence. I think they're pretty good (and have been tested- losing 3) but they've never made a Final Four and I don't see that changing this season.
True contenders... Purdue, Kansas, UConn, Arizona, Kentucky.
Houston has held opponents to 40.2% from 2 and 26.4% from 3. They also have forced turnovers on nearly 28% of their opponents possessions.
We can make the argument they have done this vs cupcakes but how many cupcakes do we watch come into Rupp and shoot lights out?
And this season isn't an outlier either. They have held teams to low FG% from 2 and 3 for years now. For the past four years, they have been top 10 in BOTH opponent 2pt FG% and 3 pt FG%.
There's enough data to clearly suggest this is an elite defensive team.
This will bear out when they win the Big 12.
We can make the argument they have done this vs cupcakes but how many cupcakes do we watch come into Rupp and shoot lights out?
And this season isn't an outlier either. They have held teams to low FG% from 2 and 3 for years now. For the past four years, they have been top 10 in BOTH opponent 2pt FG% and 3 pt FG%.
There's enough data to clearly suggest this is an elite defensive team.
This will bear out when they win the Big 12.
Yeah, you make a good argument The_Answer. I do think they're a good team. I'm just not sold on "title contender." And yes, the cupcakes always seem to come to Rupp and shoot lights out, but we both know the "Fertita Center effect" (holds 7,000) does not compare with the "Rupp Arena effect." Still, there is no doubt this is a good defensive team. I just don't know how good they really are at this point. Are they top 25? Definitely. Are they top 10? Maybe. Are they top 5? Need more info. It's a fun discussion though.
On a serious note , you all are all aboard the train right now , but as soon as you lose a game , how many are gonna be on the fire Cal topic again?
Yeah, you make a good argument The_Answer. I do think they're a good team. I'm just not sold on "title contender." And yes, the cupcakes always seem to come to Rupp and shoot lights out, but we both know the "Fertita Center effect" (holds 7,000) does not compare with the "Rupp Arena effect." Still, there is no doubt this is a good defensive team. I just don't know how good they really are at this point. Are they top 25? Definitely. Are they top 10? Maybe. Are they top 5? Need more info. It's a fun discussion though.
haha yeah I mean who knows exactly.
I feel like I'm living in some opposite world. People have been generally fully on board with this team and I am the one that's kinda of .........I dunno lol. We have a really good team no doubt. But I am not so certain we would be in the conversation of title contenders currently.
Normally this place is the complete opposite and I'm the optimistic one lol.
According to Kenpom there are 10 teams right now with UK, KU, and UConn actually not being any of them which is surprising.
The 10 teams are:
Houston
Purdue
Arizona
Tennessee
Auburn
Illinois
UNC
BYU
Duke
Creighton
UK is 8 in adj0 and 43 in adjD
KU is 7th in adjD, but only 35th in adj0
UConn is 3rd in adj0, but only 38th in adjD
Other similar teams are:
Marquette 26th in adj0 and 12th in adjD
Wisconsin 7th in adj0 but 35th in adjD
Iowa State 5th in adjD, but only 52nd in adj0
Oklahoma 14th in adjD, but only 43rd in adj0
Here's one that's could be seen as a shocker, but Izzo's teams have had a tendency at times to start out slow, so it makes some sense, but Michigan State is close to being a contender under kenpom. They are currently at 30th in adj0 and 24th in adjD. They are going to be seemingly testing this 25/25 theory all season long. They do have quite a tough B10 schedule to navigate through. @Illinois and @Wisconsin in 2 of their next 5 games. Overall they've been a bit of an underachiever this season. Still, looking at their roster it's hard to see them as a true contender, but they should be a tournament team.
The 10 teams are:
Houston
Purdue
Arizona
Tennessee
Auburn
Illinois
UNC
BYU
Duke
Creighton
UK is 8 in adj0 and 43 in adjD
KU is 7th in adjD, but only 35th in adj0
UConn is 3rd in adj0, but only 38th in adjD
Other similar teams are:
Marquette 26th in adj0 and 12th in adjD
Wisconsin 7th in adj0 but 35th in adjD
Iowa State 5th in adjD, but only 52nd in adj0
Oklahoma 14th in adjD, but only 43rd in adj0
Here's one that's could be seen as a shocker, but Izzo's teams have had a tendency at times to start out slow, so it makes some sense, but Michigan State is close to being a contender under kenpom. They are currently at 30th in adj0 and 24th in adjD. They are going to be seemingly testing this 25/25 theory all season long. They do have quite a tough B10 schedule to navigate through. @Illinois and @Wisconsin in 2 of their next 5 games. Overall they've been a bit of an underachiever this season. Still, looking at their roster it's hard to see them as a true contender, but they should be a tournament team.
I think that those Kenpom numbers for 25/25 are slightly skewed as I believe it is based on post-tournament rankings. So teams ranked in the 40s for example will have a larger sample size and more games than others to rise. The champion typically rises 10-15 spots in a respective category given a hot tourney run (UCLA a few years ago for example).
Usually teams that make it to the final 4 have risen enough to all qualify for the 25/25 standing despite a large sample size of not being in it from what I have noticed (without running numbers on it obviously because I’m not a nerd)
Edit: I am a bit of a nerd and looked at 2022 UNC who ended up 35th in defense after starting the tourney at 76. Who knows what they would’ve finished if they held off KU but a 41 spot jump is my reason for pause on that metric.
Purdue, zona, UConn, KU and UK vs the field I’ll take those 5 probably. Zona and Houston next tier
I think the reason for making massive jumps in the tournament is because you are facing really good teams and if you do well while facing those teams you can jump pretty high. Actually people keep using ranking but really this stuff isn't linear. We really should be looking at how much the actual efficiency figure moved up/down.
The 25/25 shouldn't be a hard set rule. The bottom line is the top teams in efficiency margins have both top offenses and top defenses and they are more likely than not to be the teams contending for titles.
The 25/25 shouldn't be a hard set rule. The bottom line is the top teams in efficiency margins have both top offenses and top defenses and they are more likely than not to be the teams contending for titles.
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