Calipari stating multiple times that "The platoon thing cost us in recruiting". Who did it cost us?

[JPScott]

So, basically losing Poy and the platoon hurt 2015 UK significantly.

Certainly losing Poythress was a problem, but my argument is that UK still could have continued to platoon and had been successful even after Poythress' injury. Why do I think that? Because for many of the games after he went down they largely did continue to platoon and were still very successful. (not as successful as early on but still extremely good and better than any other Calipari team has performed.)

It was only when they went away from platooning that their efficiency began to sputter. I mentioned that during the season, soon after Poythress went down, I started to track UK's substitutions because I felt strongly that the benefits of continuing to platoon far outweighed any negatives, especially compared to going back to a standard Calipari lineup.

Below is the data comparing the different styles and the resulting point differentials.

Obviously I don't expect UK to maintain a +30 point differential running platoons but even with some form of modified platoons they were still very effective.

What was clear was that just going with free substitutions, which Cal predominantly did against Ole Miss at home and Texas A&M on the road (teams that ended up 5th and 6th in the SEC) was not effective. Both those games went into overtime.

As mentioned, around that point I gave up trying to track how the team performed because it became increasingly difficult to characterize Calipari's substitution patterns. He might start with platoons for two or three rotations but then cut it short, or started to pull individual players etc.

 

[JPScott]

Those are raw PPP figures not weighted, correct?

I would offer that one reason opponents' PPP improved was that they got better at exploiting our switching defense. Savvy teams would work the ball until they got a preferred matchup, then attack.

This doesn't negate your points about platooning, only mix in additional moving parts.

Weighted to what? The fact that I'm using possessions implies that it's already weighted to the game pace.

To your second point, obviously there's a lot of things at play which could impact the numbers, and it's hard to test out theories of how doing things differently would have turned out, because they only get to try it once.

As some have said, one can't just look at the numbers and know for sure what the issues were. However I can say that as a close observer of that season, and in particular of the whole concept of using platoons, it was very obvious to me at least that the more Calipari tinkered with the lineup, the worse they played as a team.

 

[Aike]

Weighted to what? The fact that I'm using possessions implies that it's already weighted to the game pace.

To your second point, obviously there's a lot of things at play which could impact the numbers, and it's hard to test out theories of how doing things differently would have turned out, because they only get to try it once.

As some have said, one can't just look at the numbers and know for sure what the issues were. However I can say that as a close observer of that season, and in particular of the whole concept of using platoons, it was very obvious to me at least that the more Calipari tinkered with the lineup, the worse they played as a team.

Weighted to SOS. Raw PPP differential should be better vs. weaker competition, all else being equal.

 

[Cowtown Cat]

Certainly losing Poythress was a problem, but my argument is that UK still could have continued to platoon and had been successful even after Poythress' injury. Why do I think that? Because for many of the games after he went down they largely did continue to platoon and were still very successful. (not as successful as early on but still extremely good and better than any other Calipari team has performed.)

It was only when they went away from platooning that their efficiency began to sputter. I mentioned that during the season, soon after Poythress went down, I started to track UK's substitutions because I felt strongly that the benefits of continuing to platoon far outweighed any negatives, especially compared to going back to a standard Calipari lineup.

Below is the data comparing the different styles and the resulting point differentials.

Obviously I don't expect UK to maintain a +30 point differential running platoons but even with some form of modified platoons they were still very effective.

What was clear was that just going with free substitutions, which Cal predominantly did against Ole Miss at home and Texas A&M on the road (teams that ended up 5th and 6th in the SEC) was not effective. Both those games went into overtime.

As mentioned, around that point I gave up trying to track how the team performed because it became increasingly difficult to characterize Calipari's substitution patterns. He might start with platoons for two or three rotations but then cut it short, or started to pull individual players etc.

Oh, I definitely agree. Like you said (I believe you did anyway lol) Arizona, Duke and Wisconsin were just about equal to us 1 thru 5. 1 thru 10 + was our strength. I guess he would have had to go with Willis. Willis was an excellent post feeder, even as a frosh, I'll add.

 

[JPScott]

Weighted to SOS. Raw PPP differential should be better vs. weaker competition, all else being equal.

That's true, but it's hard to do that given that there's no universally accepted measure of how strong an opponent really is (same issue on the other thread about the NCAA committee.)

But that's part of the reason why I like, when comparing one team to another, to look at the complete season. This I think is more relevant in that it does show, for example, how a team performs in December compared to how another team performed in December. The assumption being that at similar points during the season, the strength of opposition was largely similar.

 

[Cowtown Cat]

One would have to believe that, that frontline of KAT, WCS and POY would've absolutely nasty in March. My goodness.