Best Argument for this Year's Team Being Good

[thedahc]

I know the arguments against this year's team:
-Too young
-"Cal can't coach" (don't agree)
-No leaders with experience

However, the argument I think is the best for this team to potentially be pretty good is just pure talent. Potentially enough talent to overcome some of their perceived limitations.

The last two years teams have not been young or freshman oriented. Playing only 2 or 1 freshman in the Top 7 so youth could not have been their problem.

Let's look at the recent top 7 minutes played per recent team and their National Ranking in their class. I know this doesn't account for experience, I am just using it as a metric of pure potential talent. I know this does not equal results but I thought it was interesting.

Also any unranked player I gave a value of 151 to since Rivals only rates the Top 150. I also only used players currently on the team.

2021 (avg ranking 74.43. Only 1 freshman in Top 7)
Grady- 65th
Tshiebwe- 26th
Wheeler- 91st
Tyty- 8th
Mintz- NR (151)
Brooks- 29th
Toppin- NR (151)

2022 (avg ranking 84.14. Only 2 freshman in top 7)
Tshiebwe- 26th
Wallace- 8th
Toppin- NR (151)
Wheeler- 91st
Reeves- NR (151)
Livingston- 11th
Fredrick- NR (151)

2023 (avg ranking 34.57. 5 freshman top 7) or w/ Reeves (avg ranking 52.14. 4 freshman top 7)
Wagner- 6th
Edwards- 3rd
Dillingham- 15th
Thiero- NR (151)
Onyenso- 37th
Sheppard- 28th or Reeves- NR (151)
Bradshaw- 2nd

 

[cal=8]

Every year we're ranked top 5 and end up, well you know how the past few years have went. This year we're ranked what 24th in the pre-season and projected to be an 8 seed which means we're definitely going to be good. There! My best argument. Probably be a top 5 team by Dec. And a #1 seed making the final 4.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Good analysis OP.

 

[SemperFiCat]

My hope is the team just gels amazingly well and kinda finds some magic. Something like 'they're too young to know they aren't supposed to be this good together already' kinda thing.

But my hunch and gut tells me the chances of it being a points padding AAU type ish show is probably much greater.

I hope we get lucky!

 

[bucsrule8872]

I’m trying to stay positive.

I keep telling myself young talented players are better to have than mediocre experienced players.

Hope that proves to be true this season.

 

[thedahc]

I’m trying to stay positive.

I keep telling myself young talented players are better to have than mediocre experienced players.

Hope that proves to be true this season.

That's where I'm at

 

[bpfree]

I look at every other roster and find massive holes just like UK's. I'm sure someone will be good, but right now it looks like every team has downgraded from last year.

 

[BlueSince92]

That’s encouraging but my main beef with Cal is not covered by any of your bullets. It’s that he runs a system that just can’t work without having both multiple bruisers in the paint and multiple high-percentage perimeter shooters who can share the floor and create for themselves (and he’s gotten stellar at never having those together).

Getting Cyril will go a long way towards the first one, at least.

And I guess there’s always the chance that Cal really will hand Welch the reins on offense and we’ll play a system that works in the real world for the players we have. If so that average rating boost could go a long way. Buy I’m not holding my breath.

Good insight anyway.

 

[UKBB4Ever]

Every year we're ranked top 5 and end up, well you know how the past few years have went. This year we're ranked what 24th in the pre-season and projected to be an 8 seed which means we're definitely going to be good. There! My best argument. Probably be a top 5 team by Dec. And a #1 seed making the final 4.

How have they "went"? The CHC seems to whine about the last 5 seasons. "19 Very good team. Lost in overtime in the E8 game. '20 was a great team. Getting better every game. Won the SEC by 3 games. Covid killed their chances. '21 was just awful. No other way to describe it. Covid, injuries and over rated recruits and a soft as Charmin transfer. Just a terrible season. '22 was a very good season. Blew out UNC, Kansas and UT. UL was afraid to play us so we blew out Western instead. Earned a 2 seed. '23 was a disappointment but probably overachieved with the talent.

Cal ditched the leftover approach to recruiting and now we have some real UK talent coming in. So good that marginal players from the portal are afraid to come and compete.

We may be young but I'll take talented young over experienced Wheeler, Toppin, Collins, Brooks, Reeves, Frederick types everyday.

Next year's team is going to be very good and very exciting. Can't wait!!

 

[JonathanW]

Rankings can be, well, wrong. It's all speculation.
But also, every class isn't equal, some are better than others, some have more top end talent, some may have less top end talent but are deeper.

That said, I think it's fair to speculate how this group, this team might compare to others. The 2 other UK FR dominated teams were 2014 & 2018.
2014 was the Harrison twins, Randle and Young, all top 10-12 guys, then Johnson and Lee top 40 guys, and Willis and Hawkins, so 8 FR. Those 8 were added to 2 good Sophs (WCS and Poythress), as well as 2 SRs (one of whom a former walk-on) in Polson & Hood.
The 2018 FR group was Knox, Washington, Diallo, Green, Vanderbilt, SGA & Richards. So 7 top 50 guys, but maybe only 1 top 10. Those 7 were added to Sophs Gabriel, SKJ and Wynyard.

Both teams had their struggles, 29-11 & 26-11. Of course we would like to do better than that. Although 2014 did finish strong (runner-up).
In order of impact on the team, I would rank them as:
2014: Randle, Young, Aaron H, Andrew H, WCS, Poythress, Johnson,
2018: SGA, Knox, PJ, Green, Diallo, Vanderbilt, Gabriel, Richards, SKJ

I speculate, with our current 9 (including 7 FR) this year, to rank them:
2024: Edwards, Wagner, Onyenso, Bradshaw, Dillingham, Theiro, Sheppard, Burks, Hart
I think this group does look comparable to those 2 teams in total amount of talent. And while not returning as much as 2014, isn't that far back of 2018.
But if we can add 1 or 2 more experience players, especially if a "leader" type of player, that could make a big impact.

 

[UK90]

It all comes down to how good these mega-hyped freshmen are. Because we’ve got no back up plan.

As we’ve learned, there can be a huge difference in how good mega-hyped 5-star hotshot recruits turn out to be. Sometimes they’re Skal and Whitney, other times they’re AD and MKG …and you don’t know which version you have until we’ll after the season begins.

But, yes, I still think this team might be damn good …but only if these freshman fully meet and exceed their hype.

 

[UKBB4Ever]

That’s encouraging but my main beef with Cal is not covered by any of your bullets. It’s that he runs a system that just can’t work without having both multiple bruisers in the paint and multiple high-percentage perimeter shooters who can share the floor and create for themselves (and he’s gotten stellar at never having those together).

Getting Cyril will go a long way towards the first one, at least.

And I guess there’s always the chance that Cal really will hand Welch the reins on offense and we’ll play a system that works in the real world for the players we have. If so that average rating boost could go a long way. Buy I’m not holding my breath.

Good insight anyway.

Nothing wrong with our system. Averaged almost 80 points per game in '22 and the same as Kansas in '23, about 75 points.

Some whine that we should like Ark. Well, we do. Musselman and Cal's offense is almost the exact same offense.

Some see some offense from 40 years ago being played by an upstart and call it "modern".

Cal is a great coach and always has been. He beat our '96 team with one player and 4 ball boys. Cal has taken every school he's coached to the FF. None of that is by luck. What's anyone done at UMass before or after Cal? What has anyone done at Memphis since Cal left?

The problem we have had the last 3 seasons has been defense. Defense is not going to be a problem next season.

But get your licks in now. The '23-24 season is going to be a dreadful season for the CHC.

 

[Ocornett]

That’s encouraging but my main beef with Cal is not covered by any of your bullets. It’s that he runs a system that just can’t work without having both multiple bruisers in the paint and multiple high-percentage perimeter shooters who can share the floor and create for themselves (and he’s gotten stellar at never having those together).

Getting Cyril will go a long way towards the first one, at least.

And I guess there’s always the chance that Cal really will hand Welch the reins on offense and we’ll play a system that works in the real world for the players we have. If so that average rating boost could go a long way. Buy I’m not holding my breath.

Good insight anyway.

This is when the Cal bashing began. I’m sure there is more to come.

 

[Kybluedude]

I think with the youth they will be all in for everybody. Great chemistry.

Also all the national press about their youth will motivate them. They will love it. Will be all in on the scouting report and coaching. I think they will really work hard.

Fearless at that age.

It will be very exciting.

 

[thedahc]

Nothing wrong with our system. Averaged almost 80 points per game in '22 and the same as Kansas in '23, about 75 points.

Some whine that we should like Ark. Well, we do. Musselman and Cal's offense is almost the exact same offense.

Some see some offense from 40 years ago being played by an upstart and call it "modern".

Cal is a great coach and always has been. He beat our '96 team with one player and 4 ball boys. Cal has taken every school he's coached to the FF. None of that is by luck. What's anyone done at UMass before or after Cal? What has anyone done at Memphis since Cal left?

The problem we have had the last 3 seasons has been defense. Defense is not going to be a problem next season.

But get your licks in now. The '23-24 season is going to be a dreadful season for the CHC.

I see @cornbreadnmilk laughing at this post. Would love to know which fact is not true or is laughable. It is actually a pretty solid post with actual information.

So @cornbreadnmilk, did we avg 80 in '22 did we avg same as Kansas in '23?

Did Cal beat the greatest college team ever (in my opinion) with just Marcus Camby?

Was UMASS good before? Have they been good since?

Which part were you laughing at. Would love to know.

 

[BlueSince92]

This is when the Cal bashing began. I’m sure there is more to come.

A thousand blessings to your idol Cal and may he live forever.

 

[track42]

I see @cornbreadnmilk laughing at this post. Would love to know which fact is not true or is laughable. It is actually a pretty solid post with actual information.

So @cornbreadnmilk, did we avg 80 in '22 did we avg same as Kansas in '23?

Did Cal beat the greatest college team ever (in my opinion) with just Marcus Camby?

Was UMASS good before? Have they been good since?

Which part were you laughing at. Would love to know.

How much did UK average in the postseason with the game on the line the last several seasons?

 

[cats2010]

I stopped reading after you disagreed with cal can’t coach!!!

 

[travisbickle]

My two biggest hopes:

1) The young guys are too young to know what their limitations should be. Hopefully they embrace that and run with it. “Young and dumb and full of….” and all that.

2) Welch has a Robic-like effect on the team behind the scenes with player development and in game coaching.

 

[deep3]

My two biggest hopes:

1) The young guys are too young to know what their limitations should be. Hopefully they embrace that and run with it. “Young and dumb and full of….” and all that.

2) Welch has a Robic-like effect on the team behind the scenes with player development and in game coaching.

Point 2 is really imo what it will come down to.

 

[cal=8]

How have they "went"? The CHC seems to whine about the last 5 seasons. "19 Very good team. Lost in overtime in the E8 game. '20 was a great team. Getting better every game. Won the SEC by 3 games. Covid killed their chances. '21 was just awful. No other way to describe it. Covid, injuries and over rated recruits and a soft as Charmin transfer. Just a terrible season. '22 was a very good season. Blew out UNC, Kansas and UT. UL was afraid to play us so we blew out Western instead. Earned a 2 seed. '23 was a disappointment but probably overachieved with the talent.

Cal ditched the leftover approach to recruiting and now we have some real UK talent coming in. So good that marginal players from the portal are afraid to come and compete.

We may be young but I'll take talented young over experienced Wheeler, Toppin, Collins, Brooks, Reeves, Frederick types everyday.

Next year's team is going to be very good and very exciting. Can't wait!!

The past three years have sucked. Don't be delusional.

 

[Big Cat fan]

I just think when you take a look a Kentucky this off-season the most unnoticed thing people haven't thought about is the big plays and shots, Waggy made in the spring all star games, and tournament games. He's big time and still learning. He was hitting game winners for 3s. I also think Edward's is the best all around talent we had since Fox. I'm gonna go ahead and say it, he'll be better than anyone in the SEC this year by the first month of league play.

I think Cal will focus on this team. I think maybe he promised his wife if he can't get it done in a big way he'll move on. I think he finally knows he has something to prove.

 

[Mike-D]

I see @cornbreadnmilk laughing at this post. Would love to know which fact is not true or is laughable. It is actually a pretty solid post with actual information.

So @cornbreadnmilk, did we avg 80 in '22 did we avg same as Kansas in '23?

Did Cal beat the greatest college team ever (in my opinion) with just Marcus Camby?

Was UMASS good before? Have they been good since?

Which part were you laughing at. Would love to know.

You really think we have the same version of Cal that UMass had in 1996?

 

[kyjeff1]

Unless Cal relinquishes the Offense to Welch and he manages to bring in a few really good veterans, I don't see any way this team is any good.
I get it, Edwards and Wagner have some serious talent, but they have never played at this level and the SEC is much better than it was in 2014 and 2018.
We talk about how Cal is better with young teams (he's not), but that 2022 team had a good record and was a 2 seed. Tyty was good, but the veterans on that team had damn good seasons, including Wheeler.
This 23/24 team could very well finish with 15 losses and miss the tournament, in fact, that’s the most likely outcome based on the projected line-up.
Better hope Edwards and/or Wagner don't get injured.
Hopefully this will he the final nail in Cal's tenure here. He’s a huge fraud.

 

[Kycatspaws]

This is another young team with a lot raw talent. But a pretty high bar to meet.
Could go either way I suppose. About time the ball bounces the Wildcats way for a change though.

 

[cal=8]

This is another young team with a lot raw talent. But a pretty high bar to meet.
Could go either way I suppose. About time the ball bounces the Wildcats way for a change though.

I agree. I like the fact we have an all new roster and we're long overdue for some good luck. I just hope we can find one more shooter and some strength in the post.

 

[Mike-D]

I agree. I like the fact we have an all new roster and we're long overdue for some good luck. I just hope we can find one more shooter and some strength in the post.

I dont like that we have an all new roster. Cal has never had an all-new roster and won big besides 2009, and he had arguably 2 transcendent players on that team.

 

[cal=8]

I dont like that we have an all new roster. Cal has never had an all-new roster and won big besides 2009, and he had arguably 2 transcendent players on that team.

I'd rather have some experience but after the last three years I'm liking the fresh start. I don't think the core of our team were good enough for Ky Basketball excluding Oscar. I was really hoping to add some experience via the portal and I'm hoping Cal can get it figured out but yea I'm glad we have an all new team. Let's put the past behind us and see what happens.

 

[track42]

I'd rather have some experience but after the last three years I'm liking the fresh start. I don't think the core of our team were good enough for Ky Basketball excluding Oscar. I was really hoping to add some experience via the portal and I'm hoping Cal can get it figured out but yea I'm glad we have an all new team. Let's put the past behind us and see what happens.

I think Reeves was good.

 

[cal=8]

I think Reeves was good.

He was good at Arkansas (37 points) that's for sure but he obviously doesn't want to be at Ky.

 

[CincyUKFan]

My guy wants to dive into analytics after making one of his premises that Cal can coach. You lost most of us there. Didn’t read those analytics after seeing you disagreeing with the idea that Cal can’t coach.

 

[Dead Cat Bounce]

If I were really in the mood to drink the Kool-Aid, and if I had a mind to get good and drunk, I’d pour it like this:

1) As dejected fans, we have worked so hard to convince ourselves that the class of 2023 is weak and that five-star players don’t always work out, that we have genuinely underestimated DJ, Dillingham, Edwards, Bradshaw, and Reed.
2) Ugo and Thiero are players uniquely built to make a big sophomore leap.
3) Our roster has more complementary parts than the last couple of years, including perimeter players who can beat defenders off the dribble and finish at the rim, and bigs who don’t need to camp out in the paint.
4) Welch is the real deal. A difference maker.
5) The latecomers—Burks and Hart—can make meaningful contributions.
6) Cyril is a ******* kraken.
7) Cal won’t let Wagner flame out of the tournament.
8) The roster is not yet complete.

40-0.

 

[cal=8]

If I were really in the mood to drink the Kool-Aid, and if I had a mind to get good and drunk, I’d pour it like this:

1) As dejected fans, we have worked so hard to convince ourselves that the class of 2023 is weak and that five-star players don’t always work out, that we have genuinely underestimated DJ, Dillingham, Edwards, Bradshaw, and Reed.
2) Ugo and Thiero are players uniquely built to make a big sophomore leap.
3) Our roster has more complementary parts than the last couple of years, including perimeter players who can beat defenders off the dribble and finish at the rim, and bigs who don’t need to camp out in the paint.
4) Welch is the real deal. A difference maker.
5) The latecomers—Burks and Hart—can make meaningful contributions.
6) Cyril is a ******* kraken.
7) Cal won’t let Wagner flame out of the tournament.
8) The roster is not yet complete.

40-0.

43-0 you forgot the Canada games brah.

 

[thedahc]

I think Reeves was good.

Yep and I still want him back

 

[bucsrule8872]

I would really like to have Reeves back. He is definitely needed.

But I just can’t see him coming back.

I just hope we can get a decent replacement, like Mulcahy.

 

[Jamal Mercer]

I know the arguments against this year's team:
-Too young
-"Cal can't coach" (don't agree)
-No leaders with experience

However, the argument I think is the best for this team to potentially be pretty good is just pure talent. Potentially enough talent to overcome some of their perceived limitations.

The last two years teams have not been young or freshman oriented. Playing only 2 or 1 freshman in the Top 7 so youth could not have been their problem.

Let's look at the recent top 7 minutes played per recent team and their National Ranking in their class. I know this doesn't account for experience, I am just using it as a metric of pure potential talent. I know this does not equal results but I thought it was interesting.

Also any unranked player I gave a value of 151 to since Rivals only rates the Top 150. I also only used players currently on the team.

2021 (avg ranking 74.43. Only 1 freshman in Top 7)
Grady- 65th
Tshiebwe- 26th
Wheeler- 91st
Tyty- 8th
Mintz- NR (151)
Brooks- 29th
Toppin- NR (151)

2022 (avg ranking 84.14. Only 2 freshman in top 7)
Tshiebwe- 26th
Wallace- 8th
Toppin- NR (151)
Wheeler- 91st
Reeves- NR (151)
Livingston- 11th
Fredrick- NR (151)

2023 (avg ranking 34.57. 5 freshman top 7) or w/ Reeves (avg ranking 52.14. 4 freshman top 7)
Wagner- 6th
Edwards- 3rd
Dillingham- 15th
Thiero- NR (151)
Onyenso- 37th
Sheppard- 28th or Reeves- NR (151)
Bradshaw- 2nd

Great post, backed up with some numbers.

This does give me a little hope. Thanks OP.

 

[docholiday51]

Rankings can be, well, wrong. It's all speculation.
But also, every class isn't equal, some are better than others, some have more top end talent, some may have less top end talent but are deeper.

That said, I think it's fair to speculate how this group, this team might compare to others. The 2 other UK FR dominated teams were 2014 & 2018.
2014 was the Harrison twins, Randle and Young, all top 10-12 guys, then Johnson and Lee top 40 guys, and Willis and Hawkins, so 8 FR. Those 8 were added to 2 good Sophs (WCS and Poythress), as well as 2 SRs (one of whom a former walk-on) in Polson & Hood.
The 2018 FR group was Knox, Washington, Diallo, Green, Vanderbilt, SGA & Richards. So 7 top 50 guys, but maybe only 1 top 10. Those 7 were added to Sophs Gabriel, SKJ and Wynyard.

Both teams had their struggles, 29-11 & 26-11. Of course we would like to do better than that. Although 2014 did finish strong (runner-up).
In order of impact on the team, I would rank them as:
2014: Randle, Young, Aaron H, Andrew H, WCS, Poythress, Johnson,
2018: SGA, Knox, PJ, Green, Diallo, Vanderbilt, Gabriel, Richards, SKJ

I speculate, with our current 9 (including 7 FR) this year, to rank them:
2024: Edwards, Wagner, Onyenso, Bradshaw, Dillingham, Theiro, Sheppard, Burks, Hart
I think this group does look comparable to those 2 teams in total amount of talent. And while not returning as much as 2014, isn't that far back of 2018.
But if we can add 1 or 2 more experience players, especially if a "leader" type of player, that could make a big impact.

29-11 or 26-11 would be a far cry and a vast improvement over where we have been over the past 3 years. That is where Cal has the program. Maybe this team(if we add 3 more players) can bail us out of competitive jail this coming season. The team we have at this time can not. Cyril, a WVa player or two or some other contributor at least gives us a chance.

 

[know1]

Any analysis that only mentions players, talent, minutes and lineups is missing the big, glaring issue that UK has.

 

[RunninRichie]

After the past 3 seasons. I am ****ing nauseated at the thought of a ''we're young'' season.

 

[JonathanW]

29-11 or 26-11 would be a far cry and a vast improvement over where we have been over the past 3 years. That is where Cal has the program. Maybe this team(if we add 3 more players) can bail us out of competitive jail this coming season. The team we have at this time can not. Cyril, a WVa player or two or some other contributor at least gives us a chance.

29-11 or 26-11 would NOT be a vast improvement over the past 3 years, only over the 1 team 3 years ago. What are you smoking!!!!
2 years ago we were really good. Played as a top 2-3 team in the country the meddle 1/3 of the season. Then injuries hit us, exposing Cal’s unwillingness to create depth, I guess he was hoping players would return to their pre-injury levels sooner. Even last year was as good as those 2 seasons.
You must be letting recentcy cloud your assessment.
We aren’t getting 3 more. 1 yes, 2 probably (cause we need 2). We need a PF/C, and we need a good proven 3pt shooter (not sure where can get one).