Why NIL Will be the Death of the NCAA

[The-Hack]

Should large numbers of schools like UGA, UK Ole Miss, Mississippi State, etc., think themselves at a competitive disadvantage from NIL, they will push the new Power Two to quit the NCAA, and create a new organization that allows the Universities to directly pay their players.

At first blush, that might sound counter-intuitive, why would UK want to directly pay its players? Well, with the massive windfall expected to come to the SEC and the Big Ten, [perhaps an increase of $30 million or more, annually to each school], from new alignments and re-negotiated TV deals, shifting $15 million over to pay the players would be a good long-term protective move against a very unpredictable NIL market.

Sure, players could still do NIL deals, but if all players are paid 100K or 200K a year directly from the school, it would level the playing field for most positions, most years.

And while players could still do their own NIL, the new entity could enforce a cap on what the Universities could pay, leaving the “market” to value NIL deals.

This would not create a completely level playing field, but it would greatly level the total effect of NIL. Allowing Universities to spend a set amount and still having NIL deals would likely mean the lowest participants are outspent by maybe two or three-to-one.

The current system could leave poorer programs outspent by as much as 30-1!!

And this might be a direction UK should look toward.

In a comparatively poor state, what entity associated with UK sports has averaged a double-digit growth in revenue since 2007, largely unaffected by recessions and Covid?

The UK Athletic Association has done so, largely off the damn-near exponential growth of the value of SEC football broadcast rights.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

I think the NCAA we all knew as little as a year ago is gone forever. Kirby isn't against NIL, but he is for paying kids already in the program and performing, not paying some high school kid7 digits to attend his school. Which is how I thought the program was suppose to work, but a few of the schools have used it differently.

I think the UK administration wants to operate as the rule is intended, reward current players, not to buy new players.

If I am understanding your proposal, the players become employees and are paid by the schools a pre determined value for t heir position creating a cap. Maybe I am misunderstanding , it is 2 AM. And kids are left to their own NIL deals. How is that different from where we are now other than the kids have gone from student athletes to student employees. NILs will still be bidding against each other? I am just afraid we are heading to the times where 2-3, schools with the richest boosters buy all the top players, like the Yankees did prior to salary caps.

 

[The-Hack]

How is that different

If the P2 schools can devote a capped amount, 15 million, 20 million, to their own program, those left out of the P2 would have to have ALOT of NIL money just to match.

Say all schools are capped at 20 million, and Texas aTm gets another $15 million in NIL money, totaling 35 million.

How is it different from now?

aTm likely outspent UK and UGA combined on true frosh 50-1. If UGA and UK can spend $20 million of their new TV wealth, aTm might only outspend them 35 million to 20 million.

Total equality? No.

Keeping P2 programs in the same ballpark? Maybe.

 

[jauk11]

Should large numbers of schools like UGA, UK Ole Miss, Mississippi State, etc., think themselves at a competitive disadvantage from NIL, they will push the new Power Two to quit the NCAA, and create a new organization that allows the Universities to directly pay their players.

At first blush, that might sound counter-intuitive, why would UK want to directly pay its players? Well, with the massive windfall expected to come to the SEC and the Big Ten, [perhaps an increase of $30 million or more, annually to each school], from new alignments and re-negotiated TV deals, shifting $15 million over to pay the players would be a good long-term protective move against a very unpredictable NIL market.

Sure, players could still do NIL deals, but if all players are paid 100K or 200K a year directly from the school, it would level the playing field for most positions, most years.

And while players could still do their own NIL, the new entity could enforce a cap on what the Universities could pay, leaving the “market” to value NIL deals.

This would not create a completely level playing field, but it would greatly level the total effect of NIL. Allowing Universities to spend a set amount and still having NIL deals would likely mean the lowest participants are outspent by maybe two or three-to-one.

The current system could leave poorer programs outspent by as much as 30-1!!

And this might be a direction UK should look toward.

In a comparatively poor state, what entity associated with UK sports has averaged a double-digit growth in revenue since 2007, largely unaffected by recessions and Covid?

The UK Athletic Association has done so, largely off the damn-near exponential growth of the value of SEC football broadcast rights.

Nice post but you will still have schools buying players. Give the players $100K or whatever is fair (I would have been in heaven if I had got $5,000 PLUS expenses paid) and let them make the big money when they go pro IF they are worth it.

Perhaps the simplest solution would be to tell them all to go to hell-----and it just might happen. I would miss it but I would survive, better than being held captive. Hunting, fishing, high school sports, maybe even playing with the grandkids, always something to do. And Hack, whatever you do, don't spend that $30,000,000 a year before you get it.

How much did Einstein make out of college, wasn't Hawkins worth a hundred football players?

 

[jauk11]

I think the NCAA we all knew as little as a year ago is gone forever. Kirby isn't against NIL, but he is for paying kids already in the program and performing, not paying some high school kid7 digits to attend his school. Which is how I thought the program was suppose to work, but a few of the schools have used it differently.

I think the UK administration wants to operate as the rule is intended, reward current players, not to buy new players.

If I am understanding your proposal, the players become employees and are paid by the schools a pre determined value for t heir position creating a cap. Maybe I am misunderstanding , it is 2 AM. And kids are left to their own NIL deals. How is that different from where we are now other than the kids have gone from student athletes to student employees. NILs will still be bidding against each other? I am just afraid we are heading to the times where 2-3, schools with the richest boosters buy all the top players, like the Yankees did prior to salary caps.

One of the big reasons I gave up baseball was when the Reds became a farm club for the Yankees. And I was heavy into baseball, never follow it now, (plus the players strike in 99 or so). Still enjoy UK baseball (and all sports} but I am not sure how long that will last either.

 

[Sawnee Cat]

One of the big reasons I gave up baseball was when the Reds became a farm club for the Yankees. And I was heavy into baseball, never follow it now, (plus the players strike in 99 or so). Still enjoy UK baseball (and all sports} but I am not sure how long that will last either.

There are a lot of people like you, including me. Growing up baseball was my first love. I grew up in an area where most of the major league teams had spring training so I saw most all of the big stars from the 50's. Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, Frankie Robinson, Al Kaline and on and on.

We would ride to the training camp on our bicycles with our glove and they would let us get in the outfield and shag balls that went over a players head. Players were friendly for the most part and would let you keep baseballs and signed autographs with no charge. I doubt they ever thought of asking you for money. I only had a dime in my pocket anyway.

Over time that all changed and the players strike in the 90's killed it for me. I have not watched or been to a game since. I have always enjoyed collegiate sports and was raised a UK fan. I have drifted from basketball, although I still have season tickets, and football is by far my first love now. College football. UK football. I pray it does not destroy itself over money.

 

[MrHotDice]

NIL will destroy all forms of college sports recruiting.

 

[Soupbean]

There are a lot of people like you, including me. Growing up baseball was my first love. I grew up in an area where most of the major league teams had spring training so I saw most all of the big stars from the 50's. Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, Frankie Robinson, Al Kaline and on and on.

We would ride to the training camp on our bicycles with our glove and they would let us get in the outfield and shag balls that went over a players head. Players were friendly for the most part and would let you keep baseballs and signed autographs with no charge. I doubt they ever thought of asking you for money. I only had a dime in my pocket anyway.

Over time that all changed and the players strike in the 90's killed it for me. I have not watched or been to a game since. I have always enjoyed collegiate sports and was raised a UK fan. I have drifted from basketball, although I still have season tickets, and football is by far my first love now. College football. UK football. I pray it does not destroy itself over money.

Pretty much the same history for me. I played and followed baseball as a passion but left it even before the strike due to out of control free agency that left no loyalty at all between player and team/city, so what was the point of being a fan anymore. This is where college athletics is headed as well I'm afraid, and its more than sad.

 

[K_TIME]

One of the big reasons I gave up baseball was when the Reds became a farm club for the Yankees. And I was heavy into baseball, never follow it now, (plus the players strike in 99 or so). Still enjoy UK baseball (and all sports} but I am not sure how long that will last either.

This is exactly what I think is an ultimate conclusion....

It's sort of silly to see the Reds having a payroll low as it is usually...and then Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, etc...have payrolls double (maybe triple) with guys making $20M+ at 10-11 positions on the roster while teams like Reds have maybe 2-3 at best.

So we're heading toward a world where Bama, Tenn, Ohio St, Texas AM, etc...heck UL sounds like they've got a sugar daddy as well that will have payrolls way higher than many other programs and you're left watching better players just group together and play you in a game. So what's the point in watching if the playing field is that unbalance.

Sort of why NFL (with a salary cap) is by far most watched sport in country. But if college football wants to go this route...then many fans will just stop supporting their local schools and find something else to do with their entertainment dollars.

 

[BlueTick2]

NIL will destroy all forms of college sports recruiting.

It's already began. Enjoy what few seasons that are left.

 

[Caveman Catfan]

I mentioned a while back in another thread that the current zoo could be tamed if the NCAA agreed to profit share with every football player (and other sports that produce income from TV revenue) and not let any true freshman have NIL deals unless they actually play in enough games to burn a RS. Then, real NIL deals, not fabricated collectives just looking to pay players, could be available for any player who is not a RSing frosh.

 

[YaketySax]

I think money is the problem in general more so than specific NIL. Case in point:



Hard not to allow NIL for players when coaches are making nine figures. The onus is on better regulation imo.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

If the P2 schools can devote a capped amount, 15 million, 20 million, to their own program, those left out of the P2 would have to have ALOT of NIL money just to match.

Say all schools are capped at 20 million, and Texas aTm gets another $15 million in NIL money, totaling 35 million.

How is it different from now?

aTm likely outspent UK and UGA combined on true frosh 50-1. If UGA and UK can spend $20 million of their new TV wealth, aTm might only outspend them 35 million to 20 million.

Total equality? No.

Keeping P2 programs in the same ballpark? Maybe.

You think ATM boosters won't do what it takes to keep the advantage? With their big boosters recording record profits from our energy crisis they are having to find new tax write offs, 15 million extra, they will spend 4 times that to keep their advantage. Of course Jimbo has to show he can win, I say his timeframe is pretty short right now, he better bring home a NC within 3 years.

 

[Tskware]

It's already began. Enjoy what few seasons that are left.

My thought exactly

 

[Cat_Man_Blue]

My thought exactly

Finebaum had someone on his show yesterday who coveres the Vols. This person openly admitted that UT is being very aggressive using NIL to enduce recruits to play for UT and that NIL is why they have a top 10 recruiting class.

 

[Cat_Man_Blue]

As someone else mentioned, true fresmen should not be eligable for NIL, until they have played enough games to burn their redshirt year. This won't eliminate all of the advantages that the big money schools have, but I think it might go a long way towards leveling the playing field. What Texas AM did last year, signing eight 5 star recruits, was insane. That had never been done before and Texas AM never came close to that before NIL. No wonder Sabin was pissed.

 

[jauk11]

You think ATM boosters won't do what it takes to keep the advantage? With their big boosters recording record profits from our energy crisis they are having to find new tax write offs, 15 million extra, they will spend 4 times that to keep their advantage. Of course Jimbo has to show he can win, I say his timeframe is pretty short right now, he better bring home a NC within 3 years.

Weird energy crisis when there are as many gallons of gas as you want available yet the prices skyrocket. I smell a rat somewhere.

 

[Deeeefense]

One other thought occurred to me about NIL. How would a parent feel about sending their 18 year old off to a school away from home and putting $100K in their pocket? I would feel extremely uneasy about that. That much money in the hands of a youth could lead to some issues. I would feel much more comfortable in the Stoops/Kirby model of making them earn it.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Weird energy crisis when there are as many gallons of gas as you want available yet the prices skyrocket. I smell a rat somewhere.

Ain't that right, you and I have lived through gas shortages with pumps being out, if you weren't a regular customer station owners wouldn't sell to you. Even then prices didn't jump up like they have this go around.

 

[The-Hack]

You think ATM boosters won't do what it takes to keep the advantage?

Grumpy, my posts clearly state aTm could still do NIL and have an advantage.

But a 300K to 150K aTm advantage might get a player to Georgia and Kentucky, whereas a 200K to 0 (zero, nada, to bad, to sad) aTm advantage will always shut us out.

I think you are not reading the posts you are responding to.

Yes, Grump, aTm would likely still have an NIL advantage, but not a monopoly on spending for freshmen slots, as they do now, if UGA and Kentucky could spend 15-20 million on establishing base pay.