What a Surreal World College and Pro Basketball has Become

[BlueRattie]

I don't know the exact moment that the pendulum of NBA talent development swung so decidedly toward potential instead of production, but I think you can begin to trace it back to 1996, when the Charlotte Hornets traded their 17th pick to the Lakers for Vlade Divac. Teams had been burned by passing on on youthful potential before, but the the Hornets, obviously, got more than burned (center of the sun-nuclear fission-cosmic level-fricassee is more like it). Since then, NBA execs have been wary of being the next fool to thumb their nose at a future hall-of-famer. At that point, the "young potential trumps proven production" movement has taken hold of the NBA, at this movement has created some very odd results.

There was once a time when the more time you could get in front of scouts the better. This fact was predicated on the reality that scouts were very cautions, taking extra care not to draft people who would not produced immediately. Today, when a kid knows that he has the scout's interest, it's actually in the kid's best interest to "hide" his play from that scout. The Diallo saga shows just how far the pendulum has swung in the favor of potential. It's almost as if players now believe (know?) that the more time you spend on the court in front of scouts the more flaws in your game can be identified.

This has already irrevocably change college basketball, and their might be more change on the way. If Diallo get's drafted, does he set up the model for high school kids in the future:

1. Establish yourself as a high level talent by dominating at the high school level.
2. Eschew college in favor of going to a prep school, or better yet, just hire an agent right out of high school and have him pay your bills for a year while you show only glimpses of your talent to very select audiences. Don't risk exposing your flaws on a grand stage.
3. Put in for the draft. If you don't like the feedback, there will be colleges lining up for your services.

I could see a future where college basketball becomes a mirror of college baseball: a sport populated by second-tier prospects that only went to college because they weren't good enough to temp the NBA or smart enough to deceive them. The "one and done" rule will essentially become a de facto "evade and get paid" racket.

Of course, this is just conjecture, but we may well live to see the day when college basketball sinks goes the way of boxing and college baseball--a niche sport with inconsistent talent and a fleeting fan base.