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Vegas Win Totals…

So if preseason win totals are adjusted for odds, why wouldn't every team be at six?
 
Bet the 8.5 and take the over

If you have a grand lying around, put it on the over at 9.5
 


Just one system but this gives his system’s point difference (subtract difference btwn Kentucky and opponents and then add 2.5 points for home field advantage).
Over half of our opponents this year are in this Top 25 (Texas, Tenn, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Ole Miss, and little brother). Our schedule is so brutal.
 
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Over half of our opponents this year are in this Top 25 (Texas, Tenn, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Ole Miss, and little brother). Our schedule is so brutal.

How can any legitimate rankings have UF pre season top 25 coming off back to back losing seasons? Urban isn't on their sidelines this fall.

Of course they are expecting to be improved, but so is everyone else. I think UK and UT have both made big upgrades at QB and will be better there than UF. OM, Texas and UGA all return better QBs that UF. I think Billy will be unemployed by mid season. The supposedly promised him 4 years, but Noone pulls the trigger quicker than UF.
 
If I was arguing Florida's case I would say Mertz seems to have turned out to be a decent QB and improving, and Napier has now had a chance to install his system and recruit the players he wants to run it so there could be an experience dividend for them this year.
 
How can any legitimate rankings have UF pre season top 25 coming off back to back losing seasons? Urban isn't on their sidelines this fall.

Of course they are expecting to be improved, but so is everyone else. I think UK and UT have both made big upgrades at QB and will be better there than UF. OM, Texas and UGA all return better QBs that UF. I think Billy will be unemployed by mid season. The supposedly promised him 4 years, but Noone pulls the trigger quicker than UF.
I think they’re keeping Napier because of his recruiting. They were 5-7 last year and lost their last five games but those were all against ranked teams so the school probably think it’s worth giving him one more shot. Looking at their 2024 schedule, there’s a good possibility they could be 3-3 heading into our game, maybe even 4-2 but they play Miami, UT, aTm, and Miss St in those first six games so we should know more about their season by the time we get there. You’re right that UF has no problem pulling the plug and my guess is if they actually are 3-3 and we beat them in Gainesville then he’ll be fired by the end of the weekend. I hope that scenario plays out because you’d have a new coach with a new system and many of those high profile players will transfer out.
 
I think they’re keeping Napier because of his recruiting. They were 5-7 last year and lost their last five games but those were all against ranked teams so the school probably think it’s worth giving him one more shot. Looking at their 2024 schedule, there’s a good possibility they could be 3-3 heading into our game, maybe even 4-2 but they play Miami, UT, aTm, and Miss St in those first six games so we should know more about their season by the time we get there. You’re right that UF has no problem pulling the plug and my guess is if they actually are 3-3 and we beat them in Gainesville then he’ll be fired by the end of the weekend. I hope that scenario plays out because you’d have a new coach with a new system and many of those high profile players will transfer out.

I hate if for Billy, his dad was one of my best friends in coaching profession, Billy was on a team I coached, I was defensive guy. He is very smart and a genuinely good guy. I hate he took the UF job, but being a DI head coach has been his goal for a long time. Just wish he had gone BIG12. Not going to predict 2-10. But only see 2 for sure wins, and a couple more with decent chance. If they don't get to a bowl don't think he survives a 3rd losing season.
 
How can any legitimate rankings have UF pre season top 25 coming off back to back losing seasons? Urban isn't on their sidelines this fall.

Of course they are expecting to be improved, but so is everyone else. I think UK and UT have both made big upgrades at QB and will be better there than UF. OM, Texas and UGA all return better QBs that UF. I think Billy will be unemployed by mid season. The supposedly promised him 4 years, but Noone pulls the trigger quicker than UF.
I agree with this take. Mertz peaked last year. He's an excellent game mgr QB, but either doesn't have the skills or skill players to get it down the field. They lost arguably the best RB in the SEC and their DC is still going to frat parties, so he hired an experienced DC to be under him and let him know he's one bad call from getting fired. This is not a team poised for a breakout. This is a team that is closer to spinning out of control. No way I'm betting on them to make it to a bowl. They may be better, but not outlier better.
 
I agree with this take. Mertz peaked last year. He's an excellent game mgr QB, but either doesn't have the skills or skill players to get it down the field. They lost arguably the best RB in the SEC and their DC is still going to frat parties, so he hired an experienced DC to be under him and let him know he's one bad call from getting fired. This is not a team poised for a breakout. This is a team that is closer to spinning out of control. No way I'm betting on them to make it to a bowl. They may be better, but not outlier better.

They play 11 P4 teams this fall. Granted all of them aren't world beaters, but neither is UF.

The only sure win I see is Samford and MSST the next most likely. Then Miami, ATM and UCF are possible wins.

The other 7 are all loses, FSU, UT, UK, UGA, Tx, OM and LSU imo, a win against either of those would be a big upset.

I have to admit the comment about their DC still going to frat parties was pretty funny, but I bet he gets booted from the top Frat houses.
 
I predict when UK plays Florida they will have benched Mertz in favor of Lagaway

If Billy can't sell current teams ability to save his job he has to shift to selling the future
 
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I predict when UK plays Florida they will have benched Mertz in favor of Lagaway

If Billy can't sell current teams ability to save his job he has to shift to selling the future

The entire UF fanbase agrees with you that Lagway is the future, and they are probably correct, don't think he is a polished passer yet, but great athlete that can throw. He is there because of Billy, if UF cans Billy, I think Lagway follows him. What would really chap the gators is they can Billy, Kirby hires him as an analysis, and Lagway followed him. Billy and Kirby are friends, get Billy closer to his Mom's and UF still paying him.
 
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Florida’s schedule is brutal. If they go 7-5 their fans will be furious because of absurd expectations but they should hold a parade.

Mizzou has an easy schedule. They better get 9-10 wins. Oklahoma’s looks pretty easy too but not as easy as Mizzou.
 
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