Updated Pomeroy ratings 12/30/15

[KneeBurns]

Strength of Schedule NCSOS
Rank Team Conf W-L Pyth points scored per 100 possessions

1 Kansas B12 11-1 .9456 116.8 9 91.1 8 72.5 66
2 Oklahoma B12 11-0 .9437 116.0 10 90.8 6 73.4 39
3 Virginia ACC 10-1 .9418 119.0 2 93.4 19 62.7 350
4 Purdue B10 13-1 .9417 110.4 37 86.7 1 70.3 154
5 Louisville ACC 11-2 .9342 114.5 17 90.9 7 68.6 233
6 Villanova BE 10-2 .9314 115.5 12 92.1 11 67.4 291
7 Xavier BE 12-0 .9295 113.1 21 90.4 3 71.9 84
8 Michigan St. B10 13-1 .9282 116.0 11 92.8 12 67.8 277
9 Duke ACC 10-2 .9183 118.4 4 96.0 42 69.4 201
10 North Carolina ACC 11-2 .9177 119.5 1 96.9 60 73.0 51
11 Miami FL ACC 11-1 .9122 117.6 6 95.9 41 68.8 219
12 SMU Amer 12-0 .9072 118.5 3 97.2 67 67.6 285
13 Iowa B10 10-3 .8985 115.0 15 95.1 29 70.9 125
14 West Virginia B12 10-1 .8977 109.1 49 90.4 2 72.6 62
15 Kentucky SEC 10-2 .8975 112.8 22 93.4 18 70.7 138
16 Maryland B10 11-1 .8939 115.4 14 95.8 39 67.4 292
17 Arizona P12 12-1 .8895 109.5 44 91.4 10 70.2 162
18 Vanderbilt SEC 7-4 .8830 110.8 34 92.9 14 68.4 250
19 Iowa St. B12 10-1 .8765 114.8 16 96.8 57 74.1 24
20 Butler BE 11-1 .8761 116.8 8 98.5 87 71.3 10
http://kenpom.com/

 

[cats2010]

I don't know what any of that means but if there is a system that says UofL's non conference SOS is greater than UK's and #5 in the country that system obviously is extremely flawed.

 

[SilentsAreGolden]

We have dropped and UL went up one spot since our game the other day. I respect Kenpom, but it's obviously not perfect. We have beaten two Top 10 Kenpom teams, and UL hasn't beaten any. Only thing I can think is the reason is that our two losses came against teams outside their Top 25, whereas UL lost to two top 15 teams. Still, it's stupid.

 

[Aike]

I like those rankings. We've played 2 teams listed in front of us and have beaten them both.

We only play one more team listed above us so...

 

[Aike]

I don't know what any of that means but if there is a system that says UofL's non conference SOS is greater than UK's and #5 in the country that system obviously is extremely flawed.

Those are overall kenpom rankings. UL's SOS is in the 300s.

Computers are weird. Blowing out cupcakes + moral victories = Top 5.

 

[SilentsAreGolden]

I like those rankings. We've played 2 teams listed in front of us and have beaten them both.

We only play one more team listed above us so...

Two. Vandy and KU.

 

[UKWildcats#8]

Anyone notice it was some dumb KU fan that posted this? What a loser. KU fans care about meaningless rankings because they never do anything when it matters in March.

 

[docholiday51]

I like those rankings. We've played 2 teams listed in front of us and have beaten them both.

We only play one more team listed above us so...

It is a good thing, if we beat them we would probably drop more

 

[SilentsAreGolden]

Anyone notice it was some dumb KU fan that posted this? What a loser. KU fans care about meaningless rankings because they never do anything when it matters in March.

Good catch. Yeah, they love stats and conference titles more than national titles.

 

[Aike]

Two. Vandy and KU.

Vandy is behind us.

 

[Aike]

Anyone notice it was some dumb KU fan that posted this? What a loser. KU fans care about meaningless rankings because they never do anything when it matters in March.

Of course it was. With the number 1 and 2 teams, we should expect at least an Elite 8 for some Big 12 team, right?

 

[MdWIldcat55]

Kneeburns returns after looooooonnnnnngggggg vacations -- one which began the day after the Kentucky-Kansas game of last year, and another which began the day after the Kansas-Wichita State game in the NCAA tournament.

He's the king of the self-serving Jayhawk propaganda, a proud defender of all things Helmsworthy. He'll no doubt be around constantly now, since his confidence is up ahead of the January game. We may or may not see him after that. We can count on him vanishing after another perplexing KU loss in the tournament.

 

[tmuck]

Baiting thread from a KU fan wanting us to pat him on the head.

 

[SilentsAreGolden]

Vandy is behind us.

I misread it as saying just "above" referring to anyone on the list. Appy Polly Loggies.

 

[wcc31]

Anyone notice it was some dumb KU fan that posted this? What a loser. KU fans care about meaningless rankings because they never do anything when it matters in March.

It's KneeBurns- a perfect example of Kansas fans and their inferiority complex with UK.

Looking forward to their annual choke job, a rite of spring.

 

[The_Answer1313]

I get why we didn't move up after the UL win

The game was in Rupp. His system projected us to win by 2 and we did exactly what the system projected based on the rankings before the game.

Had we beaten UL by the 16 point lead we had at one point or even 8 we would have moved up.

Conversely UL losing two road games close to top 15 ranked teams was never going to move them down much lol

 

[catben]

"Look at us"!!
"Look at us"!!
"We're the best"!!
"We're the best"!!

Give the KU fan a cookie for being ranked #1 by a flawed formula in December.

 

[The_Answer1313]

The only way you move up or down is if you overperform on the projection.

So say the #10 and #1 team faces each other. The 10th ranked team is home and as such is projected to win by 2. They end up winning by exactly 2. They won't move up and the 1 team won't move down as both teams did what was expected based on the rankings.

So the mere fact that UK was projected by 2 and won by 2 might mean that UK and UL are accurately ranked in the system. Of course this is just one game result and a small sample tho

 

[The_Answer1313]

It also goes to show how close teams at the top are. Last year there was a clear line at the top. This year not so much. I wouldn't put stock into the 15th ranking. UK could beat any of those teams ahead of them and have already proven that with wins vs Duke and UL

 

[KneeBurns]

"Look at us"!!
"Look at us"!!
"We're the best"!!
"We're the best"!!

Give the KU fan a cookie for being ranked #1 by a flawed formula in December.

How is it "flawed"?

 

[SilentsAreGolden]

How is it "flawed"?

UL is 5th having beaten NOBODY. Do you need us to draw pictures and diagrams?

 

[catben]

When 2 teams that we have beaten are still ahead of us, then it is "flawed". How can UofL's pitiful schedule be considered better than UK's?

 

[KneeBurns]

UL is 5th having beaten NOBODY. Do you need us to draw pictures and diagrams?

Yes, I suppose you do.

 

[The_Answer1313]

When 2 teams that we have beaten are still ahead of us, then it is "flawed". How can UofL's pitiful schedule be considered better than UK's?

Not sure where this is coming from. I log onto Kenpom site and UK's non conference schedule is ranked 107th. UL is 309th lol

I don't agree with the first statement tho. Rankings should be based on the WHOLE season, not just two games. We were home against the Cards. We should beat them. Duke on a neutral court was more impressive but again the ratings are looking at the season as a whole. Duke losing to UK (15th) and Utah (39th) is better than UK losing to UCLA (42nd) and Ohio St (52nd).

You have to factor everything

 

[UK90]

When 2 teams that we have beaten are still ahead of us, then it is "flawed".

Sorry, but that is NOT necessarily true if the teams that beat us are worse than the teams that beat them. Some of you guys seem to forget that bad losses count just as much as good wins.

UK's problem here is that the teams that beat us are both rather mediocre, which is what drags our computer ranking down. Don't blame the formula, instead blame Ohio State and UCLA for stinking in other games.

 

[martinsm30]

At this point in the season that rating means about as much as Kansas' next B12 title.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Sorry, but that is NOT necessarily true if the teams that beat us are worse than the teams that beat them. Some of you guys seem to forget that bad losses count just as much as good wins.

UK's problem here is that the teams that beat us are both rather mediocre, which is what drags our computer ranking down. Don't blame the formula, instead blame Ohio State and UCLA for kinda stinking in other games.

Adding to that it wasn't just the fact we lost to those teams but we were projected to beat UCLA by 6 (77-71) and lost by 10, a difference of 16 points. We were projected to beat Ohio St by 10 (74-64) and lost by 7, a difference of 17 points.

So it's not just that we lost to those teams but how much we lost by when we were favored by quite a bit.

A team that's favored by 10 points wins 82% of the time. That OSU loss was just bad.

 

[uky8unc5]

I have my doubts that UK is #15. Beating UL certainly didn't impress me.

 

[UK90]

That OSU loss was just bad.

Yep, that's clearly what caused us to drop so far.

Ohio State came into that game with a 4-4 record and really bad losses to UT-Arlington and La Tech and no remotely decent wins. And then they spanked us. A loss like that is an absolute killer to a team's computer ranking.

 

[The_Answer1313]

I have my doubts that UK is #15. Beating UL certainly didn't impress me.

Most likely because your undervaluing how good UL actually is.

I think 15 range is probably accurate to where this team is at right now.

Is UL the 5th best team in the country? Probably not but they aren't as bad as people on this board make them out to be either.

 

[The_Answer1313]

FWIW this is the difference on a Neutral Court between the 15th ranked team (UK) and 1st ranked team (KU)

The predicted score would be 79-74 KU in a 73 possession game. UK chances of winning would be about 32%. That's with Kenpom data.

Sargarin
Kansas is ranked 2nd with a rating of 93.02. UK is ranked 19th with a rating of 87.48.

93.02 - 87.48 = 5.54 points.

So both systems agree on a neutral court KU is probably 5-6 points better at this point.

I wouldn't really put much stock into this. Cal always has UK playing it's best basketball in March. I wouldn't be surprised if I did this late February and the difference was minimal between the two teams.

 

[KneeBurns]

FWIW this is the difference on a Neutral Court between the 15th ranked team (UK) and 1st ranked team (KU)

The predicted score would be 79-74 KU in a 73 possession game. UK chances of winning would be about 32%. That's with Kenpom data.

Sargarin
Kansas is ranked 2nd with a rating of 93.02. UK is ranked 19th with a rating of 87.48.

93.02 - 87.48 = 5.54 points.

So both systems agree on a neutral court KU is probably 5-6 points better at this point.

I wouldn't really put much stock into this. Cal always has UK playing it's best basketball in March. I wouldn't be surprised if I did this late February and the difference was minimal between the two teams.

I would be. The season is already 1/3 over. In order to make up the 5.50 pt gap, you'd have to run up some healthy margins vs SEC teams (league again much lower rated than the Big 12 is). KU will get SoS benefits and 1/3 of the season already in the books. Unless you expect KU to falter and Kentucky to really take off - both have to happen.

 

[KWilt43atbuzz]

Ive said it before and Ill say it again:

Kenpom = Facepalm

 

[UK90]

I would be. The season is already 1/3 over. In order to make up the 5.50 pt gap, you'd have to run up some healthy margins vs SEC teams (league again much lower rated than the Big 12 is). KU will get SoS benefits and 1/3 of the season already in the books. Unless you expect KU to falter and Kentucky to really take off - both have to happen.

You do realize the national championship is not awarded based on computer rankings, right?

I've got no problem with the results here, I think KU right now probably deserves that top spot, and I completely understand why we're so low when you examine how poorly OSU and UCLA have done in other games. BUT you are acting like this is way more important than it actually is. I don't really care much about computer rankings in December, I care very much about tourney games in March.

 

[The_Answer1313]

I would be. The season is already 1/3 over. In order to make up the 5.50 pt gap, you'd have to run up some healthy margins vs SEC teams (league again much lower rated than the Big 12 is). KU will get SoS benefits and 1/3 of the season already in the books. Unless you expect KU to falter and Kentucky to really take off - both have to happen.

I expect UK to play much better and probably KU to be around the same or slightly better. I don't see UK overtaking KU but I could see the gap shrink to 2 to 3 points instead of 5-6.

And at that point on a neutral court you may as well flip a coin.

 

[KneeBurns]

I expect UK to play much better and probably KU to be around the same or slightly better. I don't see UK overtaking KU but I could see the gap shrink to 2 to 3 points instead of 5-6.

And at that point on a neutral court you may as well flip a coin.

Well of course. A point spread of 2.5 has a standard deviation greater than that. The odds of the favored team winning are like 55%.

Your argument is very similar to when I picked AZ to win the NCAAT last year. The Sagarin spread the 2nd half of the year vs Kentucky was only +3 points. As it was compared to Duke and Wisky. Too much variability to assume Kentucky would win three straight 55% odds. That's like a 1/4 chance.

 

[fatguy87]

Unless you expect KU to falter and Kentucky to really take off - both have to happen.

Kansas doesn't have to falter. Kentucky can close the gap by just playing better.

Plus, there is no reward for finishing at the top of Kenpom. It's a useful tool, but it's not what picks the champion. Nobody caught Kentucky last season, for example, but all they have to show for their Kenpom dominance is a Final Four banner.

 

[UK90]

Plus, there is no reward for finishing at the top of Kenpom. It's a useful tool, but it's not what picks the champion. Nobody caught Kentucky last season, for example, but all they have to show for their Kenpom dominance is a Final Four banner.

Exactly. I wonder if KU fans were still bragging about their stellar kenpom score after their top seeded Jayhawks fell to Northern Iowa and VCU a few years ago. I know we UK fans sure were heartbroken about our computer rankings when our lower seeded 2011 and 2014 teams ran to the Final Four anyways.

This stuff is not as important as Kansas fan seems to think. As long as Cal gets this team peaking at the right time I can deal with KU getting a higher seed. We'll settle it on the court in March.

 

[KneeBurns]

I guess KenPom was wrong about Kentucky last year then.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Kenpom wasn't wrong. Even tho UK was ranked 1, there were many other teams that were close (ie, Duke, Wisconsin, UVA).

The most talented team doesn't always win in a one and done format like the tourny.

The rankings are what they are. If they could accurate predicted who wins the title, then Kenpom wouldn't be publishing the data freely but rather he be making a boatload of money. Luck always plays a role in sports. Sports are unpredictable. That's why we watch.

But you can look at the rankings and have a pretty good idea of which teams are going to be there in the end. It's just there's not much difference in the 10th ranked team compared to the 1st ranked team from year to year.