It for sure pays to cheat....the AC's will always fall on the sword for the HC, that's their job. And the accusers will be dismissed or paid off and at elite programs the media and other coaches will all come to defend their guy.
The NCAA has no rhyme or reason for their punishment, it's not "do this and here is the clear sanctions", so you can argue and plead down pretty much anything.
Plus, the school has the chance of "self-punishment", like taking away 2 scholarships for a year or 1 year of post-season ban which does very little, you can cheat for years and get the benefit yet the punishment is short-term.