Kentucky Basketball: Resume breakdown (2/23)
We're bounding toward March Madness and the Big Dance is getting closer by the day.
Kentucky, now 22-5 overall and 12-2 in the SEC, is poised for a conference championship and has seen its resume improve a lot in recent weeks.
Here's a spot check of Kentucky's resume and what various bracketologists are saying as of Sunday, February 23rd, before the games later in the day.
... Kentucky moved up from 22nd to 21st in the NET rankings after yesterday's win against Florida.
... Kentucky moved up one spot in KenPom from 28th to 27th, and in the process its adjusted defensive efficiency rank improved from 51st to 41st. Kentucky turned Florida over 18 times and held the Gators to 43% shooting.
... Kentucky is now 6-3 in Quadrant 1 games played this season. The list of these games is obviously fluid as more outcomes come in. Quadrant 1 games are defined as games against teams ranked in the NET between 1-30 at home, between 1-50 on neutral sites, and between 1-75 on the road. Thus, the win at LSU was a Quadrant 1 win because the Tigers are currently No. 29 in the NET.
For the sake of some context, presumed 1 seeds Kansas and Baylor have Quadrant 1 records of 11-3 and 10-1 respectively. The only other team with double-digit Quadrant 1 wins is Seton Hall, which is 10-5 in those games.
However, Kentucky's Quadrant 1 record (6-3) is now at least very comparable to every team other than those three. Some teams might have more Quadrant 1 wins than Kentucky (e.g. Butler, Villanova, and Creighton have eight) but those teams other than KU, Baylor all have more Quadrant 1 losses than Kentucky (e.g. Butler, Villanova, and Creighton all have six Q1 losses, compared to UK's three).
... Kentucky is now 4-1 in Quadrant 2 games played this season. Quadrant 2 games are defined as home games against teams ranked (in the NET) between 31-75, neutral games against teams ranked 51-100, and road games against teams ranked 76-135. The win against Florida qualifies as a Quadrant 2 win because the Gators are ranked 34th in the NET and the game was at Rupp. If Florida were to move into the Top 30 this would become a Quadrant 1 win.
UK's one Quadrant 2 loss was against Utah, which falls into the 51-100 neutral site opponent range as the No. 90 team in the NET. If Utah were to fall below 100, this would become a Quadrant 3 loss for Kentucky.
For the same of comparison, teams like Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton, SDSU, Duke, Maryland, Villanova, and Creighton all have perfect records in Quadrant 2 games.
However, some other teams such as BYU, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Colorado, Oregon, and Butler have all lost multiple Quadrant 2 games.
... SDSU, Duke, Arizona and Colorado all have one Quadrant 3 loss. Kentucky, like all of the other teams in the running for a high seed, has a perfect record in Quadrant 3 games.
... Unfortunately for Kentucky, and this is no revelation, but the Wildcats are alone in the entire conversation with its Quadrant 4 loss to Evansville. No other team in the running for a high seed has a Quadrant 4 loss.
The convergence of factors that has created a mountain for Kentucky to climb, and which may impose more of a hard ceiling on Kentucky's seeding potential when compared to some other teams: Kentucky has fewer Quadrant 1 wins than the most elite resumes and a Quadrant 2 loss whereas the best resumes don't, as well as a Quadrant 4 loss.
... Shelby Mast of Bracket-WAG has Kentucky as the last three seed. However, according to Bracket Matrix, the Bracketeer and WAG were the only two major bracketologies that had Kentucky as a three seed as of 2/22, before the Cats' win against Florida. The win against the Gators certainly won't hurt but it's worth noting the three seeds were outliers before Saturday. Of the 30-plus other bracketologies released on Saturday, 2/22, Kentucky's average seed was 4.19 with four as the overwhelming choice, five as next most common, and then three as the third most likely seed choice.
We're bounding toward March Madness and the Big Dance is getting closer by the day.
Kentucky, now 22-5 overall and 12-2 in the SEC, is poised for a conference championship and has seen its resume improve a lot in recent weeks.
Here's a spot check of Kentucky's resume and what various bracketologists are saying as of Sunday, February 23rd, before the games later in the day.
... Kentucky moved up from 22nd to 21st in the NET rankings after yesterday's win against Florida.
... Kentucky moved up one spot in KenPom from 28th to 27th, and in the process its adjusted defensive efficiency rank improved from 51st to 41st. Kentucky turned Florida over 18 times and held the Gators to 43% shooting.
... Kentucky is now 6-3 in Quadrant 1 games played this season. The list of these games is obviously fluid as more outcomes come in. Quadrant 1 games are defined as games against teams ranked in the NET between 1-30 at home, between 1-50 on neutral sites, and between 1-75 on the road. Thus, the win at LSU was a Quadrant 1 win because the Tigers are currently No. 29 in the NET.
For the sake of some context, presumed 1 seeds Kansas and Baylor have Quadrant 1 records of 11-3 and 10-1 respectively. The only other team with double-digit Quadrant 1 wins is Seton Hall, which is 10-5 in those games.
However, Kentucky's Quadrant 1 record (6-3) is now at least very comparable to every team other than those three. Some teams might have more Quadrant 1 wins than Kentucky (e.g. Butler, Villanova, and Creighton have eight) but those teams other than KU, Baylor all have more Quadrant 1 losses than Kentucky (e.g. Butler, Villanova, and Creighton all have six Q1 losses, compared to UK's three).
... Kentucky is now 4-1 in Quadrant 2 games played this season. Quadrant 2 games are defined as home games against teams ranked (in the NET) between 31-75, neutral games against teams ranked 51-100, and road games against teams ranked 76-135. The win against Florida qualifies as a Quadrant 2 win because the Gators are ranked 34th in the NET and the game was at Rupp. If Florida were to move into the Top 30 this would become a Quadrant 1 win.
UK's one Quadrant 2 loss was against Utah, which falls into the 51-100 neutral site opponent range as the No. 90 team in the NET. If Utah were to fall below 100, this would become a Quadrant 3 loss for Kentucky.
For the same of comparison, teams like Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton, SDSU, Duke, Maryland, Villanova, and Creighton all have perfect records in Quadrant 2 games.
However, some other teams such as BYU, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Colorado, Oregon, and Butler have all lost multiple Quadrant 2 games.
... SDSU, Duke, Arizona and Colorado all have one Quadrant 3 loss. Kentucky, like all of the other teams in the running for a high seed, has a perfect record in Quadrant 3 games.
... Unfortunately for Kentucky, and this is no revelation, but the Wildcats are alone in the entire conversation with its Quadrant 4 loss to Evansville. No other team in the running for a high seed has a Quadrant 4 loss.
The convergence of factors that has created a mountain for Kentucky to climb, and which may impose more of a hard ceiling on Kentucky's seeding potential when compared to some other teams: Kentucky has fewer Quadrant 1 wins than the most elite resumes and a Quadrant 2 loss whereas the best resumes don't, as well as a Quadrant 4 loss.
... Shelby Mast of Bracket-WAG has Kentucky as the last three seed. However, according to Bracket Matrix, the Bracketeer and WAG were the only two major bracketologies that had Kentucky as a three seed as of 2/22, before the Cats' win against Florida. The win against the Gators certainly won't hurt but it's worth noting the three seeds were outliers before Saturday. Of the 30-plus other bracketologies released on Saturday, 2/22, Kentucky's average seed was 4.19 with four as the overwhelming choice, five as next most common, and then three as the third most likely seed choice.
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