UK v. Alabama (SEC tournament style)

[Comebakatz3]

Well, thanks to some great detective work by our very own Derek Terry we now know that UK will be starting Logue tomorrow.

So, what are your thoughts on this?

Logue has pitched entirely in the midweek save 2.1 innings. He hasn't pitched against many great teams, but he did pitch against Louisville twice and gave up just 2 earned runs in 8 overall innings of work, 5 runs total. One of those was a 5 inning effort AT Louisville where he only gave up 1 run. He also pitched against Georgia and went 1 scoreless inning and pitched a perfect inning against South Carolina.

So, looking at that part sounds pretty decent. However, he has only pitched more than 5 innings in two game this entire season, in 16 appearances and 8 starts. One of those was 5.2 innings against Cincinnati all the way back on March 8th, and the other one was this past week against Murray State. This wouldn't be such a scary thing, but for the fact that our bullpen seems to be struggling as of late. Strecker and Lewis seem to be giving up some more earned runs lately, which is to be expected considering they were excellent all year, and Hjelle seems to have somewhat fallen apart, he's given up at least 1 earned run in 4 of his last 5 appearances... not exactly what you want from your closer.

Add to this that UK will be playing in a big park and basically on the road and it makes me wonder just how Logue will fair. His ERA suggests he'll do fine, but he will need to go longer than he has all season long and he will need to make sure to keep the ball down in the zone. UK's defense needs to play excellent baseball and cut down on the errors, because this could be a low scoring affair. We're 24 hours or so away... I'm pretty excited for it.

 

[Black Diamond Cat]

Well, thanks to some great detective work by our very own Derek Terry we now know that UK will be starting Logue tomorrow.

So, what are your thoughts on this?

Logue has pitched entirely in the midweek save 2.1 innings. He hasn't pitched against many great teams, but he did pitch against Louisville twice and gave up just 2 earned runs in 8 overall innings of work, 5 runs total. One of those was a 5 inning effort AT Louisville where he only gave up 1 run. He also pitched against Georgia and went 1 scoreless inning and pitched a perfect inning against South Carolina.

So, looking at that part sounds pretty decent. However, he has only pitched more than 5 innings in two game this entire season, in 16 appearances and 8 starts. One of those was 5.2 innings against Cincinnati all the way back on March 8th, and the other one was this past week against Murray State. This wouldn't be such a scary thing, but for the fact that our bullpen seems to be struggling as of late. Strecker and Lewis seem to be giving up some more earned runs lately, which is to be expected considering they were excellent all year, and Hjelle seems to have somewhat fallen apart, he's given up at least 1 earned run in 4 of his last 5 appearances... not exactly what you want from your closer.

Add to this that UK will be playing in a big park and basically on the road and it makes me wonder just how Logue will fair. His ERA suggests he'll do fine, but he will need to go longer than he has all season long and he will need to make sure to keep the ball down in the zone. UK's defense needs to play excellent baseball and cut down on the errors, because this could be a low scoring affair. We're 24 hours or so away... I'm pretty excited for it.

Sort of had a feeling it might be Zach Logue (3-1) 2.62 ERA. He actually has pitched pretty well of late, and if we could get 5 or 6 innings, hopefully 7, we have a pretty rested bullpen. Lewis Salow, Strecker and Hjellie, plus the always Hendo favorite, Pop.
This is a gamble I guess, but if we can get the win tomorrow, we then have Beggs set to go against Miss. State, and then Cody after that. High RISK but High REWARD !!

 

[Oldtrainer]

Some of you guys enlighten me on Bama. How do we match with their hitters, pitchers. Thanks in advance!

 

[Derek Terry]

I too thought they'd go with Logue after Brown struggled (again) on Thursday. I've talked about it on Twitter, but I think there are some other ways UK could've handled the pitching situation.

UK was in a tough spot needing to win the series against Missouri to stay in contention for an at-large bid, but they also had to win Tuesday to still have a chance. Those are things the staff knew going into the Missouri series. However, Brown started and was rocked, which basically gave away any chance he had of starting Tuesday. You just can't give the ball to a guy who's 2-11 when your season is on the line. And really, Brown's season can be subject to more inspection and he really shouldn't be 2-11, but he has been a significant step down from Beggs and Cody. But that's getting off subject.

Regardless, I think UK would've been better suited throwing either Beggs or Cody (whichever Henderson thinks gives the team the better chance to win against Alabama) on Thursday and start Brown, or Logue, a different night.

But since he didn't, and UK still won two of three, it puts them in a situation where they're relying on a guy who has never made an SEC start in his career. I like Logue and am intrigued about what he can do tomorrow, but it's still not an ideal situation. Brown wasn't sharp in his three starts prior to the Mizzou start, so why not give Logue a chance against Missouri if you know there's a chance he'd pitch if Brown struggled once again? I don't know why Missouri was the breaking point for Brown and not a start like South Carolina where he allowed seven runs and dropped his record to 2-9.

It's a big opportunity for Logue. UK didn't hit the ball well off of Eicholtz the last time they faced him. Only scored one run in the game. Think they'll need at least four or five runs to have a chance tomorrow.

 

[AgesBlue]

Personally, I thought Beggs gives us. the best chance to win. But should UK pull it off tomorrow, the pitching sets up pretty well for the rest of the tournament. Can we score enough off the Bama pitcher to get the win, it will be tough. Alabama doesn't hit well, but they pitch well, and play pretty good defense.

 

[Black Diamond Cat]

Some of you guys enlighten me on Bama. How do we match with their hitters, pitchers. Thanks in advance!

Alabama hit .253 as a team, UK hit .273, Bama has hit 29 Homers, UK has hit 51. Bama has a team ERA of 3.48, while UK has a 3.98 ERA. Stolen bases UK 40, Bama 30. Look for a fairly low scoring game.

 

[sluggercatfan]

Alabama hit .253 as a team, UK hit .273, Bama has hit 29 Homers, UK has hit 51. Bama has a team ERA of 3.48, while UK has a 3.98 ERA. Stolen bases UK 40, Bama 30. Look for a fairly low scoring game.

Let's just put it this way...if UK does not win tomorrow there is NO SHOT at ncaat, so why are you not throwing your best. Makes NO sense from my view point

 

[Comebakatz3]

Many of the leagues are having very poor years this year while the SEC and ACC are doing amazing. The ACC has 9 teams in the RPI top 25, and 11 in the top 40. You could very well argue that the entire 11 deserve to be in the NCAA tournament. The SEC has 7 teams in the top 25 in RPI, and 8 in the top 40.

So, these two conferences make up just under half of the top 40 RPI, and most of it is the top half. The SEC has 6 of the RPI top 10, and the ACC makes up the other 4 teams.

Quick breakdown of each conference top 40 RPI teams:

ACC 11
SEC 8
The Big 12 3
The Big 10 2
The Pac-12 2
Sunbelt 1 (I think South Alabama at 42 likely gets in as well, they have 38 wins).
A-10 0
Big East 0
Big South 1
Big West 1 (Should be interesting with Long Beach State and Cal State Fullerton both being in the low 40s)
American 2
Colonial 1
Conf. USA 4
Mid Amercan 0 (Mentioned this one because Kent State has 40 wins on the season, but aren't even top 50 RPI)
Missou Valley 1
Northeast 1
Southland 1 (Squeak in with no. 40, but they have several in the top 50)
West Coast 1

So, that rounds out the top 40. How will the committee decide to split these teams up? Only 33 teams will be at-large bids. So, where do they come from? If you look at the top two conferences they could basically make up over half of the at-large bids given out. That is even before they consider giving UK or Alabama a bid.

I think that we're going to have to get lucky and hope there aren't many upsets if we want to get a bid. I just have a hard time believing that the committee will award 20+ bids to the top two conferences. If they just do the RPI top 40 alone then we're already at 19, and I don't see any way that the SEC's 9th RPI team (UK) gets a bid before the ACC's 11th RPI team considering the 11th comes in at 35th in RPI compared to UK's 55th.

I actually started to look at this to back up my theory that this Alabama/UK game is a sort of play-in game, but after looking at this I think both UK and Alabama have more work to do if they want to get in. They probably have to make a pretty deep SEC tournament run and improve their RPIs while someone like Georgia, the next lowest SEC RPI, gets beat.

 

[Comebakatz3]

By the way, another interesting thing to look at this year is that there really is not a single team our west, or in the north that really deserves to host a regional. They could do the old thing where they let the 2 seed host.

Look at some of the projections this morning is interesting. Kentucky and Georgia are in an interesting spot. UGA has fewer conference wins and fewer overall wins than UK, but they also had the no. 1 overall strength of schedule. UK, on the other hand, was 25th in SOS. Georgia played the 15th hardest non-conference schedule while UK played the 145th. So, will the committee reward Georgia for having a harder schedule, or will they give UK, with the lower RPI, the nod? Can the committee put in a team with a losing record? That might be the make or break for UK.

 

[Derek Terry]

Fact still remains UK will either miss the tourney or barely squeak in with a team that will have about six guys drafted on it. The whole rotation will be selected fairly early in the draft. Will probably change now but as of about three weeks ago Brown was still like the 71st best draft prospect by Baseball America.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Fact still remains UK will either miss the tourney or barely squeak in with a team that will have about six guys drafted on it. The whole rotation will be selected fairly early in the draft. Will probably change now but as of about three weeks ago Brown was still like the 71st best draft prospect by Baseball America.

Perfectly said. If you looked at our pitching rotation to begin the year you'd think we'd be knocking on the door of hosting a regional, but instead we're still looking for a way into the tournament altogether.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I am listening to the broadcast on my computer, but this sounds like Henderson on the broadcast in the Vandy/Mizzou game in the top of the 6th . Am I just crazy or what? At least sounds like him, but with a personality... lol

Edit: I guess it is Ben Mcdonald, but man, on my computer audio he really sounds like Henderson, but with more personality.

 

[Black Diamond Cat]

Many of the leagues are having very poor years this year while the SEC and ACC are doing amazing. The ACC has 9 teams in the RPI top 25, and 11 in the top 40. You could very well argue that the entire 11 deserve to be in the NCAA tournament. The SEC has 7 teams in the top 25 in RPI, and 8 in the top 40.

So, these two conferences make up just under half of the top 40 RPI, and most of it is the top half. The SEC has 6 of the RPI top 10, and the ACC makes up the other 4 teams.

Quick breakdown of each conference top 40 RPI teams:

ACC 11
SEC 8
The Big 12 3
The Big 10 2
The Pac-12 2
Sunbelt 1 (I think South Alabama at 42 likely gets in as well, they have 38 wins).
A-10 0
Big East 0
Big South 1
Big West 1 (Should be interesting with Long Beach State and Cal State Fullerton both being in the low 40s)
American 2
Colonial 1
Conf. USA 4
Mid Amercan 0 (Mentioned this one because Kent State has 40 wins on the season, but aren't even top 50 RPI)
Missou Valley 1
Northeast 1
Southland 1 (Squeak in with no. 40, but they have several in the top 50)
West Coast 1

So, that rounds out the top 40. How will the committee decide to split these teams up? Only 33 teams will be at-large bids. So, where do they come from? If you look at the top two conferences they could basically make up over half of the at-large bids given out. That is even before they consider giving UK or Alabama a bid.

I think that we're going to have to get lucky and hope there aren't many upsets if we want to get a bid. I just have a hard time believing that the committee will award 20+ bids to the top two conferences. If they just do the RPI top 40 alone then we're already at 19, and I don't see any way that the SEC's 9th RPI team (UK) gets a bid before the ACC's 11th RPI team considering the 11th comes in at 35th in RPI compared to UK's 55th.

I actually started to look at this to back up my theory that this Alabama/UK game is a sort of play-in game, but after looking at this I think both UK and Alabama have more work to do if they want to get in. They probably have to make a pretty deep SEC tournament run and improve their RPIs while someone like Georgia, the next lowest SEC RPI, gets beat.

 

[Black Diamond Cat]

Many of the leagues are having very poor years this year while the SEC and ACC are doing amazing. The ACC has 9 teams in the RPI top 25, and 11 in the top 40. You could very well argue that the entire 11 deserve to be in the NCAA tournament. The SEC has 7 teams in the top 25 in RPI, and 8 in the top 40.

So, these two conferences make up just under half of the top 40 RPI, and most of it is the top half. The SEC has 6 of the RPI top 10, and the ACC makes up the other 4 teams.

Quick breakdown of each conference top 40 RPI teams:

ACC 11
SEC 8
The Big 12 3
The Big 10 2
The Pac-12 2
Sunbelt 1 (I think South Alabama at 42 likely gets in as well, they have 38 wins).
A-10 0
Big East 0
Big South 1
Big West 1 (Should be interesting with Long Beach State and Cal State Fullerton both being in the low 40s)
American 2
Colonial 1
Conf. USA 4
Mid Amercan 0 (Mentioned this one because Kent State has 40 wins on the season, but aren't even top 50 RPI)
Missou Valley 1
Northeast 1
Southland 1 (Squeak in with no. 40, but they have several in the top 50)
West Coast 1

So, that rounds out the top 40. How will the committee decide to split these teams up? Only 33 teams will be at-large bids. So, where do they come from? If you look at the top two conferences they could basically make up over half of the at-large bids given out. That is even before they consider giving UK or Alabama a bid.

I think that we're going to have to get lucky and hope there aren't many upsets if we want to get a bid. I just have a hard time believing that the committee will award 20+ bids to the top two conferences. If they just do the RPI top 40 alone then we're already at 19, and I don't see any way that the SEC's 9th RPI team (UK) gets a bid before the ACC's 11th RPI team considering the 11th comes in at 35th in RPI compared to UK's 55th.

I actually started to look at this to back up my theory that this Alabama/UK game is a sort of play-in game, but after looking at this I think both UK and Alabama have more work to do if they want to get in. They probably have to make a pretty deep SEC tournament run and improve their RPIs while someone like Georgia, the next lowest SEC RPI, gets beat.

Georgia is 2 games under .500 at 27-29, unless you are a conference champ, you must have a winning record to be considered. Some of these RPI factors are a joke, there are teams with a SOS over 200 in the top 25-30- of the RPI ratings, some with a 150-160- SOS.....Absurd !!

 

[Comebakatz3]

Georgia is 2 games under .500 at 27-29, unless you are a conference champ, you must have a winning record to be considered. Some of these RPI factors are a joke, there are teams with a SOS over 200 in the top 25-30- of the RPI ratings, some with a 150-160- SOS.....Absurd !!

Ehh... just need to take care of our business and see if we get in. I am entirely torn about the prospect. I honestly believe that Barnhart will try to spin an NCAA tournament trip as some amazing thing for us when it is not at all. It wouldn't surprise me if he uses it as an excuse to extend Henderson's contract. However, if we don't get in then Barnhart really has nothing to stand on. He could still stick with Henderson, but wouldn't have solid footing to back him up.

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

Fact still remains UK will either miss the tourney or barely squeak in with a team that will have about six guys drafted on it. The whole rotation will be selected fairly early in the draft. Will probably change now but as of about three weeks ago Brown was still like the 71st best draft prospect by Baseball America.

This. Absurd that we're in this situation with the talent on hand, and given that we own series wins over Florida and South Carolina. Direct reflection on our manager, if you ask me.

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

Candy beat Mizzou in Game 1. 7-0. Surprising, as it was 0-0 in the fifth the last time I saw a score update but they blew it open toward the end.

 

[Black Diamond Cat]

Ehh... just need to take care of our business and see if we get in. I am entirely torn about the prospect. I honestly believe that Barnhart will try to spin an NCAA tournament trip as some amazing thing for us when it is not at all. It wouldn't surprise me if he uses it as an excuse to extend Henderson's contract. However, if we don't get in then Barnhart really has nothing to stand on. He could still stick with Henderson, but wouldn't have solid footing to back him up.

Understand your concerns, if we don't make the NCAA's Hendo has 1 year left on his contract. I do not believe he will be let go, next year will be do or die with a new stadium in 2018.
My point about the RPI thing is ther is no reward apparently for playing a strong schedule. Might as well go to a Dept. store and get mannequins, put jerseys, caps, and gloves on them and play ???? State U. Football and Basketball place a large emphasis on SOS, but Baseball does not !

 

[Comebakatz3]

Understand your concerns, if we don't make the NCAA's Hendo has 1 year left on his contract. I do not believe he will be let go, next year will be do or die with a new stadium in 2018.
My point about the RPI thing is ther is no reward apparently for playing a strong schedule. Might as well go to a Dept. store and get mannequins, put jerseys, caps, and gloves on them and play ???? State U. Football and Basketball place a large emphasis on SOS, but Baseball does not !

Well, at the same time, if we take care of some of the easy teams that we lost to then we would be easily in with a much higher RPI. We lost 9 games to teams with RPIs over 100, including Wofford (182), Western Kentucky (127), Northern Kentucky (237), Eastern Kentucky (212), Missouri (116), Arkansas x2 (118), Auburn x 2 (136).

If we just beat the two 200+ teams then our record is 34-22 and we may very well be in the 30-35 range in RPI. Add a Wofford win and we're definitely a top 25 team in the RPI. We let these easier teams beat us, many of them at home, and because of that we're on the bubble.

 

[AgesBlue]

Well, at the same time, if we take care of some of the easy teams that we lost to then we would be easily in with a much higher RPI. We lost 9 games to teams with RPIs over 100, including Wofford (182), Western Kentucky (127), Northern Kentucky (237), Eastern Kentucky (212), Missouri (116), Arkansas x2 (118), Auburn x 2 (136).

If we just beat the two 200+ teams then our record is 34-22 and we may very well be in the 30-35 range in RPI. Add a Wofford win and we're definitely a top 25 team in the RPI. We let these easier teams beat us, many of them at home, and because of that we're on the bubble.

Exactly if the cats beat NKU and EKU, their record would be 12 games over .500, instead of 8 games over....BIG difference. This game today vs Bama is sort of an NCAA play in game. Win and you help yourself, lose and go fishing !

 

[sluggercatfan]

Exactly if the cats beat NKU and EKU, their record would be 12 games over .500, instead of 8 games over....BIG difference. This game today vs Bama is sort of an NCAA play in game. Win and you help yourself, lose and go fishing !

Also, if we hadn't lost series to the two worst teams in the league this wouldn't need to be discussed

 

[Black Diamond Cat]

At least we are getting some great discussion on the board today, even if it's only 6 or 7 posters.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Barring a big rally Ole Miss should put away Georgia. Top of the 9th and Ole Miss is up 5-1.