Transfer Portal for MAC and other similar leagues?

[Tskware]

For a long time, I have just assumed that the TP would devastate the lower level Div I teams by allowing the bigger schools to cherry pick their best players annually without penalty, i.e., no one has to sit out a year. This year, for example, we picked up two solid players from Northern Illinois.

But after a year or two, I am wondering if I am not seeing all the angles. Seems like it would be at least theoretically possible that a MAC team could land a solid corps of transfers from Big 10 schools that weren't cutting it at the P5 level, and more or less end up with a roster stocked with players that a MAC school could never have signed out of HS, based on their HS rankings. Same for Appy State in the south, and other similar schools.

For example, Miami O and N Ill. played us about as tough last season as most MAC schools have done over the last 20 years or so, so maybe the lower level schools may lose a few star players but on the whole gain more than they lose with the transfer portal? Thoughts?

 

[vhcat70]

OK, but we know HS rankings are not accurate such that the high HS ranking ones MAC schools get could mainly be overrated HS players.

 

[gamecockcat]

I think you're probably right. The big time schools stockpile talent and, often, a highly rated kid just doesn't see much of the field. Makes sense that they would move to a MAC or similar school to get more exposure, PT and, maybe, be closer to home. Why languish on the bench at OSU when you could be a star at Bowling Green?

 

[UKWildcats1987]

Someone has to win those lower level conferences and sure, some could put together a solid team and go 12-0 or 11-1. Don't ever see any lower level team making the playoff final four or better though.

Top tier teams have too much talent and depth and advantages.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

I think you are right. Even before the portal all of us have kids that just don't work out for whatever reason who went down a level to get on the field. Meanwhile the MAC and other smaller conferences were able to keep their stars because of the sitting out a year rule, a one way street. Today, their elite guys are probably gone, but they are getting more P5 kids moving down to make room on rosters.

 

[K_TIME]

That is a great question...and I can see how the non power 5 schools picking up more transfer portal kids from power 5 schools. Kids like Christian Lewis to Troy, Chauncey Magwood to UCF, etc...are where we can see lower schools obtaining talent vs. those they lose to bigger schools (like UK grabbing the 2 Northern Illinois kids).

But in the end, I struggle to see how lower schools will be happy to see some of their better kids moving on to bigger schools in their last years. As a fan.....I'd care less and less if my team is treated like a minor league baseball team.

 

[UKnCincy]

For a long time, I have just assumed that the TP would devastate the lower level Div I teams by allowing the bigger schools to cherry pick their best players annually without penalty, i.e., no one has to sit out a year. This year, for example, we picked up two solid players from Northern Illinois.

But after a year or two, I am wondering if I am not seeing all the angles. Seems like it would be at least theoretically possible that a MAC team could land a solid corps of transfers from Big 10 schools that weren't cutting it at the P5 level, and more or less end up with a roster stocked with players that a MAC school could never have signed out of HS, based on their HS rankings. Same for Appy State in the south, and other similar schools.

For example, Miami O and N Ill. played us about as tough last season as most MAC schools have done over the last 20 years or so, so maybe the lower level schools may lose a few star players but on the whole gain more than they lose with the transfer portal? Thoughts?

You might be right. I seem to recall Rivals taking a look at the transfer numbers last year. They found that most kids who transferred to a new school ended up moving down a level.

I think they found that only 25% of transfers from Group of 5 schools moved to a Power 5 school while nearly 45% of them moved down to either FCS or Division 2.

Trends were similar for Power 5 schools, with most transfers moving down to either G5, FCS or D2.

Not sure if that’s still holding true. Also not sure how that might change once all the kids with extra COVID years work their way through the system.

 

[Tskware]

That is a great question...and I can see how the non power 5 schools picking up more transfer portal kids from power 5 schools.

But in the end, I struggle to see how lower schools will be happy to see some of their better kids moving on to bigger schools in their last years. As a fan.....I'd care less and less if my team is treated like a minor league baseball team.

That is the way I see it too but not quite as certain now

 

[JHB4UK]

I mean, if a guy at sn SEC school or Big 10 school leaves and his best offer is a MAC....why is he suddenly gonna become a star for them!?!? Guys leave because they aren't playing. And if they aren't playing or being told they will be playing very soon then they probably aren't matching their recruiting rankings.

Don't want to be mean and point out specific kids....but some recent UK players left and went to Group of 5 programs. And they certainly didn't suddenly become all conference level starters.

If you ask MAC coaches I'd bet they prefer the old world. Talent they discover and develop stay with them. and their roster isn't treated like a AA farm team for the major leagues to call up fresh bodies.

 

[K_TIME]

I mean, if a guy at sn SEC school or Big 10 school leaves and his best offer is a MAC....why is he suddenly gonna become a star for them!?!? Guys leave because they aren't playing. And if they aren't playing or being told they will be playing very soon then they probably aren't matching their recruiting rankings.

Don't want to be mean and point out specific kids....but some recent UK players left and went to Group of 5 programs. And they certainly didn't suddenly become all conference level starters.

If you ask MAC coaches I'd bet they prefer the old world. Talent they discover and develop stay with them. and their roster isn't treated like a AA farm team for the major leagues to call up fresh bodies.

That is how I see it....I don't see Wohlbaugh being all MAC and NFL future down the road. I just think these schools losing dudes that are their better plays to P5 is going to get old real quick. I personally see many football programs folding up as part of silliness of college football NIL and portal down the road.

 

[gamalielkid]

I mean, if a guy at sn SEC school or Big 10 school leaves and his best offer is a MAC....why is he suddenly gonna become a star for them!?!? Guys leave because they aren't playing. And if they aren't playing or being told they will be playing very soon then they probably aren't matching their recruiting rankings.

Don't want to be mean and point out specific kids....but some recent UK players left and went to Group of 5 programs. And they certainly didn't suddenly become all conference level starters.

If you ask MAC coaches I'd bet they prefer the old world. Talent they discover and develop stay with them. and their roster isn't treated like a AA farm team for the major leagues to call up fresh

College football is equivalent t

For a long time, I have just assumed that the TP would devastate the lower level Div I teams by allowing the bigger schools to cherry pick their best players annually without penalty, i.e., no one has to sit out a year. This year, for example, we picked up two solid players from Northern Illinois.

But after a year or two, I am wondering if I am not seeing all the angles. Seems like it would be at least theoretically possible that a MAC team could land a solid corps of transfers from Big 10 schools that weren't cutting it at the P5 level, and more or less end up with a roster stocked with players that a MAC school could never have signed out of HS, based on their HS rankings. Same for Appy State in the south, and other similar schools.

For example, Miami O and N Ill. played us about as tough last season as most MAC schools have done over the last 20 years or so, so maybe the lower level schools may lose a few star players but on the whole gain more than they lose with the transfer portal? Thoughts?

College football, if there was ever a question about it, is now truly minor league professional football. The power 5 teams are equivalent to Triple A Baseball and the rest of major college football is Double A. Now, we will see it truly work that way "when call ups" occur as late bloomers, weak academic and hidden gems emerge. The power 5 will trade up in most cases. However, so will the rest of the teams - as they may lose some of their stars - but they will pick up better talent overall as bench sitters will want to play - and that means transferring for many.

That is the real current state of college football. As Calipari likes to say - everyone needs to eat - and this will actually happen. Unfortunately, the titans of college football will be cannibalizing the other power 5 programs and the top ten traditional teams will become even stronger in my opinion. A great coach can rebuild a struggling traditional power 5 program almost overnite- 2 years or less with the transfer portal. We have already seen it!

Go Big Blue!

 

[Tskware]

^
To be honest I'm not sure the really big losers will be the bottom feeeders of the P5 leagues like Vanderbilt for example. They may get hosed coming and going

 

[Cat06]

That is a great question...and I can see how the non power 5 schools picking up more transfer portal kids from power 5 schools. Kids like Christian Lewis to Troy, Chauncey Magwood to UCF, etc...are where we can see lower schools obtaining talent vs. those they lose to bigger schools (like UK grabbing the 2 Northern Illinois kids).

But in the end, I struggle to see how lower schools will be happy to see some of their better kids moving on to bigger schools in their last years. As a fan.....I'd care less and less if my team is treated like a minor league baseball team.

No one is attending Akron Zip games as it is, so there are not a lot of fans to lose in the MAC. ad UK played the game in Akron it would have set a stadium attendance record because of the UK fans.

Personally, I think the OP theory is why UK is putting together better teams. We are getting the cast off's from (mostly) better programs that were not receiving playing time.

 

[maysvilleky]

The lower level teams are going to continue to lose their best/most established players to P5 schools. Their replacements are going to be unproven players who didn’t crack the lineup at their previous school.

 

[TucsonCat]

In the end, water finds its level.
Alabama is going to lose 4 backups, gain 2 all Americans.
Pitt and syracuse lose 2 all Americans, 6 backups. gain 6 starters
G5 teams are going to lose two good starters, but gain 4 decent ones.

Everyone gets better or stays the same, but no one has any depth.
Gone are the days that a G5 team goes 11-1 and has argument for playoffs.

 

[mrschwump]

That is how I see it....I don't see Wohlbaugh being all MAC and NFL future down the road. I just think these schools losing dudes that are their better plays to P5 is going to get old real quick. I personally see many football programs folding up as part of silliness of college football NIL and portal down the road.

Wohlabaugh transferred to Syracuse, not to the MAC.

 

[Tskware]

Everyone gets better or stays the same, but no one has any depth.
Gone are the days that a G5 team goes 11-1 and has argument for playoffs.

no one has any depth=great time to start multi week playoff

 

[JHB4UK]

Remember- if a guy from a power 5 school moves down to the MAC, starts playing like a star....why wouldn't he go back up as a grad transfer? Stay at Akron as a sr to maybe play in the Motor City Bowl....or go to an SEC or Big 10 contending for CFB playoffs & New Yrs bowls? Even if just 2nd string depth?

 

[The-Hack]

Thoughts?

Interesting.

I suspect G5 programs will lose Juniors and Seniors who were recruited ax 2 and 3 Stars, but have proved themselves much better.

And they will get former 4 Stars who have proven themselves worse.

As an example, which would you prefer to see next year at UK: Michael Drennan who was a 4 Star, or any of the many former 2-3 Stars who have excelled at G5 and Vandy?

And as someone alluded to, the Vandys, Oregon States, Illinois, and Virginias of this world might get picked clean.