Top Recruits are NBA Locks. Coaching Doesn't Matter.

[GonzoCat90]

...or so the Internet has led us to believe. I know it's been discussed over the years, and our fans generally disagree with this sentiment, but I wanted to take a closer look.

I went back to Cal's first year here, and I'm going to list the top 5 recruits (plus one or two more in some cases for notable players) at each position, based on Scout.com rankings and let you compare the names and results. This will probably be broken up into different posts for each year.

Here's 2009:

PG
1.John Wall
2.Abdul Gaddy
3.Maalik Wayns
4.Tommy Mason-Griffin
5.Eric Bledsoe
6. Peyton Siva

SG
No UK recruits at this position

SF
1. Lance Stephenson
2. Jordan Hamilton
3. Tyler Honeycutt
4. Dominic Cheek
5. Jamil Wilson

notable: Hood (10th), K. Leonard (17th)

PF
No UK recruits at this position

C
1. Derrick Favors
2. DeMarcus Cousins
3. Tiny Gallon
4. Daniel Orton
5. Alex Oriakhi


2010

PG
1. Kyrie Irving
2. Josh Selby
3. Brandon Knight
4. Cory Joseph
5. Ian Miller


SG
1. Will Barton
2. Reggie Bullock
3. Terrence Ross
4. Dion Waiters
5. Doron Lamb

SF
1. Harrison Barnes
2. Tony Mitchell
3. Jelan Kendrick
4. Jereme Richmond
5. Roscoe Smith

12. Stacey Poole

PF
1. Tobias Harris
2. Terrence Jones
3. Tristan Thompson
4. CJ Leslie
5. Patric Young

C
1. Enes Kanter
2. Jared Sullinger
3. Perry Jones III
4. Fab Melo (RIP)
5. Adreian Payne

11. Gorgui Deng

 

[GonzoCat90]

2011:

PG
1. Marquis Teague
2. Myck Kabongo
3. Josiah Turner
4. Tony Wroten
5. BJ Young

20. Trey Burke

SG
1. Austin Rivers
2. Brad Beal
3. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
4. Wayne Blackshear
5. Jabari Brown

27. Malcolm Brogdon

SF
1. MKG
2. LeBryan Nash
3. Adonis Thomas
4. Branden Dawson
5. Rodney Hood

PF
1. Anthony Davis
2. Quincy Miller
3. James McAdoo
4. Cody Zeller
5. Khem Birch

C
1. Andre Drummond
2. Rakeem Christmas
3. Kyle Wiltjer (I know, center?)
4. Adjehi Baru
5. Amir Williams

8. Zach Price, 22. Frank Kaminsky

 

[KA4Prez]

In many cases, there is a huge difference between the #1/2 player at a position and the #4/5 player.

In general, there is a huge difference in a top 5-10 player and a top 25 player.

If you're a top 5 HS player, more often than not you're a first round pick. It's the guys in the 20-50 range, who might get some 5-star consideration, who are not at all locks to be drafted high.

 

[GonzoCat90]

2012

PG
No UK recruits at this position

SG
1. Rasheed Sulaimon
2. Marcus Smart
3. Archie Goodwin
4. Gary Harris
5. Ricky Ledo

SF
1. Shabazz Mohammad
2. Kyle Anderson
3. Alex Poythress
4. Sam Dekker
5. Devonta Pollard

PF
No UK Players, but it went

1. Bennett
2. Brandon Ashley
3. Amile Jefferson
4. Winston Shepherd
5. Perry Ellis

C
1. Nerlens Noel
2. Isaiah Austin
3. Steven Adams
4. Kaleb Tarczewski
5. Grant Jerrett

15. Willie Cauley-Stein

 

[GonzoCat90]

I'll post more later when I have time, but so far, the trend seems to be that (obviously) not all classes are created equal, so saying someone is a top 10 or top 20 player, or top 5 at their position, is only relative to the class they are in.

So it's more useful to look at it as a comparison to the competition. It's easy to say that MKG disappointed as the second overall pick (even though that's wrong), but when you compare him to the other top-10 overall ranked SFs and the top 5 at that position, to be a national champion, second overall pick, and second contract guy in the league is a big deal.

Same with Teague. No, he isn't John Wall. But did he have a better career than Kabongo, Turner, Young, etc.? Yes. Wroten actually has the best career of that group, but none are setting the world on fire.

 

[StubbornPenny]

It looks like about 2 out of top 5 prospects don't amount to that much, or at least not what they were expected to be. Some of the top guys were just no brainers. A cursory look tells me that if anything, if you do start to flame out or struggle, UK is better at retaining whatever value you still have... in most cases, stay a first rounder (Orton, Goodwin, Skal). If you were on the fringe of being a top player, you can become a one and done fast (Booker, Bledsoe). Of course there's always exceptions to that, but it really can't be clearer that in a basketball world where nothing is guaranteed until they call your name in June that UK is your safest bet for retaining or increasing your value as a NBA prospect.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

I'll post more later when I have time, but so far, the trend seems to be that (obviously) not all classes are created equal, so saying someone is a top 10 or top 20 player, or top 5 at their position, is only relative to the class they are in.

So it's more useful to look at it as a comparison to the competition. It's easy to say that MKG disappointed as the second overall pick (even though that's wrong), but when you compare him to the other top-10 overall ranked SFs and the top 5 at that position, to be a national champion, second overall pick, and second contract guy in the league is a big deal.

Same with Teague. No, he isn't John Wall. But did he have a better career than Kabongo, Turner, Young, etc.? Yes. Wroten actually has the best career of that group, but none are setting the world on fire.

Great points. I look at it like this, particularly in relation to Calipari:

1. 
   
   Playing under Cal creates a world of networking. I think it’s helped certain guys find themselves into guaranteed money at the end of the first round (Orton, Teague, Goodwin, Skal). Does Poythress get a call-up by the 76ers without his Cal networking? Maybe, but we can make a reasonable case that it certainly helps when you have a coach like Cal who is familiar with every GM by name, and is constantly working his channels to help kids along.
   
2. That network is further established by a lifelong brand. Cal’s network has grown exponentially. That counts for guys who are retired looking for organizational jobs or coaching positions. Perhaps only Coach K is as hard-wired as Calipari when it comes to networking beyond the player’s career, and most of K’s relevant networking has probably comes a result of his recent stint with Team USA.
   
   
3. Cal will push you to play better. An argument could be made that the mental transformation in one year at UK is substantially greater than at other programs where OAD talent might have a longer leash and find a pampered environment under desperate coaches.
   
   
4. If you’re legitimate, your brand is well-established even before draft night. Yes, guys like Damion Lillard earned substantial shoe contracts before their NBA careers began, but playing on a stage like Kentucky makes that process easier overall.
   
   
5. You actually have a chance to win on the highest level. Could Monk say that had he chosen Arkansas; or Booker at Missouri; Cousins at UAB? We often forget that most of these players actually care about winning.
   
   
6. Calipari won’t screw up your process. Making a list of guys who were close to picking Kentucky, but have otherwise found a difficult road is not a hard task: Malik Newman, Dajuan Coleman, Devonta Pollard, Perry Ellis, Marques Bolden, Derryck Thornton, James McAdoo, LeBryan Nash, etc. The list is extensive, and for these types of non-elites, a coach like Calipari makes sense because they’re marketed with guys who are actually more substantial and attract more attention. In some cases - probably for guys like Goodwin, Teague, Lamb, Liggins, etc. – Calipari’s system works because it offers better exposure.
   
   
7. For elites like Davis/Wall/etc. – what coach is going to push you harder while giving you a better chance at a title in one season?
   

 

[blugreg]

Among the top ranked recruits that Cal has had, has he had any that could be considered failures...didn't live up to there potential whether that was the NBA or playing professionally somewhere. I don't see any! Teague might be considered the worst..one plus years in NBA and now D League. Same with Lamb.

 

[BigKari]

God whatever happened to like half these guys?? Abdul Gaddy, Ricky Ledo, Khem Birch, Adonis Thomas, Myck Kabongo, Jelan Kendrick, Jereme Richmond. Haven't heard these names in years!!! These were top 10-15 ranked players. These are the guys that "were going to be pro no matter where they went" (I know this is the point of the thread) but wow these names and several others stand out. And look at the schools they went to. UW, Ledo went where? Providence?, Pitt, Memphis, Texas, UNLV (Memphis, Ole Miss), Illi****inois. How many guys in the league from all these schools combined? About 10?

 

[SilentsAreGolden]

Outside of Durant and Tristan Thompson, Texas sure seems to have a lot of elite players that just seem to disappear.

 

[spotter34]

Outside of Durant and Tristan Thompson, Texas sure seems to have a lot of elite players that just seem to disappear.

Don't forget Lemarcus Aldridge. He's a stud. TJ Ford made it to the league but I'm not sure how long he stayed.

But all those guys were under Rick Barnes.

 

[gossie21]

Don't forget Lemarcus Aldridge. He's a stud. TJ Ford made it to the league but I'm not sure how long he stayed.

But all those guys were under Rick Barnes.

Ford had a terrible neck injury. DJ Augustine has stuck around for a while. Myles Turner is looking pretty good. And Avery Bradley has been a solid player for the Celtics.

 

[spotter34]

Ford had a terrible neck injury. DJ Augustine has stuck around for a while. Myles Turner is looking pretty good. And Avery Bradley has been a solid player for the Celtics.

Absolutely, forgot about those guys as well. This hits at the point though that these guys, as heralded as they were coming out of high school, kind of fell off the map so to speak even though they've gone on and had some success. In some cases, quite a bit of success.

 

[StubbornPenny]

Among the top ranked recruits that Cal has had, has he had any that could be considered failures...didn't live up to there potential whether that was the NBA or playing professionally somewhere. I don't see any! Teague might be considered the worst..one plus years in NBA and now D League. Same with Lamb.

I think if you're nitpicking at "failures" you'd say:
Alex Poythress: from "sure fire" lottery to 10 day contracts at the end of the season... but at the end of the day, he's in the NBA and probably will be at least next year.
Archie Goodwin: same thing, was supposed to be lottery, bounced around a bit, and now has a year left on his contract for 1.5 million dollars.
Skal: went from sure lottery to low first. Making a few million on his rookie deal and as of now, it looks like he'll grab at least a decent extension.

Guys who weren't really projected as amazing talents but went anyway
Teague: First round money for a few years, now he's in the D. If he's smart, he can live off that for quite a while.
Lamb: a few cups of coffee and D league. Might be the time to hit overseas if you still can.
Orton: First round money for a couple years, not sure if he's even playing anywhere. Has played for a ton of crazy foreign teams, and is currently playing Lebanon.
Dakari: D league, may get a call up or trade next season. Surprising to see them not waive him and assign him to the D league. That's why Poythress was playing for the Pacer's D team but was allowed to sign with the 76ers.

I can't think of anyone who stayed here and flamed out entirely, never sniffing any meaningful professional experience. Stacey Poole appears to be completely out of basketball, but of course he transferred out. Jury is out on Matthews, another transfer. Wiltjer transferred and now occupies the last spot on the bench for the Rockets, which might be the best job in the NBA - live in Houston, never play, go to the playoffs, and watch James Harden. I'd take that.

Am I missing anyone?

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Mentality has a lot to do with it. If it's a lazy player, or a guy with a bad attitude that can't be fixed, Cal doesn't touch them. It's like every single season, he dodges like 3 or 4 bullets.. We all say "How did we not get the Selby's or the CJ Leslie's!".. And then we learn why, real quick.

We've had how many recruits now? Amazing that we've had no character issues or ego problems. Not a one.

That's not by accident. "Kentucky isn't for everyone".. he says to Anthony Freaking Davis..

 

[RDCat07]

i think the main thing is that the top of the top guys have to answer is at what other program will i get top TV exposure, be talked about on ESPN, have a coach that is putting my needs above the programs needs, and will market me all the way up until the draft. Cal/ UK also seem to prepare these guys for life in the nba player off the court (social media presents, money, good decision making off the court, giving back to the community)

 

[playmorezeppelin]

I would like to also point out that in the 2011-2012 season (y'all know what happened that year) the entering class/NBA draft class were both absolutely stacked. Then, in 2012-2013 (again, y'all know what happened); weak as pond water.

 

[GonzoCat90]

I would like to also point out that in the 2011-2012 season (y'all know what happened that year) the entering class/NBA draft class were both absolutely stacked. Then, in 2012-2013 (again, y'all know what happened); weak as pond water.

Absolutely, our approach really only allows us to be as good as the incoming freshmen compared to the returning group of upperclassmen across the country.

But from a development, exposure, "no busts" standpoint, even in down years, Archie Goodwin is out performing Ricky Ledo or Nerlens Noel is outperforming Grant Jerrett.


There's just too many examples among comparatively ranked players for it to be luck or random or based on "just being ranked highly."


I also think several folks have made a good point that it speaks to Cal's ability ro evaluate talent and personalities. If we were just recruiting the talented troubled players who are "for sale" like detractors say, you wouldn't see the results from a grade, team, community, and performance standpoint. You can go look at the lists and make some monster classes each year full of guys who wanted a UK offer but Cal never touched. We usually call them Jayhawks.

 

[Mojocat]

We've had how many recruits now? Amazing that we've had no character issues or ego problems. Not a one.

This thread is an interesting topic - many things to be said. Most interesting to me is Cal's batting average - dude just doesn't miss. I've heard Pitino say that about him, that Cal is a great judge of talent, he never swings and misses completely. Now, the more kids he has, the less absolutely true that will be. Eventually, with enough kids, you're going to have a Poythress or Harrison twins who don't end up lottery picks, and then the detractors can have something to point at. But really, Cal's batting average is amazing - in two ways. One, on sheer talent. Again, he doesn't get the kid who ends up being a total bust. Even Skal, who looked like that, turns out not to be. Cal gets in the box 10 or 20 times as much as most coaches, and has fewer strikeouts. Second, as the quote above says, he doesn't miss on character. We've not had the first knucklehead. I suppose you could argue DeMarcus meets the definition, but here he was well behaved.

Some of that is a function of Cal's reputation now being such that he gets first bite at the apple - he gets to pick and choose which kids he gets, so he doesn't have to take chances, so he's not likely to miss on ability or character. But at least as much of it is he just has a real eye for it.....

 

[Double Oaked Juice]

Absolutely, our approach really only allows us to be as good as the incoming freshmen compared to the returning group of upperclassmen across the country.

But from a development, exposure, "no busts" standpoint, even in down years, Archie Goodwin is out performing Ricky Ledo or Nerlens Noel is outperforming Grant Jerrett.


There's just too many examples among comparatively ranked players for it to be luck or random or based on "just being ranked highly."


I also think several folks have made a good point that it speaks to Cal's ability ro evaluate talent and personalities. If we were just recruiting the talented troubled players who are "for sale" like detractors say, you wouldn't see the results from a grade, team, community, and performance standpoint. You can go look at the lists and make some monster classes each year full of guys who wanted a UK offer but Cal never touched. We usually call them Jayhawks.

Exactly. The only time we've legitimately lost out to Kansas, in recent memory, was Andrew Wiggins. But even that was probably Adidas more than anything else.

 

[StubbornPenny]

This thread is an interesting topic - many things to be said. Most interesting to me is Cal's batting average - dude just doesn't miss. I've heard Pitino say that about him, that Cal is a great judge of talent, he never swings and misses completely. Now, the more kids he has, the less absolutely true that will be. Eventually, with enough kids, you're going to have a Poythress or Harrison twins who don't end up lottery picks, and then the detractors can have something to point at. But really, Cal's batting average is amazing - in two ways. One, on sheer talent. Again, he doesn't get the kid who ends up being a total bust. Even Skal, who looked like that, turns out not to be. Cal gets in the box 10 or 20 times as much as most coaches, and has fewer strikeouts. Second, as the quote above says, he doesn't miss on character. We've not had the first knucklehead. I suppose you could argue DeMarcus meets the definition, but here he was well behaved.

Some of that is a function of Cal's reputation now being such that he gets first bite at the apple - he gets to pick and choose which kids he gets, so he doesn't have to take chances, so he's not likely to miss on ability or character. But at least as much of it is he just has a real eye for it.....

This. Considering the egos coming through here - let's face it, top athletes are gonna have egos - it's almost a miracle how well they behave and how much they buy into to team concept. Tubby would have had 7 team turmoils by now.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I'd actually say that while the twins and Poythress didn't have egos in the normal sense of the word, they were some of our weaker recruits, mentally, that we've had. Still, they were far from any true detriment. But body language and being engaged needed some work.

Them, Orton (who wasn't even Cal's guy), and.. who else? You could say Cousins is a bit of a hothead, but he's emotional and plays for his team.

Honestly.. the guys I listed above are like 7 out of 10.. at worst. It's really splitting hairs trying to find a "problem" recruit.. meanwhile Kansas and Duke this year alone, lmfao.