Thoughts on season so far

[Tskware]

I have attended at least parts of three games and followed the season pretty closely. So far, I see UK with a decent pitching staff, no one pitcher is overpowering, but they have a lot of guys throwing around 90 and have depth. That probably is the team strength. Have not seen enough game action to judge the defense yet.

Give credit where credit is due with Ming, he is trying to be a base running and bunting small ball team, out of necessity, but at least he is trying. Problem I see is that UK really doesn't have a great deal of team speed, and the bunting is inconsistent, sometimes it works, but not perfect by any means.

But the big picture to me that makes the team so hard to evaluate is that the schedule has been really light so far, have played a lot of really bad teams. Next Tuesday we play Indiana, mid week games are of course a crap shoot, but they are at least a B10 team. And then SEC play starts. I would not be surprised if this turns out to be a typical UK season, e.g., run up a big record playing non conference patsies, but then reality sets in once we play SEC/Louisville games. But maybe we can squeak out some low scoring wins with good pitching. Fingers still crossed . . .

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

I have attended at least parts of three games and followed the season pretty closely. So far, I see UK with a decent pitching staff, no one pitcher is overpowering, but they have a lot of guys throwing around 90 and have depth. That probably is the team strength. Have not seen enough game action to judge the defense yet.

Give credit where credit is due with Ming, he is trying to be a base running and bunting small ball team, out of necessity, but at least he is trying. Problem I see is that UK really doesn't have a great deal of team speed, and the bunting is inconsistent, sometimes it works, but not perfect by any means.

But the big picture to me that makes the team so hard to evaluate is that the schedule has been really light so far, have played a lot of really bad teams. Next Tuesday we play Indiana, mid week games are of course a crap shoot, but they are at least a B10 team. And then SEC play starts. I would not be surprised if this turns out to be a typical UK season, e.g., run up a big record playing non conference patsies, but then reality sets in once we play SEC/Louisville games. But maybe we can squeak out some low scoring wins with good pitching. Fingers still crossed . . .

I think this is a pretty good insight early on for this year. The problem I see is the same as every year. The SEC. Its probably better this year then it has been the last couple. South Carolina is really good. Alabama can flat out hit. Mizzou is better but still has a ton of questions going into SEC play. What is discerning is the last 4 conference weekends. @Vandy, home against Carolina, @Tennessee and then end with Florida. Yikes.

 

[briarcreek]

Great post! The competition is getting ready to ramp up but the pitching staff has thrown strikes so far which is something that’s been a struggle in the past. I think the defense has been really solid but the question is still going to be can they score enough runs against SEC pitching.

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

You know whats interesting to me? Ive seen two projections for the NCAA, and yes I know its only week 4, but neither one has had Kentucky in it. As far as I can find, I dont see UK getting any votes for being in the top 25 across the major polls. And right now, UK sets 60th in RPI.

 

[Tskware]

You know whats interesting to me? Ive seen two projections for the NCAA, and yes I know its only week 4, but neither one has had Kentucky in it. As far as I can find, I dont see UK getting any votes for being in the top 25 across the major polls. And right now, UK sets 60th in RPI.

Easy answer is they haven't played anybody yet. Will find out a lot more in probably 2 weeks

 

[dtjr]

Easy answer is they haven't played anybody yet. Will find out a lot more in probably 2 weeks

Yep

They need to sweep this weekend and hopefully start to hit better with runners in scoring position.

Pitching has been good against inferior teams so far.

As you said after this weekend we will start to see if its a better team or the same old.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Way back when we had Henderson we seemed to always have some outstanding weekend starters. Typically, it was the bullpen, the middle innings, where we struggled. So, we just really struggled with depth in that pen. Roszel has not yet really built that front end pitching, but it seems like he has an entire bullpen of above average to good pitchers. Maybe one great reliever type sprinkled in like we saw with Guilfoil last year. I think that this can be a pretty effective route for us as we have a ton of arms and if one guy doesn't have it we have numerous guys behind him to pick him up. Roszel also seems to have a good feel for when a guy doesn't have it and he doesn't often seem to let the game get too far away from them. How many times have his mound visits seemingly entirely changed around innings? So, I don't know that our pitching will necessarily be dominant this year, but I think it can be effective as a group. You find the right arm, or combination of, for that day.

Hitting is where we really have to figure things out. Hitting well as a team average, 6th overall in the SEC to this point, with a .318 average. However, we're struggling to score runs. We are second to last in overall runs and average runs per game. We are also second to last in strikeouts. We are only ahead of Vandy right now in runs scored, but Vandy has played a schedule ranked 55th while we've played a schedule ranked 154th. South Carolina is just ahead of us on strikeouts with 130 to our 121, but they've played 1 more game and their schedule is ranked 88th. So, those two categories are concerning. The question there is... do we begin to smooth out the strikeouts and get more runs, or does the average come down? I would imagine that it is more likely that the average comes down and the runs become harder as we face pitchers that are less likely to make as many mistake pitches.

We will see how things go with both of them. There are some things that are encouraging, and some other things that are concerning. If you put my feet to the fire and made me bet, I'd say that we're again looking at being in that 11-13 range.

 

[SeanCain]

Good points from everyone in this thread. I’m going to try and take my son to the Mississippi State game next weekend. Curious to see them in person.

 

[Crazycat68]

South Carolina SOS was boosted by the 3 games with Clemson. Prior to that they played no one.

Evansville going 17 innings with Vandy makes me feel better about the cats.

As I know y’all are aware we’ve had entirely too many picked off or CS. We have been running ourselves out of a lot of innings.

Very impressed with Pitre and Gilliam..

 

[backinky2018]

I've been to 3-4 games and I've listened or watched several others. Pitching is definitely better from a depth standpoint. I would like to have seen at least one more weekend sweep up to this point, but we won every series so that is the important thing.

Hitting seems to be improving. We were leaving a ton of men on base in the early games, but seem to be doing more with 2 outs than we were doing.

The schedule has been very soft. I think the MSU series is going to be a good indicator. They're probably the worst team in the SEC. If we can't win the series against them at home, then it might be a long year.

Cautiously optimistic at this point. This SHOULD be a NCAA tourney or bust situation for Ming.

 

[Tskware]

Number of pitches per game seems to be considerably less this season than in past years hope that continues when we start seeing better teams

 

[CockyCat3]

I think that our SOS will even out with other teams as the season goes along. We actually played some traditionally good mid majors where other schools have played either complete nobodies, or other P5 schools. SC for example has played no one, but they did play their usual series with Clemson, so their SOS right now is high. Most of the teams we have played have played other tough teams too, so their records arent great, which affects our SOS negatively. But, wait for teams like Wright State, Elon and Indiana State, SIU and maybe even evansville to get into their conference season and stop getting beat up by P5 schools, they will win more games and thus affect our SOS positively. Wright State traveled to Hawaii, then went up against us and the Arkansas... so it is not surprising they have taken beatings. But then they beat Miami of Ohio like 23-7 or something like that. So, they arent bad, the SOS just doesnt know how good they can be, just that they have been losing their games. Elon won a series against Akron and then swept Quinnipac. Not great schools, but will they be able to do the same in conference? I think we have to really hope that these teams have years like the usually do and win a lot of conference games.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I think we have to really hope that these teams have years like the usually do and win a lot of conference games.

My mindset is different. These games are preps for SEC baseball. They help you to learn about and improve your team. How they do moving forward doesn't matter much to me. I put more value in how they prep us for the league.

If we win in conference then the schedule outside of it doesn't matter too much. You finish 6th in the SEC and no one will care who you played the first month. You finish 12th and you're not going to make it, even if you padded the resume with RPI stuffers.

I'd like to have seen us play one weekend against actual traditional powers, even if it's a smaller name. I think you get more value from that than Elon on the road.

 

[CockyCat3]

Yeah I think that may be a function of the way that they've built the team. When you've got essentially an entirely new team I think you'd rather lead the season off with an Elon rather than a Louisville or an Indiana or something. That way you can see what's working and try to do some gelling as a team instead of getting your teeth kicked while trying to find your lineup. I'm pretty pleased with where things are right now this year. It's a weird year with a lot of sec schools losing games and series they shouldn't have so who knows, it could be a year where we finish 10th, 11th, or 12th in the SEC but get in over a team ahead of us because of our RPI and out of conference schedule.

 

[dswbigbluefan]

Two things jump out to me thus far... The lack of walks given up and the lack of errors committed. Those are probably the most encouraging things thus far. Also it looks we have some starters that will be give us a chance on the weekends and we have some depth in the bullpen. The team whip is hovering right at 1.0, which pretty crazy for a full team.

 

[Tskware]

Number of pitches per game seems to be considerably less this season than in past years hope that continues when we start seeing better teams

To follow up on my point, yesterday, in a 9 inning game, Cats threw only 132 pitches (good for college baseball), relievers pitched four innings without a BB.

OTOH, S. Illinois threw 189 pitches

The importance of throwing strikes can never be overstated. At least in my humble opinion . . .

 

[CockyCat3]

Don't look know, but we are at #15 RPI right now. So, the early season out of conference has been executed like it needed to be and seems like we got the result we were looking for. Now, let's just handle business in conference play.

RPI (Live) 2023 College Baseball | WarrenNolan.com

2023 College Baseball RPI (Rating Percentage Index) Updated in REAL-TIME for Every Team at the Completion of Every Game.

www.warrennolan.com

 

[SeanCain]

I’ll be at Saturday’s game vs MSU. If anyone else is going let me know. I’d love to meet some of you guys in person.

 

[CockyCat3]

I’ll be at Saturday’s game vs MSU. If anyone else is going let me know. I’d love to meet some of you guys in person.

Make sure you join in the 2 strike - Uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu K!!! cheer when you are there! 😀

 

[Tskware]

Tomorrow's game should be interesting Indiana has played Auburn, Long Beach State and Texas and has a 10 and 6 record overall. Wonder which pitchers will go for UK?

 

[briarcreek]

Tomorrow's game should be interesting Indiana has played Auburn, Long Beach State and Texas and has a 10 and 6 record overall. Wonder which pitchers will go for UK?

I would assume Travis Smith will get the start. After that will be interesting, Cotto didn’t pitch this weekend so I’d think he is likely to get some innings tomorrow.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I would assume Travis Smith will get the start. After that will be interesting, Cotto didn’t pitch this weekend so I’d think he is likely to get some innings tomorrow.

Pitching use has been a little interesting. We haven't used Cotto, Hagenow and Hise as much as I thought we might. For instance, Stricky has pitched 10 innings so far while Hagenow has 7, Cotto 4.2 and Hise just 3. Even Nove has 6.2, and I certainly didn't think he'd feature as much as those three, especially Cotto and Hagenow.

Also that Moore has 3 saves while Chavez has none.

Not saying these are bad things, just different than expected.

 

[Comebakatz3]

 

[Tskware]

View embedded media

Given that the weather is going to be horrible this week, that is a good idea

 

[CockyCat3]

Pitching use has been a little interesting. We haven't used Cotto, Hagenow and Hise as much as I thought we might. For instance, Stricky has pitched 10 innings so far while Hagenow has 7, Cotto 4.2 and Hise just 3. Even Nove has 6.2, and I certainly didn't think he'd feature as much as those three, especially Cotto and Hagenow.

Also that Moore has 3 saves while Chavez has none.

Not saying these are bad things, just different than expected.

It has certainly been interesting. I have been thinking that they were putting in Nove or others because there were low leverage situations and they were waiting for higher leverage situations to bring in Hise, Chavez, etc. but there just haven't been a ton of high leverage situations. So, I am curious if some of those names are just lower in the pecking order, or if just the situations haven't presented themselves in the right way yet to use those arms and we will see a lot more of the in the SEC. It does seem like if they were planning for these guys to be factors, they would have found a way to get them more innings before now, though. It seems like we have a stable of arms though, huh?

 

[Comebakatz3]

It has certainly been interesting. I have been thinking that they were putting in Nove or others because there were low leverage situations and they were waiting for higher leverage situations to bring in Hise, Chavez, etc. but there just haven't been a ton of high leverage situations. So, I am curious if some of those names are just lower in the pecking order, or if just the situations haven't presented themselves in the right way yet to use those arms and we will see a lot more of the in the SEC. It does seem like if they were planning for these guys to be factors, they would have found a way to get them more innings before now, though. It seems like we have a stable of arms though, huh?

We certainly have a lot of options. I feel like there have been some higher leverage type situations where I figured they'd bring in Chavez as closer. That is what we thought he'd be. For instance, he could have came in to pitch the 9th against Evansville or even the 8th and 9th against Indiana State in each game. Both those are save opportunities that went to Moore. I think a part of that, at least with the Evansville game, is that Roszel is not sticking to roles. If a guy is pitching well, he will stay in. Indiana State game 1 might have been similar. Moore threw a solid 8th, might as well ride that good arm in the 9th as well. Then in game 2 against Indiana State, we had Williams who pitched 5 total. Again, pitching well, so he didn't come out. This kind of bit us in the first SIU game as we kind of rode Moore a bit too much and then finally took him out for Chavez, who shut the door.

But I think it is more surprising that Hagenow and Cotto aren't two of the first arms out of them bullpen given how highly regarded they are.

 

[briarcreek]

At the beginning of the season it appeared that Williams, Strickland, Cotto, Giles, Hagenow and Chavez were going to be the weekend bullpen guys. Cotto and Strickland have both had a rough outing or two and the staff now seems to be relying on Moore and Nove ahead of them. Will be interesting to see if that continues against SEC competition.

 

[Cats8585]

I think we’ve seen them try to stick with Moore a couple of times. It worked in one game and didn’t work this weekend.

Hagenow and Strickland have been regulars so far this season. I wouldn’t say IP is a bigger indicator over the appearances.

Maybe I’m just crazy (or old) but I believe the broadcast mentioned Chavez being out of town the Indiana State weekend. I think we will see him when the game is on the line.

Cotto has been odd, but he also hasn’t pitched that well. Maybe he has slid down the pecking order some and Nove is being groomed to be the LHP in the bullpen?

I’m sure there will be some hiccups as the competition grows but the pitching staff has thrown really well. Sometimes when a staff is throwing that well it is difficult to find innings and roles because of everyone’s success. This isn’t typically something we see in the MLB due to 5-6 games a week but in college I feel like a lot of teams don’t throw their main pitchers a lot during the non conference schedule.

 

[briarcreek]

An NCAA tournament bid is still going to come down to the SEC record but the strategy of playing a series at S. Illinois for RPI purposes did work. We were 60th in the RPI last week and 17th today.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I think we’ve seen them try to stick with Moore a couple of times. It worked in one game and didn’t work this weekend.

Hagenow and Strickland have been regulars so far this season. I wouldn’t say IP is a bigger indicator over the appearances.

Maybe I’m just crazy (or old) but I believe the broadcast mentioned Chavez being out of town the Indiana State weekend. I think we will see him when the game is on the line.

Cotto has been odd, but he also hasn’t pitched that well. Maybe he has slid down the pecking order some and Nove is being groomed to be the LHP in the bullpen?

I’m sure there will be some hiccups as the competition grows but the pitching staff has thrown really well. Sometimes when a staff is throwing that well it is difficult to find innings and roles because of everyone’s success. This isn’t typically something we see in the MLB due to 5-6 games a week but in college I feel like a lot of teams don’t throw their main pitchers a lot during the non conference schedule.

Don't get me wrong, I haven't had any major issues with it and I am not sure that it is an indication of anything. It is just a bit different than I thought it would play out. That isn't overly unusual, I'm wrong a lot.

Part of it, I think, is that you have guys like Hagenow and Cotto that were pegged as possible starters. Lee going on Sunday is a bit of a surprise there. So, I thought we might also see something like we see on Friday, where we lean heavily on Cotto or Hagenow to eat up 3-5 innings in relief, but that hasn't happened and they have kind of been more spot guys to this point. Nothing wrong with that, just interesting.

 

[Cats8585]

Don't get me wrong, I haven't had any major issues with it and I am not sure that it is an indication of anything. It is just a bit different than I thought it would play out. That isn't overly unusual, I'm wrong a lot.

Part of it, I think, is that you have guys like Hagenow and Cotto that were pegged as possible starters. Lee going on Sunday is a bit of a surprise there. So, I thought we might also see something like we see on Friday, where we lean heavily on Cotto or Hagenow to eat up 3-5 innings in relief, but that hasn't happened and they have kind of been more spot guys to this point. Nothing wrong with that, just interesting.

Agreed. It feels like for the staff to be as good as possible, Cotto will have to give a good 2-3 innings a week. Hagenow has looked better each time out.

After the way he was used Saturday, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him throw shorter stints and maybe he used in higher leverage situations.

 

[Comebakatz3]

An NCAA tournament bid is still going to come down to the SEC record but the strategy of playing a series at S. Illinois for RPI purposes did work. We were 60th in the RPI last week and 17th today.

The Warren Nolan website is so strange. On the mainpage we are listed as 16th. Click on us and it lists us at 47 "down 31 since March 12". Interestingly, I don't think that this weekend really helped as much as the fact that Indiana State has jumped to 35th in RPI because Northeastern has jumped to 4th. Elon and Evansville are also both in the 70s, so they are Q2 wins. SIU is at 119 as a Q3 win. Feels like those numbers will fluctuate quite a bit.

 

[Tskware]

I tend to be too much of a simple minded person. But to me there are 33 games that really count: the SEC, 2 versus Louisville and one versus Indiana. The rest are just fluff.

 

[Tskware]

Given that the weather is going to be horrible this week, that is a good idea

The high temperature for Saturday AND Sunday is going to be 39 degrees.

 

[SeanCain]

The high temperature for Saturday AND Sunday is going to be 39 degrees.

I’ll be there freezing on Saturday. I’ve been trying to get my 12 year old son to understand how cold it will be. He thinks a hoodie will be just fine.