The problem with transfers is discerning starters from depth players

[YaketySax]

Levis turned out to be a good player who should not have been splitting reps at PSU. Wandale looked like a home run from the start. T. Robinson was VT’s best receiver last year but average this year. Manning from Auburn was not a big help.

How do we judge?

Nothing is full proof but look at their previous production, look at UK’s current depth chart, and go with your gut.

Stephen Herron at OLB? I don’t know but meh. The Glasgow kid from Bama didn’t get many snaps but at least he has two years and plays interior OL. Lacey didn’t have many snaps and isn’t a position of need.

Above all else, don’t take KSR speculation for anything more than seeing one single connection to UK and talking about it as if there’s five connections.

Do we take a bench player at a non-SEC school and expect them to be a star at UK? Or at a minimum expect them to be worth one of 85 scholarships total that could be used on another?

 

[YaketySax]

All IMO but this is what gets me through all the fuss and knowing I’ll be wrong sometimes like with Levis who I thought would be Stephen Johnson or Terry Wilson level but was better than both.

 

[catben]

I agree.

I will add that Coach Stoops and his staff have been VERY GOOD at bringing in players that actually help or are a hedge against our young guys not being ready.

Listening to Coach Stoops on his radio show, Dare Rosenthal was told by EVERYONE at UK that another year and he could be drafted. He didn't listen and relied on his ENTOURAGE which led him in the WRONG direction and he wasn't drafted and didn't make a roster. If he returned, it would have benefited Dare and UK.

 

[sieken]

I think Heron is a take, JJ has an injury history, so even if he comes back, the depth would be a plus with Wade.

 

[Jont0805]

That’s why they get paid $9 million a year and the assistants get highly compensated as well.

There are a lot of factors that determine why a player is or is not successful at a program. Just because they don’t play at one place doesn’t mean they won’t contribute or be a star somewhere else. We have several leave a year in basketball that contribute elsewhere.

One good thing not mentioned too much about the portal I think is the transfer is one time only for free. So if you bring in a young guy that means they are pretty much stuck at your school till they graduate.

Seems like recruiting successful freshman at other schools will be the way to go moving forward. I know it’s not supposed to be that way, but we all know it will be.

 

[JHB4UK]

Yes my dude, evaluating and projecting the talent of 17, 18, 19 yr olds is tricky & imprecise

That's why the signing classes are 25 in number! And the roster is 85! NFL plays a more physical game for 18 games with a 53 man roster. Lots of CFB kids get hurt, or never develop, or just not want to put in the time & effort.

 

[YaketySax]

Yes my dude, evaluating and projecting the talent of 17, 18, 19 yr olds is tricky & imprecise

That's why the signing classes are 25 in number! And the roster is 85! NFL plays a more physical game for 18 games with a 53 man roster. Lots of CFB kids get hurt, or never develop, or just not want to put in the time & effort.

I don't disagree but I'd rather spend one of my 85 on developing a HS kid than one of my 85 on a borderline transfer who probably has already established his baseline.

It's also a harbinger for where these smart coaches know they have gaps. Manning being a take last year was a red flat the interior OL needed time for development.

 

[YaketySax]

Just because they don’t play at one place doesn’t mean they won’t contribute or be a star somewhere else.

It's not 100% but it's usually a strong sign that a player that can't see the field in most places that aren't blue bloods can't be a starter at Kentucky. Lateral transfers are usually lateral players, but NOT ALWAYS!

I'd love to get a starter from a blue blood alas those kids don't usually transfer.

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

Levis turned out to be a good player who should not have been splitting reps at PSU. Wandale looked like a home run from the start. T. Robinson was VT’s best receiver last year but average this year. Manning from Auburn was not a big help.

How do we judge?

Nothing is full proof but look at their previous production, look at UK’s current depth chart, and go with your gut.

Stephen Herron at OLB? I don’t know but meh. The Glasgow kid from Bama didn’t get many snaps but at least he has two years and plays interior OL. Lacey didn’t have many snaps and isn’t a position of need.

Above all else, don’t take KSR speculation for anything more than seeing one single connection to UK and talking about it as if there’s five connections.

Do we take a bench player at a non-SEC school and expect them to be a star at UK? Or at a minimum expect them to be worth one of 85 scholarships total that could be used on another?

For the OL I would like to see them go after that other linemen from Alabama or the guy from northern Illinois

 

[YaketySax]

I think Heron is a take, JJ has an injury history, so even if he comes back, the depth would be a plus with Wade.

If JJ transfers or goes pro then I'd be good with it, but even if he was great for a bad Stanford team I wouldn't be super pumped for him either

cfbstats.com - Stephen Herron 2022 Player Statistics - Stanford Cardinal

cfbstats.com

One could argue his production in the SEC would be lower than the P12. He didn't even replicate production that Boogie Watson achieved vs SEC competition across two seasons of consistency.

I would categorize him in the depth signing bin, think he'd do fine, doubt he starts, but also hope for more.

 

[Jont0805]

It's not 100% but it's usually a strong sign that a player that can't see the field in most places that aren't blue bloods can't be a starter at Kentucky. Lateral transfers are usually lateral players, but NOT ALWAYS!

I'd love to get a starter from a blue blood alas those kids don't usually transfer.

True but just because they come from a blue blood doesn’t mean they are gonna light the world on fire at a smaller school either.


So much depends on the actual player, situation and why they are transferring.

Wandale wanted to be a receiver, Scott frost wanted to use him to run the entire offense through, worked out great for us.

But if a guy just leaves a mid program because he is unhappy with playing time at program that is average, chances are they won’t be great at a school about the same as they left.

 

[YaketySax]

True but just because they come from a blue blood doesn’t mean they are gonna light the world on fire at a smaller school either.


So much depends on the actual player, situation and why they are transferring.

Wandale wanted to be a receiver, Scott frost wanted to use him to run the entire offense through, worked out great for us.

But if a guy just leaves a mid program because he is unhappy with playing time at program that is average, chances are they won’t be great at a school about the same as they left.

I don't think we disagree. I think Levis and Robinson are great examples of players where a lot depended on the players and their situations.

When I say blue blood I'm saying someone from a blue blood's two-deep. Not one of their third or fourth strings.

UK hit the lottery on the transfer portal in 2021 but this year was a back to Earth year. I think the latter is more common than the former. I think the portal is a way to Moneyball today's NIL to some extent, but I think we have to look at it like players are cogs improving the whole rather than we are getting the next All-SEC [insert position here].

I have a very boring answer to building rosters: sign Top 25 classes and using the portal piecemeal to fill gaps here and there with quality talent that can start to make up for recruiting misses.

 

[sieken]

If JJ transfers or goes pro then I'd be good with it, but even if he was great for a bad Stanford team I wouldn't be super pumped for him either

cfbstats.com - Stephen Herron 2022 Player Statistics - Stanford Cardinal

cfbstats.com

One could argue his production in the SEC would be lower than the P12. He didn't even replicate production that Boogie Watson achieved vs SEC competition across two seasons of consistency.

I would categorize him in the depth signing bin, think he'd do fine, doubt he starts, but also hope for more.

I thought he was a junior. they might not spend one here unless they miss on others and have a spare scholarship.

 

[YaketySax]

I thought he was a junior. they might not spend one here unless they miss on others and have a spare scholarship.

Getting him for two years is a good point!

 

[mrschwump]

Levis turned out to be a good player who should not have been splitting reps at PSU. Wandale looked like a home run from the start. T. Robinson was VT’s best receiver last year but average this year. Manning from Auburn was not a big help.

How do we judge?

Nothing is full proof but look at their previous production, look at UK’s current depth chart, and go with your gut.

Stephen Herron at OLB? I don’t know but meh. The Glasgow kid from Bama didn’t get many snaps but at least he has two years and plays interior OL. Lacey didn’t have many snaps and isn’t a position of need.

Above all else, don’t take KSR speculation for anything more than seeing one single connection to UK and talking about it as if there’s five connections.

Do we take a bench player at a non-SEC school and expect them to be a star at UK? Or at a minimum expect them to be worth one of 85 scholarships total that could be used on another?

Tayvion Robinson missed a lot of PT this year due to injury. Prior to that he had played well, not on Wandale level, but really well. I'm hoping he comes back and stays healthy in '23.

Herron is a football player. He would be a really nice addition to the UK D.

 

[YaketySax]

I'm reminded of the hype surrounding depth player Darrion Henry-Young. Depth is good! The argument is depth players are in one bin that is pretty common, but Will Levis or Wandale-level players are in a rarer bin.

If we are all saying depth signings are good then we probably pretty much agree. With my small caveat that not every transfer will be a depth signing in the SEC, nor should they take a slot from a HS signee we want to give a shot to develop first.

 

[YaketySax]

Tayvion Robinson missed a lot of PT this year due to injury. Prior to that he had played well, not on Wandale level, but really well. I'm hoping he comes back and stays healthy in '23.

Herron is a football player. He would be a really nice addition to the UK D.

Herron has 5.5 sacks and 6.5 TFL in the PAC12. He wouldn't be Top 40 in the SEC for TFL but with sacks he'd be 10th. Would he do those numbers against SEC competition?

As a depth signing I'm fine with it. I also don't see it as a game-changing player who will see the field on Sundays. He's had four years of CFB and he is who he is at this point. He's not going to get appreciably bigger, faster, or stronger. Now, marginally he just might! But that would make him more a borderline starter or quality backup level.

 

[SpamburgerHamburger]

It's just scouting and recruiting just like high-school kids. Probably easier since they've usually played again college competition. But no coach or staff is gonna bat 100%. Some guys just don't work out they way you want or hope.

 

[YaketySax]

It's just scouting and recruiting just like high-school kids. Probably easier since they've usually played again college competition. But no coach or staff is gonna bat 100%. Some guys just don't work out they way you want or hope.

Yeah this was meant for posters not the professionals

 

[sluggercatfan]

Levis turned out to be a good player who should not have been splitting reps at PSU. Wandale looked like a home run from the start. T. Robinson was VT’s best receiver last year but average this year. Manning from Auburn was not a big help.

How do we judge?

Nothing is full proof but look at their previous production, look at UK’s current depth chart, and go with your gut.

Stephen Herron at OLB? I don’t know but meh. The Glasgow kid from Bama didn’t get many snaps but at least he has two years and plays interior OL. Lacey didn’t have many snaps and isn’t a position of need.

Above all else, don’t take KSR speculation for anything more than seeing one single connection to UK and talking about it as if there’s five connections.

Do we take a bench player at a non-SEC school and expect them to be a star at UK? Or at a minimum expect them to be worth one of 85 scholarships total that could be used on another?

Got to admit l was surprised, wrong and Happy with WR...much better than I thought!