This post is in response to some of you who have asked for my thoughts on UK's class, or asked for a "State of the Class", even a look into the future. While Kentucky is undeniably in a great position on the field, it's natural for fans to look down the road in the hopes that things might continue or even to improve.
Before I do that, I'll lay the groundwork by pointing out some ironies that aren't just fun mental exercises. These historical moments should be lessons every time a recruit commits elsewhere, every time the staff takes someone we're not as familiar with, etc.
— If Tyrone Riley had not flipped from Kentucky to NC State, there is a real chance the Cats would not have offered Josh Allen. We now have the benefit of hindsight. Allen is very likely a first round pick and I could make a strong case that he's the best defensive player for the University of Kentucky's football program in my lifetime. Riley has 13 career tackles and one career sack.
— If Damien Harris had picked Kentucky in the Class of 2015, Kentucky probably only takes one running back in the 2016 class. Granted, Kentucky would probably be pretty good with Harris in the backfield right now. But who was Kentucky's second running back in the 2016 class? Benny Snell.
— Kentucky's most active defensive lineman this season has been Calvin Taylor. He was unsigned on National Signing Day and ended up with UK well over a month after that date. He was overjoyed when he committed to Kentucky and I remember this vividly. It was his first major opportunity and it almost didn't come.
— Kentucky's offensive line interior has been one of the strengths of the team. Drake Jackson was a homegrown talent who was never going to go anywhere else. I'm not saying a coach or recruiter doesn't get credit for him but I know this for certain. Bunchy Stallings had two other Power Five offers (Colorado, Mississippi State). Logan Stenberg committed to Kentucky when his other offer was from UAB.
— Boogie Watson may be Kentucky's next great linebacker. He has graded out higher than Denzil Ware did last season. He has played at a very high level this year. Watson was a two-star prospect who had a Power Five offer from Boston College and smaller offers.
— Derrick Baity has developed into one of the top cornerbacks in the Southeastern Conference. While he and Chris Westry were three-star prospects (Westry committed to Auburn before signing with Kentucky), the only reason Kentucky ended up with those players is because Montrell Custis and Jeremiah Dinson decommitted and ended up with other SEC programs. Custis is out for the 2018 season at Ole Miss because of an ACL injury suffered against Alabama this year. He has 33 career tackles and no interceptions. Dinson, who rose on recruiting boards late, is Auburn's starting nickel and has had a nice college career.
Kentucky also lost commitments from four-star prospects Andrew and David Dowell of Lakewood (Ohio) St. Edward in that 2015 class. This is Andrew's last year of eligibility and he would probably not be starting for UK right now. David would probably have been in line to start for Kentucky next year based on how his career has gone but I think it's fair to say that while UK has some depth questions they have to answer in recruiting, they have a very nice safety nucleus lined up for next year mitigating the one year of starting they would have had from David.
— Elijah Sindelar is not starting at quarterback for Purdue. Jarren Williams is starting very low on Miami's depth chart. Mac Jones' playing time forecast at Alabama is unenviable. While we don't know how those quarterbacks might have fared at Kentucky, we do know that with a pair of junior college transfers (Stephen Johnson and Terry Wilson), both late additions, Kentucky is 11-9 in the SEC over the last three seasons in what has been the best two-plus year run for the Wildcats in conference play that I can remember.
There are certainly some misses that have turned out to sting. Jedrick Wills going to Alabama will prove to be a miss that makes you wonder "what if" and there are others.
Why do I point all of this out?
Because as I said in a post not long ago, my thinking has changed. I will never be the kind of person who says "stars don't matter" because I think they speak to raw talent and ability "on the whole." If you stockpile a bunch of top 20 classes then it becomes much easier to succeed if you have the right combination of quarterback competence, avoiding significant injuries, staff continuity, commitment to a system, a strong strength and conditioning program, and a positive locker room culture with a developed leadership core.
While Kentucky's recruiting rankings have not matched that which the program achieved in the Class of 2014, that says more about the Class of 2014 than anything else.
However, the Class of 2014 is not the only outlier that should be discarded as a "standard". On the other end of the spectrum, Kentucky's recruiting classes from the dawn of the Rivals.com era through 2012 should be discarded as a "standard" for what is reasonably expected at Kentucky. The only reason that was "normal" is because Kentucky was in a vicious cycle that included a lethal concoction of low expectations, bad culture, frequent staff turnover, system changes, poor facilities and the other real difficulties of competing in the SEC.
So the poles, the "extremes" if you will, were: 1) The way Kentucky recruited before Stoops (even though this actually was "normal," I'm saying it shouldn't have been normal; it was Group of Five level recruiting at an SEC school), 2) The Class of 2014.
Here are Kentucky's recruiting class ranks since the Class of 2014:
2015: 35th
2016: 28th
2017: 26th
2018: 30th
2019: 33rd
Here are Kentucky's recruiting class ranks by star average since the Class of 2014:
2015: 2.95
2016: 3.0
2017: 3.04
2018: 3.08
2019: 2.94
For the sake of comparison, here are comparable class rankings in each of those years:
2015
32-40: Louisville, West Virginia, TCU, NC State, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Texas Tech.
2016
25-34: Oregon, South Carolina, Cal, Pitt, Arkansas, Duke, Arizona State, Utah, Mississippi State.
2017
23-32: Washington, Arkansas, Utah, Mississippi State, Virginia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, Texas, Colorado.
2018
26-35: Michigan State, Ole Miss, TCU, Maryland, Louisville, Baylor, West Virginia, NC State, Oklahoma State.
If you go by the rankings, Kentucky has basically been the recruiting doppelganger of Wisconsin, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, Utah, TCU and NC State since the Class of 2014.
Before I do that, I'll lay the groundwork by pointing out some ironies that aren't just fun mental exercises. These historical moments should be lessons every time a recruit commits elsewhere, every time the staff takes someone we're not as familiar with, etc.
— If Tyrone Riley had not flipped from Kentucky to NC State, there is a real chance the Cats would not have offered Josh Allen. We now have the benefit of hindsight. Allen is very likely a first round pick and I could make a strong case that he's the best defensive player for the University of Kentucky's football program in my lifetime. Riley has 13 career tackles and one career sack.
— If Damien Harris had picked Kentucky in the Class of 2015, Kentucky probably only takes one running back in the 2016 class. Granted, Kentucky would probably be pretty good with Harris in the backfield right now. But who was Kentucky's second running back in the 2016 class? Benny Snell.
— Kentucky's most active defensive lineman this season has been Calvin Taylor. He was unsigned on National Signing Day and ended up with UK well over a month after that date. He was overjoyed when he committed to Kentucky and I remember this vividly. It was his first major opportunity and it almost didn't come.
— Kentucky's offensive line interior has been one of the strengths of the team. Drake Jackson was a homegrown talent who was never going to go anywhere else. I'm not saying a coach or recruiter doesn't get credit for him but I know this for certain. Bunchy Stallings had two other Power Five offers (Colorado, Mississippi State). Logan Stenberg committed to Kentucky when his other offer was from UAB.
— Boogie Watson may be Kentucky's next great linebacker. He has graded out higher than Denzil Ware did last season. He has played at a very high level this year. Watson was a two-star prospect who had a Power Five offer from Boston College and smaller offers.
— Derrick Baity has developed into one of the top cornerbacks in the Southeastern Conference. While he and Chris Westry were three-star prospects (Westry committed to Auburn before signing with Kentucky), the only reason Kentucky ended up with those players is because Montrell Custis and Jeremiah Dinson decommitted and ended up with other SEC programs. Custis is out for the 2018 season at Ole Miss because of an ACL injury suffered against Alabama this year. He has 33 career tackles and no interceptions. Dinson, who rose on recruiting boards late, is Auburn's starting nickel and has had a nice college career.
Kentucky also lost commitments from four-star prospects Andrew and David Dowell of Lakewood (Ohio) St. Edward in that 2015 class. This is Andrew's last year of eligibility and he would probably not be starting for UK right now. David would probably have been in line to start for Kentucky next year based on how his career has gone but I think it's fair to say that while UK has some depth questions they have to answer in recruiting, they have a very nice safety nucleus lined up for next year mitigating the one year of starting they would have had from David.
— Elijah Sindelar is not starting at quarterback for Purdue. Jarren Williams is starting very low on Miami's depth chart. Mac Jones' playing time forecast at Alabama is unenviable. While we don't know how those quarterbacks might have fared at Kentucky, we do know that with a pair of junior college transfers (Stephen Johnson and Terry Wilson), both late additions, Kentucky is 11-9 in the SEC over the last three seasons in what has been the best two-plus year run for the Wildcats in conference play that I can remember.
There are certainly some misses that have turned out to sting. Jedrick Wills going to Alabama will prove to be a miss that makes you wonder "what if" and there are others.
Why do I point all of this out?
Because as I said in a post not long ago, my thinking has changed. I will never be the kind of person who says "stars don't matter" because I think they speak to raw talent and ability "on the whole." If you stockpile a bunch of top 20 classes then it becomes much easier to succeed if you have the right combination of quarterback competence, avoiding significant injuries, staff continuity, commitment to a system, a strong strength and conditioning program, and a positive locker room culture with a developed leadership core.
While Kentucky's recruiting rankings have not matched that which the program achieved in the Class of 2014, that says more about the Class of 2014 than anything else.
However, the Class of 2014 is not the only outlier that should be discarded as a "standard". On the other end of the spectrum, Kentucky's recruiting classes from the dawn of the Rivals.com era through 2012 should be discarded as a "standard" for what is reasonably expected at Kentucky. The only reason that was "normal" is because Kentucky was in a vicious cycle that included a lethal concoction of low expectations, bad culture, frequent staff turnover, system changes, poor facilities and the other real difficulties of competing in the SEC.
So the poles, the "extremes" if you will, were: 1) The way Kentucky recruited before Stoops (even though this actually was "normal," I'm saying it shouldn't have been normal; it was Group of Five level recruiting at an SEC school), 2) The Class of 2014.
Here are Kentucky's recruiting class ranks since the Class of 2014:
2015: 35th
2016: 28th
2017: 26th
2018: 30th
2019: 33rd
Here are Kentucky's recruiting class ranks by star average since the Class of 2014:
2015: 2.95
2016: 3.0
2017: 3.04
2018: 3.08
2019: 2.94
For the sake of comparison, here are comparable class rankings in each of those years:
2015
32-40: Louisville, West Virginia, TCU, NC State, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Texas Tech.
2016
25-34: Oregon, South Carolina, Cal, Pitt, Arkansas, Duke, Arizona State, Utah, Mississippi State.
2017
23-32: Washington, Arkansas, Utah, Mississippi State, Virginia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, Texas, Colorado.
2018
26-35: Michigan State, Ole Miss, TCU, Maryland, Louisville, Baylor, West Virginia, NC State, Oklahoma State.
If you go by the rankings, Kentucky has basically been the recruiting doppelganger of Wisconsin, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, Utah, TCU and NC State since the Class of 2014.
