Some Promising Team Stats

[Aike]

Halfway through the season (it is a 40 game season, right?), we are showing some trends of being a very Cal-like team, despite appearances to the contrary.

A lot of people were worried about rebounding with this team, and that was probably reasonable. Twenty games into the season, we rank 20th in the country in rebounding percentage. Solid.

Our block percentage is even better, where we rank 9th.

A stat I like to watch where we typically do well is defensive assist/turnover ratio. I love this stat because it tells me that we are taking teams out of their stuff and forcing them to play one on one.

We rank 5th nationally in opponents A/TO ratio.

We aren't the statistical juggernaut we were last year, but we are certainly more than respectable in a few important areas.

Our defensive three point percentage ranks 64th. Not amazing but at least in the ball park of where it needs to be.

Our own three point shooting is up close to 33% after an abysmal start.

More and more, we are looking like a team capable of making a run.

 

[dtzanetos]

Very interesting. Thanks for posting. Those #'s confirm the improvement that everyone seems to have seen over the past several games!

 

[StubbornPenny]

Good stats. With the field like it is this year, I'm 100% convinced we have a punchers chance at stealing a title.

 

[CatEye2010]

And our top-7 man rotation is now at 68% FTs. And that's with Lee and IB's poor stats bringing it down; And IB is showing signs of improvement lately.

 

[BoulderCat]

I like stats and box scores. They can tell us a lot. We do have some good one's as you noted. Some of the bigs not rebounding well enough has been countered by having 2 excellent rebounding guards, Murray and Briscoe. And our shooting has improved. 33% from 3 is the fulcrum point. Above that, and it's fair to say we're at least decent at it. We certainly look to be trending in the right direction. We've got a game Saturday which is going to tell us a lot about where we are here 2/3's of the way through the regular season.

 

[UKrazycat2]

Adding Willis, Briscoe, and Skal to Ulis and Murray as scoring threats has changed the expectations for this team greatly. Briscoe's offence and defense last night wasn't anything short of awesome. I was at the game and he was getting standing O's for his freethrows. LOL. The crowd really showed their appreciation for the efforts of Skal/Briscoe/Willis/ Ulis, and Murray.

Poy and Lee didn't fair so well, but they will in other games. Murray even played better defense than I've seen from him so far. I know it was Missouri but I was impressed by the whole teams intensity. Play with that kind of fire every game and we will be a tough out for any team.

 

[UKnCincy]

Halfway through the season (it is a 40 game season, right?), we are showing some trends of being a very Cal-like team, despite appearances to the contrary.

A lot of people were worried about rebounding with this team, and that was probably reasonable. Twenty games into the season, we rank 20th in the country in rebounding percentage. Solid.

Our block percentage is even better, where we rank 9th.

A stat I like to watch where we typically do well is defensive assist/turnover ratio. I love this stat because it tells me that we are taking teams out of their stuff and forcing them to play one on one.

We rank 5th nationally in opponents A/TO ratio.

We aren't the statistical juggernaut we were last year, but we are certainly more than respectable in a few important areas.

Our defensive three point percentage ranks 64th. Not amazing but at least in the ball park of where it needs to be.

Our own three point shooting is up close to 33% after an abysmal start.

More and more, we are looking like a team capable of making a run.

EDIT: disregard my comments about offensive rebounding per Aike's response to this post.

The two areas I'm keeping an eye on are offensive rebounding percentage and FT rate. Those two are the biggest departures I see with this team versus previous Cal teams.

While our defensive rebounding has actually been pretty good, our offensive rebounding is lower than some of our previous teams. The danger there is that if you are having an off night on your jumpshots, then your scoring takes a major hit.

This team also doesn't drive to the basket and draw fouls nearly as much. That has almost been a hallmark of Cal's teams here. The risk here, similar to with offensive rebounding, is how do you generate points on nights where the jumpshots aren't falling? Not to mention the fact that you lose the efficiency benefits associated with getting opposing teams' players into foul trouble.

We'll see if those become an issue or not. This team is really a new look for Cal, so there's not a good way to forecast out those situations from the past teams. Credit to Cal though for his ability to evolve with each team. He doesn't get nearly enough credit for the agility of his coaching.

 

[Aike]

The two areas I'm keeping an eye on are offensive rebounding percentage and FT rate. Those two are the biggest departures I see with this team versus previous Cal teams.

While our defensive rebounding has actually been pretty good, our offensive rebounding is lower than some of our previous teams. The danger there is that if you are having an off night on your jumpshots, then your scoring takes a major hit.

This team also doesn't drive to the basket and draw fouls nearly as much. That has almost been a hallmark of Cal's teams here. The risk here, similar to with offensive rebounding, is how do you generate points on nights where the jumpshots aren't falling? Not to mention the fact that you lose the efficiency benefits associated with getting opposing teams' players into foul trouble.

We'll see if those become an issue or not. This team is really a new look for Cal, so there's not a good way to forecast out those situations from the past teams. Credit to Cal though for his ability to evolve with each team. He doesn't get nearly enough credit for the agility of his coaching.

Our offensive rebounding % actually is 7th best in the country, so I'm not sure it's that big a worry.

I'm interested to see if Briscoe has turned a corner on his free throw shooting. I think he's more likely to seek contact if he's confident he'll convert free throws.

 

[Blueaz]

Halfway through the season (it is a 40 game season, right?), we are showing some trends of being a very Cal-like team, despite appearances to the contrary.

A lot of people were worried about rebounding with this team, and that was probably reasonable. Twenty games into the season, we rank 20th in the country in rebounding percentage. Solid.

Our block percentage is even better, where we rank 9th.

A stat I like to watch where we typically do well is defensive assist/turnover ratio. I love this stat because it tells me that we are taking teams out of their stuff and forcing them to play one on one.

We rank 5th nationally in opponents A/TO ratio.

We aren't the statistical juggernaut we were last year, but we are certainly more than respectable in a few important areas.

Our defensive three point percentage ranks 64th. Not amazing but at least in the ball park of where it needs to be.

Our own three point shooting is up close to 33% after an abysmal start.

More and more, we are looking like a team capable of making a run.

Numbers don't lie..
but, if (when we lose again) before the NCAAT...the sky will be falling and Cal. should be playing __________ more and so on and so on...
Bitch and bitch some more, no time for facts, stats or trends...It's is what they do.

 

[BBUK]

I like stats and box scores. They can tell us a lot. We do have some good one's as you noted. Some of the bigs not rebounding well enough has been countered by having 2 excellent rebounding guards, Murray and Briscoe. And our shooting has improved. 33% from 3 is the fulcrum point. Above that, and it's fair to say we're at least decent at it. We certainly look to be trending in the right direction. We've got a game Saturday which is going to tell us a lot about where we are here 2/3's of the way through the regular season.

Put Ulis in that rebounding guard category too.

 

[BostonCat2001]

team is starting to get it. there will be steps that go backwards. these kids arent machines.

but the 3s are falling. the right guys are getting to the line. turnovers are way down. guys are starting to fight for rebounds. those 4 things alone will do wonders

 

[BBUK]

team is starting to get it. there will be steps that go backwards. these kids arent machines.

but the 3s are falling. the right guys are getting to the line. turnovers are way down. guys are starting to fight for rebounds. those 4 things alone will do wonders

if they'd just learn to run the picket fence they'd be awesome...

 

[BBUK]

last 3 games UK is 35% from 3 and I think 76% from the line. Holding opponents to something like 27% from 3.

That's a good day.

 

[UKnCincy]

Our offensive rebounding % actually is 7th best in the country, so I'm not sure it's that big a worry.

I'm interested to see if Briscoe has turned a corner on his free throw shooting. I think he's more likely to seek contact if he's confident he'll convert free throws.

I stand corrected on the offensive rebounding. I should've checked the latest numbers before posting. Shows how perception doesn't always match reality, at least for me. Appreciate you sharing the stats.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Yeah offensive rebounding is good..........tho one has to consider if Lee gets less time whether that number will go down. Lee is a beast on the offensive boards.......everyone else not so much.

The two biggest departures from previous seasons both have to do with free throw rate. We aren't drawing fouls like we normally do and the flipside to that is we are fouling at a much higher rate than previous seasons.

FTR last season ranked 31st.......this season 130th. Similarly defensively we ranked 64th last season. This season we rank 194th. Some of that is offset by the better defensive rebounding numbers tho.

Another thing on defense....we aren't blocking as many shots as we did in previous years. This hurts twofold........1) Opponents 2pt FG% is up and 2) Going for blocks usually puts the defender in poor rebounding position. That's why our defensive rebounding under Cal has never been great. It's not a problem when your blocking shots but now we aren't doing that as much as we did in previous years. Tho as mentioned above our rebounding numbers are good so maybe it'll be ok

 

[KA4Prez]

We rank 28th in adjusted defense and 29th in adjusted defense.

 

[AnarchoNeoLuddite]

Dosent show on the court the way folks want but I bet APs plus/ minus is top 2 on the team

 

[AnarchoNeoLuddite]

Dosent show on the court the way folks want but I bet APs plus/ minus is top 2 on the team

 

[BBUK]

State it again....

 

[Aike]

Yeah offensive rebounding is good..........tho one has to consider if Lee gets less time whether that number will go down. Lee is a beast on the offensive boards.......everyone else not so much.

The two biggest departures from previous seasons both have to do with free throw rate. We aren't drawing fouls like we normally do and the flipside to that is we are fouling at a much higher rate than previous seasons.

FTR last season ranked 31st.......this season 130th. Similarly defensively we ranked 64th last season. This season we rank 194th. Some of that is offset by the better defensive rebounding numbers tho.

Another thing on defense....we aren't blocking as many shots as we did in previous years. This hurts twofold........1) Opponents 2pt FG% is up and 2) Going for blocks usually puts the defender in poor rebounding position. That's why our defensive rebounding under Cal has never been great. It's not a problem when your blocking shots but now we aren't doing that as much as we did in previous years. Tho as mentioned above our rebounding numbers are good so maybe it'll be ok

We are still 9th in the country in block percentage, although that percentage isn't as high as it has been the other years under Cal. Still a big part of what we do.

Free throws could be an issue, but hopefully that's improving. In my opinion, the biggest issue there is that we haven't had a dependable post presence who we wanted to be drawing fouls.

Lee can't shoot them. Skal has been weak with the ball.

With Willis getting more minutes as a stretch 4, Poy is operating in the post with more space. Should be able to get better angles and draw more fouls.

Plus, Briscoe can draw fouls like crazy, but up until last night that's been a poor strategy.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Interesting stats. I remember early in the year when Kansas was shooting nearly 50 percent from 3 and Kentucky was at about 25 percent, I predicted both teams would end up between 35-38 percent. Still a ways to go, but Kentucky is up to 33 percent and Kansas is down to 42 percent. And -- this was fascinating to me -- in the last four games, Kansas has shot under 30 percent from 3 three times, and has a combined percentage of 30.1 in those games.

Yep. Regression to the Mean.

This was always going to happen.