So Vandy is twice as likely to win the SEC as UK?

[ukfan79]

And we are third? I like to look at these computer projections headed into conference play to see how off they end up being.

I do know Vandy is better than their 7-4 record would suggest, but I still think anyone with a brain would say the SEC is Kentucky's to lose.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/projections/standings/

 

[Smashcat]

That's all speculation. Also, LSU is in a far better position now with a new lineup to finish in the top four of the SEC imo.

 

[ukfan79]

That's all speculation. Also, LSU is in a far better position now with a new lineup to finish in the top four of the SEC imo.

Right. I'm just curious where the 'win conference' likelihood comes from. This projections has us at 13-5 and Vandy at 14-4. I'm not saying that couldn't happen. I just wonder how finishing 1 game up equates to over 2 times the likelihood of winning the conference.

I agree on LSU. Our game against them next week will be HUGE for them.

 

[Bmenk]

And we are third? I like to look at these computer projections headed into conference play to see how off they end up being.

I do know Vandy is better than their 7-4 record would suggest, but I still think anyone with a brain would say the SEC is Kentucky's to lose.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/projections/standings/

Go check out the ACC and see who's on top. LOL

 

[ukfan79]

Go check out the ACC and see who's on top. LOL

Oh I did. And there's no way that pans out. I am just curious to those 'in the know' as to what these computer projections are looking at. It is something very interesting to print off then keep and see how it actually ends up. I'm guessing these projections look very different in 2 weeks once we are 3-4 games into conference play for most teams.

 

[KMKAT]

I hope all the announcers and the SEC Network continue to push this. All it does is motivate our guys and gives Cal ammunition to work with.

 

[rdgtr]

And we are third? I like to look at these computer projections headed into conference play to see how off they end up being.

I do know Vandy is better than their 7-4 record would suggest, but I still think anyone with a brain would say the SEC is Kentucky's to lose.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/projections/standings/

Interesting find. So, Vanderbilt (35%) and Texas A&M (21.8%) are the favorites to win the SEC followed by Kentucky (16.1%), Florida (15.7%), and South Carolina (8.4%). To me, that just says that the SEC race is going to be wild and wide-open this year. Like another poster said, there will probably be other wild cards (i.e, LSU) out there that could surprise in the end.

Another thing that I find mildly amusing is the '%chance of a team going undefeated'. From the SEC, it gave South Carolina (11-0) a 0.1% chance as of today. Lol! This site also gave Michigan St (13-0) about a 3.2% chance. Those don't seem like very good odds to me to bet at vegas, lol!

 

[docholiday51]

This season in college basketball you can wad up all the computer rankings, number crunch rankings and expert prognostications(throw in Lunardi's projected seedings too) and make a nice bonfire out of them None of them will look anything like what the college basketball landscape will be on March 1

 

[rdgtr]

Right. I'm just curious where the 'win conference' likelihood comes from. This projections has us at 13-5 and Vandy at 14-4. I'm not saying that couldn't happen. I just wonder how finishing 1 game up equates to over 2 times the likelihood of winning the conference.

I agree on LSU. Our game against them next week will be HUGE for them.

According to this projection, UK and Florida are just as likely to finish at 12-6 in the SEC as well as the higher end of 13-5; although, both finishes are possible. Also, A&M is projected to finish 13-5 behind 14-4 Vandy. As a Florida fan, I would gladly take a 12-6 SEC finish. The gators have been wildly inconsistent on offense this season.

If there is any consolation to UK fans, at least the wildcats (19.1%) have the 2nd best chance of winning the SEC tournament this year. It would be the rematch of the 2012 SEC tourny when Vandy (32.3%) defeated UK - Stallings went crazy afterwards, lol.

 

[ukfan79]

Interesting find. So, Vanderbilt (35%) and Texas A&M (21.8%) are the favorites to win the SEC followed by Kentucky (16.1%), Florida (15.7%), and South Carolina (8.4%). To me, that just says that the SEC race is going to be wild and wide-open this year. Like another poster said, there will probably be other wild cards (i.e, LSU) out there that could surprise in the end.

Another thing that I find mildly amusing is the '%chance of a team going undefeated'. From the SEC, it gave South Carolina (11-0) a 0.1% chance as of today. Lol! This site also gave Michigan St (13-0) about a 3.2% chance. Those don't seem like very good odds to me to bet at vegas, lol!

I think that is probably going undefeated overall. You can see that all teams are at 0% except for the 5 teams that are still without a loss.

 

[rdgtr]

I think that is probably going undefeated overall. You can see that all teams are at 0% except for the 5 teams that are still without a loss.

Yep. That's what I meant - not just in the conference.

 

[Aike]

Without looking, I'm going to assume this has to do with how the schedule breaks down. It's impossible to even out the schedule with so many teams.

I pegged us with 3-4 conference losses before the season. I expected Skal to be better, but I'm going to stick with 14-4. I think we will want to win the conference, and will play with the urgency necessary.

 

[Cats192]

Go check out the ACC and see who's on top. LOL

Was coming to post this.

Louisville winning the ACC tells you all you need to know

 

[UKWildcats#8]

I can easily see UK losing 5 SEC Road games and finishing 13-5. With no Skal...this team is just nothing special and never will be IMO. Now if Skal ever wakes up, that and my expectations change.

 

[ukfan79]

Here's my projections just with my own eye test from seeing all of the teams and then actually going through the schedule game by game:

1. Kentucky 14-4
2. Vanderbilt 13-5
3. Texas A&M 12-6
South Carolina 12-6
5. Florida 11-7
Ole Miss 11-7
7. LSU 10-8
8. Georgia 9-9
9. Arkansas 8-10
Alabama 8-10
11. Auburn 6-12
12. Mississippi State 5-13
13. Tennessee 4-14
14. Missouri 3-15

 

[ukfan79]

I can easily see UK losing 5 SEC Road games and finishing 13-5. With no Skal...this team is just nothing special and never will be IMO. Now if Skal ever wakes up, that and my expectations change.

We could but I think we go at least 5-4 on the SEC road. The SEC still has some bad teams and we play some of them on the road. I see 4 wins as very likely. Those are at Alabama, at Auburn, at Arkansas & at Tennessee. Two games I see as probable wins, but very tough. Those are at South Carolina & at Florida. 3 games I am counting on right now as almost certain road losses. Those are at LSU, at Texas A&M and at Vandy.

The bad news (or good news depending on how you look at it) is that our road schedule is very much back loaded with our last 4 road games being at South Carolina, Florida, Vandy, and Texas A&M. Those are all 4 tourney teams. Add to that a road trip to Lawrence and that is 5 of our last 6 games on the road. This team will certainly be battle tested come March and that is a good thing. We just have to win at least half of those road battles.

 

[Aike]

I think we are more likely to win a game or two that people are counting as losses, and drop at least one surprise game.

 

[bucsrule8872]

LSU is much better than they have looked. They added a post presence in Victor and now have their best shooter (Hornsby) back from injury. They will finish in the top five, for sure. Forget the records, they have been short two guys almost all season so far.

Vandy is solid and could win the conference. I think they have had to deal with injuries, which has hindered them.

A&M will be a conference contender as well. The SEC is no slouch. They might be on par with the ACC this year.

 

[Blueisbest]

As is most seasons, the road to the SEC regular season title goes through Lexington. It's been that way for more than 60 years and it will continue for many, many more.

 

[ukfan79]

LSU is much better than they have looked. They added a post presence in Victor and now have their best shooter (Hornsby) back from injury. They will finish in the top five, for sure. Forget the records, they have been short two guys almost all season so far.

Vandy is solid and could win the conference. I think they have had to deal with injuries, which has hindered them.

A&M will be a conference contender as well. The SEC is no slouch. They might be on par with the ACC this year.

If LSU didn't have Johnny Jones coaching them then I would have them at about 13-5. But he's worth an extra 3 losses to crap teams just by himself. They'll still get up for UK and most likely beat us next week, but don't expect much more than 10-8 from them.

As for how good the conference is, I do believe its much better, but the bottom teams still are pretty damn bad.

 

[docholiday51]

I think we are more likely to win a game or two that people are counting as losses, and drop at least one surprise game.

Agree with this, I think there will be more head scratching losses in the SEC than usual this year (not just in the case of UK) LSU has probably more talent than anyone, but they don't play defense, just try to outscore you(with Simmons they can) USC may be a factor this season.We could see a bunch of teams with 5 losses.(if not for Jones LSU would be head and shoulders above anyone else.

 

[ukfan79]

Agree with this, I think there will be more head scratching losses in the SEC than usual this year (not just in the case of UK) LSU has probably more talent than anyone, but they don't play defense, just try to outscore you(with Simmons they can) USC may be a factor this season.We could see a bunch of teams with 5 losses.(if not for Jones LSU would be head and shoulders above anyone else.

LSU would not be head and shoulders above everyone else. They would be right there with us and Vandy if they had a better coach though.

 

[SilentsAreGolden]

There are obviously far too many of these systems now. Anyone or any system that thinks Vandy is that much of a favorite to win the conference deserves to be ignored. They have done nothing even remotely as impressive as beating Duke and UL.

 

[ukfan79]

There are obviously far too many of these systems now. Anyone or any system that thinks Vandy is that much of a favorite to win the conference deserves to be ignored. They have done nothing even remotely as impressive as beating Duke and UL.

I agree. I just don't understand the math behind it. It basically says Vandy is going 14-4 with aTm, UK, and Florida going 13-5 (if you round up) yet gives them that much of a chance to win the league. Even with their numbers I would think that should be something more like 26-23-20-20 among those 4 teams with the other 11 divided out among the other 10 teams (which it currently is).

 

[CharlieT71059]

my pick UK at 15-3

 

[ukfan79]

my pick UK at 15-3

I might be on board with this IF we come out of LSU with a win then don't falter in Tuscaloosa (which I don't think we will).

If we beat LSU, I think we are 18-2 headed into that Kansas game and back in the Top 5-7 or so in the polls.

Still not sure what to expect in Lawrence. Could be a beatdown or we could hit 10 threes and have a chance. I think it would take something like a 10-20 type outing from behind the arc to get a win there.

 

[ukdesi]

I use that website a lot for looking up stats, although I never pay attention to their actual picks or projections. I think it is based on their power rankings, which appear to be constantly in a developmental stage.

Vegas has UK as 12-1 odds to win it all, while Vandy is listed as 50-1, so I'd guess Vegas would have UK as favorite to win the SEC.