Shohei Ohtani: How Valuable Is He?

[WayneDougan]

Despite being buried with Mike Trout on the perennially under .500 Los Angeles Angels, it's pretty cool what Shohei Ohtani is doing. For you stat guys, his WAR at midseason is currently 4.3 which puts him tied for third. Last year he finished with a 9 which led the league. The dude has a cannon on the mound and hits bombs, so you've got an exciting two-way player where there really hasn't been one like this since the early days of Babe Ruth.

So here's the philosophical discussion point: let's say Ohtani finishes with a hitting WAR of 3.5 and a pitching WAR of 5.5, for a grand total of 9 again. Is that more valuable than if Sandy Alcantara or Max Fried comes in with a pitching only WAR Of 8? Or Goldschmidt comes in with a hitting/fielding only WAR of 7.5? Obviously a 9 WAR is better, but Shohei is taking the place of two distinct spots in the lineup - a pitcher spot and a batter spot. This is an important distinction. So in Fried's case, the DH on the Braves (Ozuna) could end up with a WAR of 3 and the combined WAR of those two players is now 11. With Ohtani, having him play both pitcher and batter frees up a roster spot, but not a spot in the lineup. So the "extra" value is basically the value of the last man on the Angels' roster.

Regardless, one thing's for sure, from a salary perspective Ohtani should be the highest paid player in the league, because frankly you should be paying for wins and he provides the most wins.

 

[kybloo92]

Theoretically could be the MVP every year with his production as a pitcher and a hitter. Saw on MLB network this afternoon that he is 5-0 with a 0.27 ERA in his last 5 starts. What the Reds should have done with Hunter Greene who the FO sold Hunter on the idea as a 2-way player when they drafted him but lacked the gumption to follow through as they do best.

 

[Kooky Kats]

Most valuable part of that guy is he opens up a roster spot on the 25-man. Plus he’s awesome at both positions.

 

[Dore95]

Beyond his production, he’s so much fun to watch. I went to the Marlins/Angels game last night and he pitched 7 innings and was basically unhittable. Also drove in two runs.

 

[kywildcatsfannumber1]

It's crazy how great Trout & Ohtani are, arguably the best 2 players in the game and the team is garbage. The Angels with Trout have been to the postseason once in his entire career. Splurged on Anthony Rendon, Pujols, Hamilton, Syndergaard and Justin Upton since 2011. Wrote some bad checks. Something is up in that organization. Now looking for their 3rd manager after Scoscia stepping down in 2018.

 

[CatsFanGG24]

I think he has to be above average in both spots to deserve MVP - and the last year and a half he’s been producing to back it up.

Not sure .245, 40 HRs and a 4.00 era deserves mvp, even though it’s unheard of in today’s game…but he’s outperforming from the pitching side so I think he’s rightfully in the discussion.

Hes basically Alek Manoah + Mookie Betts right now - which is absurd.

 

[kywildcatsfannumber1]

I think he has to be above average in both spots to deserve MVP - and the last year and a half he’s been producing to back it up.

Not sure .245, 40 HRs and a 4.00 era deserves mvp, even though it’s unheard of in today’s game…but he’s outperforming from the pitching side so I think he’s rightfully in the discussion.

Hes basically Alek Manoah + Mookie Betts right now - which is absurd.

Maybe I'm missing something but where are you getting the 4.00 ERA number from? 3.31 in 2018, TJ Surgery after 2 starts in 2019, 2020 DH only as the arm wasn't fully healed in the crazy 2020 season, 3.18 in 2021 and a 2.44 ERA this season. He is a transcendent player and it's absolutely amazing to watch someone like him these days in 2022. Hope more players like him come along.

In addition to his success as a starting pitcher, his offense is just gravy. A career .263 hitter and over 100 home runs in roughly 4 full seasons combined, 26 stolen bases in 2021. He is an MVP in the truest since of the term. No, he won't win it every year though if I had the chance to select any player in MLB to start a team, picking him 1st each and every time with his value as a pitcher/hitter.

 

[krazykats]

He is the modern day Babe Ruth.

 

[JoeSwag]

It's crazy how great Trout & Ohtani are, arguably the best 2 players in the game and the team is garbage. The Angels with Trout have been to the postseason once in his entire career. Splurged on Anthony Rendon, Pujols, Hamilton, Syndergaard and Justin Upton since 2011. Wrote some bad checks. Something is up in that organization. Now looking for their 3rd manager after Scoscia stepping down in 2018.

Pitching has been the Angels problem for over a decade.

They had the best record in baseball in 2014 and got swept by the Royals.

No idea WTH happened to Josh Hamilton as soon as he got to Anaheim. Guy had just hit 44 HRs and then fell off the map and was never worth a crap.

It’s disappointing especially with likable stars like Trout and Ohtani. How the hell can you not make the playoffs more often? We’re seeing the same teams consistently make the playoffs. No idea how a team who spends money can’t make the postseason.

 

[WayneDougan]

offense is just gravy.

This is what I struggle with. If he played in the national league and it was 2021 or before, then his hitting would be gravy. But now, he’s playing two distinct positions that could be filled by two separate people. So you need to add those two spots together to do a comparison.

Here's an example from Houston:
- SP: Verlander: WAR of 2.5
- DH: Alvarez: WAR or 4.1
- Total: 6.6

Now the Angels:
- SP: Ohtani: WAR of 2.8
- DH: Ohtani: WAR of 1.5
- Total: 4.3

I think Alvarez is actually the more valuable player looking at it this way because for Houston to match Ohtani's production, they need to find a pitcher with a 0.2 WAR thus far in the season, whereas the only additional WAR Ohtani gets you is the extra roster spot. That shouldn't be downplayed, but I don't know what the justifiable value of that extra spot is.

Again, all that said, I think salary should be more or less tied to overall WAR, which would make Ohtani the highest paid player in the game.

 

[CatsFanGG24]

Maybe I'm missing something but where are you getting the 4.00 ERA number from? 3.31 in 2018, TJ Surgery after 2 starts in 2019, 2020 DH only as the arm wasn't fully healed in the crazy 2020 season, 3.18 in 2021 and a 2.44 ERA this season. He is a transcendent player and it's absolutely amazing to watch someone like him these days in 2022. Hope more players like him come along.

In addition to his success as a starting pitcher, his offense is just gravy. A career .263 hitter and over 100 home runs in roughly 4 full seasons combined, 26 stolen bases in 2021. He is an MVP in the truest since of the term. No, he won't win it every year though if I had the chance to select any player in MLB to start a team, picking him 1st each and every time with his value as a pitcher/hitter.

Yeah - you are missing something. The 4.00 era was just an example for people who say the offense or the pitching is just gravy. Just because he does both, doesn’t mean he should be MVP each year, as I have seen some people argue…

It is incredible that he is doing MVP stuff from both positions…but if he were to drop to a 4.00 era or if his offense “were just gravy” and he batted .215 with modest power #s to end the season, I don’t think that’s mvp lock worthy, for the very reasons OP mentioned to start with.

 

[CatsFanGG24]

I steer my young son towards Trout fandom and hype up Ohtani as well, so I’m a big fan. I just think he needs to continue to be elite from both positions to be MVP, some think his mere existence and rarity is MVP worthy annually.

HOF usually knocks DH only guys unless they were incredible. MVP voting usually knocks starting pitchers bc they go every 5 days…does DH + SP elevate him above normal position player, or does it still fall under? It’s a tough question and quality topic by @WayneDougan

 

[Col. Angus]

Best offensive/defensive two way pro since Jordan. Like this.

 

[kywildcatsfannumber1]

Yeah - you are missing something. The 4.00 era was just an example for people who say the offense or the pitching is just gravy. Just because he does both, doesn’t mean he should be MVP each year, as I have seen some people argue…

It is incredible that he is doing MVP stuff from both positions…but if he were to drop to a 4.00 era or if his offense “were just gravy” and he batted .215 with modest power #s to end the season, I don’t think that’s mvp lock worthy, for the very reasons OP mentioned to start with.

Yeah I don't deal with hypothetical situations that haven't even happened. I look at the stats before me. I know you're hung up on the 'gravy' statement but there is literally no other 2-way player like him on the planet which is a testament to how talented he is as a 2-way player. Sorry my post rubbed you the wrong way. Nothing 'modest' offensively about a guy who put up 46 home runs, 100 RBIs and not even 4 full years in MLB with 111 home runs & 300 RBIs...Obviously the voters opinions matter the most and he is the reigning AL MVP so I'm not going to undermine his accomplishments and take that away from him.

Don't think anyone here suggested a 4.00 ERA and a .215 batting average (.240 before) was MVP worthy and his numbers are certainly better than the numbers you throw out there so don't misconstrue the post with statements that weren't made. If his production were to be that poor, I would imagine Anaheim would tell him to either stick to pitching or hitting one. Hell, he'd probably go back to the outfield instead of a full-time DH if he gave up pitching.

 

[CatsFanGG24]

Yeah I don't deal with hypothetical situations that haven't even happened. I look at the stats before me. There is literally no other 2-way player like him on the planet. Sorry my post rubbed you the wrong way. Nothing 'modest' offensively about a guy who put up 46 home runs, 100 RBIs and not even 4 full years in MLB with 111 home runs & 300 RBIs...Obviously the voters opinion matters the most and the reigning AL MVP so I'm not going to undermine his accomplishments.

What are you even talking about?

In 2020, a 40+ game sample he hit .190 with 7 HR. In the 2nd half of 2021 he hit .229 with 13 HR. In 2019 he had 4 post break HRs.

He’s had a half of 3.5 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in his history.

Modest power in the 2nd half isn’t a hypothetical that hasn’t happened yet.

4.00 era hasn’t happened yet, but deal with a 1.20 whip for too long and you’d flirt with it…and the 4.00 example is where I think he’d firmly fall out of MVP consideration, or should. 3.50 or better with solid win output and his career avg offensive output will always have him in the conversation.


This thread isn’t about a debate on him being the best 2 way player around. That’s not in question. It’s about MVP voting and how to value Ohtani.

I think he rightfully won MVP last year and is rightfully in the convo this year. I don’t think he should be a default lock just bc he is a phenomenal 2 way player.

 

[kywildcatsfannumber1]

What are you even talking about?

In 2020, a 40+ game sample he hit .190 with 7 HR. In the 2nd half of 2021 he hit .229 with 13 HR. In 2019 he had 4 post break HRs.

He’s had a half of 3.5 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in his history.

This thread isn’t about a debate on him being the best 2 way player around. That’s not in question. It’s about MVP voting and how to value Ohtani.

I think he rightfully won MVP last year and is rightfully in the convo this year. I don’t think he should be a default lock just bc he is a phenomenal 2 way player.

What the hell are you even talking about? You want to point to a 2-month season in the covid year when he was recovering from TJ surgery to knock his overall accomplishments and god forbid he threw a few clunkers last years or has a slump offensively with MVP worthy numbers. Again, who said anyone being a 2-way player makes him an automatic lock for an MVP? Please tell me where I said any of that. It's his production on both sides that made him the MVP. I don't believe anyone has been calling for his teammate Michael Lorenzen to receive MVP votes because he starts, pitches out of the bullpen, hits home runs and plays in the outfield.

 

[CatsFanGG24]

What the hell are you even talking about? You want to point to a 2-month season in the covid year when he was recovering from TJ surgery to knock his overall accomplishments and god forbid he threw a few clunkers last years with excellent overall career numbers as a pitcher. Again, who said anyone being a 2-way player makes him a lock for an MVP? Please tell me where I said any of that. It's his production on both sides that made him the MVP. I don't believe anyone has been calling for his teammate Michael Lorenzen to receive MVP votes because he starts, pitches out of the bullpen, hits home runs and plays in the outfield.

Damn you’re high strung. I don’t think I ever said YOU said he should be a default lock bc he’s a two way guy. Plenty of people believe it though - just turn on MLB net.

But I do think when you say the offense is just gravy, it’s a comment that diminishes the importance of the actual output from that side of the game (no matter what that output may be) - and gives the benefit of the doubt bc he’s a 2 way guy.

You don’t need to defend Ohtani from me - I think he is excellent.

 

[kywildcatsfannumber1]

Damn you’re high strung. I don’t think I ever said YOU said he should be a default lock bc he’s a two way guy. Plenty of people believe it though - just turn on MLB net.

But I do think when you say the offense is just gravy, it’s a comment that diminishes the importance of the actual output from that side of the game (no matter what that output may be) - and gives the benefit of the doubt bc he’s a 2 way guy.

You don’t need to defend Ohtani from me - I think he is excellent.

Like I said, you are hung up on that 'gravy' statement and it was not intended to diminish MVP numbers offensively. I could have evaluated his MVP level production as a hitter and said his pitching was just gravy. Not intended to diminish the value of a 2-way player as you suggest and you've made a mountain out of a molehill with that comment. Sorry that word triggers you, I'll try to do better next time in explaining just how valuable of a player he is with his overall great numbers as a pitcher and a hitter. Even Babe Ruth won the AL MVP just once in his career. There's no way the voters are going to hand anyone the MVP every single year whether they are a hitter, pitcher or a 2-way player. Eventually people need to start asking why they haven't made the postseason with 2 of the best players in the game and other talented high-priced players taking the field in Anaheim each game.

 

[CatsFanGG24]

Like I said, you are hung up on that 'gravy' statement and it was not intended to diminish MVP numbers offensively. I could have evaluated his MVP level production as a hitter and said his pitching was just gravy. Not intended to diminish the value of a 2-way player as you suggest and you've made a mountain out of a molehill with that comment. Sorry that word triggers you, I'll try to do better next time in explaining just how valuable of a player he is with his overall great numbers as a pitcher and a hitter. Even Babe Ruth won the AL MVP just once in his career. There's no way the voters are going to hand anyone the MVP every single year whether they are a hitter, pitcher or a 2-way player. Eventually people need to start asking why they haven't made the postseason with 2 of the best players in the game and other talented high-priced players taking the field in Anaheim each game.

Believe me, I am not triggered. I’ve gone back through my posts in this thread to make sure I haven’t slighted Ohtani…I haven’t. The first post mentions a philosophical discussion based on hypotheticals…I carried that on, you didn’t like the 4.00 era thing.

And Ruth only won 1 MVP bc they didn’t allow repeat winners during that time. And credit to Ohtani, Ruth really wasn’t a similar 2 way player…Ruth basically had 2 distinct careers, first as pitcher and 2nd as a hitter. 1918-1919 he had some legit 2 way stats, but that’s about it.

 

[kywildcatsfannumber1]

Believe me, I am not triggered. I’ve gone back through my posts in this thread to make sure I haven’t slighted Ohtani…I haven’t. The first post mentions a philosophical discussion based on hypotheticals…I carried that on, you didn’t like the 4.00 era thing.

And Ruth only won 1 MVP bc they didn’t allow repeat winners during that time.

Honestly could have fooled me. Like I said, my evaluation of him was made based on overall career numbers instead of hypotheticals. The MVP limitation was dropped before Ruth's career ended. Went on to an All-Star game 2 more times, led the AL in home runs multiple seasons and another World Series before he retired. The Ruth comparison was only brought up by me because these 2 are about the only ones with legitimate success as a pitcher and hitter to emphasize the rarity to do both at a high level. What Shohei brings to the table on a nightly basis is unreal. Historical greatness in the game to do both at once that we have never seen before.

 

[_Mav_]

WAR? Good God, y’all. What is it good for? Absolutely nuthin’.

 

[rudd1]

WAR? Good God, y’all. What is it good for? Absolutely nuthin’.

-say it again.

 

[_Mav_]

WAR? Huh. What is it good for? Absolutely nuthin’. Listen to me.

 

[cole854]

Regardless, one thing's for sure, from a salary perspective Ohtani should be the highest paid player in the league, because frankly you should be paying for wins and he provides the most wins.

This statement is what the ultimate fault with WAR is....there is no way to factually prove he provides the most wins.

He is not the best pitcher or offensive player in the league....not even top 5 in either, however, his overall talents are without question, elite.

 

[Dore95]

The Angels go with a 6 man rotation, at least in part because of the perceived need to give Ohtani more rest between starts.

Similarly, they feel a need to play him as only a DH, and also are careful with him when he is on the base paths. They would treat him differently if he did not pitch.

The point being, his uniqueness causes some changes with the way he is handled which might detract from his overall value, if you are just comparing him "like for like" to other pitchers/hitters.

 

[WayneDougan]

The Angels go with a 6 man rotation, at least in part because of the perceived need to give Ohtani more rest between starts.

Similarly, they feel a need to play him as only a DH, and also are careful with him when he is on the base paths. They would treat him differently if he did not pitch.

The point being, his uniqueness causes some changes with the way he is handled which might detract from his overall value, if you are just comparing him "like for like" to other pitchers/hitters.

You make good points here... After thinking about it I'm in this camp.

1) He should not be the MVP just because he's a top 20 player both in hitting and pitching. MVP should go to the absolute best position player and the Cy Young should go to the best pitcher.
2) His salary should be a combined value of his pitching and hitting. So pay him like a top 20 pitcher + a top 20 hitter.

 

[ukalum01]

The Angels go with a 6 man rotation, at least in part because of the perceived need to give Ohtani more rest between starts.

Similarly, they feel a need to play him as only a DH, and also are careful with him when he is on the base paths. They would treat him differently if he did not pitch.

The point being, his uniqueness causes some changes with the way he is handled which might detract from his overall value, if you are just comparing him "like for like" to other pitchers/hitters.

He was Top 5 in the AL in stolen bases last year and led the majors in triples. He's been pretty aggressive on the bases.

 

[PTI (pti)]

I like analytics and I think they’re a very important part of baseball, but all statistics need to be taken in a full context. WAR can be wildly inaccurate imho. A guy who is one of the best hitters and one of the best pitchers in baseball — WAR really should put him at the top of the list.

Side note: it’s criminal how poorly baseball markets it’s stars. You have two of the most marketable players in the sport playing in near obscurity. That’s awful.

 

[JoeSwag]

 

[HymanKaplan]

Somebody would have to average close to 100 HR's a season to be the "modern day Babe Ruth" It's not just the number of homeruns he hit. What really made him remarkable was the number of homeruns he hit RELATIVE to his peers.

 

[the nail at the foul line]

WAR? Huh. What is it good for? Absolutely nuthin’. Listen to me.

Tolstoy

 

[UnfrozenCatfanLawyer]

I like analytics and I think they’re a very important part of baseball, but all statistics need to be taken in a full context. WAR can be wildly inaccurate imho. A guy who is one of the best hitters and one of the best pitchers in baseball — WAR really should put him at the top of the list.

Side note: it’s criminal how poorly baseball markets it’s stars. You have two of the most marketable players in the sport playing in near obscurity. That’s awful.

And they are somehow managing to be obscure while playing in Los Angeles. It’s absurd.