Wright State Raiders
Conference affiliation: Horizon League
Head Coach: Billy Donlon: 6th season at Wright St (88-83)
Last season: 11-20 (6-10 away)
Schedule (Record: 1-2)
11/13/15 vs South Dakota W 77-69
11/14/15 vs Cal State Northridge L 67-72
11/15/15 at Northern Illinois L 59-65
Game info
11/20/15 at Kentucky, Rupp Arena, Lexington,KY 8:00 pm EST TV: SEC Network
Probable Starters (with stats through 3 games)
F #11 JT Yoho 6-6 235 Sr (15.7pts, 5.3reb, 61.5% from 3)
F #22 Parker Ernsthausen 6-11 225 Fr (0.3pts, only played 8.7mins per game)
G #23 Mark Alstork 6-5 190 So (15.7pts, 3.7reb, 1.3ast)
G #13 Grant Bezinger 6-3 190 So (9.0pts, 3.0reb, 50% from 3)
G #32 Joe Thomasson 6-4 165 Sr (15.0pts, 7.3reb, 6.7ast, 1block)
Key Bench players
C #14 Michael Karena 6-10 270 Sr (5.0pts, 3.5reb)
G #3 Mark Hughes 6-4 180 Fr (1.7pts, 2.0reb, 1.0ast)
G #5 Justin Mitchell 6-3 185 So (2.0pts, 2.0reb, 1.0ast, 1.0steal)
G #15 Brandon Neel 6-3 190 Jr (3.0pts, not much else)
Team stats
Points per game 67.7
Pts allowed 68.7
Scoring margin -1.0
Field goal pct .432
FG % defense .451
3-point FG pct .471
3pt fg D .340
3-pt FG made per game 10.7
Free throw pct .721
Rebounds per game 29.0
Rebounds allowed 35.3
Rebounding margin -6.3
Assists per game 13.3
Turnovers per game 12.3
Turnover margin +0.3
Assist/turnover ratio 1.1
Steals per game 5.0
Blocks per game 1.7
Avg attendance for games: 932
Analysis: Well, this game seems almost unfair for Wright State at this point. They’ve yet to play a home game and now they have to come to Rupp Arena. Their first 3 games were played at Northern IL University in a 4-team round robin in which they lost to 2 of the 3 other teams. After looking them over, the chances of them winning in Rupp are almost nil. Kenpom gives them a 3% chance of beating UK. According to those same stats, the only team on UK’s schedule with less chance of beating UK is Eastern KY. The chance of them keeping the game within 25 points isn’t much better. Their 2 losses are to Cal St Northridge and Northern Illinois, not exactly a couple of juggernauts. They may also be intimidated by the atmosphere, given that they have played in front of a crowd of 932 people on average and their home attendance is less than 5,000 on average.
The best player on the floor for Wright State is easily Joe Thommason, the 6-4 senior guard. He does pretty much everything for the Raiders. He’s not the leading scorer, but he’s only .7 of a point behind the leaders in scoring. He leads the team in assists and rebounds by a wide margin and is shooting 93% from the ft line and 50% from 3. He has scored or assisted on about half of the team’s points this season. UK’s defense will begin with stopping this guy. Wright State runs a 3-guard line-up, and Thommason’s back-court mates are Mark Alstork and Grant Bezinger. All 3 of these guards are about the same size, 6-4 or so. Mark Alstork is scoring 15.7 points per game, which is tied for the team lead. He came off the bench the first 2 games, behind Mark Hughes, but he’s now starting due to his higher scoring production. He’s shooting 47% from 3pt range and has made it to the free throw line quite a bit, so he’s scoring on drives and put backs as well. Bezinger is a better 3pt shooter, coming in at 50% and making 9 on the season thus far. He does most of his damage from the outside.
In the frontcourt, Wright State is led by JT Yoho, the 6-6 235lb senior. He’s the other leading scorer on the team, also scoring 15.7ppg. He leads the team in FG% and also 3FG%. He’s shooting 8-13 from 3pt range on the season, for a blistering 61.5%. He’s also second in rebounding on the team with 5.3reb per game. Unfortunately, he also leads the team in turnovers, with 10 in 3 games. The big man who has been starting is pretty much window dressing. I think the coach may just be wanting to have a chance at the opening tip. Parker Ernsthausen is a 6-11 225lb freshman who has started every game but only plays 8.7 minutes. He has scored a grand total of 1 point in 3 games and he has 0 rebounds or blocked shots. I can’t imagine why he starts other than a hope of getting the opening tip. The other big man, who comes off the bench, is the 6-10 270lb senior Michael Karena. He’s the real center on the team, but his minutes are fairly limited as well. He’s only getting 19.5 minutes and scores 5pts and grabs 3.5 rebounds. He’s not a shot blocker. He plays below the rim. Conditioning may be an issue that keeps him from playing more. Because of this, there may be times when Wright State is playing 4 guards and JT Yoho.
The other bench players don’t do much. Mark Hughes started the first 2 games of the season but didn’t produce very much at all. Justin Mitchell has played more minutes in the last 2 games but still hasn’t produced much on the stat sheet at all, only 2 pts and 2reb in 21.5 mins. Brandon Neel is another 6-3 guard who has played spot minutes mostly.
Wright State plays mostly man to man normally, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them switch to a zone of some kind when they realize they can’t stay in front of our guards. They play at a slow pace and will likely try to slow the game down on UK. If the Cats get a big lead early and they have to speed up a bit on offense, it will spell doom for the Raiders. One thing for sure for UK in this game, they must guard the 3pt line and force these guys to put the ball on the floor. They are shooting 47% from 3 as a team and they shoot a bunch of them- 42% of their FG attempts are 3pt shots. If they get open looks, they will knock them down. UK has done a great job with this so far on the young season, so I don’t anticipate that being a huge issue. Make them put the ball on the floor and it’s game over.
The only thing that might keep this game close early is UK coming in overly confident and playing lazy defense (not getting out on 3pt shooters) after beating Duke Tuesday night. I can’t imagine Ulis would do that, but it might be a temptation for the freshmen. I expect Labissiere to be playing hard from the start in this one, after his less than stellar outing against Duke. Wright State has some height and strength but they don’t really have a guy who can defend him very well.
Prediction: Kentucky 86 Wright State 50
Conference affiliation: Horizon League
Head Coach: Billy Donlon: 6th season at Wright St (88-83)
Last season: 11-20 (6-10 away)
Schedule (Record: 1-2)
11/13/15 vs South Dakota W 77-69
11/14/15 vs Cal State Northridge L 67-72
11/15/15 at Northern Illinois L 59-65
Game info
11/20/15 at Kentucky, Rupp Arena, Lexington,KY 8:00 pm EST TV: SEC Network
Probable Starters (with stats through 3 games)
F #11 JT Yoho 6-6 235 Sr (15.7pts, 5.3reb, 61.5% from 3)
F #22 Parker Ernsthausen 6-11 225 Fr (0.3pts, only played 8.7mins per game)
G #23 Mark Alstork 6-5 190 So (15.7pts, 3.7reb, 1.3ast)
G #13 Grant Bezinger 6-3 190 So (9.0pts, 3.0reb, 50% from 3)
G #32 Joe Thomasson 6-4 165 Sr (15.0pts, 7.3reb, 6.7ast, 1block)
Key Bench players
C #14 Michael Karena 6-10 270 Sr (5.0pts, 3.5reb)
G #3 Mark Hughes 6-4 180 Fr (1.7pts, 2.0reb, 1.0ast)
G #5 Justin Mitchell 6-3 185 So (2.0pts, 2.0reb, 1.0ast, 1.0steal)
G #15 Brandon Neel 6-3 190 Jr (3.0pts, not much else)
Team stats
Points per game 67.7
Pts allowed 68.7
Scoring margin -1.0
Field goal pct .432
FG % defense .451
3-point FG pct .471
3pt fg D .340
3-pt FG made per game 10.7
Free throw pct .721
Rebounds per game 29.0
Rebounds allowed 35.3
Rebounding margin -6.3
Assists per game 13.3
Turnovers per game 12.3
Turnover margin +0.3
Assist/turnover ratio 1.1
Steals per game 5.0
Blocks per game 1.7
Avg attendance for games: 932
Analysis: Well, this game seems almost unfair for Wright State at this point. They’ve yet to play a home game and now they have to come to Rupp Arena. Their first 3 games were played at Northern IL University in a 4-team round robin in which they lost to 2 of the 3 other teams. After looking them over, the chances of them winning in Rupp are almost nil. Kenpom gives them a 3% chance of beating UK. According to those same stats, the only team on UK’s schedule with less chance of beating UK is Eastern KY. The chance of them keeping the game within 25 points isn’t much better. Their 2 losses are to Cal St Northridge and Northern Illinois, not exactly a couple of juggernauts. They may also be intimidated by the atmosphere, given that they have played in front of a crowd of 932 people on average and their home attendance is less than 5,000 on average.
The best player on the floor for Wright State is easily Joe Thommason, the 6-4 senior guard. He does pretty much everything for the Raiders. He’s not the leading scorer, but he’s only .7 of a point behind the leaders in scoring. He leads the team in assists and rebounds by a wide margin and is shooting 93% from the ft line and 50% from 3. He has scored or assisted on about half of the team’s points this season. UK’s defense will begin with stopping this guy. Wright State runs a 3-guard line-up, and Thommason’s back-court mates are Mark Alstork and Grant Bezinger. All 3 of these guards are about the same size, 6-4 or so. Mark Alstork is scoring 15.7 points per game, which is tied for the team lead. He came off the bench the first 2 games, behind Mark Hughes, but he’s now starting due to his higher scoring production. He’s shooting 47% from 3pt range and has made it to the free throw line quite a bit, so he’s scoring on drives and put backs as well. Bezinger is a better 3pt shooter, coming in at 50% and making 9 on the season thus far. He does most of his damage from the outside.
In the frontcourt, Wright State is led by JT Yoho, the 6-6 235lb senior. He’s the other leading scorer on the team, also scoring 15.7ppg. He leads the team in FG% and also 3FG%. He’s shooting 8-13 from 3pt range on the season, for a blistering 61.5%. He’s also second in rebounding on the team with 5.3reb per game. Unfortunately, he also leads the team in turnovers, with 10 in 3 games. The big man who has been starting is pretty much window dressing. I think the coach may just be wanting to have a chance at the opening tip. Parker Ernsthausen is a 6-11 225lb freshman who has started every game but only plays 8.7 minutes. He has scored a grand total of 1 point in 3 games and he has 0 rebounds or blocked shots. I can’t imagine why he starts other than a hope of getting the opening tip. The other big man, who comes off the bench, is the 6-10 270lb senior Michael Karena. He’s the real center on the team, but his minutes are fairly limited as well. He’s only getting 19.5 minutes and scores 5pts and grabs 3.5 rebounds. He’s not a shot blocker. He plays below the rim. Conditioning may be an issue that keeps him from playing more. Because of this, there may be times when Wright State is playing 4 guards and JT Yoho.
The other bench players don’t do much. Mark Hughes started the first 2 games of the season but didn’t produce very much at all. Justin Mitchell has played more minutes in the last 2 games but still hasn’t produced much on the stat sheet at all, only 2 pts and 2reb in 21.5 mins. Brandon Neel is another 6-3 guard who has played spot minutes mostly.
Wright State plays mostly man to man normally, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them switch to a zone of some kind when they realize they can’t stay in front of our guards. They play at a slow pace and will likely try to slow the game down on UK. If the Cats get a big lead early and they have to speed up a bit on offense, it will spell doom for the Raiders. One thing for sure for UK in this game, they must guard the 3pt line and force these guys to put the ball on the floor. They are shooting 47% from 3 as a team and they shoot a bunch of them- 42% of their FG attempts are 3pt shots. If they get open looks, they will knock them down. UK has done a great job with this so far on the young season, so I don’t anticipate that being a huge issue. Make them put the ball on the floor and it’s game over.
The only thing that might keep this game close early is UK coming in overly confident and playing lazy defense (not getting out on 3pt shooters) after beating Duke Tuesday night. I can’t imagine Ulis would do that, but it might be a temptation for the freshmen. I expect Labissiere to be playing hard from the start in this one, after his less than stellar outing against Duke. Wright State has some height and strength but they don’t really have a guy who can defend him very well.
Prediction: Kentucky 86 Wright State 50
