Vanderbilt Commodores
Head Coach: Kevin Stallings 447-276 (.618), 324-213 (.603) in his 17th season
Current record: 11-7, 3-3 in SEC (1-4 away)
Schedule
11/13/15 AUSTIN PEAY W 80-41
11/16/15 GARDNER-WEBB W 98-62
11/19/15 STONY BROOK W OT 79-72
#11/23/15 vs ST JOHNS W 92-55
#11/24/15 vs Wake Forest W 86-64
#11/25/15 vs KANSAS L 63-70
12/02/15 DETROIT W 102-52
12/6/15 at Baylor L 67-69
12/09/15 DAYTON L 67-72
12/19/15 WOFFORD W 80-56
12/22/15 at Purdue L 55-68
12/30/15 WESTERN MICHIGAN W 86-61
*01/02/16 LSU L 82-90
*01/05/16 at Arkansas LOT 85-90
*1/9/16 at South Carolina L 65-69
*01/12/16 AUBURN W 75-57
*01/16/16 ALABAMA W 71-63
*01/20/16 at Tennessee W 88-74
# Maui Invitational
* Conference game
Game info:
01/23/16 Vanderbilt at Kentucky, Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY, 4:00 EST, TV: ESPN
Probable Starters
F #3 Luke Kornet 7-1 240 Jr, 9.5pts, 7.3reb, 1.5ast, 3.3blks, .231 3pt%
F #11 Jeff Roberson 6-6 220 So, 9.3pts, 5.8reb, 1.1ast, .469 3pt%
C #30 Damian Jones 7-0 245 Jr, 12.6pts, 6.4reb, 1.4ast, no 3pt threat
G #13 Riley LaChance 6-2 182 So, 9.7pts, 2.4reb, 2.8ast, .407 3pt%
G #4 Wade Baldwin IV 6-3 194 So, 14.9pts, 4.1reb, 4.6ast, .463 3pt%
Key Reserves
G/F #5 Matthew Fisher-Davis 6-5 185 So, 9.0pts, 3.6reb, 1.2ast, .494 3pt%
G #24 Nolan Cressler 6-4 210 Jr, 5.1pts, 2.6reb, .295 3pt%
G #0 Camron Justice 6-3 180 Fr, 4.3pts, 1.4reb, .406 3pt%
C #40 Josh Henderson 7-0 237 Grad, 4.1pts, 2.6reb, .500 3pt%
G/F #2 Joe Toye 6-7 201 Fr, 3.8pts, 1.4reb, .333 3pt%
Team Stats
Points per game 78.9
Points allowed 65.8
Scoring margin +13.1
Field goal pct .464
FG% allowed .373
3-point FG pct .408
3pt% allowed .270
Free throw pct .707
Rebounds per game 38.8
Rebounds allowed 37.4
Rebounding margin +1.4
Assists per game 15.1
Turnovers per game 12.1
Turnover margin -0.7
Assist/turnover ratio 1.2
Steals per game 4.8
Blocks per game 5.6
KenPom Analysis (#27 Vanderbilt)
Statistical Strengths
#1 in Effective FG% allowing 41.2%
#1 in 3pt FG% defense allowing 27.0%
#14 in overall defense
#10 in 3pt% at 40.8%
Statistical Weaknesses
#278 in offensive rebounding percentage
#308 in turnover percentage at 15.9%
#316 in steal percentage
Analysis: Well, it's been a bit of a disappointing season so far for the Vanderbilt Commodores, a preseason top 20 team (preseason #2 in SEC) which finds itself coming into Rupp Arena on January 23 carrying 7 losses on the season, 3-3 in the SEC and tied with 4 others for 6th, and having missed out on pretty much every shot at an NCAA-tournament resume building win on the season. In fact, at this point Vandy's best win according to KenPom is a 7pt home win over #50 Stony Brook that required OT to accomplish. Beyond that, outside of Stony Brook, their best win was over #89 Alabama. They do come into this game with Kentucky having won 3 straight games, including a 14pt victory over rival Tennessee in Knoxville for their first road win of the season, a game in which the Commodores made 13 three pointers while shooting nearly 40% from distance.
Vanderbilt's overall record is deceiving because 4 of those losses, possibly even 5 or 6 of them, are directly related to the injury to Luke Kornet. He was injured during the Baylor game, which turned into a 2pt loss. He missed the Dayton, Wofford, and LSU losses and then he was getting back into the swing in the road losses to Arkansas and South Carolina. I'm sure some would say that one guy wouldn't make that much difference, and that may be true, but he is a key player for Vandy without a back-up that can provide the same kind of skill.
When you're looking at Vanderbilt, everything starts with their point guard, 6-3 194 sophomore Wade Baldwin. Baldwin leads the team in scoring, assists and steals, and he's 3rd in rebounding from the point guard position. Joining him in the backcourt is sharpshooting guard Riley LaChance, a guy UK fans know well from his excellent play as a freshman for the Commodores. LaChance doesn't need much room to get off his shot and he's shooting the 3 at 40.7%, which is not even the high mark for the team.
In the frontcourt, Vanderbilt starts 3 versatile forwards. The guy who gets most of the attention is the 7-foot junior Damion Jones and rightfully so. Jones is a guy who is a handful down low because of his length and his strength. He's a true back to the basket scorer who may make life difficult for UK's post players in this game. He's second on the team in scoring, rebounding, and blocks. The guy he's been missing in several games is Luke Kornet, another 7-footer who has a more versatile game than Jones and takes the pressure off him in a big way. Kornet can step out and shoot the jumper all the way out to 3pt range. Though he doesn't shoot a high percentage from 3, he's still a threat from the outside and can get hot for a particular game. The third member of the frontcourt is Jeff Roberson, a 6-6 220 small forward who does a little bit of everything for Vandy. He scores a little more than 9 points per game and can shoot the 3 also, hitting 46.9% from beyond the arc. He's also 3rd on the team in rebounding.
From the bench, Vandy brings in a couple more sharpshooters, which is not surprising. Matthew Fisher-Davis leads the team in both 3pt makes and percentage on the season, making 40-81 3pt shots. When he's in the game, someone should be stuck to him like glue. Of his 111 shots on the season, 81 are 3pt attempts. He'd be starting if not for LaChance. Nolan Cressler and Cameron Justice are the other 2 primary guards coming off the bench for Vandy. Justice is the better shooter of these 2, hitting 40.6% of his threes. Cressler isn't a great shooter but comes in to handle the ball and play defense. Remember Josh Henderson? He's still there and is a grad student now. He's a 7 footer also but his minutes have decreased with the emergence of Jones and Kornet. He scores 4 points a game and grabs 2.6 rebounds. He's only playing 12 minutes per game but those numbers are a bit inflated because he played more in the absence of Kornet. I'd guess, barring foul trouble for Vandy's big men, we won't see much of him. The other forward coming off the bench is Joe Toye, a 6-7 freshman who only plays 8 minutes or so and may not get much clock in Rupp.
I fully expect this game to be a tough one. Both teams have had some disappointment this season and both have struggled at times, but both also just played one of their best games of the season last time out. I expect Vandy to come in looking to fire up a bunch of threes and also to look to get our big men in foul trouble early if possible. UK will have its hands full with Jones and Kornet, without a doubt. The Cats should be ready for the 3pt shooting, given the fact that the focus of the defense against Arkansas was to stop the 3pt shots, a job UK did exceptionally well. UK held Arkansas to a season low in both makes and percentage, and also held the Hogs to its second lowest number of 3pt attempts. (Arkansas' lowest number of attempts was 10 in a game they won by 37) So, our Cats should be prepared to focus on 3pt defense, which will serve them well in this one. The trouble, though, is that Vandy has more shooters and they also have more inside to contend with. Still, if UK plays with the same intensity they played with against Arkansas, this should be a win. I'm just hoping our bipolar team doesn't swing back the other direction in this game. I'm hoping the good play carries over.
Prediction: Kentucky 74 Vanderbilt 66
Head Coach: Kevin Stallings 447-276 (.618), 324-213 (.603) in his 17th season
Current record: 11-7, 3-3 in SEC (1-4 away)
Schedule
11/13/15 AUSTIN PEAY W 80-41
11/16/15 GARDNER-WEBB W 98-62
11/19/15 STONY BROOK W OT 79-72
#11/23/15 vs ST JOHNS W 92-55
#11/24/15 vs Wake Forest W 86-64
#11/25/15 vs KANSAS L 63-70
12/02/15 DETROIT W 102-52
12/6/15 at Baylor L 67-69
12/09/15 DAYTON L 67-72
12/19/15 WOFFORD W 80-56
12/22/15 at Purdue L 55-68
12/30/15 WESTERN MICHIGAN W 86-61
*01/02/16 LSU L 82-90
*01/05/16 at Arkansas LOT 85-90
*1/9/16 at South Carolina L 65-69
*01/12/16 AUBURN W 75-57
*01/16/16 ALABAMA W 71-63
*01/20/16 at Tennessee W 88-74
# Maui Invitational
* Conference game
Game info:
01/23/16 Vanderbilt at Kentucky, Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY, 4:00 EST, TV: ESPN
Probable Starters
F #3 Luke Kornet 7-1 240 Jr, 9.5pts, 7.3reb, 1.5ast, 3.3blks, .231 3pt%
F #11 Jeff Roberson 6-6 220 So, 9.3pts, 5.8reb, 1.1ast, .469 3pt%
C #30 Damian Jones 7-0 245 Jr, 12.6pts, 6.4reb, 1.4ast, no 3pt threat
G #13 Riley LaChance 6-2 182 So, 9.7pts, 2.4reb, 2.8ast, .407 3pt%
G #4 Wade Baldwin IV 6-3 194 So, 14.9pts, 4.1reb, 4.6ast, .463 3pt%
Key Reserves
G/F #5 Matthew Fisher-Davis 6-5 185 So, 9.0pts, 3.6reb, 1.2ast, .494 3pt%
G #24 Nolan Cressler 6-4 210 Jr, 5.1pts, 2.6reb, .295 3pt%
G #0 Camron Justice 6-3 180 Fr, 4.3pts, 1.4reb, .406 3pt%
C #40 Josh Henderson 7-0 237 Grad, 4.1pts, 2.6reb, .500 3pt%
G/F #2 Joe Toye 6-7 201 Fr, 3.8pts, 1.4reb, .333 3pt%
Team Stats
Points per game 78.9
Points allowed 65.8
Scoring margin +13.1
Field goal pct .464
FG% allowed .373
3-point FG pct .408
3pt% allowed .270
Free throw pct .707
Rebounds per game 38.8
Rebounds allowed 37.4
Rebounding margin +1.4
Assists per game 15.1
Turnovers per game 12.1
Turnover margin -0.7
Assist/turnover ratio 1.2
Steals per game 4.8
Blocks per game 5.6
KenPom Analysis (#27 Vanderbilt)
Statistical Strengths
#1 in Effective FG% allowing 41.2%
#1 in 3pt FG% defense allowing 27.0%
#14 in overall defense
#10 in 3pt% at 40.8%
Statistical Weaknesses
#278 in offensive rebounding percentage
#308 in turnover percentage at 15.9%
#316 in steal percentage
Analysis: Well, it's been a bit of a disappointing season so far for the Vanderbilt Commodores, a preseason top 20 team (preseason #2 in SEC) which finds itself coming into Rupp Arena on January 23 carrying 7 losses on the season, 3-3 in the SEC and tied with 4 others for 6th, and having missed out on pretty much every shot at an NCAA-tournament resume building win on the season. In fact, at this point Vandy's best win according to KenPom is a 7pt home win over #50 Stony Brook that required OT to accomplish. Beyond that, outside of Stony Brook, their best win was over #89 Alabama. They do come into this game with Kentucky having won 3 straight games, including a 14pt victory over rival Tennessee in Knoxville for their first road win of the season, a game in which the Commodores made 13 three pointers while shooting nearly 40% from distance.
Vanderbilt's overall record is deceiving because 4 of those losses, possibly even 5 or 6 of them, are directly related to the injury to Luke Kornet. He was injured during the Baylor game, which turned into a 2pt loss. He missed the Dayton, Wofford, and LSU losses and then he was getting back into the swing in the road losses to Arkansas and South Carolina. I'm sure some would say that one guy wouldn't make that much difference, and that may be true, but he is a key player for Vandy without a back-up that can provide the same kind of skill.
When you're looking at Vanderbilt, everything starts with their point guard, 6-3 194 sophomore Wade Baldwin. Baldwin leads the team in scoring, assists and steals, and he's 3rd in rebounding from the point guard position. Joining him in the backcourt is sharpshooting guard Riley LaChance, a guy UK fans know well from his excellent play as a freshman for the Commodores. LaChance doesn't need much room to get off his shot and he's shooting the 3 at 40.7%, which is not even the high mark for the team.
In the frontcourt, Vanderbilt starts 3 versatile forwards. The guy who gets most of the attention is the 7-foot junior Damion Jones and rightfully so. Jones is a guy who is a handful down low because of his length and his strength. He's a true back to the basket scorer who may make life difficult for UK's post players in this game. He's second on the team in scoring, rebounding, and blocks. The guy he's been missing in several games is Luke Kornet, another 7-footer who has a more versatile game than Jones and takes the pressure off him in a big way. Kornet can step out and shoot the jumper all the way out to 3pt range. Though he doesn't shoot a high percentage from 3, he's still a threat from the outside and can get hot for a particular game. The third member of the frontcourt is Jeff Roberson, a 6-6 220 small forward who does a little bit of everything for Vandy. He scores a little more than 9 points per game and can shoot the 3 also, hitting 46.9% from beyond the arc. He's also 3rd on the team in rebounding.
From the bench, Vandy brings in a couple more sharpshooters, which is not surprising. Matthew Fisher-Davis leads the team in both 3pt makes and percentage on the season, making 40-81 3pt shots. When he's in the game, someone should be stuck to him like glue. Of his 111 shots on the season, 81 are 3pt attempts. He'd be starting if not for LaChance. Nolan Cressler and Cameron Justice are the other 2 primary guards coming off the bench for Vandy. Justice is the better shooter of these 2, hitting 40.6% of his threes. Cressler isn't a great shooter but comes in to handle the ball and play defense. Remember Josh Henderson? He's still there and is a grad student now. He's a 7 footer also but his minutes have decreased with the emergence of Jones and Kornet. He scores 4 points a game and grabs 2.6 rebounds. He's only playing 12 minutes per game but those numbers are a bit inflated because he played more in the absence of Kornet. I'd guess, barring foul trouble for Vandy's big men, we won't see much of him. The other forward coming off the bench is Joe Toye, a 6-7 freshman who only plays 8 minutes or so and may not get much clock in Rupp.
I fully expect this game to be a tough one. Both teams have had some disappointment this season and both have struggled at times, but both also just played one of their best games of the season last time out. I expect Vandy to come in looking to fire up a bunch of threes and also to look to get our big men in foul trouble early if possible. UK will have its hands full with Jones and Kornet, without a doubt. The Cats should be ready for the 3pt shooting, given the fact that the focus of the defense against Arkansas was to stop the 3pt shots, a job UK did exceptionally well. UK held Arkansas to a season low in both makes and percentage, and also held the Hogs to its second lowest number of 3pt attempts. (Arkansas' lowest number of attempts was 10 in a game they won by 37) So, our Cats should be prepared to focus on 3pt defense, which will serve them well in this one. The trouble, though, is that Vandy has more shooters and they also have more inside to contend with. Still, if UK plays with the same intensity they played with against Arkansas, this should be a win. I'm just hoping our bipolar team doesn't swing back the other direction in this game. I'm hoping the good play carries over.
Prediction: Kentucky 74 Vanderbilt 66
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