Tennessee Volunteers
Head Coach: Rick Barnes 616-327 (.653), 12-13 in 1st season at UT
Overall Record: 12-13, 5-7 in SEC (1-8 away, 1-5 away in SEC)
2015-16 Schedule
11/13/15 UNC ASHEVILLE W 82-78
11/16/15 at Georgia Tech L 67-69
11/19/15 MARSHALL W 84-74
11/22/15 GARDNER-WEBB W 89-64
11/24/15 ARMY WEST POINT W 95-80
? 11/27/15 vs George Washington L 70-73
? 11/28/15 vs Nebraska L 71-82
12/12/15 at Butler L 86-94
12/16/15 FLORIDA ATLANTIC W 81-62
& 12/19/15 vs Gonzaga L 79-86
12/22/15 ETSU W 76-67
12/29/15 TENNESSEE STATE W 74-69
* 01/02/16 at Auburn L 77-83
* 01/06/16 FLORIDA W 83-69
* 01/09/16 TEXAS A&M L 88-92
* 01/13/16 at Georgia L 72-81
* 01/16/16 at Mississippi State W 80-75
* 01/20/16 VANDERBILT L 74-88
* 01/23/16 SOUTH CAROLINA W 78-69
* 01/26/16 at Alabama L 57-63
01/30/16 at TCU L 63-75
*02/02/16 KENTUCKY W 84-77 19295
* 02/06/16 at Arkansas L 67-85 15970
* 02/09/16 AUBURN W 71-45 13740
* 02/13/16 at Mizzou L 64-75 10536
? = Barclays Center Classic (Brooklyn, N.Y.)
& = Battle in Seattle (Seattle, Wash.)
* = Southeastern Conference game
Game Information
02/18/16 Tennessee a Kentucky, Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY, 7:00pm EST, TV: ESPN
Probable Starters
F #11 Kyle Alexander 6-9 215 Fr, 1.7pts, 2.8reb, no 3pt threat
F #4 Armani Moore 6-4 217 Sr, 11.3pts, 8.0reb, 3.8ast, 1.8blks, .311 3pt%
G #34 Devon Baulkman 6-4 200 Sr, 9.0pts, 3.3reb, 1.8ast, .341 3pt%
G #25 Shembari Phillips 6-2 190 Fr, 4.0pts, 1.3reb, .387 3pt%
G #0 Kevin Punter 6-2 190 Sr, 22.3pts, 3.5reb, 3.6ast, 1.4stls, .373 3pt%
Key Reserves
G #3 Robert Hubbs III 6-4 207 Jr, 11.1pts, 4.1reb, 1.3ast, .189 3pt%
G #15 Detrick Mostella 6-1 175 So, 8.3pts, 2.0reb, 1.0ast, .327 3pt%
F #5 Admiral Schofield 6-5 240 Fr, 6.6pts, 4.0reb, .300 3pt%
F #23 Derek Reese 6-7 230 Sr, 2.6pts, 5.2reb, .400 3pt% (only 2-5 on the season)
Team Stats
Points per game 76.5
Point allowed 75.0
Scoring margin +1.5
Field goal pct .417
FG% allowed .421
3-point FG pct .333
3pt FG% allowed .334
Free throw pct .738
Rebounds per game 38.4
Rebounds allowed 40.7
Rebounding margin -2.4
Assists per game 13.6
Turnovers per game 11.1
Turnover margin +2.0
Assist/turnover ratio 1.2
Steals per game 5.8
Blocks per game 5.0
Analysis:
Tennessee hasn’t done much since that game with Kentucky back on Feb. 2 to make us feel any better about that loss. The only win they’ve had since then is a home win over Auburn without the Tigers’ point guard, Kareem Canty. That win was sandwiched between 2 rough road losses, an 85-67 loss at Arkansas and a 75-64 road loss at Missouri. To say that this Tennessee team is a different team at home versus on the road is an understatement. Most teams play better at home, but this particular team has a Jekyll and Hyde thing going on. They are 11-2 at home this season and 1-8 on the road. I’d say their chances of being the first team to beat UK at Rupp this year is highly unlikely, to put it mildly.
We all know the personnel for Tennessee by now. They’ve mixed up the starting line-ups quite a bit since we played them, though it hasn’t done them much good. It seems Barnes is just trying to find some kind of mix that will work, but the result may be worse than just sticking with what you had. Anyway, the players are still the same as before, though some may be playing much less. It all starts with senior Kevin Punter. Punter’s scoring has dropped slightly since playing UK, dipping from 23.0 points to 22.3 per game. He’s still leading the team in scoring, steals, and 3pt makes and percentage. He scored 27 points the first time around. Last time we played, junior Robert Hubbs was 2nd on the team in scoring, but he’s now 3rd behind Armani Moore. In fact, Hubbs has put up some crappy numbers in 2 of 3 games since playing UK. He had 8 against the Cats and 20 against Auburn in home games, but only 2 points in both the Arkansas and Missouri games. Senior Devon Baulkman has kept his starting spot since the game with Kentucky. He’s one of the few guys who played well on the road at Missouri, finishing with 17 points while going 4-8 from 3pt range in that game. He and Punter carried the team in scoring in that game.
Hubbs may have lost his starting job so that the team can add more size with 6-9 Kyle Alexander. Alexander didn’t do much of anything against UK the first time around, but he’s seen his minutes increase a bit since then. Still, he’s not much of a scorer at all. The best thing he can do is rebound a little, defend bigger guys than most other UT players, and score when he gets the ball wide open under the goal. Armani Moore has become even more important in recent games for Tennessee. I think his play may have surprised the Cats a bit in Knoxville. He plays much bigger than his 6-4 frame would make you think. He’s pretty much their post presence and he actually does a fair job providing that while leading the team in rebounding, blocks, and assists.
A guy who has emerged since the UK game and has started a couple games is Shembari Phillips, the 6-2 freshman guard. He has scored in double figures in 2 of the last 3 games for Tennessee while his minutes have increased. The other casualty in this topsy turvy Tennessee roller coaster is Admiral Schofield. He played 28 minutes against UK and started the Arkansas game but only played 18 minutes in that game. Against Auburn he got 15 minutes but at Missouri he only played 7 minutes while Phillips got the lion’s share. Of course, we’ll still be seeing quite a bit of Derek Reese, the 6-7 230 senior forward.
I think we all have a pretty good feel for Tennessee at this point. Their best chance of winning is to play like their hair is on fire the entire time. They need Punter and Moore to carry the load scoring and they need their wings to knock down threes when they have the opportunity. But, as I said above, they just haven’t played well at all on the road this season. That 1-8 record on the road is very telling. The problem has not been Punter and Moore on the road. They’ve done their part in most games. The real problem has been the supporting cast. Guys like Schofield, Hubbs, and Baulkman just haven’t produced away from Thompson Boling Arena. I don’t expect this game to be any different.
What to expect: I expect the beginning of this game to go much like the beginning of the first game, with UK coming out ready to play and UT playing tight. But the difference this time around will be that UK will finish the job once they get Tennessee down, instead of checking out. After losing that 21-point lead in the first game and hearing about it every day since, the chances that the Cats play with no energy and lose focus in this game are very slim. I wouldn’t be surprised if this game becomes an epic beat-down of the 30+ point variety. Ok Tennessee, you have Kentucky’s undivided attention. How does that feel? And you’re coming to Rupp Arena to take your medicine. What will the final margin be? Vegas set the line at UK-14.5 to open and it has moved to -17 last I saw. That speaks volumes for a game where the first meeting was a UT win. Even Barnes himself all but admitted this week that the first game was a bit of a fluke. UK can claim the top spot and be all alone in first place in the SEC if they win this game. UK also stands to move up in the rankings and improve seeding in the Dance. Meanwhile, Tennessee could potentially move to .500 on the season with a win. UK wins big.
Prediction: Kentucky 86 Tennessee 60
Head Coach: Rick Barnes 616-327 (.653), 12-13 in 1st season at UT
Overall Record: 12-13, 5-7 in SEC (1-8 away, 1-5 away in SEC)
2015-16 Schedule
11/13/15 UNC ASHEVILLE W 82-78
11/16/15 at Georgia Tech L 67-69
11/19/15 MARSHALL W 84-74
11/22/15 GARDNER-WEBB W 89-64
11/24/15 ARMY WEST POINT W 95-80
? 11/27/15 vs George Washington L 70-73
? 11/28/15 vs Nebraska L 71-82
12/12/15 at Butler L 86-94
12/16/15 FLORIDA ATLANTIC W 81-62
& 12/19/15 vs Gonzaga L 79-86
12/22/15 ETSU W 76-67
12/29/15 TENNESSEE STATE W 74-69
* 01/02/16 at Auburn L 77-83
* 01/06/16 FLORIDA W 83-69
* 01/09/16 TEXAS A&M L 88-92
* 01/13/16 at Georgia L 72-81
* 01/16/16 at Mississippi State W 80-75
* 01/20/16 VANDERBILT L 74-88
* 01/23/16 SOUTH CAROLINA W 78-69
* 01/26/16 at Alabama L 57-63
01/30/16 at TCU L 63-75
*02/02/16 KENTUCKY W 84-77 19295
* 02/06/16 at Arkansas L 67-85 15970
* 02/09/16 AUBURN W 71-45 13740
* 02/13/16 at Mizzou L 64-75 10536
? = Barclays Center Classic (Brooklyn, N.Y.)
& = Battle in Seattle (Seattle, Wash.)
* = Southeastern Conference game
Game Information
02/18/16 Tennessee a Kentucky, Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY, 7:00pm EST, TV: ESPN
Probable Starters
F #11 Kyle Alexander 6-9 215 Fr, 1.7pts, 2.8reb, no 3pt threat
F #4 Armani Moore 6-4 217 Sr, 11.3pts, 8.0reb, 3.8ast, 1.8blks, .311 3pt%
G #34 Devon Baulkman 6-4 200 Sr, 9.0pts, 3.3reb, 1.8ast, .341 3pt%
G #25 Shembari Phillips 6-2 190 Fr, 4.0pts, 1.3reb, .387 3pt%
G #0 Kevin Punter 6-2 190 Sr, 22.3pts, 3.5reb, 3.6ast, 1.4stls, .373 3pt%
Key Reserves
G #3 Robert Hubbs III 6-4 207 Jr, 11.1pts, 4.1reb, 1.3ast, .189 3pt%
G #15 Detrick Mostella 6-1 175 So, 8.3pts, 2.0reb, 1.0ast, .327 3pt%
F #5 Admiral Schofield 6-5 240 Fr, 6.6pts, 4.0reb, .300 3pt%
F #23 Derek Reese 6-7 230 Sr, 2.6pts, 5.2reb, .400 3pt% (only 2-5 on the season)
Team Stats
Points per game 76.5
Point allowed 75.0
Scoring margin +1.5
Field goal pct .417
FG% allowed .421
3-point FG pct .333
3pt FG% allowed .334
Free throw pct .738
Rebounds per game 38.4
Rebounds allowed 40.7
Rebounding margin -2.4
Assists per game 13.6
Turnovers per game 11.1
Turnover margin +2.0
Assist/turnover ratio 1.2
Steals per game 5.8
Blocks per game 5.0
Analysis:
Tennessee hasn’t done much since that game with Kentucky back on Feb. 2 to make us feel any better about that loss. The only win they’ve had since then is a home win over Auburn without the Tigers’ point guard, Kareem Canty. That win was sandwiched between 2 rough road losses, an 85-67 loss at Arkansas and a 75-64 road loss at Missouri. To say that this Tennessee team is a different team at home versus on the road is an understatement. Most teams play better at home, but this particular team has a Jekyll and Hyde thing going on. They are 11-2 at home this season and 1-8 on the road. I’d say their chances of being the first team to beat UK at Rupp this year is highly unlikely, to put it mildly.
We all know the personnel for Tennessee by now. They’ve mixed up the starting line-ups quite a bit since we played them, though it hasn’t done them much good. It seems Barnes is just trying to find some kind of mix that will work, but the result may be worse than just sticking with what you had. Anyway, the players are still the same as before, though some may be playing much less. It all starts with senior Kevin Punter. Punter’s scoring has dropped slightly since playing UK, dipping from 23.0 points to 22.3 per game. He’s still leading the team in scoring, steals, and 3pt makes and percentage. He scored 27 points the first time around. Last time we played, junior Robert Hubbs was 2nd on the team in scoring, but he’s now 3rd behind Armani Moore. In fact, Hubbs has put up some crappy numbers in 2 of 3 games since playing UK. He had 8 against the Cats and 20 against Auburn in home games, but only 2 points in both the Arkansas and Missouri games. Senior Devon Baulkman has kept his starting spot since the game with Kentucky. He’s one of the few guys who played well on the road at Missouri, finishing with 17 points while going 4-8 from 3pt range in that game. He and Punter carried the team in scoring in that game.
Hubbs may have lost his starting job so that the team can add more size with 6-9 Kyle Alexander. Alexander didn’t do much of anything against UK the first time around, but he’s seen his minutes increase a bit since then. Still, he’s not much of a scorer at all. The best thing he can do is rebound a little, defend bigger guys than most other UT players, and score when he gets the ball wide open under the goal. Armani Moore has become even more important in recent games for Tennessee. I think his play may have surprised the Cats a bit in Knoxville. He plays much bigger than his 6-4 frame would make you think. He’s pretty much their post presence and he actually does a fair job providing that while leading the team in rebounding, blocks, and assists.
A guy who has emerged since the UK game and has started a couple games is Shembari Phillips, the 6-2 freshman guard. He has scored in double figures in 2 of the last 3 games for Tennessee while his minutes have increased. The other casualty in this topsy turvy Tennessee roller coaster is Admiral Schofield. He played 28 minutes against UK and started the Arkansas game but only played 18 minutes in that game. Against Auburn he got 15 minutes but at Missouri he only played 7 minutes while Phillips got the lion’s share. Of course, we’ll still be seeing quite a bit of Derek Reese, the 6-7 230 senior forward.
I think we all have a pretty good feel for Tennessee at this point. Their best chance of winning is to play like their hair is on fire the entire time. They need Punter and Moore to carry the load scoring and they need their wings to knock down threes when they have the opportunity. But, as I said above, they just haven’t played well at all on the road this season. That 1-8 record on the road is very telling. The problem has not been Punter and Moore on the road. They’ve done their part in most games. The real problem has been the supporting cast. Guys like Schofield, Hubbs, and Baulkman just haven’t produced away from Thompson Boling Arena. I don’t expect this game to be any different.
What to expect: I expect the beginning of this game to go much like the beginning of the first game, with UK coming out ready to play and UT playing tight. But the difference this time around will be that UK will finish the job once they get Tennessee down, instead of checking out. After losing that 21-point lead in the first game and hearing about it every day since, the chances that the Cats play with no energy and lose focus in this game are very slim. I wouldn’t be surprised if this game becomes an epic beat-down of the 30+ point variety. Ok Tennessee, you have Kentucky’s undivided attention. How does that feel? And you’re coming to Rupp Arena to take your medicine. What will the final margin be? Vegas set the line at UK-14.5 to open and it has moved to -17 last I saw. That speaks volumes for a game where the first meeting was a UT win. Even Barnes himself all but admitted this week that the first game was a bit of a fluke. UK can claim the top spot and be all alone in first place in the SEC if they win this game. UK also stands to move up in the rankings and improve seeding in the Dance. Meanwhile, Tennessee could potentially move to .500 on the season with a win. UK wins big.
Prediction: Kentucky 86 Tennessee 60
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