Ole Miss Rebels
Head Coach: Andy Kennedy 223-128 overall, 202-116 (.635) in his 10th season at Ole Miss
This year's record: 10-2 (3-0 away, 2-2 neutral)
Schedule
11/13/15 Northwestern St W 90-76
11/16/15 Georgia Southern W 82-72
11/19/15 vs George Mason L 62-68
11/20/15 vs Towson W 76-60
11/22/15 vs Seton Hall L 63-75
11/25/15 Georgia St W 68-59
11-28-15 at Bradley W 67-54
12/05/15 at Massachusetts W 74-64
12-12-15 at Southeast Missouri W 75-64
12/15/15 Louisiana Tech W 99-80
12/18/15 at Memphis W 85-79
12/22/15 Troy Wot 83-80
01/02/16 at Kentucky 7:00 pm EST, TV: SEC Network
Probable Starters (stats through 12 games)
F #11 Sebastian Saiz 6-9 233 Jr. 11.7pts, 10.2reb*, 1.3blks*, .286 3pt%
F #12 Tomasz Gielo 6-9 220 Sr. 9.2pts, 4.6reb, 1.4ast, .327 3pt%
G #14 Rasheed Brooks 6-5 192 Jr. 7.5pts, 1.8reb, 2.0ast, .350 3pt%
G #1 Martavious Newby 6-3 210 Sr. 6.1pts, 5.3reb, 1.9ast, 1.7stls*, .214 3pt%
G #42 Stefan Moody 5-10 179 Sr. 23.8pts*, 3.2reb, 4.3ast*, .359 3pt%*
Key Reserves
G #10 Sam Finley 6-2 179 Jr. 6.4pts, 2.1reb, .133 3pt%
F #13 Anthony Perez 6-9 205 Sr. 6.1pts, 3.9reb, 1.0ast, .250 3pt%
F #5 Marcanvis Hymon 6-6 207 Fr. 5.8pts, 5.8reb, no 3pt threat
* = leads team in this category
Team Stats
Points per game 77.0
Point allowed 69.2
Scoring margin +7.8
Field goal pct .434
FG% allowed .408
3-point FG pct .311
3pt FG% allowed .346
Free throw pct .724
Rebounds per game 40.3
Rebounds allowed 34.8
Rebounding margin +5.6
Assists per game 13.0
Turnovers per game 11.9
Turnovers forced 13.8
Turnover margin +1.9
Assist/turnover ratio 1.1
Steals per game 7.8
Blocks per game 3.7
Analysis: Ole Miss is coming off its best stretch of the season, winning 7 straight with 4 of those wins coming away from home. This included an 85-79 win at Memphis, which is a big rivalry for the Rebels. The 2 losses for Ole Miss earlier in the season both came in a neutral court setting, at Charleston, SC. The Seton Hall loss isn’t too bad as the Pirates are rated as a top 50 team on the season by most services, but that George Mason is definitely not looking good. George Mason is barely in the top 200. They’ve played a weak schedule up to this point, with only Seton Hall in the top 50, so they really could be undefeated. One might chalk up both of those losses to just a good team having a bad few days. They played 3 games in 4 days from November 19-22. It could also be blamed on Ole Miss still trying to figure out which line-up will be best for this particular team. The Rebels lost some key players from last season, including Jarvis Summers and LaDarius White, off a team that went to the NCAA-T and actually won a game over BYU. Ole Miss comes into this game rated #69 overall by KenPom and #58 by Sagarin. According to KenPom, they will only be the 6th best team UK has faced.
This Ole Miss team is centered around its do-everything senior guard Stefan Moody. He’s currently leading the team in scoring and assists. He’s also second in steals. Unfortunately for the Rebels, he’s also first in turnovers and he’s not terribly efficient in his scoring. He gave UK fits last season in a trip to Rupp Arena because our Cats just couldn’t keep up with him. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a similar game this time around, though our Cats are better equipped to guard him this time around, with Ulis, Murray, and Briscoe. He has taken more than twice as many shots (212) as any other teammate (101), but that’s probably the best for Ole Miss. He can pretty much get a shot off anytime he needs to, and he does so frequently. He shoots about 36% from 3pt range and he can be very streaky. He’s the kind of player that can beat you by himself if he gets it going.
Surrounding Moody is a veteran starting line-up, with 3 seniors and 2 juniors starting. In fact, 8 different players have started 3 or more games this season, and only one is not an upperclassman. In the backcourt with Moody, Ole Miss has started 2 other guards for much of the season. Jr Rasheed Brooks and Sr Martavious Newby are not nearly as athletic or as good scorers as Moody, but they have settled into their roles fairly well this season. Brooks is more a distributor of the basketball and a shooter- he’s second on the team in assists and in three point makes. He’s also their tallest guard, standing at 6-5. Newby is more defensive minded. The senior guard is leading the team in steals and he also rebounds well for a guard. Newby is a strong guard at 6-3 210 and he likes to mix it up. He reminds me a bit of Isaiah Briscoe with the toughness he plays with. Coming off the bench in the backcourt is Sam Finley. He’s a 6-2 junior who gives a breather to any of the guards and ends up playing about 16 minutes per game. He’s not a great shooter or scorer but is a decent defender.
After Moody, the scoring strength of this Ole Miss team may be in the frontcourt. The 6-9 233lb Sebastian Saiz was starting to come into his own as a sophomore and he’s continuing to improve as a junior. He has a good array of post moves and is strong on the offensive glass as well. He’s second on the team in scoring at 11.7 points per game and he’s leading the team in rebounding with 10.2 rebounds per game, so he’s averaging a double-double, and this is only playing 28.6 minutes per game. His frontcourt mate is Tomasz Gielo. Gielo is much more perimeter oriented than Saiz. He’s actually second on the team in 3pt makes and attempts, shooting 17-52 from 3 on the season. He’s a Polish-born player who is a grad transfer from Liberty University. He’s averaging 9.2 points per game in only 25 minutes per game. The reason those 2 starters aren’t getting more minutes is because the Rebels have a couple other forwards coming in off the bench. They have a 6-9 205 senior in Anthony Perez coming off the bench who is more perimeter oriented than a bruiser of any kind. They also have a 6-6 freshman named Marcanvis Hyman who may end up being pretty good by the time he leaves Ole Miss. He’s actually second on the team in rebounding in only 17 minutes per game.
This Ole Miss team worries me a little bit, primarily because of Moody and their strength on the interior. Moody is the kind of guy, as I said above, who can beat you all by himself when he gets it going, and it seems good players always come to play at Rupp Arena. Job #1 of Kentucky will be to slow down Moody. I say slow down because you’re just not going to stop him from scoring, but what UK needs to do is make him inefficient by forcing him to take a bunch of shots and waste a bunch of possessions to get his points. The other thing UK must do is rebound the ball. This Ole Miss team has 4 guys averaging 4.6 rebounds or more per game and Saiz is averaging a double-double. Giving this particular team second chances could be devastating. The reason their frontcourt worries me is the same reason UCLA gave UK trouble- they have a guy (Saiz) who likes to play with his back to the basket and they also have a guy (Tomasz) who likes to face and play on the perimeter. I’m betting we’re gonna see a lot of pick and roll, and we didn’t defend it well at UCLA.
Biggest weaknesses for Ole Miss:
1. They are not a good 3pt shooting team, coming in at only 31% as a team. Nobody shoots better than 35.9%
2. They are not a great defensive unit, coming in outside the top 100 in every major defensive category.
I expect a tough game in this one. It’s our first conference game and we are young. Ole Miss, on the other hand, is bringing a veteran group who nearly beat UK in Rupp a year ago. Do our guys know what it takes to win league games? League games are completely different, as we all know. My gut tells me that our guys are starting to get things figured out and our shots are starting to fall. And Ole Miss has played a very weak schedule to this point, so they may not be well prepared. But Ole Miss always plays our Cats tough in Rupp for some reason, so I expect this game to be tight for a while. In the end, I think our Cats will get it done at home.
Prediction: Kentucky 76 Ole Miss 68
Head Coach: Andy Kennedy 223-128 overall, 202-116 (.635) in his 10th season at Ole Miss
This year's record: 10-2 (3-0 away, 2-2 neutral)
Schedule
11/13/15 Northwestern St W 90-76
11/16/15 Georgia Southern W 82-72
11/19/15 vs George Mason L 62-68
11/20/15 vs Towson W 76-60
11/22/15 vs Seton Hall L 63-75
11/25/15 Georgia St W 68-59
11-28-15 at Bradley W 67-54
12/05/15 at Massachusetts W 74-64
12-12-15 at Southeast Missouri W 75-64
12/15/15 Louisiana Tech W 99-80
12/18/15 at Memphis W 85-79
12/22/15 Troy Wot 83-80
01/02/16 at Kentucky 7:00 pm EST, TV: SEC Network
Probable Starters (stats through 12 games)
F #11 Sebastian Saiz 6-9 233 Jr. 11.7pts, 10.2reb*, 1.3blks*, .286 3pt%
F #12 Tomasz Gielo 6-9 220 Sr. 9.2pts, 4.6reb, 1.4ast, .327 3pt%
G #14 Rasheed Brooks 6-5 192 Jr. 7.5pts, 1.8reb, 2.0ast, .350 3pt%
G #1 Martavious Newby 6-3 210 Sr. 6.1pts, 5.3reb, 1.9ast, 1.7stls*, .214 3pt%
G #42 Stefan Moody 5-10 179 Sr. 23.8pts*, 3.2reb, 4.3ast*, .359 3pt%*
Key Reserves
G #10 Sam Finley 6-2 179 Jr. 6.4pts, 2.1reb, .133 3pt%
F #13 Anthony Perez 6-9 205 Sr. 6.1pts, 3.9reb, 1.0ast, .250 3pt%
F #5 Marcanvis Hymon 6-6 207 Fr. 5.8pts, 5.8reb, no 3pt threat
* = leads team in this category
Team Stats
Points per game 77.0
Point allowed 69.2
Scoring margin +7.8
Field goal pct .434
FG% allowed .408
3-point FG pct .311
3pt FG% allowed .346
Free throw pct .724
Rebounds per game 40.3
Rebounds allowed 34.8
Rebounding margin +5.6
Assists per game 13.0
Turnovers per game 11.9
Turnovers forced 13.8
Turnover margin +1.9
Assist/turnover ratio 1.1
Steals per game 7.8
Blocks per game 3.7
Analysis: Ole Miss is coming off its best stretch of the season, winning 7 straight with 4 of those wins coming away from home. This included an 85-79 win at Memphis, which is a big rivalry for the Rebels. The 2 losses for Ole Miss earlier in the season both came in a neutral court setting, at Charleston, SC. The Seton Hall loss isn’t too bad as the Pirates are rated as a top 50 team on the season by most services, but that George Mason is definitely not looking good. George Mason is barely in the top 200. They’ve played a weak schedule up to this point, with only Seton Hall in the top 50, so they really could be undefeated. One might chalk up both of those losses to just a good team having a bad few days. They played 3 games in 4 days from November 19-22. It could also be blamed on Ole Miss still trying to figure out which line-up will be best for this particular team. The Rebels lost some key players from last season, including Jarvis Summers and LaDarius White, off a team that went to the NCAA-T and actually won a game over BYU. Ole Miss comes into this game rated #69 overall by KenPom and #58 by Sagarin. According to KenPom, they will only be the 6th best team UK has faced.
This Ole Miss team is centered around its do-everything senior guard Stefan Moody. He’s currently leading the team in scoring and assists. He’s also second in steals. Unfortunately for the Rebels, he’s also first in turnovers and he’s not terribly efficient in his scoring. He gave UK fits last season in a trip to Rupp Arena because our Cats just couldn’t keep up with him. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a similar game this time around, though our Cats are better equipped to guard him this time around, with Ulis, Murray, and Briscoe. He has taken more than twice as many shots (212) as any other teammate (101), but that’s probably the best for Ole Miss. He can pretty much get a shot off anytime he needs to, and he does so frequently. He shoots about 36% from 3pt range and he can be very streaky. He’s the kind of player that can beat you by himself if he gets it going.
Surrounding Moody is a veteran starting line-up, with 3 seniors and 2 juniors starting. In fact, 8 different players have started 3 or more games this season, and only one is not an upperclassman. In the backcourt with Moody, Ole Miss has started 2 other guards for much of the season. Jr Rasheed Brooks and Sr Martavious Newby are not nearly as athletic or as good scorers as Moody, but they have settled into their roles fairly well this season. Brooks is more a distributor of the basketball and a shooter- he’s second on the team in assists and in three point makes. He’s also their tallest guard, standing at 6-5. Newby is more defensive minded. The senior guard is leading the team in steals and he also rebounds well for a guard. Newby is a strong guard at 6-3 210 and he likes to mix it up. He reminds me a bit of Isaiah Briscoe with the toughness he plays with. Coming off the bench in the backcourt is Sam Finley. He’s a 6-2 junior who gives a breather to any of the guards and ends up playing about 16 minutes per game. He’s not a great shooter or scorer but is a decent defender.
After Moody, the scoring strength of this Ole Miss team may be in the frontcourt. The 6-9 233lb Sebastian Saiz was starting to come into his own as a sophomore and he’s continuing to improve as a junior. He has a good array of post moves and is strong on the offensive glass as well. He’s second on the team in scoring at 11.7 points per game and he’s leading the team in rebounding with 10.2 rebounds per game, so he’s averaging a double-double, and this is only playing 28.6 minutes per game. His frontcourt mate is Tomasz Gielo. Gielo is much more perimeter oriented than Saiz. He’s actually second on the team in 3pt makes and attempts, shooting 17-52 from 3 on the season. He’s a Polish-born player who is a grad transfer from Liberty University. He’s averaging 9.2 points per game in only 25 minutes per game. The reason those 2 starters aren’t getting more minutes is because the Rebels have a couple other forwards coming in off the bench. They have a 6-9 205 senior in Anthony Perez coming off the bench who is more perimeter oriented than a bruiser of any kind. They also have a 6-6 freshman named Marcanvis Hyman who may end up being pretty good by the time he leaves Ole Miss. He’s actually second on the team in rebounding in only 17 minutes per game.
This Ole Miss team worries me a little bit, primarily because of Moody and their strength on the interior. Moody is the kind of guy, as I said above, who can beat you all by himself when he gets it going, and it seems good players always come to play at Rupp Arena. Job #1 of Kentucky will be to slow down Moody. I say slow down because you’re just not going to stop him from scoring, but what UK needs to do is make him inefficient by forcing him to take a bunch of shots and waste a bunch of possessions to get his points. The other thing UK must do is rebound the ball. This Ole Miss team has 4 guys averaging 4.6 rebounds or more per game and Saiz is averaging a double-double. Giving this particular team second chances could be devastating. The reason their frontcourt worries me is the same reason UCLA gave UK trouble- they have a guy (Saiz) who likes to play with his back to the basket and they also have a guy (Tomasz) who likes to face and play on the perimeter. I’m betting we’re gonna see a lot of pick and roll, and we didn’t defend it well at UCLA.
Biggest weaknesses for Ole Miss:
1. They are not a good 3pt shooting team, coming in at only 31% as a team. Nobody shoots better than 35.9%
2. They are not a great defensive unit, coming in outside the top 100 in every major defensive category.
I expect a tough game in this one. It’s our first conference game and we are young. Ole Miss, on the other hand, is bringing a veteran group who nearly beat UK in Rupp a year ago. Do our guys know what it takes to win league games? League games are completely different, as we all know. My gut tells me that our guys are starting to get things figured out and our shots are starting to fall. And Ole Miss has played a very weak schedule to this point, so they may not be well prepared. But Ole Miss always plays our Cats tough in Rupp for some reason, so I expect this game to be tight for a while. In the end, I think our Cats will get it done at home.
Prediction: Kentucky 76 Ole Miss 68
