Louisville Cardinals
Conference: ACC
Head Coach: Rick Pitino [16th season at UofL: 401-133 (.750); As HC 755-261 (.743)]
Record: 10-1 (7-0 home, 1-0 away, 2-1 neutral)
Schedule
11/11/16 EVANSVILLE W 78-47
11/14/16 WILLIAM & MARY W 91-58
11/17/16 LONG BEACH STATE W 88-56
11/23/16 vs Old Dominion Wot 68-62
11/24/16 vs Wichita State W 62-52
11/25/16 vs Baylor L 63-66
11/30/16 PURDUE W 71-64
12/3/16 at Grand Canyon W 79-70
12/7/16 SOUTHERN ILLINOIS W 74-51
12/10/16 TEXAS SOUTHERN W 102-71
12/17/16 EASTERN KENTUCKY W 87-56
Game Information:
12/21/16 Kentucky at Louisville, 7:00 p.m. EST, TV: ESPN
Probable Starters
F #22 Deng Adel 6-7 200 So, 9.7pts, 4.6reb, 2.1ast, 1.0stl, .289 3fg
F #10 Jaylen Johnson 6-9 230 Jr, 9.5pts, 8.1reb, 1.2blks, 1-3 on the season from 3fg.
F #12 Mangok Mathiang 6-10 230 Sr, 6.8pts, 7.reb, 1.3blks, no 3pt threat
G #45 Donovan Mitchell 6-3 200 So, 11.7pts, 5.7reb, 2.4ast, 2.5stls, 1.8tos, .290 3fg
G #4 Quentin Snider 6-2 175 Jr, 11.0pts, 2.5reb, 3.8ast, .333 3fg
Key Reserves
F #0 V.J. King 6-6 190 Fr, 7.9pts, 2.8reb, .533 3fg
F #13 Ray Spalding 6-10 215 So, 7.3pts, 4.8reb, no 3pt threat
F #14 Anas Mahmoud 7-0 215 Jr, 5.5pts, 3.5reb, no 3pt threat
G #1 Tony Hicks 6-1 180 Sr, 3.9pts, 1.4reb, 1.6ast, .250 3fg
C #5 Matz Stockman 7-0 240 Jr, 2.6pts, 1.8reb, no 3pt threat
G #23 David Levitch 6-3 180 Sr, 2.5pts, 1.4reb, .545 3fg
G #30 Ryan McMahon 6-0 170 Fr, 2.3pts, .368 3fg (only plays 6.6 minutes)
Team Stats
Points per game 78.5
Points allowed 59.4
Scoring margin +19.1
Field goal pct .434
FG% allowed .359
3-point FG pct .329
3pt FG% allowed .287
Free throw pct .689
Rebounds per game 45.0
Rebounds allowed 35.7
Rebounding margin +9.3
Assists per game 14.9
Assists allowed 10.5
Turnovers per game 11.5
Turnovers forced 16.1
Turnover margin +4.6
Assist/turnover ratio 1.3
Steals per game 7.5
Blocks per game 7.2
KenPom Analysis
Best Stats
#1 in overall defensive efficiency in the nation
#2 in block %
#6 in effective fg% defense
#7 in 2pt% defense, allowing 39.7%
#20 in 3pt% defense, allowing 28.7%
Worst Stats
#246 in 3pt% (shooting 32.9%)
#227 in effective FG% (not efficient shooting)
#193 in 2pt% (shooting 48.3%)
#185 in FT% (shooting 68.9%)
#33 in overall offensive efficiency
Analysis
It’s time again for one of the greatest rivalries in all of college basketball, Kentucky versus Louisville, in the battle of the Bluegrass. It’s Big Brother versus little brother in what has become in recent years a very one-sided affair, in Kentucky’s favor. Although the games have mostly been very competitive since John Calipari arrived, UK has won 8 out of 9, with the only win for Louisville in the series coming on a last second shot at the Yum Center in a season when Louisville hooked itself a national championship and UK missed the tournament entirely. This season’s game pits two top 10 teams against each other, both coming in with only 1 loss on the season. Louisville comes in as the #1 defensive team in the nation while Kentucky comes in averaging 95.2 points per game, which is good for #3 in the nation. There is no question, Louisville will be the best defensive team Kentucky has faced and that Kentucky will be the best offensive team Louisville has faced.
When Louisville has the ball, their scoring is very balanced, but their best scorers are their 2 guards, Donovan Mitchell andQuentin Snider. Mitchell is a 6-3 shooting guard with great quickness and excellent athleticism. He is excellent in the open floor and is difficult to keep out of the lane. And when he has the opportunity he has the ability to finish above the rim. He is the best athlete on the team and the best at creating his own offense. He scores 11.7 points per game, although he’s not tremendously efficient, only shooting 37.5% from the floor overall and 29% from 3. He also leads the team in turnovers per game, but that is likely more a function of having to create offense late in shot clocks than carelessness. Their second leading scorer is point guard Quentin Snider, a 6-2 175lb junior who scores 11.0 points per game. Unfortunately, Snider is even less efficient than Mitchell, shooting only 32.2% from the floor. He does shoot the 3 a little better, at 33.3%. He leads the team in assists at 3.8 assists per game.
At small forward for the Cardinals, the third leading scorer is 6-7 200lb sophomore Deng Adel. Adel is a guy who has been fairly inconsistent on the season. He has had some good games and some bad games. He has had 6 double-digit scoring games, with a season high of 16, but he has also had some poor showings, like his 4 point, 1-9 performance against Baylor. He had a double-double against Southern Illinois but then turned around and had a 7 and 3 game against Eastern Kentucky. It all averages out to 9.7 points and 4.6 rebounds per game. The big man in the middle for Louisville is a guy UK fans know well, the 6-10 230lb senior forward Mangok Mathiang. He’s a big guy who patrols the middle, rebounds, and blocks shots. He’s primarily in the game for defensive purposes, though he can score around the goal a bit. He’s actually 5th in minutes played on the season but only 7th in scoring. He averages 6.8 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. He’s second in rebounding to Jaylen Johnson but he is the co-leader on the team in blocks with 1.3 per game. The power forward for UofL is Jaylen Johnson. He’s scoring 9.5 points per game and leading the team in rebounding with 8.1 per game. He also blocks 1.2 shots per game. He has improved over last season.
From the bench, Louisville brings in a bunch of guys. In fact, this Louisville team is similar to some other Pitino Cardinals teams in that they try to beat teams with numbers and fresh bodies running in and out. No starter plays more than 28.5 minutes per game. These bench guys are nearly as valuable to the Cardinals as those starters, especially the first 3 or4 here. UofL is big man heavy, as they have been now for several years. Forwards from the bench, in order of minutes played are V.J. King, Ray Spalding, and Anas Mahmoud. King is a wing forward who gives Adel a breather. He’s a 6-6 190 Freshman who scores 7.9pts and grabs 2.8reb. He’s also a reliable 3pt shooter, making 8 of 15 for 53.3%, which is actually the best percentage on the team. Ray Spalding is a 6-10 215lb So who plays mostly around the basket and scores 7.3pts and grabs 4.8reb. The next big man is a guy we know well, Anas Mahmoud, the 7ft Egyptian forward who plays some power forward and some center as needed. He’s scoring 5.5pts and grabbing 3.5reb. He missed 3 straight games due to injury but just returned for the Eastern KY game and played 14 minutes, scoring 9 points. The other big man we might see is Matz Stockman, a 7-0 240lb junior whose playing time has been limited much of the season. He benefited from Mahmoud’s injury with extra minutes, but he only played 4 minutes in the Cardinals’ last game when Anas returned.
The most important guard from the bench is Tony Hicks, the Penn graduate transfer who wanted to follow in other players’ footsteps by transferring in and playing immediately for the Cards. Unfortunately, that hasn’t materialized as yet. He’s only played 12.3 points per game while Mitchell and Snider have played the lion’s share of minutes. He’s playing 12.3 minutes and scoring 3.9 points per game and has been very inefficient shooting the ball, making 27.3% from the floor and 25% from 3 and dishing out about the same number of turnovers as assists. He could be a hero if he could make a couple shots against UK, though. He has the potential to score some points, averaging nearly 15 ppg as a sophomore and 13.2 as a junior with Penn. The other guards we might see are David Levitch, a 6-3 180lb Sr and 6-0 170lb Ryan McMahon who has only played 6.6 minutes per game.
The big question for everyone entering this game will be “How will UK’s high octane offense play against the nation’s #1 defense in Louisville?” That is definitely a question which will be debated by the talking heads, but I think the game will really be decided on the other end of the court. We know what we’re getting from UK’s offense and UofL’s defense. But my question is “How will UofL’s offense play against UK’s defense?” The question I have is whether or not Louisville will be able to score enough points to stay in this game. In recent games, the thing that has killed UK has been opposing teams’ players shooting lights out. UCLA and UNC shot the ball very well. But does Louisville have the personnel to score in one on one match-ups with UK. That’s the question. I’m sure Louisville will defend their butts off, but UK will score some points. The Cats average 95.2 points per game. Even if Louisville can hold the Cats to 75, can they score enough to win the game? Against Baylor, Louisville only managed 63 points. Against Wichita St they only managed 62, and against Purdue they made it to 71. Barring an unusual shooting night, I just don’t think they can break 70 against UK. Meanwhile, I think these Cats will be hard to hold below 75.
The X-factor in this game is the home court advantage for Louisville, with these Cats playing their first true road game. How will UK perform in a hostile environment? I take solace in the fact that the Cats have played away from Rupp against good competition several times this season, against Mich State, Arizona St, and North Carolina. I think UK having played in some big games will pay dividends in this one. KenPom predicts a 2 point win for Louisville, 80-78. I think he’s got UK’s score about right, but I just don’t see the Cards breaking 70.
Prediction: Kentucky 76 Louisville 68
Conference: ACC
Head Coach: Rick Pitino [16th season at UofL: 401-133 (.750); As HC 755-261 (.743)]
Record: 10-1 (7-0 home, 1-0 away, 2-1 neutral)
Schedule
11/11/16 EVANSVILLE W 78-47
11/14/16 WILLIAM & MARY W 91-58
11/17/16 LONG BEACH STATE W 88-56
11/23/16 vs Old Dominion Wot 68-62
11/24/16 vs Wichita State W 62-52
11/25/16 vs Baylor L 63-66
11/30/16 PURDUE W 71-64
12/3/16 at Grand Canyon W 79-70
12/7/16 SOUTHERN ILLINOIS W 74-51
12/10/16 TEXAS SOUTHERN W 102-71
12/17/16 EASTERN KENTUCKY W 87-56
Game Information:
12/21/16 Kentucky at Louisville, 7:00 p.m. EST, TV: ESPN
Probable Starters
F #22 Deng Adel 6-7 200 So, 9.7pts, 4.6reb, 2.1ast, 1.0stl, .289 3fg
F #10 Jaylen Johnson 6-9 230 Jr, 9.5pts, 8.1reb, 1.2blks, 1-3 on the season from 3fg.
F #12 Mangok Mathiang 6-10 230 Sr, 6.8pts, 7.reb, 1.3blks, no 3pt threat
G #45 Donovan Mitchell 6-3 200 So, 11.7pts, 5.7reb, 2.4ast, 2.5stls, 1.8tos, .290 3fg
G #4 Quentin Snider 6-2 175 Jr, 11.0pts, 2.5reb, 3.8ast, .333 3fg
Key Reserves
F #0 V.J. King 6-6 190 Fr, 7.9pts, 2.8reb, .533 3fg
F #13 Ray Spalding 6-10 215 So, 7.3pts, 4.8reb, no 3pt threat
F #14 Anas Mahmoud 7-0 215 Jr, 5.5pts, 3.5reb, no 3pt threat
G #1 Tony Hicks 6-1 180 Sr, 3.9pts, 1.4reb, 1.6ast, .250 3fg
C #5 Matz Stockman 7-0 240 Jr, 2.6pts, 1.8reb, no 3pt threat
G #23 David Levitch 6-3 180 Sr, 2.5pts, 1.4reb, .545 3fg
G #30 Ryan McMahon 6-0 170 Fr, 2.3pts, .368 3fg (only plays 6.6 minutes)
Team Stats
Points per game 78.5
Points allowed 59.4
Scoring margin +19.1
Field goal pct .434
FG% allowed .359
3-point FG pct .329
3pt FG% allowed .287
Free throw pct .689
Rebounds per game 45.0
Rebounds allowed 35.7
Rebounding margin +9.3
Assists per game 14.9
Assists allowed 10.5
Turnovers per game 11.5
Turnovers forced 16.1
Turnover margin +4.6
Assist/turnover ratio 1.3
Steals per game 7.5
Blocks per game 7.2
KenPom Analysis
Best Stats
#1 in overall defensive efficiency in the nation
#2 in block %
#6 in effective fg% defense
#7 in 2pt% defense, allowing 39.7%
#20 in 3pt% defense, allowing 28.7%
Worst Stats
#246 in 3pt% (shooting 32.9%)
#227 in effective FG% (not efficient shooting)
#193 in 2pt% (shooting 48.3%)
#185 in FT% (shooting 68.9%)
#33 in overall offensive efficiency
Analysis
It’s time again for one of the greatest rivalries in all of college basketball, Kentucky versus Louisville, in the battle of the Bluegrass. It’s Big Brother versus little brother in what has become in recent years a very one-sided affair, in Kentucky’s favor. Although the games have mostly been very competitive since John Calipari arrived, UK has won 8 out of 9, with the only win for Louisville in the series coming on a last second shot at the Yum Center in a season when Louisville hooked itself a national championship and UK missed the tournament entirely. This season’s game pits two top 10 teams against each other, both coming in with only 1 loss on the season. Louisville comes in as the #1 defensive team in the nation while Kentucky comes in averaging 95.2 points per game, which is good for #3 in the nation. There is no question, Louisville will be the best defensive team Kentucky has faced and that Kentucky will be the best offensive team Louisville has faced.
When Louisville has the ball, their scoring is very balanced, but their best scorers are their 2 guards, Donovan Mitchell andQuentin Snider. Mitchell is a 6-3 shooting guard with great quickness and excellent athleticism. He is excellent in the open floor and is difficult to keep out of the lane. And when he has the opportunity he has the ability to finish above the rim. He is the best athlete on the team and the best at creating his own offense. He scores 11.7 points per game, although he’s not tremendously efficient, only shooting 37.5% from the floor overall and 29% from 3. He also leads the team in turnovers per game, but that is likely more a function of having to create offense late in shot clocks than carelessness. Their second leading scorer is point guard Quentin Snider, a 6-2 175lb junior who scores 11.0 points per game. Unfortunately, Snider is even less efficient than Mitchell, shooting only 32.2% from the floor. He does shoot the 3 a little better, at 33.3%. He leads the team in assists at 3.8 assists per game.
At small forward for the Cardinals, the third leading scorer is 6-7 200lb sophomore Deng Adel. Adel is a guy who has been fairly inconsistent on the season. He has had some good games and some bad games. He has had 6 double-digit scoring games, with a season high of 16, but he has also had some poor showings, like his 4 point, 1-9 performance against Baylor. He had a double-double against Southern Illinois but then turned around and had a 7 and 3 game against Eastern Kentucky. It all averages out to 9.7 points and 4.6 rebounds per game. The big man in the middle for Louisville is a guy UK fans know well, the 6-10 230lb senior forward Mangok Mathiang. He’s a big guy who patrols the middle, rebounds, and blocks shots. He’s primarily in the game for defensive purposes, though he can score around the goal a bit. He’s actually 5th in minutes played on the season but only 7th in scoring. He averages 6.8 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. He’s second in rebounding to Jaylen Johnson but he is the co-leader on the team in blocks with 1.3 per game. The power forward for UofL is Jaylen Johnson. He’s scoring 9.5 points per game and leading the team in rebounding with 8.1 per game. He also blocks 1.2 shots per game. He has improved over last season.
From the bench, Louisville brings in a bunch of guys. In fact, this Louisville team is similar to some other Pitino Cardinals teams in that they try to beat teams with numbers and fresh bodies running in and out. No starter plays more than 28.5 minutes per game. These bench guys are nearly as valuable to the Cardinals as those starters, especially the first 3 or4 here. UofL is big man heavy, as they have been now for several years. Forwards from the bench, in order of minutes played are V.J. King, Ray Spalding, and Anas Mahmoud. King is a wing forward who gives Adel a breather. He’s a 6-6 190 Freshman who scores 7.9pts and grabs 2.8reb. He’s also a reliable 3pt shooter, making 8 of 15 for 53.3%, which is actually the best percentage on the team. Ray Spalding is a 6-10 215lb So who plays mostly around the basket and scores 7.3pts and grabs 4.8reb. The next big man is a guy we know well, Anas Mahmoud, the 7ft Egyptian forward who plays some power forward and some center as needed. He’s scoring 5.5pts and grabbing 3.5reb. He missed 3 straight games due to injury but just returned for the Eastern KY game and played 14 minutes, scoring 9 points. The other big man we might see is Matz Stockman, a 7-0 240lb junior whose playing time has been limited much of the season. He benefited from Mahmoud’s injury with extra minutes, but he only played 4 minutes in the Cardinals’ last game when Anas returned.
The most important guard from the bench is Tony Hicks, the Penn graduate transfer who wanted to follow in other players’ footsteps by transferring in and playing immediately for the Cards. Unfortunately, that hasn’t materialized as yet. He’s only played 12.3 points per game while Mitchell and Snider have played the lion’s share of minutes. He’s playing 12.3 minutes and scoring 3.9 points per game and has been very inefficient shooting the ball, making 27.3% from the floor and 25% from 3 and dishing out about the same number of turnovers as assists. He could be a hero if he could make a couple shots against UK, though. He has the potential to score some points, averaging nearly 15 ppg as a sophomore and 13.2 as a junior with Penn. The other guards we might see are David Levitch, a 6-3 180lb Sr and 6-0 170lb Ryan McMahon who has only played 6.6 minutes per game.
The big question for everyone entering this game will be “How will UK’s high octane offense play against the nation’s #1 defense in Louisville?” That is definitely a question which will be debated by the talking heads, but I think the game will really be decided on the other end of the court. We know what we’re getting from UK’s offense and UofL’s defense. But my question is “How will UofL’s offense play against UK’s defense?” The question I have is whether or not Louisville will be able to score enough points to stay in this game. In recent games, the thing that has killed UK has been opposing teams’ players shooting lights out. UCLA and UNC shot the ball very well. But does Louisville have the personnel to score in one on one match-ups with UK. That’s the question. I’m sure Louisville will defend their butts off, but UK will score some points. The Cats average 95.2 points per game. Even if Louisville can hold the Cats to 75, can they score enough to win the game? Against Baylor, Louisville only managed 63 points. Against Wichita St they only managed 62, and against Purdue they made it to 71. Barring an unusual shooting night, I just don’t think they can break 70 against UK. Meanwhile, I think these Cats will be hard to hold below 75.
The X-factor in this game is the home court advantage for Louisville, with these Cats playing their first true road game. How will UK perform in a hostile environment? I take solace in the fact that the Cats have played away from Rupp against good competition several times this season, against Mich State, Arizona St, and North Carolina. I think UK having played in some big games will pay dividends in this one. KenPom predicts a 2 point win for Louisville, 80-78. I think he’s got UK’s score about right, but I just don’t see the Cards breaking 70.
Prediction: Kentucky 76 Louisville 68
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