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Scouting Louisville

IL Wildcat

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Feb 20, 2003
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Louisville Cardinals
Conference: ACC
Head Coach: Rick Pitino [16th season at UofL: 401-133 (.750); As HC 755-261 (.743)]

Record: 10-1 (7-0 home, 1-0 away, 2-1 neutral)

Schedule
11/11/16 EVANSVILLE W 78-47
11/14/16 WILLIAM & MARY W 91-58
11/17/16 LONG BEACH STATE W 88-56
11/23/16 vs Old Dominion Wot 68-62
11/24/16 vs Wichita State W 62-52
11/25/16 vs Baylor L 63-66
11/30/16 PURDUE W 71-64
12/3/16 at Grand Canyon W 79-70
12/7/16 SOUTHERN ILLINOIS W 74-51
12/10/16 TEXAS SOUTHERN W 102-71
12/17/16 EASTERN KENTUCKY W 87-56

Game Information:
12/21/16 Kentucky at Louisville, 7:00 p.m. EST, TV: ESPN

Probable Starters
F #22 Deng Adel 6-7 200 So, 9.7pts, 4.6reb, 2.1ast, 1.0stl, .289 3fg
F #10 Jaylen Johnson 6-9 230 Jr, 9.5pts, 8.1reb, 1.2blks, 1-3 on the season from 3fg.
F #12 Mangok Mathiang 6-10 230 Sr, 6.8pts, 7.reb, 1.3blks, no 3pt threat
G #45 Donovan Mitchell 6-3 200 So, 11.7pts, 5.7reb, 2.4ast, 2.5stls, 1.8tos, .290 3fg
G #4 Quentin Snider 6-2 175 Jr, 11.0pts, 2.5reb, 3.8ast, .333 3fg

Key Reserves
F #0 V.J. King 6-6 190 Fr, 7.9pts, 2.8reb, .533 3fg
F #13 Ray Spalding 6-10 215 So, 7.3pts, 4.8reb, no 3pt threat
F #14 Anas Mahmoud 7-0 215 Jr, 5.5pts, 3.5reb, no 3pt threat
G #1 Tony Hicks 6-1 180 Sr, 3.9pts, 1.4reb, 1.6ast, .250 3fg
C #5 Matz Stockman 7-0 240 Jr, 2.6pts, 1.8reb, no 3pt threat
G #23 David Levitch 6-3 180 Sr, 2.5pts, 1.4reb, .545 3fg
G #30 Ryan McMahon 6-0 170 Fr, 2.3pts, .368 3fg (only plays 6.6 minutes)

Team Stats
Points per game 78.5
Points allowed 59.4
Scoring margin +19.1
Field goal pct .434
FG% allowed .359
3-point FG pct .329
3pt FG% allowed .287
Free throw pct .689
Rebounds per game 45.0
Rebounds allowed 35.7
Rebounding margin +9.3
Assists per game 14.9
Assists allowed 10.5
Turnovers per game 11.5
Turnovers forced 16.1
Turnover margin +4.6
Assist/turnover ratio 1.3
Steals per game 7.5
Blocks per game 7.2

KenPom Analysis
Best Stats

#1 in overall defensive efficiency in the nation
#2 in block %
#6 in effective fg% defense
#7 in 2pt% defense, allowing 39.7%
#20 in 3pt% defense, allowing 28.7%
Worst Stats
#246 in 3pt% (shooting 32.9%)
#227 in effective FG% (not efficient shooting)
#193 in 2pt% (shooting 48.3%)
#185 in FT% (shooting 68.9%)
#33 in overall offensive efficiency

Analysis
It’s time again for one of the greatest rivalries in all of college basketball, Kentucky versus Louisville, in the battle of the Bluegrass. It’s Big Brother versus little brother in what has become in recent years a very one-sided affair, in Kentucky’s favor. Although the games have mostly been very competitive since John Calipari arrived, UK has won 8 out of 9, with the only win for Louisville in the series coming on a last second shot at the Yum Center in a season when Louisville hooked itself a national championship and UK missed the tournament entirely. This season’s game pits two top 10 teams against each other, both coming in with only 1 loss on the season. Louisville comes in as the #1 defensive team in the nation while Kentucky comes in averaging 95.2 points per game, which is good for #3 in the nation. There is no question, Louisville will be the best defensive team Kentucky has faced and that Kentucky will be the best offensive team Louisville has faced.

When Louisville has the ball, their scoring is very balanced, but their best scorers are their 2 guards, Donovan Mitchell andQuentin Snider. Mitchell is a 6-3 shooting guard with great quickness and excellent athleticism. He is excellent in the open floor and is difficult to keep out of the lane. And when he has the opportunity he has the ability to finish above the rim. He is the best athlete on the team and the best at creating his own offense. He scores 11.7 points per game, although he’s not tremendously efficient, only shooting 37.5% from the floor overall and 29% from 3. He also leads the team in turnovers per game, but that is likely more a function of having to create offense late in shot clocks than carelessness. Their second leading scorer is point guard Quentin Snider, a 6-2 175lb junior who scores 11.0 points per game. Unfortunately, Snider is even less efficient than Mitchell, shooting only 32.2% from the floor. He does shoot the 3 a little better, at 33.3%. He leads the team in assists at 3.8 assists per game.

At small forward for the Cardinals, the third leading scorer is 6-7 200lb sophomore Deng Adel. Adel is a guy who has been fairly inconsistent on the season. He has had some good games and some bad games. He has had 6 double-digit scoring games, with a season high of 16, but he has also had some poor showings, like his 4 point, 1-9 performance against Baylor. He had a double-double against Southern Illinois but then turned around and had a 7 and 3 game against Eastern Kentucky. It all averages out to 9.7 points and 4.6 rebounds per game. The big man in the middle for Louisville is a guy UK fans know well, the 6-10 230lb senior forward Mangok Mathiang. He’s a big guy who patrols the middle, rebounds, and blocks shots. He’s primarily in the game for defensive purposes, though he can score around the goal a bit. He’s actually 5th in minutes played on the season but only 7th in scoring. He averages 6.8 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. He’s second in rebounding to Jaylen Johnson but he is the co-leader on the team in blocks with 1.3 per game. The power forward for UofL is Jaylen Johnson. He’s scoring 9.5 points per game and leading the team in rebounding with 8.1 per game. He also blocks 1.2 shots per game. He has improved over last season.

From the bench, Louisville brings in a bunch of guys. In fact, this Louisville team is similar to some other Pitino Cardinals teams in that they try to beat teams with numbers and fresh bodies running in and out. No starter plays more than 28.5 minutes per game. These bench guys are nearly as valuable to the Cardinals as those starters, especially the first 3 or4 here. UofL is big man heavy, as they have been now for several years. Forwards from the bench, in order of minutes played are V.J. King, Ray Spalding, and Anas Mahmoud. King is a wing forward who gives Adel a breather. He’s a 6-6 190 Freshman who scores 7.9pts and grabs 2.8reb. He’s also a reliable 3pt shooter, making 8 of 15 for 53.3%, which is actually the best percentage on the team. Ray Spalding is a 6-10 215lb So who plays mostly around the basket and scores 7.3pts and grabs 4.8reb. The next big man is a guy we know well, Anas Mahmoud, the 7ft Egyptian forward who plays some power forward and some center as needed. He’s scoring 5.5pts and grabbing 3.5reb. He missed 3 straight games due to injury but just returned for the Eastern KY game and played 14 minutes, scoring 9 points. The other big man we might see is Matz Stockman, a 7-0 240lb junior whose playing time has been limited much of the season. He benefited from Mahmoud’s injury with extra minutes, but he only played 4 minutes in the Cardinals’ last game when Anas returned.

The most important guard from the bench is Tony Hicks, the Penn graduate transfer who wanted to follow in other players’ footsteps by transferring in and playing immediately for the Cards. Unfortunately, that hasn’t materialized as yet. He’s only played 12.3 points per game while Mitchell and Snider have played the lion’s share of minutes. He’s playing 12.3 minutes and scoring 3.9 points per game and has been very inefficient shooting the ball, making 27.3% from the floor and 25% from 3 and dishing out about the same number of turnovers as assists. He could be a hero if he could make a couple shots against UK, though. He has the potential to score some points, averaging nearly 15 ppg as a sophomore and 13.2 as a junior with Penn. The other guards we might see are David Levitch, a 6-3 180lb Sr and 6-0 170lb Ryan McMahon who has only played 6.6 minutes per game.

The big question for everyone entering this game will be “How will UK’s high octane offense play against the nation’s #1 defense in Louisville?” That is definitely a question which will be debated by the talking heads, but I think the game will really be decided on the other end of the court. We know what we’re getting from UK’s offense and UofL’s defense. But my question is “How will UofL’s offense play against UK’s defense?” The question I have is whether or not Louisville will be able to score enough points to stay in this game. In recent games, the thing that has killed UK has been opposing teams’ players shooting lights out. UCLA and UNC shot the ball very well. But does Louisville have the personnel to score in one on one match-ups with UK. That’s the question. I’m sure Louisville will defend their butts off, but UK will score some points. The Cats average 95.2 points per game. Even if Louisville can hold the Cats to 75, can they score enough to win the game? Against Baylor, Louisville only managed 63 points. Against Wichita St they only managed 62, and against Purdue they made it to 71. Barring an unusual shooting night, I just don’t think they can break 70 against UK. Meanwhile, I think these Cats will be hard to hold below 75.

The X-factor in this game is the home court advantage for Louisville, with these Cats playing their first true road game. How will UK perform in a hostile environment? I take solace in the fact that the Cats have played away from Rupp against good competition several times this season, against Mich State, Arizona St, and North Carolina. I think UK having played in some big games will pay dividends in this one. KenPom predicts a 2 point win for Louisville, 80-78. I think he’s got UK’s score about right, but I just don’t see the Cards breaking 70.

Prediction: Kentucky 76 Louisville 68
 
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Louisville Cardinals
Conference: ACC
Head Coach: Rick Pitino [16th season at UofL: 401-133 (.750); As HC 755-261 (.743)]

Record: 10-1 (7-0 home, 1-0 away, 2-1 neutral)

Schedule
11/11/16 EVANSVILLE W 78-47
11/14/16 WILLIAM & MARY W 91-58
11/17/16 LONG BEACH STATE W 88-56
11/23/16 vs Old Dominion Wot 68-62
11/24/16 vs Wichita State W 62-52
11/25/16 vs Baylor L 63-66
11/30/16 PURDUE W 71-64
12/3/16 at Grand Canyon W 79-70
12/7/16 SOUTHERN ILLINOIS W 74-51
12/10/16 TEXAS SOUTHERN W 102-71
12/17/16 EASTERN KENTUCKY W 87-56

Game Information:
12/21/16 Kentucky at Louisville, 7:00 p.m. EST, TV: ESPN

Probable Starters
F #22 Deng Adel 6-7 200 So, 9.7pts, 4.6reb, 2.1ast, 1.0stl, .289 3fg
F #10 Jaylen Johnson 6-9 230 Jr, 9.5pts, 8.1reb, 1.2blks, 1-3 on the season from 3fg.
F #12 Mangok Mathiang 6-10 230 Sr, 6.8pts, 7.reb, 1.3blks, no 3pt threat
G #45 Donovan Mitchell 6-3 200 So, 11.7pts, 5.7reb, 2.4ast, 2.5stls, 1.8tos, .290 3fg
G #4 Quentin Snider 6-2 175 Jr, 11.0pts, 2.5reb, 3.8ast, .333 3fg

Key Reserves
F #0 V.J. King 6-6 190 Fr, 7.9pts, 2.8reb, .533 3fg
F #13 Ray Spalding 6-10 215 So, 7.3pts, 4.8reb, no 3pt threat
F #14 Anas Mahmoud 7-0 215 Jr, 5.5pts, 3.5reb, no 3pt threat
G #1 Tony Hicks 6-1 180 Sr, 3.9pts, 1.4reb, 1.6ast, .250 3fg
C #5 Matz Stockman 7-0 240 Jr, 2.6pts, 1.8reb, no 3pt threat
G #23 David Levitch 6-3 180 Sr, 2.5pts, 1.4reb, .545 3fg
G #30 Ryan McMahon 6-0 170 Fr, 2.3pts, .368 3fg (only plays 6.6 minutes)

Team Stats
Points per game 78.5
Points allowed 59.4
Scoring margin +19.1
Field goal pct .434
FG% allowed .359
3-point FG pct .329
3pt FG% allowed .287
Free throw pct .689
Rebounds per game 45.0
Rebounds allowed 35.7
Rebounding margin +9.3
Assists per game 14.9
Assists allowed 10.5
Turnovers per game 11.5
Turnovers forced 16.1
Turnover margin +4.6
Assist/turnover ratio 1.3
Steals per game 7.5
Blocks per game 7.2

KenPom Analysis
Best Stats

#1 in overall defensive efficiency in the nation
#2 in block %
#6 in effective fg% defense
#7 in 2pt% defense, allowing 39.7%
#20 in 3pt% defense, allowing 28.7%
Worst Stats
#246 in 3pt% (shooting 32.9%)
#227 in effective FG% (not efficient shooting)
#193 in 2pt% (shooting 48.3%)
#185 in FT% (shooting 68.9%)
#33 in overall offensive efficiency

Analysis
It’s time again for one of the greatest rivalries in all of college basketball, Kentucky versus Louisville, in the battle of the Bluegrass. It’s Big Brother versus little brother in what has become in recent years a very one-sided affair, in Kentucky’s favor. Although the games have mostly been very competitive since John Calipari arrived, UK has won 8 out of 9, with the only win for Louisville in the series coming on a last second shot at the Yum Center in a season when Louisville hooked itself a national championship and UK missed the tournament entirely. This season’s game pits two top 10 teams against each other, both coming in with only 1 loss on the season. Louisville comes in as the #1 defensive team in the nation while Kentucky comes in averaging 95.2 points per game, which is good for #3 in the nation. There is no question, Louisville will be the best defensive team Kentucky has faced and that Kentucky will be the best offensive team Louisville has faced.

When Louisville has the ball, their scoring is very balanced, but their best scorers are their 2 guards, Donovan Mitchell andQuentin Snider. Mitchell is a 6-3 shooting guard with great quickness and excellent athleticism. He is excellent in the open floor and is difficult to keep out of the lane. And when he has the opportunity he has the ability to finish above the rim. He is the best athlete on the team and the best at creating his own offense. He scores 11.7 points per game, although he’s not tremendously efficient, only shooting 37.5% from the floor overall and 29% from 3. He also leads the team in turnovers per game, but that is likely more a function of having to create offense late in shot clocks than carelessness. Their second leading scorer is point guard Quentin Snider, a 6-2 175lb junior who scores 11.0 points per game. Unfortunately, Snider is even less efficient than Mitchell, shooting only 32.2% from the floor. He does shoot the 3 a little better, at 33.3%. He leads the team in assists at 3.8 assists per game.

At small forward for the Cardinals, the third leading scorer is 6-7 200lb sophomore Deng Adel. Adel is a guy who has been fairly inconsistent on the season. He has had some good games and some bad games. He has had 6 double-digit scoring games, with a season high of 16, but he has also had some poor showings, like his 4 point, 1-9 performance against Baylor. He had a double-double against Southern Illinois but then turned around and had a 7 and 3 game against Eastern Kentucky. It all averages out to 9.7 points and 4.6 rebounds per game. The big man in the middle for Louisville is a guy UK fans know well, the 6-10 230lb senior forward Mangok Mathiang. He’s a big guy who patrols the middle, rebounds, and blocks shots. He’s primarily in the game for defensive purposes, though he can score around the goal a bit. He’s actually 5th in minutes played on the season but only 7th in scoring. He averages 6.8 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. He’s second in rebounding to Jaylen Johnson but he is the co-leader on the team in blocks with 1.3 per game. The power forward for UofL is Jaylen Johnson. He’s scoring 9.5 points per game and leading the team in rebounding with 8.1 per game. He also blocks 1.2 shots per game. He has improved over last season.

From the bench, Louisville brings in a bunch of guys. In fact, this Louisville team is similar to some other Pitino Cardinals teams in that they try to beat teams with numbers and fresh bodies running in and out. No starter plays more than 28.5 minutes per game. These bench guys are nearly as valuable to the Cardinals as those starters, especially the first 3 or4 here. UofL is big man heavy, as they have been now for several years. Forwards from the bench, in order of minutes played are V.J. King, Ray Spalding, and Anas Mahmoud. King is a wing forward who gives Adel a breather. He’s a 6-6 190 Freshman who scores 7.9pts and grabs 2.8reb. He’s also a reliable 3pt shooter, making 8 of 15 for 53.3%, which is actually the best percentage on the team. After King, 2 power forward types get the next most minutes. Ray Spalding is a 6-10 215lb So who plays mostly around the basket and scores 7.3pts and grabs 4.8reb. The next big man is a guy we know well, Anas Mahmoud, the 7ft Egyptian forward who plays some power forward and some center as needed. He’s scoring 5.5pts and grabbing 3.5reb. He missed 3 straight games due to injury but just returned for the Eastern KY game and played 14 minutes, scoring 9 points. The other big man we might see is Matz Stockman, a 7-0 240lb junior whose playing time has been limited much of the season. He benefited from Mahmoud’s injury with extra minutes, but he only played 4 minutes in the Cardinals’ last game when Anas returned.

The most important guard from the bench is Tony Hicks, the Penn graduate transfer who wanted to follow in other players’ footsteps by transferring in and playing immediately for the Cards. Unfortunately, that hasn’t materialized as yet. He’s only played 12.3 points per game while Mitchell and Snider have played the lion’s share of minutes. He’s playing 12.3 minutes and scoring 3.9 points per game and has been very inefficient shooting the ball, making 27.3% from the floor and 25% from 3 and dishing out about the same number of turnovers as assists. He could be a hero if he could make a couple shots against UK, though. He has the potential to score some points, averaging nearly 15 ppg as a sophomore and 13.2 as a junior with Penn. The other guards we might see are David Levitch, a 6-3 180lb Sr and 6-0 170lb Ryan McMahon who has only played 6.6 minutes per game.

The big question for everyone entering this game will be “How will UK’s high octane offense play against the nation’s #1 defense in Louisville?” That is definitely a question which will be debated by the talking heads, but I think the game will really be decided on the other end of the court. We know what we’re getting from UK’s offense and UofL’s defense. But my question is “How will UofL’s offense play against UK’s defense?” The question I have is whether or not Louisville will be able to score enough points to stay in this game. In recent games, the thing that has killed UK has been opposing teams’ players shooting lights out. UCLA and UNC shot the ball very well. But does Louisville have the personnel to score in one on one match-ups with UK. That’s the question. I’m sure Louisville will defend their butts off, but UK will score some points. The Cats average 95.2 points per game. Even if Louisville can hold the Cats to 75, can they score enough to win the game? Against Baylor, Louisville only managed 63 points. Against Wichita St they only managed 62, and against Purdue they made it to 71. Barring an unusual shooting night, I just don’t think they can break 70 against UK. Meanwhile, I think these Cats will be hard to hold below 75.

The X-factor in this game is the home court advantage for Louisville, with these Cats playing their first true road game. How will UK perform in

Prediction: Kentucky 76 Louisville 68
Ken needs to work on his algorithm. He's out of his mind. 85-68 is more likely this year. They can't score.
 
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Great write up. I think our reaction to UL's physical defense will be the key aspect of the game. They will try to force us into half court and they have the fouls to do it.

If we are successful, it will send a lot of coaches off to scratch their heads as to what might work against the cats. In that sense, I think it could be a rather strategic game. If we win, good. Lose and everybody will try to take the air out of the ball.
 
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Ken needs to work on his algorithm. He's out of his mind. 85-68 is more likely this year. They can't score.
Yes, I think the algorithm is skewed based on the UCLA and UNC games. The numbers seem to be assuming that Louisville has guys who can shoot like UNC and UCLA. But they just don't have that kind of personnel. As I mentioned above, their 2 tops scorers are very inefficient. They must rely on forcing turnovers to create offense, but the Cats just don't turn it over.
 
Great write up. I think our reaction to UL's physical defense will be the key aspect of the game. They will try to force us into half court and they have the fouls to do it.

If we are successful, it will send a lot of coaches off to scratch their heads as to what might work against the cats. In that sense, I think it could be a rather strategic game. If we win, good. Lose and everybody will try to take the air out of the ball.
I agree. This is a big game for our Cats. Though Rick said he's not going to slow the game down, that's exactly what I expect him to do. For that reason, this game is critical.
 
Biggest concern I have is foul trouble for Fox or Bam. If those two play their normal minutes, UK wins.

Fox is incredible at running the team.
We have to have Bam rebounding.
(I do think Isaac can be effective v the Card bigs - won't be overmatched athletically)

Agree our D stats aren't as good because we played perhaps the 2 best Os in the country.
 
I know some of you haven't read this sentence...

"Although the games have mostly been very competitive since John Calipari arrived, UK has won 8 out of 9, with the only win for Louisville in the series coming on a last second shot at the YumCenter in a season when Louisville hooked itself a national championship and UK missed the tournament entirely."

I had to get that scandal in there somewhere. :smiley:
 
Good scouting report as usual. If you look at UL's schedule they have played a weak schedule except for Baylor & Purdue. They will have a hard time with Monk, Fox & Briscoe. UK by 10 or more. Thanks IL Wildcat.
 
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I know some of you haven't read this sentence...

"Although the games have mostly been very competitive since John Calipari arrived, UK has won 8 out of 9, with the only win for Louisville in the series coming on a last second shot at the YumCenter in a season when Louisville hooked itself a national championship and UK missed the tournament entirely."

I had to get that scandal in there somewhere. :smiley:

Yes, the banner needs to be vacated!
 
I have no reason to believe this won't be like all the other games in this history of late

It'll be a close game and we'll be on the winning side lol
 
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Great breakdown once again daddyo. Winning 9 out of 10 has a nice ring to it! I feel our guards are going to have a field day after they break a sweat. Willis and Dom better show us some of that Ky boy pizazz! This is the game for it...
 
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Thanks, IL. These are always great and I think this one is even better than usual!

My own keys to the game are Humph and Willis.

Both UCLA and UNC got fat off driving big guys at us down the lane. While I do respect the talent of UL's big men, I don't see them playing that way. I see them generally getting their points off garbage and post game. I think that's a style Humphries can defend against with some success, and Willis may even be able to get blocks against it at least enough to stay in the game.

Here's to a safe and fun total annihilation of all that is Louisville. [banana]
 
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Thanks for another great analysis, as usual. I agree with you that this is a difficult game to try to pick and especially because of how UL likes to mug on defense. Refs could play a major role in the outcome of this one if they allow the Cards to get away with that sort of stuff.

I know everyone says UL can't score and won't be able to keep up with UK in that area but I look at our defense this year and think that maybe our defense is so weak, at this moment, that it will pick up UL's offense just a bit. We can't seem to stop other teams from scoring and have to rely on outscoring them to win. Worked against UNC but not against UCLA. Yes, I know UL is not like either of those teams but their mugging style defense could keep the score much lower and they could get enough to win a tight game. Just saying. This game seems very difficult to pick for me and then I look at what MdWildcat55 suggested above for UL's motivation and see what could be a very tough game for our young guys on the road. I'm still favoring UK right now but it wouldn't surprise me to see UL finally get a rare win against us this early in the season.
 
Thanks for a useful analysis.

I find this a really hard game to predict. The trap is to look at the UNC and even UCLA games and think there is no way Louisville can score enough to win.

But the game won't look anything like those games. It'll be ugly, grinding, bruising and with a pace that may not favor Kentucky's strengths.

Given the intangibles of it being UK's first true road game (Cal's young teams are like 1-6 in those) Louisville's obsessive need to get a win in the series and the psychology of the youthful Cats coming off a huge emotional high, I could see UK falling behind by double digits early and needing to claw away at that defense all day. Hope I am wrong.

Well 2-5 but close enough. 2 of Cal's better teams have those 2 wins (2010 and 2015) while 2012 lost on a miracle to an IU team that is MUCH BETTER than this year's UL team. I just look at the matchups...this is a terrible one for UL. The past means little when you factor in the matchups and the talent level of the teams.
 
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UL will do all it can to ugly up the game and stay int he 60's. They cannot and will not even try to run with us.

FT shooting might be key. We have been bad lately from there.
UL has 4 big guys to throw in there and give up fouls. We do not.
They play great defense and not so great offense. We are just the opposite. Something has to give.

I hope a bunch of Blue sneaks in YUM.

Cats by 7.
 
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UL will do all it can to ugly up the game and stay int he 60's. They cannot and will not even try to run with us.

FT shooting might be key. We have been bad lately from there.
UL has 4 big guys to throw in there and give up fouls. We do not.
They play great defense and not so great offense. We are just the opposite. Something has to give.

I hope a bunch of Blue sneaks in YUM.

Cats by 7.

Bam, Hump, Gabriel, Willis and SKJ are all big guys that have 5 fouls.
 
No.

Gabriel and Willis play the 4. SKJ doesn't even play. We have 2 players at the 5. They have 4. Just need to stay out of foul trouble and we're golden.

Well I interpet "big guys" as the 4 and 5 position. My apologies. And they must have 4 ****ty players at the 5 position if they play 4 of them.
 
Well I interpet "big guys" as the 4 and 5 position. My apologies. And they must have 4 ****ty players at the 5 position if they play 4 of them.

They are serviceable. None of them are great. But they all defend. Of course, with UL's schedule so far, they have been defending against hyphenated teams.
 
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They are serviceable. None of them are great. But they all defend. Of course, with UL's schedule so far, they have been defending against hyphenated teams.

How do you even play 4 guys at the 5 in a game? Do they each play 10 mins? Or do they play two 5's at once with one being the "4"? I must admit I know little about UL aas they are an irrelevant program to me and I only watched the 2nd half against Baylor for them so far this year.

OP is going to be like "read my scouting report more closely!" lol.
 
Pitino plays a ton of people. Plays the whole bench regardless of the score. Has to since they hack and slap so much.
 
Pitino plays a ton of people. Plays the whole bench regardless of the score. Has to since they hack and slap so much.

Makes sense. Playing inferior players for 40 minutes against superior players won't work well though IMO.
 
Coming off the UNC game and UL home court could be issues that keep this one close and might cost us a win.I think we are a bad match-up for UL unless they can control the tempo and shoot much better than they have so far this season.

They have played Purdue and Baylor (two good teams) but not much else.In terms of coach,team and school this means more to them than it does us(because they haven't won one lately)so I expect they will be as focused as Rick can get them.

I think it comes down to what Bam,Hump,Gabriel and Willis can give us.We have the advantage with Monk,Fox and Briscoe. There always seems to be an x factor guy come out of the woodwork in this game,it could be SKJ,Hawkins(again) or Mulder(if he makes it off the bench)

I don't really have a good feel for how I think this one will play out.We could win by double digits(there is enough talent disparity for that to happen)or we could get beat(there are enough external factors for that to happen also)
 
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Thanks for the excellent analysis once again IL Wildcat.

The recent history of this series seems to be that some unexpected UK player puts in an incredible performance and gives UK the W. Briscoe didn't play against UL last year but he could have a big game this year. The Cards will focus their efforts on stopping Fox and Monk and should give Briscoe a chance to do his thing. UK 78 UL 66.
 
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Have to remember that someone odd will have a big game. Hawkins from last year, Jorts and Woo. I say we get a big game out of Willis.
 
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in the past UL would have a quick guard that was always a hard cover. i'm not sure they have that this year. snider is more of a pull/spot up guy. mitchell isnt having the season many projected, adel isnt going to blow by you. and all 3 shoot less than 40% from the field. all could have a good game i guess but i do think all 3 should be guarded fairly well by briscoe/monk/fox. their best offense might be offensive rebounding/putbacks. but if we rebound like we did against unc, we should be fine.

i do think willis/gab have an interesting match up because that could/should pull out UL's four. Willis HAS to take shots though.

UK just needs to be strong/good with the ball. attack, the whistles will be there.
 
in the past UL would have a quick guard that was always a hard cover. i'm not sure they have that this year. snider is more of a pull/spot up guy. mitchell isnt having the season many projected, adel isnt going to blow by you. and all 3 shoot less than 40% from the field. all could have a good game i guess but i do think all 3 should be guarded fairly well by briscoe/monk/fox. their best offense might be offensive rebounding/putbacks. but if we rebound like we did against unc, we should be fine.

i do think willis/gab have an interesting match up because that could/should pull out UL's four. Willis HAS to take shots though.

UK just needs to be strong/good with the ball. attack, the whistles will be there.
Agreed BostonCat. There is not a dominant offensive player on their team. And that's the way they've stayed with the Cats in recent years. For a while there it was Russ Smith and Luke Hancock, and then it was Rozier and Harrell, and even Chris Jones. Last season it was transfers Damion Lee and Trey Lewis. But this season, they just don't have a guy who can take over a game. They can't create offense very well, and they will struggle to create against UK. They have to make plays for each other, and they score a lot on garbage buckets around the rim. If the Cats take care of the ball and rebound like they did against UNC, I think this should be a win.

Thinking about the 2 teams who have given UK the most trouble (UCLA and UNC), the problem has come at the 4 spot mostly. UCLA had TJ Leaf go off on the Cats because we struggled to defend a mobile big man who can shoot and score in bunches. UNC had Justin Jackson and then the guy playing their 4 spot, whether it was Hicks or Maye, gave us trouble too. But when you look at UofL, you're talking about Deng Adel and Jaylen Johnson who are the most likely candidates to cause UK problems. Jaylen Johnson, against Louisville's top 4 opponents, scored 6,1,10, and 6. That's 5.8 points per game. Deng Adel, against their top 4 opponents, scored 5,11,4, and 9. That's 7.3 points per game. These guys just aren't big scorers.
 
Agreed BostonCat. There is not a dominant offensive player on their team. And that's the way they've stayed with the Cats in recent years. For a while there it was Russ Smith and Luke Hancock, and then it was Rozier and Harrell, and even Chris Jones. Last season it was transfers Damion Lee and Trey Lewis. But this season, they just don't have a guy who can take over a game. They can't create offense very well, and they will struggle to create against UK. They have to make plays for each other, and they score a lot on garbage buckets around the rim. If the Cats take care of the ball and rebound like they did against UNC, I think this should be a win.

Thinking about the 2 teams who have given UK the most trouble (UCLA and UNC), the problem has come at the 4 spot mostly. UCLA had TJ Leaf go off on the Cats because we struggled to defend a mobile big man who can shoot and score in bunches. UNC had Justin Jackson and then the guy playing their 4 spot, whether it was Hicks or Maye, gave us trouble too. But when you look at UofL, you're talking about Deng Adel and Jaylen Johnson who are the most likely candidates to cause UK problems. Jaylen Johnson, against Louisville's top 4 opponents, scored 6,1,10, and 6. That's 5.8 points per game. Deng Adel, against their top 4 opponents, scored 5,11,4, and 9. That's 7.3 points per game. These guys just aren't big scorers.
That is the thing about this game,unless UL finds a way to score more than usual or we somehow score less than usual I don't see how they match our offense.If their defense is all it is cracked up to be then maybe,but that is a big question.The external factors( possible letdown for us and venue) play in their favor. I don't see Rick playing a half court game particularly if they don't shoot well early because if we get the ball off the board we are going to the other end in a hurry.If we score in transition and get up early they will have to play our tempo to try and catch up or stay with us.

All this goes out the window if the refs turn it into a foul fest and the tempo is slowed down that way. I look for Bam to be in foul trouble early.I will be surprised if both sides don't lose at least 2 guys to fouls by games end.

I think the game will have to take on a "wow didn't see that coming" situation for UL to win.It is never a good idea to underestimate a team like UL on their home court.
 
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has someone from ul posted their annual player vs player comparison yet?

i'm looking forward to seeing snider > fox, mitchell and monk is a push type of analysis.
 
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