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Scouting Kansas

IL Wildcat

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Feb 20, 2003
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Kansas Jayhawks
Head Coach: Bill Self 575-187 (.754), 368-82 (.818) in 13th season at Kansas

Current Record: 16-4, 5-3 Big 12, 11-0 home
Schedule
11/13/15 NORTHERN COLO. W 109-72
!11/17/15 vs Michigan State L 73-79
#11/23/15 vs Chaminade W 123-72
#11/24/15 vs UCLA W 92-73
#11/25/15 vs Vanderbilt W 70-63
12/01/15 LOYOLA MARYLAND W 94-61
12/05/15 HARVARD W 75-69
12/09/15 HOLY CROSS W 92-59
12/12/15 OREGON STATE W 82-67
12/19/15 MONTANA W 88-46
12/22/15 at San Diego State W 70-57
12/29/15 UC IRVINE W 78-53
* 01/02/16 BAYLOR W 102-74
* 01/04/16 OKLAHOMA Wo3 109-106
* 01/09/16 at Texas Tech W 69-59
* 01/12/16 at West Virginia L 63-74
* 01/16/16 TCU W 70-63
* 01/19/16 at Oklahoma State L 67-86
* 01/23/16 TEXAS W 76-67
* 01/25/16 at Iowa State L 72-85
* - Big 12 Conference game
! - State Farm Champions Classic (Chicago, IL - United Center)
# - Maui Invitational (Lahaina, HI - Lahina Civic Center)

Game Information:
01/30/16 Kentucky at Kansas, Lawrence, KS, Allen Fieldhouse, 7:00 pm EST, TV: ESPN

Probable Starters
F #34 Perry Ellis 6-8 225 Sr, 16.7pts, 6.6reb, 1.2ast, .455 3pt%
F #33 Landen Lucas 6-10 240 Jr, 4.0pts, 5.2reb, no 3pt threat
G #1 Wayne Selden Jr. 6-5 230 Jr, 14.6pts, 3.4reb, 2.7ast, .467 3pt%
G #0 Frank Mason III 5-11 185 Jr, 13.4pts, 4.9reb, 4.8ast, 1.6stls, .390 3pt%
G #4 Devonte' Graham 6-2 175 So, 10.5pts, 3.0reb, 3.7ast, 1.4stls, .427 3pt%

Key Reserves
G #14 Brannen Greene 6-7 215 Jr, 6.8pts, 2.4reb, 1.0ast, .541 3pt%
G #10 Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk 6-8 195 So, 5.7pts, 1.3reb, .328 3pt%
F #15 Carlton Bragg Jr. 6-9 220 Fr, 4.6pts, 2.8reb, .500 3pt%
F #13 Cheick Diallo 6-9 218 Fr, 4.4pts, 2.7reb, no 3pt threat
F #42 Hunter Mickelson 6-10 245 Sr, 2.8pts, 2.7reb, no 3pt threat
F #31 Jamari Traylor 6-8 220 Sr, 2.7pts, 3.5reb, no 3pt threat

Team Stats
Points per game 83.7
Points allowed 69.2
Scoring margin +14.5
Field goal pct .486
FG% allowed .405
3-point FG pct .430
3pt fg% allowed .346
Free throw pct .713
Rebounds per game 39.0
Rebounds allowed 33.4
Rebounding margin +5.6
Assists per game 16.7
Turnovers per game 11.9
Turnover margin +2.0
Assist/turnover ratio 1.4
Steals per game 7.3
Blocks per game 4.1

KenPom Stats (#17 Kansas)
Strengths

#6 in 3pt shooting % at 43.0%
#13 in overall offensive efficiency
#25 in effective FG%
#30 in 2pt% defense
Weaknesses
#223 in 3fg% defense (allowing 35.6%)
#201 in allowing getting shots blocked
#184 in ft attempts per fg attempt

Analysis: This is a game college basketball fans have been anticipating all season, Kentucky goes to Kansas for a blueblood clash in the SEC-BIG12 Challenge. One big change here, obviously, is that most of the conference challenges are scheduled for earlier in the season, but the SEC and B12 decided to make these games even more meaningful by placing these games right in the middle of conference play. Win or lose, I think I like the idea of having a meaningful nonconference game against a quality opponent like this. I think I speak for most UK fans in saying I'm glad we didn't have to travel to Lawrence a few weeks ago, because I doubt I'd have had any hope whatsoever at that point. Fortunately for Cats fans, UK has just finished playing its best stretch of 3 consecutive games on the season. Meanwhile, Kansas is entering this game having lost 3 of its last 5 games, all 3 by double digits. They were all conference road games, so for UK those games may not help very much, as Kansas remains a perfect 11-0 at home on the season.

When you look at Kansas, their foundation is built around 3 upperclassmen (Ellis, Mason, and Selden) who have been around for a while. Their leading scorer is Perry Ellis, a guy who is now a 4-year starter and a senior. He's a 6-8 power forward who seems he's been there forever. He's averaging 16.7 points and 6.6 rebounds this season, leading the team in both categories. But the thing he's added of most significance this season is some 3pt shooting. He's been stepping outside quite a bit this season, where he's been shooting at an impressive 45.5%. His frontcourt partner is the 6-10 240 junior Landen Lucas. He's not scoring much but he's a big body down low and has played a bit better defensively than some of the Jayhawks' other options, including the guy who was supposed to step right in when he became eligible, Chiek Diallo. Diallo seems to have been benched after his performances in the last few games.

In the backcourt, Kansas runs a 3-guard lineup. The guy who runs the offense is Frank Mason, the 5-11 junior who is 3rd in scoring but leads the team in assists with 4.8 per game. He's the guy who makes the team go. He can also step outside and make the 3 at 39%. The 3rd upperclassmen that leads the team is Wayne Selden, a guy we all know well. He's a 6-5 230lb wing who is shooting an excellent 46.7% from 3pt range. He's definitely one of the guys the team looks to when a play really needs to be made. The other backcourt starter is a 6-2 sophomore Devonte Graham. He is 2nd in assists and 4th in scoring. He's another guy who can shoot it very well from distance. In fact, as a team, Kansas is shooting 43% from 3pt range, which is good for 6th in the nation.

When you look at the Kansas bench, you are looking at a bunch of other talented players anD perhaps some underachievers. The top scorer off the bench is Brannen Greene, a 6-7 wing who has been shooting a ridiculous 54% from 3pt range. Guard him when you start warmups. Kansas has another wing coming in to provide some scoring in Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk. Honestly, I have no idea how to say that name, but I can tell you he's 6-8 and plays on the wing. He's not as good a shooter as some other Jayhawks but he's scoring 5.8 points per game off the bench. The first forward off the bench lately has been 6-9 freshman Carlton Bragg. This has caused some controversy among the Kansas media and has been the subject of various message board posts among the Kansas faithful. The issue has been why Fr Diallo seems to be losing minutes to Bragg. Self addressed this recently and said he had met with the team leaders and they were not as comfortable playing with Diallo. I guess we'll see if that causes some stir in the team. Hunter Mickelson is another big man we may see. He's a 6-10 245 senior in a loaded frontcourt.

After looking more closely at Kansas, there is no question they have significant talent and will be a huge challenge to UK at Allen Fieldhouse. Kansas just doesn't lose games there, even when they probably should lose. So, the Cats are playing against, not only arguably the most talented team they've faced this season, but also the mystique of Phog Allen Fieldhouse and the significant advantage the Jayhawks enjoy on their home floor. This will be a very tough game. The last couple times UK has been there, the result has been very ugly.

Having said this, it's possible Kentucky may be catching Kansas at a good time. You could argue a couple ways, I suppose. Losing 3 of 5 and benching Diallo could make the Jayhawks even more focused and determined to win. Or the entire thing could serve as a major distraction and Kansas could be ripe for a rare home loss. I suppose it all depends on how you look at it.

I like the way our Cats have played these last 3 games. If we can come out playing strong defense at the 3pt line (which is something the Cats have done very well lately against some excellent shooting teams in Arkansas and Vanderbilt) and if they can execute the offense as they've been doing, the Cats have a shot. I think we matchup well with Ellis, and Lucas isn't a great offensive threat, though he's gonna be a load to handle and keep off the glass. So that means it comes down to the guards, and I feel good about Ulis against Mason. I also think Selden will find it tough sledding against Murray and Briscoe.

Bottom line: I think the Jayhawks are distracted and the Cats are gonna sneak out of there with a very close victory.

Prediction: Kentucky 73 Kansas 70
 
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We need a good game out of Alex and hopefully he can stay out of foul trouble. I like our guards against their guards. Great analysis and hope your prediction is right.
 
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My only fear: Poy draws two quick fouls and then we are short handed. Lee is a fouling machine as well. Basically I believe if we can stay out of foul trouble we make this a heck of a ballgame.
Yeah, that would be killer, especially given the fact that I think he's a nightmare matchup for Ellis.
 
thanks OP, as always
I'm pretty nervous about this game - but actually more worried about early foul trouble than anything.
I think our guys will be pumped and ready - just hopefully not too tight. If KU is having issues, maybe if we punch 'em in the mouth quickly........?
 
KU has much more front court talent than UK but can they use them? Our biggest problem has been our front court disappearing or fouling themselves into oblivion. I am going to pick UK in the prediction contest but I honestly believe it would be a major upset if we win. We probably have less than a 10% chance of winning because of being on the road and lacking the front court talent and depth. I like our guards over their experienced guards but our forwards' failure to be an offensive threat an inclination to foul defensively doesn't bode well on the road.

I fear that our guards will end up having to drive into the lane to generate the offense and end up getting blocked or stripped.
 
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Bill Self is 200-9 at Allen Fieldhouse. That's pretty ridiculous. No matter what UK does on Saturday, it's going to be an extremely tough game.
 
Great breakdown as always. With as many good shooters as they have, it is going to be a major chore guarding them on the outside. Kansas is really good at moving the ball around until they find the open man. If we play a really tight man-defense, we may have a shot.
 
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Think one important detail is Hunter Mickelson is hurt. He was one of two shot-blockers on the team (with the other being Diallo, and he's too think to hang with Poy down low).

Think Kansas' post defense will be pretty weak in this game, and really, between Perry Ellis, Jamari Traylor, and Landen Lucas, there isn't a ton of post defense anyway, and aside from Ellis, a lot of absolute duds on offense. As long as Derek Willis does what Derek Willis has been doing, and Alex Poythress doesn't fall asleep against Perry Ellis, I like Kentucky's chances. I can say comfortably that at least, I've never seen Perry Ellis have a ton of success against superior athletes that match his size, and after we see Poythress do what he did against Ellis last season, I have no reason to believe that Poy can't do it again.
 
Think one important detail is Hunter Mickelson is hurt. He was one of two shot-blockers on the team (with the other being Diallo, and he's too think to hang with Poy down low).

Think Kansas' post defense will be pretty weak in this game, and really, between Perry Ellis, Jamari Traylor, and Landen Lucas, there isn't a ton of post defense anyway, and aside from Ellis, a lot of absolute duds on offense. As long as Derek Willis does what Derek Willis has been doing, and Alex Poythress doesn't fall asleep against Perry Ellis, I like Kentucky's chances. I can say comfortably that at least, I've never seen Perry Ellis have a ton of success against superior athletes that match his size, and after we see Poythress do what he did against Ellis last season, I have no reason to believe that Poy can't do it again.
Thanks for the input. I definitely agree about Poythress and Ellis. He's a great matchup for Ellis from UK's point of view.
 
Just one point of clarification. Ellis did not start his freshman year.

That's a good scouting report overall. One thing you have working for you is some size down low. Mason loves to drive it, usually getting in the lane at will. However he is TERRIBLE at finishing over really big front lines. If he would learn to pull up or give a little floater then it might be better. But lately he's been intent on driving all the way to the rim which has not worked out very well in our latest down stretch.

Overall if we can get back to shooting our 50% clip from three, freeing Ellis to operate like the surgeon he is inside, then you'll be in trouble. If we instead quit moving the ball and go to hero ball again them we'll be in trouble.
 
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As others have said, foul trouble especially inside will really hurt. My feeling is, Cal will have his inside guys play somewhat soft in the first half to avoid those killer early fouls, then come at them hard in the second half. So if we're behind by 7-10 at halftime ( and this board melts down), but not in foul trouble, watch out!
 
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Great report - I knew KU had lost recently, but they lost by big margins! They seem to not be playing well and we are on a huge uptick. I like our team. (Where have I heard that before....?)
 
Great report as always IL Wildcat but this is one game I think we will lose. I hope you are correct. I look for our bigs to get in foul trouble right out of the gate. Just hope our guys are ready for one heck of a fight.
 
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200-9. There are a few places - and Rupp and the Phog are two of them - where home court advantage really means something, and is very hard to overcome. It's one thing to be the other team's Super Bowl when it's Auburn or Ole Miss or fill in the blank. Going to KU will be very challenging.

KU 76
UK 71

Having said that, it's a non-conference game in January. Be nice to win, but if we don't - depending of course on how we look, etc. - I'm not going to sweat it.....
 
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Just one point of clarification. Ellis did not start his freshman year.

That's a good scouting report overall. One thing you have working for you is some size down low. Mason loves to drive it, usually getting in the lane at will. However he is TERRIBLE at finishing over really big front lines. If he would learn to pull up or give a little floater then it might be better. But lately he's been intent on driving all the way to the rim which has not worked out very well in our latest down stretch.

Overall if we can get back to shooting our 50% clip from three, freeing Ellis to operate like the surgeon he is inside, then you'll be in trouble. If we instead quit moving the ball and go to hero ball again them we'll be in trouble.

I just don't see Ellis going wild inside vs our front line. I've been watching you guys and I see what Ellis has been doing to most teams. You guys better hope you get Poy and Lee in foul trouble- that will be Ellis' only hope IMO.

I really like how we match up across the board vs KU. I feel like we cause more matchup problems for you guys, then you all do for us. Of course The Phog has a way of countering all that, so we will see.
 
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No MIckleson or Diallo, means no true post D presence and our guards can drive all night.

We can defend the 3 and have showed it against Vandy and Arkansas (even on the road)

Poythress shut Elis down last year and can do it again (if the zebras allow it)

Mason is turnover prone and will do to much if KU gets in a bad spot. He hasn't had anyone like Ulis on him this year.

I think those four give us a chance. I'll say UK 64-56 with my heart.

My head says we drop this one but stay competitive.

Note this is all subject to change according to the zebras assigned and how they let the game go.
 
That's a good write up. I don't know what the end means "KU is distracted". Of course they are, all 20 year old men in college are "distracted". That's why it's the best time of life.
 
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I believe in our coach and guards. I think Willis,and Poy will have good games. It should be a very good game,and toss up about who wins.
 
Yes, I think early foul problems, and putting guys on the bench the rest of the half are what concerns a lot of us. I can't say I like our chances. It's one of the very toughest places to play, and well we are UK. It's always tough for us on the road. But we've definitely got a chance. It's worth playing and watching. I'm not sure Skal will play a lot in this game, but if Alex and Marcus get in early foul trouble we're going to need him to play well. Even if Alex doesn't get in foul trouble he really needs to have a big game. A 20/10 game or something like it from him would be fantastic out there. And he is the guy on this team with the most experience playing tough road games. I expect for our freshmen playing there will be an experience like they've never had before, and will rarely have again. This is exactly the kind of game though guys go to programs like UK and KU to play in.
 
200-9. There are a few places - and Rupp and the Phog are two of them - where home court advantage really means something, and is very hard to overcome. It's one thing to be the other team's Super Bowl when it's Auburn or Ole Miss or fill in the blank. Going to KU will be very challenging.

KU 76
UK 71

Having said that, it's a non-conference game in January. Be nice to win, but if we don't - depending of course on how we look, etc. - I'm not going to sweat it.....
Yeah, that 200-9 home record under Self is hard to argue with. The hope I have (which could be gone if our boys are all sick) is that UK has just played its 3 best games of the season and Kansas has lost 3 of 5 and is dealing with some turmoil. That's why I think our Cats will win in a tight one.
 
What Alex do we get? We'll need some post scoring, and that's where they're weakest. If we get the vs Alabama Alex, we crush them. Taylor and Lucas can't really match his athleticism (though they do have size), and Bragg would not be much better. If we get lame Alex, we're relying on jump shots, and then it's a crap shoot.

Murray cannot have a slump to start. Briscoe needs to play under control. Willis need to bring the same energy he's been bringing and step up his defense. Ulis just needs to be Ulis (damn him having a cold). Skal needs to contribute. Anyone who plays spot minutes must hold steady.

I don't see us taking this one... The home court is just too much of an advantage. 74-63 Kansas (hurts to say that). We can definitely win this one, there's just a lot of ifs, and when there's more than a coupe ifs...

Losing this game is no indictment on the season though. For all their warts, Kansas is a top team this year, one we'd most likely only see in a E8 or better. The loss basically means nothing except that ESPN can drool over the Big 12 the rest of the year.
 
Kansas Jayhawks
Head Coach: Bill Self 575-187 (.754), 368-82 (.818) in 13th season at Kansas

Current Record: 16-4, 5-3 Big 12, 11-0 home
Schedule
11/13/15 NORTHERN COLO. W 109-72
!11/17/15 vs Michigan State L 73-79
#11/23/15 vs Chaminade W 123-72
#11/24/15 vs UCLA W 92-73
#11/25/15 vs Vanderbilt W 70-63
12/01/15 LOYOLA MARYLAND W 94-61
12/05/15 HARVARD W 75-69
12/09/15 HOLY CROSS W 92-59
12/12/15 OREGON STATE W 82-67
12/19/15 MONTANA W 88-46
12/22/15 at San Diego State W 70-57
12/29/15 UC IRVINE W 78-53
* 01/02/16 BAYLOR W 102-74
* 01/04/16 OKLAHOMA Wo3 109-106
* 01/09/16 at Texas Tech W 69-59
* 01/12/16 at West Virginia L 63-74
* 01/16/16 TCU W 70-63
* 01/19/16 at Oklahoma State L 67-86
* 01/23/16 TEXAS W 76-67
* 01/25/16 at Iowa State L 72-85
* - Big 12 Conference game
! - State Farm Champions Classic (Chicago, IL - United Center)
# - Maui Invitational (Lahaina, HI - Lahina Civic Center)

Game Information:
01/30/16 Kentucky at Kansas, Lawrence, KS, Allen Fieldhouse, 7:00 pm EST, TV: ESPN

Probable Starters
F #34 Perry Ellis 6-8 225 Sr, 16.7pts, 6.6reb, 1.2ast, .455 3pt%
F #33 Landen Lucas 6-10 240 Jr, 4.0pts, 5.2reb, no 3pt threat
G #1 Wayne Selden Jr. 6-5 230 Jr, 14.6pts, 3.4reb, 2.7ast, .467 3pt%
G #0 Frank Mason III 5-11 185 Jr, 13.4pts, 4.9reb, 4.8ast, 1.6stls, .390 3pt%
G #4 Devonte' Graham 6-2 175 So, 10.5pts, 3.0reb, 3.7ast, 1.4stls, .427 3pt%

Key Reserves
G #14 Brannen Greene 6-7 215 Jr, 6.8pts, 2.4reb, 1.0ast, .541 3pt%
G #10 Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk 6-8 195 So, 5.7pts, 1.3reb, .328 3pt%
F #15 Carlton Bragg Jr. 6-9 220 Fr, 4.6pts, 2.8reb, .500 3pt%
F #13 Cheick Diallo 6-9 218 Fr, 4.4pts, 2.7reb, no 3pt threat
F #42 Hunter Mickelson 6-10 245 Sr, 2.8pts, 2.7reb, no 3pt threat
F #31 Jamari Traylor 6-8 220 Sr, 2.7pts, 3.5reb, no 3pt threat

Team Stats
Points per game 83.7
Points allowed 69.2
Scoring margin +14.5
Field goal pct .486
FG% allowed .405
3-point FG pct .430
3pt fg% allowed .346
Free throw pct .713
Rebounds per game 39.0
Rebounds allowed 33.4
Rebounding margin +5.6
Assists per game 16.7
Turnovers per game 11.9
Turnover margin +2.0
Assist/turnover ratio 1.4
Steals per game 7.3
Blocks per game 4.1

KenPom Stats (#17 Kansas)
Strengths

#6 in 3pt shooting % at 43.0%
#13 in overall offensive efficiency
#25 in effective FG%
#30 in 2pt% defense
Weaknesses
#223 in 3fg% defense (allowing 35.6%)
#201 in allowing getting shots blocked
#184 in ft attempts per fg attempt

Analysis: This is a game college basketball fans have been anticipating all season, Kentucky goes to Kansas for a blueblood clash in the SEC-BIG12 Challenge. One big change here, obviously, is that most of the conference challenges are scheduled for earlier in the season, but the SEC and B12 decided to make these games even more meaningful by placing these games right in the middle of conference play. Win or lose, I think I like the idea of having a meaningful nonconference game against a quality opponent like this. I think I speak for most UK fans in saying I'm glad we didn't have to travel to Lawrence a few weeks ago, because I doubt I'd have had any hope whatsoever at that point. Fortunately for Cats fans, UK has just finished playing its best stretch of 3 consecutive games on the season. Meanwhile, Kansas is entering this game having lost 3 of its last 5 games, all 3 by double digits. They were all conference road games, so for UK those games may not help very much, as Kansas remains a perfect 11-0 at home on the season.

When you look at Kansas, their foundation is built around 3 upperclassmen (Ellis, Mason, and Selden) who have been around for a while. Their leading scorer is Perry Ellis, a guy who is now a 4-year starter and a senior. He's a 6-8 power forward who seems he's been there forever. He's averaging 16.7 points and 6.6 rebounds this season, leading the team in both categories. But the thing he's added of most significance this season is some 3pt shooting. He's been stepping outside quite a bit this season, where he's been shooting at an impressive 45.5%. His frontcourt partner is the 6-10 240 junior Landen Lucas. He's not scoring much but he's a big body down low and has played a bit better defensively than some of the Jayhawks' other options, including the guy who was supposed to step right in when he became eligible, Chiek Diallo. Diallo seems to have been benched after his performances in the last few games.

In the backcourt, Kansas runs a 3-guard lineup. The guy who runs the offense is Frank Mason, the 5-11 junior who is 3rd in scoring but leads the team in assists with 4.8 per game. He's the guy who makes the team go. He can also step outside and make the 3 at 39%. The 3rd upperclassmen that leads the team is Wayne Selden, a guy we all know well. He's a 6-5 230lb wing who is shooting an excellent 46.7% from 3pt range. He's definitely one of the guys the team looks to when a play really needs to be made. The other backcourt starter is a 6-2 sophomore Devonte Graham. He is 2nd in assists and 4th in scoring. He's another guy who can shoot it very well from distance. In fact, as a team, Kansas is shooting 43% from 3pt range, which is good for 6th in the nation.

When you look at the Kansas bench, you are looking at a bunch of other talented players anD perhaps some underachievers. The top scorer off the bench is Brannen Greene, a 6-7 wing who has been shooting a ridiculous 54% from 3pt range. Guard him when you start warmups. Kansas has another wing coming in to provide some scoring in Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk. Honestly, I have no idea how to say that name, but I can tell you he's 6-8 and plays on the wing. He's not as good a shooter as some other Jayhawks but he's scoring 5.8 points per game off the bench. The first forward off the bench lately has been 6-9 freshman Carlton Bragg. This has caused some controversy among the Kansas media and has been the subject of various message board posts among the Kansas faithful. The issue has been why Fr Diallo seems to be losing minutes to Bragg. Self addressed this recently and said he had met with the team leaders and they were not as comfortable playing with Diallo. I guess we'll see if that causes some stir in the team. Hunter Mickelson is another big man we may see. He's a 6-10 245 senior in a loaded frontcourt.

After looking more closely at Kansas, there is no question they have significant talent and will be a huge challenge to UK at Allen Fieldhouse. Kansas just doesn't lose games there, even when they probably should lose. So, the Cats are playing against, not only arguably the most talented team they've faced this season, but also the mystique of Phog Allen Fieldhouse and the significant advantage the Jayhawks enjoy on their home floor. This will be a very tough game. The last couple times UK has been there, the result has been very ugly.

Having said this, it's possible Kentucky may be catching Kansas at a good time. You could argue a couple ways, I suppose. Losing 3 of 5 and benching Diallo could make the Jayhawks even more focused and determined to win. Or the entire thing could serve as a major distraction and Kansas could be ripe for a rare home loss. I suppose it all depends on how you look at it.

I like the way our Cats have played these last 3 games. If we can come out playing strong defense at the 3pt line (which is something the Cats have done very well lately against some excellent shooting teams in Arkansas and Vanderbilt) and if they can execute the offense as they've been doing, the Cats have a shot. I think we matchup well with Ellis, and Lucas isn't a great offensive threat, though he's gonna be a load to handle and keep off the glass. So that means it comes down to the guards, and I feel good about Ulis against Mason. I also think Selden will find it tough sledding against Murray and Briscoe.

Bottom line: I think the Jayhawks are distracted and the Cats are gonna sneak out of there with a very close victory.

Prediction: Kentucky 73 Kansas 70
This is a good analysis. To provide my two cents as a KU fan the entire game will hinge on whether or not KU makes 3s. If KU is shooting as well as they usually do, KU will win. If UK shuts down the 3 or KU is off, the game becomes much more of a coin toss.

Ellis is absolutely awful against more athletic big men or stronger big men. He disappears, though will end the game with 14pts and 6 rebs because he can hit the outside shot. They are quiet points and if UK's big men can out athletic him and/or are bigger than him, he will be a non-factor.

Lucas isn't to be worried about. He can only score when he is under the basket with no one around and even then he may miss the shot. That said, he's one of the leading offensive rebounders in college basketball so he'll need to be boxed out even if he isn't an offensive threat.

Traylor is a wild card. He'll have 3-5 great minutes then not do much otherwise. Bragg and Diallo have both been stuck on the bench. There are a lot of big men, but outside of Ellis who I predict will be a now show, they aren't consistent offensive threats.

Mason loves to drive and jump then look for a passing option. If UK bodies up on D, they will get a ton of TOs from Mason. Graham has been utterly lost the last few games and Seldon is nicknamed by KU fans as Seldom for his propensity to take over a game and score 26 then have 4 points in the next.

Given it's at the Phog you have to think KU will be up and like I said if KU is shooing at their season average from 3 UK is screwed. If they are tight or it's taken away, UK has a great shot to come out with a W.
 
Thanks IL Wildcat. This is a good analysis. I hope your prediction is correct. Go Cats!!
 
This is a good analysis. To provide my two cents as a KU fan the entire game will hinge on whether or not KU makes 3s. If KU is shooting as well as they usually do, KU will win. If UK shuts down the 3 or KU is off, the game becomes much more of a coin toss.

Ellis is absolutely awful against more athletic big men or stronger big men. He disappears, though will end the game with 14pts and 6 rebs because he can hit the outside shot. They are quiet points and if UK's big men can out athletic him and/or are bigger than him, he will be a non-factor.

Lucas isn't to be worried about. He can only score when he is under the basket with no one around and even then he may miss the shot. That said, he's one of the leading offensive rebounders in college basketball so he'll need to be boxed out even if he isn't an offensive threat.

Traylor is a wild card. He'll have 3-5 great minutes then not do much otherwise. Bragg and Diallo have both been stuck on the bench. There are a lot of big men, but outside of Ellis who I predict will be a now show, they aren't consistent offensive threats.

Mason loves to drive and jump then look for a passing option. If UK bodies up on D, they will get a ton of TOs from Mason. Graham has been utterly lost the last few games and Seldon is nicknamed by KU fans as Seldom for his propensity to take over a game and score 26 then have 4 points in the next.

Given it's at the Phog you have to think KU will be up and like I said if KU is shooing at their season average from 3 UK is screwed. If they are tight or it's taken away, UK has a great shot to come out with a W.
Thanks for the input hills5. I always appreciate the input from an opposing fan's point of view. Three point shooting is a major key to this game, I agree. Our Cats have done pretty well with that lately but Kansas has a bunch of good shooters to keep covered.
 
I saw us smoke UNC on Vince Carter jersey hanging day during the Tubby era.

I like our chances against a team that has a pitiful bench.

They have no advantages IMO. They'll have to be on fire to win
Not buying the Phog mystique; we are battle tested.

Get read for a great post game show tomorrow.
 
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Thanks again op. I look forward to reading these before every game, as it helps me tremendously to know what to expect from our opponent. Just curious, what all do you read and watch to get all this information? It has to take a while and I think that's why we all appreciate it even more.
 
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