Illinois State Redbirds
Conference: Missouri Valley Conference
Head Coach: Dan Muller (4th Season: 61-48 .559)
Team record: 3-4
Schedule
11-13-15 at San Diego State L 60-71
11-16-15 Morehead State W 67-66
11-19-15 South Dakota State L 67-83
11-21-15 Houston Baptist W 72-56
11/24/15 vs Maryland L 66-77
11/25/15 vs TCU L 60-71
11-27-15 Quincy W 73-63
Game information
11-30-15 Illinois State at Kentucky, Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY, 7:00 pm EST, TV: ESPN2
This is the first ever meeting between the 2 schools.
Probable Starters
#44 DeVaug Akoon-Purcell 6-5 200 Guard Sr. (15.9pts*, 3.6reb, 1.7ast, 30% from 3)
#23 Deontae Hawkins 6-8 219 Forward So. (9.9pts, 4.9reb*, 35.7% from 3)
#11 MiKyle McIntosh 6-7 234 Forward So. (8.3pts, 3.8reb, 37.5% from 3)
#12 Tony Wills 6-4 185 Guard Jr. (3.3pts, 2.3reb, 33.3% from 3)
#01 Paris Lee 6-0 185 Guard Jr. (12.0pts, 2.7reb, 4.0ast*, 2.1stl*, 42.1% from 3)
Key Bench Players
#35 Roland Griffin 6-7 210 Forward Fr. (5.9pts, 3.1reb, 1.1ast, 67% from 3*)
#00 Nick Banyard 6-8 225 Forward Jr (4.0pts, 3.3reb, 44.4% from 3)
#02 Quintin Brewer 6-8 215 Forward R-Sr. (3.3pts, 3.5reb, no 3pt threat)
#04 Daouda Ndiaye 7-0 210 Center Fr. (2.5pts, 2.5reb, 1.1blk*, no 3pt threat)
#15 Justin McCloud 6-4 198 Guard Sr. (2.4, 2.1reb, 1.3ast)
#03 Keyshawn Evans 6-0 170 Guard Fr. (1.0 pts, 0.7reb)
* leads team in this category
Team Stats
Points per game 66.4
Points allowed 69.6
Scoring margin -3.1
Field goal pct .413
FG% allowed .424
3-point FG pct .345
3pt FG% D .314
3-pt FG made per game 5.9
Free throw pct .580
F-Throws made per game 14.6
Rebounds per game 34.0
Opp rebounds 38.4
Rebounding margin -4.4
Assists per game 11.4
Turnovers per game 15.0
Turnover margin +1.4
Assist/turnover ratio 0.8
Steals per game 6.4
Blocks per game 4.1
Key KenPom Stats:
Rated #144 overall
15th in the nation in forcing turnovers (very good)
#72 in overall defensive efficiency (not terrible)
#341 in FT percentage (embarrassing)
#269 in Effective FG% (terrible)
Analysis: Illinois State is one of those teams that is difficult to get a good handle on. One of the first things I noticed, just from looking at their numbers, is that they've started 8 different players in their 7 games. 4 of those guys, Akoon-DeVaug, Lee, Hawkins, and McIntosh, are pretty much fixtures as starters, but that 5th guy has rotated quite a bit. I think Wills gets the start tonight since UK plays a 3-guard line-up for the most part. Beyond starters, this Redbirds team has played all 11 of the players I've listed in nearly every game. 10 of those guys play at least 11 minutes a game. No player gets more than 30 minutes a game. This is how they stay fresh. Their best stat, according to KenPom's analytics is easily defensive turnover percentage. They force turnovers on nearly 25% of their opponents' possessions, which is 15th in the nation. For comparison sake, UK is also good at forcing turnovers, but the Cats only force turnovers on 21.1% of opponents' possessions. So, these guys will bring the pressure and shuffling 11 players in and out is how they keep it up.
They are a scrappy bunch from what I've seen of them, which was a good part of their game with Maryland. That game was quite interesting. Illinois State led by 5 over Maryland with 7:26 remaining in the game before falling 77-66. They gave the number 2 team in the nation all they wanted and more on a neutral floor.
They are really more a system-driven team than a player-driven team. Offensively, as Coach Calipari said yesterday, they will often run a 5-out system, which means that they will spread the floor and make various cuts to try to get open. I found a decent explanation of it which goes as follows: "The 5-Out Motion Offense involves five people leaving and filling spots through typical basketball cuts and movements. Each one of the specific cuts is numbered. For instance, 1 is a basket cut, 2 is a curl cut, 3 is a backdoor, 4 is a slip, 5 is a back screen flare, 6 is a pick and roll, and 7 is a handoff." This is an offense you would use if you lack a dominant post player, which is the case for the Redbirds. Because of this, personnel is not as important as getting the system right and making the right cut. UK will have to defend for much of the shot clock every time down.
From a personnel standpoint, the leading scorer is DeVaug Akoon-Purcell, the 6-5 senior guard/small forward who averages 15.9 points per game. He's also second in assists and one of their top rebounders. The big knock on Purcell is that he's very turnover prone. I think he tries to do too much very often, but he has 22 turnovers on the season. The guy who makes the offense go is Paris Lee. The 6ft junior guard leads the team in assists with 4 per game. He's second in scoring with 12 pts per game. He also leads the team in steals with over 2 per game. The third guard who gets the most minutes is Tony Wills. He's not nearly the scorer or shooter as the other guys.
The two post players who get the most minutes are Deontae Hawkins, a 6-8 219 sophomore, and MiKyle McIntosh, a 6-7 234 sophomore. McIntosh is the one who shoots most of his shots on the interior while Hakwins roams around much more. Both of these guys can shoot the ball from 3pt range, though. The third 6-7 forward who comes in from the bench is Roland Griffin, and he's the best shooter, by percentage on the team. He's made 6-9 from 3 on the year. Nick Banyard is another 6-8 forward who shoots it well from distance and comes off the bench. Needless to say, it's no wonder this team is a bit dangerous. They play this 5-out style with a bunch of guys who can all shoot and score the ball if you let down your guard.
Having said all of this, you must be asking why this team hasn't won more of its games. Well, they've played a fairly tough schedule, with a true road game at San Diego St and neutral site games against Maryland and TCU. The other issue is that they have struggles shooting from the floor. They only shoot 41.3% from the field. They shoot 34.5% from 3, so I'm sure they'd prefer to shoot from out there more often. They also struggle from the free throw line, terribly. When I say terribly, that's no exaggeration. They're shooting 58% from the FT line on the season, good for #341 in the nation from the line. Of course, when they come to Rupp, they won't miss.
I am slightly concerned about this game. First, they're unconventional. Their offense and defense can both cause problems for teams who haven't seen it very much, especially early in a game. It may take the Cats a bit of time to adjust. Second, I'm concerned that Ulis may not start or get to play. I have no doubt our other guards can handle this (I know it would be good for them), but I'd prefer having Ulis in there. If he is held out, it will be primarily freshmen handling the ball. Third, these guys are going to play a rugged style. They have 11 guys shuttling in and out and they don't mind fouling. Our guys will have to be tough with the ball. With all this in mind, I expect the beginning of the game to be a bit ugly and for the Cats to possibly even get behind early. But I fully expect our guards to handle their pressure and for our defense to make a Redbirds offense that already struggles have even more problems.
Prediction: Kentucky 78 Illinois State 60
Conference: Missouri Valley Conference
Head Coach: Dan Muller (4th Season: 61-48 .559)
Team record: 3-4
Schedule
11-13-15 at San Diego State L 60-71
11-16-15 Morehead State W 67-66
11-19-15 South Dakota State L 67-83
11-21-15 Houston Baptist W 72-56
11/24/15 vs Maryland L 66-77
11/25/15 vs TCU L 60-71
11-27-15 Quincy W 73-63
Game information
11-30-15 Illinois State at Kentucky, Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY, 7:00 pm EST, TV: ESPN2
This is the first ever meeting between the 2 schools.
Probable Starters
#44 DeVaug Akoon-Purcell 6-5 200 Guard Sr. (15.9pts*, 3.6reb, 1.7ast, 30% from 3)
#23 Deontae Hawkins 6-8 219 Forward So. (9.9pts, 4.9reb*, 35.7% from 3)
#11 MiKyle McIntosh 6-7 234 Forward So. (8.3pts, 3.8reb, 37.5% from 3)
#12 Tony Wills 6-4 185 Guard Jr. (3.3pts, 2.3reb, 33.3% from 3)
#01 Paris Lee 6-0 185 Guard Jr. (12.0pts, 2.7reb, 4.0ast*, 2.1stl*, 42.1% from 3)
Key Bench Players
#35 Roland Griffin 6-7 210 Forward Fr. (5.9pts, 3.1reb, 1.1ast, 67% from 3*)
#00 Nick Banyard 6-8 225 Forward Jr (4.0pts, 3.3reb, 44.4% from 3)
#02 Quintin Brewer 6-8 215 Forward R-Sr. (3.3pts, 3.5reb, no 3pt threat)
#04 Daouda Ndiaye 7-0 210 Center Fr. (2.5pts, 2.5reb, 1.1blk*, no 3pt threat)
#15 Justin McCloud 6-4 198 Guard Sr. (2.4, 2.1reb, 1.3ast)
#03 Keyshawn Evans 6-0 170 Guard Fr. (1.0 pts, 0.7reb)
* leads team in this category
Team Stats
Points per game 66.4
Points allowed 69.6
Scoring margin -3.1
Field goal pct .413
FG% allowed .424
3-point FG pct .345
3pt FG% D .314
3-pt FG made per game 5.9
Free throw pct .580
F-Throws made per game 14.6
Rebounds per game 34.0
Opp rebounds 38.4
Rebounding margin -4.4
Assists per game 11.4
Turnovers per game 15.0
Turnover margin +1.4
Assist/turnover ratio 0.8
Steals per game 6.4
Blocks per game 4.1
Key KenPom Stats:
Rated #144 overall
15th in the nation in forcing turnovers (very good)
#72 in overall defensive efficiency (not terrible)
#341 in FT percentage (embarrassing)
#269 in Effective FG% (terrible)
Analysis: Illinois State is one of those teams that is difficult to get a good handle on. One of the first things I noticed, just from looking at their numbers, is that they've started 8 different players in their 7 games. 4 of those guys, Akoon-DeVaug, Lee, Hawkins, and McIntosh, are pretty much fixtures as starters, but that 5th guy has rotated quite a bit. I think Wills gets the start tonight since UK plays a 3-guard line-up for the most part. Beyond starters, this Redbirds team has played all 11 of the players I've listed in nearly every game. 10 of those guys play at least 11 minutes a game. No player gets more than 30 minutes a game. This is how they stay fresh. Their best stat, according to KenPom's analytics is easily defensive turnover percentage. They force turnovers on nearly 25% of their opponents' possessions, which is 15th in the nation. For comparison sake, UK is also good at forcing turnovers, but the Cats only force turnovers on 21.1% of opponents' possessions. So, these guys will bring the pressure and shuffling 11 players in and out is how they keep it up.
They are a scrappy bunch from what I've seen of them, which was a good part of their game with Maryland. That game was quite interesting. Illinois State led by 5 over Maryland with 7:26 remaining in the game before falling 77-66. They gave the number 2 team in the nation all they wanted and more on a neutral floor.
They are really more a system-driven team than a player-driven team. Offensively, as Coach Calipari said yesterday, they will often run a 5-out system, which means that they will spread the floor and make various cuts to try to get open. I found a decent explanation of it which goes as follows: "The 5-Out Motion Offense involves five people leaving and filling spots through typical basketball cuts and movements. Each one of the specific cuts is numbered. For instance, 1 is a basket cut, 2 is a curl cut, 3 is a backdoor, 4 is a slip, 5 is a back screen flare, 6 is a pick and roll, and 7 is a handoff." This is an offense you would use if you lack a dominant post player, which is the case for the Redbirds. Because of this, personnel is not as important as getting the system right and making the right cut. UK will have to defend for much of the shot clock every time down.
From a personnel standpoint, the leading scorer is DeVaug Akoon-Purcell, the 6-5 senior guard/small forward who averages 15.9 points per game. He's also second in assists and one of their top rebounders. The big knock on Purcell is that he's very turnover prone. I think he tries to do too much very often, but he has 22 turnovers on the season. The guy who makes the offense go is Paris Lee. The 6ft junior guard leads the team in assists with 4 per game. He's second in scoring with 12 pts per game. He also leads the team in steals with over 2 per game. The third guard who gets the most minutes is Tony Wills. He's not nearly the scorer or shooter as the other guys.
The two post players who get the most minutes are Deontae Hawkins, a 6-8 219 sophomore, and MiKyle McIntosh, a 6-7 234 sophomore. McIntosh is the one who shoots most of his shots on the interior while Hakwins roams around much more. Both of these guys can shoot the ball from 3pt range, though. The third 6-7 forward who comes in from the bench is Roland Griffin, and he's the best shooter, by percentage on the team. He's made 6-9 from 3 on the year. Nick Banyard is another 6-8 forward who shoots it well from distance and comes off the bench. Needless to say, it's no wonder this team is a bit dangerous. They play this 5-out style with a bunch of guys who can all shoot and score the ball if you let down your guard.
Having said all of this, you must be asking why this team hasn't won more of its games. Well, they've played a fairly tough schedule, with a true road game at San Diego St and neutral site games against Maryland and TCU. The other issue is that they have struggles shooting from the floor. They only shoot 41.3% from the field. They shoot 34.5% from 3, so I'm sure they'd prefer to shoot from out there more often. They also struggle from the free throw line, terribly. When I say terribly, that's no exaggeration. They're shooting 58% from the FT line on the season, good for #341 in the nation from the line. Of course, when they come to Rupp, they won't miss.
I am slightly concerned about this game. First, they're unconventional. Their offense and defense can both cause problems for teams who haven't seen it very much, especially early in a game. It may take the Cats a bit of time to adjust. Second, I'm concerned that Ulis may not start or get to play. I have no doubt our other guards can handle this (I know it would be good for them), but I'd prefer having Ulis in there. If he is held out, it will be primarily freshmen handling the ball. Third, these guys are going to play a rugged style. They have 11 guys shuttling in and out and they don't mind fouling. Our guys will have to be tough with the ball. With all this in mind, I expect the beginning of the game to be a bit ugly and for the Cats to possibly even get behind early. But I fully expect our guards to handle their pressure and for our defense to make a Redbirds offense that already struggles have even more problems.
Prediction: Kentucky 78 Illinois State 60
