Florida Gators
Head Coach: Mike White 116-47 (.712), 15-7 in 1st season at Florida
Record: 15-7, 6-3 in SEC, 2-5 away
Schedule
11/13/15 at Navy W 59-41
11/16/15 NORTH CAROLINA A&T W 104-54
? 11/21/15 vs Saint Joseph's W 74-63
? 11/22/15 vs Purdue L 70-85
11/25/15 VERMONT W 86-62
11/27/15 FLORIDA GULF COAST W 70-50
12/1/15 RICHMOND W 76-56
12/8/15 at Miami L 55-66
12/12/15 at Michigan State L 52-58
! 12/19/15 vs Oklahoma State W 72-70
12/22/15 JACKSONVILLE W 89-65
12/29/15 FLORIDA STATE L 71-73
* 1/2/16 GEORGIA W 77-63
* 1/6/16 at Tennessee L 69-83
* 1/9/16 LSU W 68-62
* 1/12/16 at Texas A&M L 68-71
* 1/16/16 at Ole Miss W 80-71
* 1/19/16 MISSISSIPPI STATE W 81-78
* 1/23/16 AUBURN W 95-63
* 1/26/16 at Vanderbilt L 59-60
1/30/16 WEST VIRGINIA W 88-71
* 2/3/16 ARKANSAS W 87-83
* = Conference game
? = Hall of Fame Tip-Off Tournament, Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, Conn.
! = Orange Bowl Classic, BB&T Center, Sunrise, Fla.
Game info: 02/06/16 Florida at Kentucky, 4:00 pm EST, TV: CBS
Probable Starters
F #10 Dorian Finney-Smith 6-8 220 Sr, 15.1pts, 8.2reb, 2.3ast, .416 3pt%
C #15 John Egbunu 6-11 255 So, 10.7pts, 6.3reb, 1.5blks, no 3pt threat
G #4 KeVaughn Allen 6-2 183 Fr, 11.8pts, 2.6reb, 1.5ast, 1.3stls, .326 3pt%
G #11 Chris Chiozza 6-0 175 So, 7.5pts, 2.7reb, 4.7ast, 1.1stls, .342 3pt%
G #0 Kasey Hill 6-1 180 Jr, 8.4pts, 2.7reb, 3.0ast, 1.4stls, .273 3pt%
Key Reserves
F #3 Devin Robinson 6-8 195 So, 8.8pts, 5.8reb, .290 3pt%
F #24 Justin Leon 6-8 196 Jr, 5.1pts, 2.7reb, .471 3pt%
F #13 Kevarrius Hayes 6-9 210 Fr, 2.3pts, 2.8reb, no 3pt threat
G/F #1 DeVon Walker 6-6 203 Jr, 2.2pts, 1.8reb, .105 3pt%
G #2 Brandone Francis-Ramirez 6-5 205 Fr, 2.2pts, 1.2reb, .118 3pt%
F/C #32 Schuyler Rimmer 6-10 245 Jr, 2.1pts, 1.7reb
G #2 Brandone Francis-Ramirez 6-5 205 Fr, 2.0pts, 1.0reb, .182 3pt%
Team Stats
Points per game 75.0
Points allowed 65.8
Scoring margin +9.2
Field goal pct .430
FG% allowed .392
3-point FG pct .327
3pt% allowed .312
Free throw pct .646
Rebounds per game 41.1
Rebounds allowed 37.7
Rebounding margin +3.4
Assists per game 13.3
Turnovers per game 11.8
Turnover margin +1.9
Assist/turnover ratio 1.1
Steals per game 6.9
Blocks per game 4.5
KenPom Stats (Florida #23)
Strengths
#9 in defensive efficiency
#15 in effective FG% defense
#25 in 2pt% defense
#36 in 3pt% defense
Weaknesses
#317 in FT% (64.7%)
#247 in 3pt% (32.7%)
#218 in fg% efficiency
Analysis: Florida enters today’s game with Kentucky riding pretty high, after winning 5 of their last 6 games, including a big win over West Virginia, which was a big resume booster for the Gators. Meanwhile, Kentucky is fresh off back to back losses and licking its wounds. Today’s game is a big one for both teams. Florida is needing to further bolster its tournament resume after a lackluster nonconference season and Kentucky is needing to stop the bleeding and keep this from becoming a losing “streak.” Also on the line is UK’s home winning streak.
Mike White is in his first season at Florida and has the Gators playing a frenetic, pressing style of basketball. This is the style he developed at Louisiana Tech, and he’s carried it over the Florida. They will play a bunch of guys in every game, trying to keep them fresh for the press. It’s a similar style to what Kentucky played back in the 90s under Pitino. They have started multiple line-ups this season. It seems Mike White chooses his starters based on how he thinks they’ll match-up with the opponent. The 3 guys who have started pretty much every game are Finney-Smith, KeVaughn Allen, and Chris Chiozza. The others rotate depending on the opponent. I’ve projected this line-up based on matching UK’s 3-guard starting line-up. The other guys we might see are Devin Robinson and Justin Leon.
When you look at Florida, the most important player is Dorian Finney-Smith, the 6-8 senior forward. He’s their go-to guy when they’re in need of a bucket. He’s scoring 15.1 points and pulling down 8.2 rebounds. He’s definitely a stretch 4, and is shooting the ball at nearly 42% from 3pt range on the season. Joining him in the front court is John Egbunu, a 6-11 255 center who isn’t very polished offensively yet but is tough inside and finds a way to get his points. He’s averaging 10.7 points per game and 6.3 rebounds and will be a tough match-up for our interior players.
In the backcourt, the guy with the ball in his hands most of the time is sophomore Chris Chiozza. He’s a guy UK fans know well. He’s not a huge scorer but he leads the team in assists and is able to knock down the three if left open, shooting about 34% from distance. The other guard who has started pretty much every game his season is KeVaughn Allen, a 6-2 freshman who has been coming on as the season has progressed. He’s good in the open floor shoots the three at 32.6%. He’s been one of their most consistent scorers on the season, which is why he’s in the starting line-up. He’s 2nd on the team in scoring and is also an excellent defender in the press. The third guard I think will start today is Kasey Hill, the 6-1 junior who plays with the ball and off the ball for the Gators. Since Chiozza came along, he’s been playing off the ball more. I think he’ll start this game because he’s an upperclassmen who has more experience playing in Rupp Arena more than their other guards and more big game experience in general. He’s 5th in scoring and is excellent at getting to the rim but the reason he doesn’t get even more minutes is because he struggles shooting the ball, only making 27% of his threes.
From the bench the Gators play a bunch of guys. The most important guys are probably Devin Robinson, Justin Leon, and Kevarrius Hayes. Robinson or Leon may start today instead of Kasey Hill, if Mike White thinks it’s a better match-up, but Hill has started the last 2 games, which includes that big win over West Va. Robinson is 4th on the team in scoring and 3rd in rebounding, so we’ll see a lot of him, whether he starts or not. He’s a 6-8 sophomore who played a lot for Donovan last season as well. Justin Leon is a 6-8 junior forward who does a bit of everything, but the thing he does best is makes a high percentage from 3, making 47.1% from distance. The Gators have a bunch of other guys who come in to give minutes and focus on defense, but these are the guys who could beat you. I’ve listed them all above.
I don’t know what to expect in this game. I’m hoping to see a renewed intensity on the part of our Cats. Florida is rated ahead of Kentucky according to KenPom, so this should be a tough game on paper. They’re much better than Auburn or Tennessee, I guarantee. Florida will press the whole game, especially if they’re getting some turnovers out of it. That actually should play into UK’s hands, since our Cats are excellent handling the ball and in the open floor, and usually finish well on the break. Teams that have tried to up-tempo UK this season have come away with an L.
A bigger question, in my mind, today will be the psyche and confidence of this UK team. How will they respond to losing 2 straight games as they did? The way they lost those games could shake their confidence. Then again, the Cats may come out very focused and playing with intensity and they might put on a strong performance against Florida. One thing is sure, there is no taking Florida lightly at this point. Florida’s 3pt stats look bad for the season but most of those misses came early on. In recent games, the Gators have been lighting it up from downtown. They definitely have the firepower to knock UK off, even in Rupp Arena. So, our boys better come out ready to play today. I expect they’ll be ready.
Prediction: Kentucky 79 Florida 71
Head Coach: Mike White 116-47 (.712), 15-7 in 1st season at Florida
Record: 15-7, 6-3 in SEC, 2-5 away
Schedule
11/13/15 at Navy W 59-41
11/16/15 NORTH CAROLINA A&T W 104-54
? 11/21/15 vs Saint Joseph's W 74-63
? 11/22/15 vs Purdue L 70-85
11/25/15 VERMONT W 86-62
11/27/15 FLORIDA GULF COAST W 70-50
12/1/15 RICHMOND W 76-56
12/8/15 at Miami L 55-66
12/12/15 at Michigan State L 52-58
! 12/19/15 vs Oklahoma State W 72-70
12/22/15 JACKSONVILLE W 89-65
12/29/15 FLORIDA STATE L 71-73
* 1/2/16 GEORGIA W 77-63
* 1/6/16 at Tennessee L 69-83
* 1/9/16 LSU W 68-62
* 1/12/16 at Texas A&M L 68-71
* 1/16/16 at Ole Miss W 80-71
* 1/19/16 MISSISSIPPI STATE W 81-78
* 1/23/16 AUBURN W 95-63
* 1/26/16 at Vanderbilt L 59-60
1/30/16 WEST VIRGINIA W 88-71
* 2/3/16 ARKANSAS W 87-83
* = Conference game
? = Hall of Fame Tip-Off Tournament, Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, Conn.
! = Orange Bowl Classic, BB&T Center, Sunrise, Fla.
Game info: 02/06/16 Florida at Kentucky, 4:00 pm EST, TV: CBS
Probable Starters
F #10 Dorian Finney-Smith 6-8 220 Sr, 15.1pts, 8.2reb, 2.3ast, .416 3pt%
C #15 John Egbunu 6-11 255 So, 10.7pts, 6.3reb, 1.5blks, no 3pt threat
G #4 KeVaughn Allen 6-2 183 Fr, 11.8pts, 2.6reb, 1.5ast, 1.3stls, .326 3pt%
G #11 Chris Chiozza 6-0 175 So, 7.5pts, 2.7reb, 4.7ast, 1.1stls, .342 3pt%
G #0 Kasey Hill 6-1 180 Jr, 8.4pts, 2.7reb, 3.0ast, 1.4stls, .273 3pt%
Key Reserves
F #3 Devin Robinson 6-8 195 So, 8.8pts, 5.8reb, .290 3pt%
F #24 Justin Leon 6-8 196 Jr, 5.1pts, 2.7reb, .471 3pt%
F #13 Kevarrius Hayes 6-9 210 Fr, 2.3pts, 2.8reb, no 3pt threat
G/F #1 DeVon Walker 6-6 203 Jr, 2.2pts, 1.8reb, .105 3pt%
G #2 Brandone Francis-Ramirez 6-5 205 Fr, 2.2pts, 1.2reb, .118 3pt%
F/C #32 Schuyler Rimmer 6-10 245 Jr, 2.1pts, 1.7reb
G #2 Brandone Francis-Ramirez 6-5 205 Fr, 2.0pts, 1.0reb, .182 3pt%
Team Stats
Points per game 75.0
Points allowed 65.8
Scoring margin +9.2
Field goal pct .430
FG% allowed .392
3-point FG pct .327
3pt% allowed .312
Free throw pct .646
Rebounds per game 41.1
Rebounds allowed 37.7
Rebounding margin +3.4
Assists per game 13.3
Turnovers per game 11.8
Turnover margin +1.9
Assist/turnover ratio 1.1
Steals per game 6.9
Blocks per game 4.5
KenPom Stats (Florida #23)
Strengths
#9 in defensive efficiency
#15 in effective FG% defense
#25 in 2pt% defense
#36 in 3pt% defense
Weaknesses
#317 in FT% (64.7%)
#247 in 3pt% (32.7%)
#218 in fg% efficiency
Analysis: Florida enters today’s game with Kentucky riding pretty high, after winning 5 of their last 6 games, including a big win over West Virginia, which was a big resume booster for the Gators. Meanwhile, Kentucky is fresh off back to back losses and licking its wounds. Today’s game is a big one for both teams. Florida is needing to further bolster its tournament resume after a lackluster nonconference season and Kentucky is needing to stop the bleeding and keep this from becoming a losing “streak.” Also on the line is UK’s home winning streak.
Mike White is in his first season at Florida and has the Gators playing a frenetic, pressing style of basketball. This is the style he developed at Louisiana Tech, and he’s carried it over the Florida. They will play a bunch of guys in every game, trying to keep them fresh for the press. It’s a similar style to what Kentucky played back in the 90s under Pitino. They have started multiple line-ups this season. It seems Mike White chooses his starters based on how he thinks they’ll match-up with the opponent. The 3 guys who have started pretty much every game are Finney-Smith, KeVaughn Allen, and Chris Chiozza. The others rotate depending on the opponent. I’ve projected this line-up based on matching UK’s 3-guard starting line-up. The other guys we might see are Devin Robinson and Justin Leon.
When you look at Florida, the most important player is Dorian Finney-Smith, the 6-8 senior forward. He’s their go-to guy when they’re in need of a bucket. He’s scoring 15.1 points and pulling down 8.2 rebounds. He’s definitely a stretch 4, and is shooting the ball at nearly 42% from 3pt range on the season. Joining him in the front court is John Egbunu, a 6-11 255 center who isn’t very polished offensively yet but is tough inside and finds a way to get his points. He’s averaging 10.7 points per game and 6.3 rebounds and will be a tough match-up for our interior players.
In the backcourt, the guy with the ball in his hands most of the time is sophomore Chris Chiozza. He’s a guy UK fans know well. He’s not a huge scorer but he leads the team in assists and is able to knock down the three if left open, shooting about 34% from distance. The other guard who has started pretty much every game his season is KeVaughn Allen, a 6-2 freshman who has been coming on as the season has progressed. He’s good in the open floor shoots the three at 32.6%. He’s been one of their most consistent scorers on the season, which is why he’s in the starting line-up. He’s 2nd on the team in scoring and is also an excellent defender in the press. The third guard I think will start today is Kasey Hill, the 6-1 junior who plays with the ball and off the ball for the Gators. Since Chiozza came along, he’s been playing off the ball more. I think he’ll start this game because he’s an upperclassmen who has more experience playing in Rupp Arena more than their other guards and more big game experience in general. He’s 5th in scoring and is excellent at getting to the rim but the reason he doesn’t get even more minutes is because he struggles shooting the ball, only making 27% of his threes.
From the bench the Gators play a bunch of guys. The most important guys are probably Devin Robinson, Justin Leon, and Kevarrius Hayes. Robinson or Leon may start today instead of Kasey Hill, if Mike White thinks it’s a better match-up, but Hill has started the last 2 games, which includes that big win over West Va. Robinson is 4th on the team in scoring and 3rd in rebounding, so we’ll see a lot of him, whether he starts or not. He’s a 6-8 sophomore who played a lot for Donovan last season as well. Justin Leon is a 6-8 junior forward who does a bit of everything, but the thing he does best is makes a high percentage from 3, making 47.1% from distance. The Gators have a bunch of other guys who come in to give minutes and focus on defense, but these are the guys who could beat you. I’ve listed them all above.
I don’t know what to expect in this game. I’m hoping to see a renewed intensity on the part of our Cats. Florida is rated ahead of Kentucky according to KenPom, so this should be a tough game on paper. They’re much better than Auburn or Tennessee, I guarantee. Florida will press the whole game, especially if they’re getting some turnovers out of it. That actually should play into UK’s hands, since our Cats are excellent handling the ball and in the open floor, and usually finish well on the break. Teams that have tried to up-tempo UK this season have come away with an L.
A bigger question, in my mind, today will be the psyche and confidence of this UK team. How will they respond to losing 2 straight games as they did? The way they lost those games could shake their confidence. Then again, the Cats may come out very focused and playing with intensity and they might put on a strong performance against Florida. One thing is sure, there is no taking Florida lightly at this point. Florida’s 3pt stats look bad for the season but most of those misses came early on. In recent games, the Gators have been lighting it up from downtown. They definitely have the firepower to knock UK off, even in Rupp Arena. So, our boys better come out ready to play today. I expect they’ll be ready.
Prediction: Kentucky 79 Florida 71
