Davidson Wildcats
Conference Affiliation: Atlantic 10
Head Coach: Bob McKillop (554-336 .622) 29th Season
Overall Record: 21-11, Home: 11-2, Away: 6-8, Neutral: 4-1
2018 Schedule/ Results
11/10/17 CHARLESTON SOUTHERN W 110-62
11/14/17 UNCW W 108-81
11/21/17 at Nevada L 68-81
11/25/17 at Appalachian State L 62-78
11/28/17 at Charlotte W 85-70
12/01/17 NORTH CAROLINA L 75-85
12/05/17 VMI W 74-51
12/16/17 at Virginia L 60-80
12/22/17 vs New Mexico State L 68-69
12/23/17 at Hawai'I L 71-79
12/25/17 vs Akron W 91-78
12/30/17 at Richmond L 58-69
01/03/18 SAINT LOUIS W 54-51
01/07/18 at George Mason W 86-59
01/10/18 GEORGE WASHINGTON W 72-45
01/14/18 at Fordham W 75-45
01/19/18 ST. BONAVENTURE W 83-73
01/23/18 at Dayton L 64-65
01/28/18 RICHMOND L 63-66
01/31/18 LA SALLE W 84-65
02/03/18 at George Washington W 87-58
02/06/18 SAINT JOSEPH'S W 91-62
02/09/18 at Rhode Island L 59-72
02/14/18 at VCU W 74-63
02/17/18 MASSACHUSETTS W 83-78
02/21/18 FORDHAM W 76-52 3212
02/24/18 at Duquesne W 71-60
02/27/18 at St. Bonaventure L (3OT) 113-117
03/02/18 RHODE ISLAND W 63-61
03/09/18 vs SAINT LOUIS W 78-60
03/10/18 vs ST. BONAVENTURE W 82-70
03/11/18 vs RHODE ISLAND W 58-57
A-10 Tournament Champs
Game information: 3/15/18 Kentucky vs Davidson
Boise, Idaho at 7:10 pm EST on CBS
Probable Starters
F #15 Oskar Michelson 6-9 220 Sr 5.5pts, 2.5reb, .396 3pt%
F #23 Peyton Aldridge 6-8 225 Sr 21.5pts*, 7.8reb*, 2.5ast, .394 3pt%
G #31 Kellan Grady 6-5 195 Fr 18.0pts, 3.3reb, 1.9ast, .377 3pt%
G #20 KiShawn Pritchett 6-6 225 So 5.9pts, 2.2reb, 3.4ast, .425 3pt%
G #3 Jon Gudmundsson 6-4 190 So 13.0pts, 6.1reb, 5.1ast*, .396 3pt%
Key Reserves
C #22 Will Magarity 6-11 250 Sr 5.5pts, 4.1reb, .389 3pt%
G #32 Rusty Reigel 6-2 210 Sr 3.8pts, 2.6reb, 1.7ast, .509 3p%*
G #24 Carter Collins 6-3 180 Fr 1.5pts, 0.8reb, .143 3pt%
Team Stats
Points per game 76.4
Points allowed 67.6
Scoring margin +8.9
Field goal pct .483
FG% defense .437
3-point FG % .391
3pt% defense .352
3-pt FG per game 10.7
Free Throw % .797
Rebounds per game 32.8
Rebounds allowed 31.4
Rebounding margin +1.4
Assists per game 16.8
Turnovers per game 9.6
Assist/turnover ratio 1.8
Turnovers forced 10.7
Turnover margin +1.1
Steals per game 4.8
Blocks per game 2.0
KenPom Breakdown
Best Stats (#18 in offensive efficiency)
#4 in FT% at 79.7%
#7 in turnover % (turnovers on only 14.5% of possessions)
#9 in 2pt% at 56.8%
#11 in effective FG% at 57.7%
#27 in 3pt% at 39.1%
Worst Stats (#115 in defensive efficiency)
#344 in FTA/FGA (they don’t get to the line much)
#322 in offensive rebounding %
#315 in block% (they block only 6.2% of shots)
#302 in defensive turnover % (16.2%)
#289 in steal % (7.3%)
#196 in effective FG% defense
#185 in defensive 3pt% (allowing 35.2%)
#180 in defensive 2pt% (allowing 50%)
Analysis: It looks like we’re gonna have to beat a pair of Wildcat teams to escape from Boise, Idaho. If you’re like me, you don’t know very much about Davidson this season, so I thought I’d write a scouting report to figure out what to expect on Thursday. Tip time is 7:10 EST and the game is on CBS.
The first thing that jumps out at me about Davidson is what we’ve seen from other Davidson teams in the past. They can shoot the ball well. In fact, all 5 starters shoot better than 37.7% from 3pt range, which is phenomenal. Their offensive numbers are very good. They shoot threes from everywhere and that will be even more exaggerated against UK. 3pt shots make up 42% of their total offense, which is 6th highest in the country. They shoot 39.1% from 3 as a team, which is 27th in the nation. But they’re not a one-trick pony. They shoot 2’s at an even better rate- 56.8% which is good for 9th in the nation. Defenses have to spend so much time defending the 3 that they give up back doors and easy lay-ups at times. And Davidson has enough inside to make teams pay for overplaying the 3pt line.
Now, if we’ve established how good Davidson is offensively, it must be noted that they’re nearly equally bad defensively. This has been their biggest problem all season. For example, they gave up 80 points to Virginia this season. The Cavaliers only exceeded that total twice all season, against Austin Peay and Hampton. So, that should tell you something. Davidson doesn’t block shots, they don’t force steals, they don’t defend the three well, and they allow teams to shoot 50% from 2.
From a player standpoint, everything keys on the play of their do-everything forward Peyton Aldridge. He’s a 6-8 225lb Senior who averages 21.5 points and 7.8 rebounds per game, which are both team highs. He also gets 2.5 assists per game and shoots the 3 at a 39.4% clip. So he can do a bit of everything. He averages 37.7 minutes per game for the Wildcats, so he rarely leaves the floor. His partner in crime from a scoring point of view is wing Kellan Grady, a 6-5 195lb Freshman who is averaging 18.0 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.9 assists while shooting 37.7% from 3. He’s not as good a shooter as the other guys in their top 7, but he’s a volume shooter who can get hot. He’s also the team’s best slasher and finisher in the open floor. Grady and Aldridge have combined for 384 three-pt attempts on the season. Just for comparison’s sake, UK’s entire team has only attempted 497 three-pointers on the season. Davidson has attempted 856 three pointers this season. The only other player averaging double-figure scoring for Davidson is another guy who rarely leaves the floor, their point guard Jon Gudmundsson, a 6-4 190lb Sophomore who averages 13 points, 6.1 rebounds, and a team leading 5.1 assists per game while shooting 39.6% from 3pt range. He also leads the team in steals with 44 on the season. These 3 guys are Davidson’s team. They either score on their own or create for others. The others on the team fill their roles.
The 4th and 5th starters are Oskar Michelson, and 6-9 220lb Senior who averages 5.5 points, 2.5 rebounds and shoots 39.6% from 3 and KiShawn Pritchett, a 6-6 225lb Sophomore who averages 5.9 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 3.4 assists while shooting 42.5% from 3. Michelson’s role is to defend the paint and guard the opponent’s biggest interior man. His other role is to spot up and shoot threes. Pritchett is in the game to facilitate some and also to spot up and shoot threes. From the bench, Davidson plays 2 guys mostly in center Will Magarity, a 6-11 250lb Senior who averages 5.5 points, 4.1 rebounds, shoots the 3 at 38.9%, and leads the team in blocked shots with 20 on the season; and Rusty Reigel a 6-2 210lb Senior guard who averages 3.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.7 assists while leading the team is 3pt percentage at 50.9%. These guys are basically interchangeable with Michelson and Pritchett in their roles. They all will spot up and shoot threes if left alone.
Looking at these shooting numbers is a bit scary for any team, but it should be noted that these numbers have been compiled against a much weaker schedule than UK has played. I’m sure A-10 fans would beg to differ, but KenPom tells me that Davidson has only played 1 top 50 team since December 16. In fact, St Bonaventure is the only other A-10 team in the top 100. The rest are below 100 and over half are below 150. They’ve made their stats against teams like George Mason, George Washington, LaSalle, Fordham, Duquesne, VCU, and UMass. The top team in that league all season was Rhode Island, and they really faded down the stretch from what I saw, opening the way for Davidson to win the conference tournament by 1 point. Without that win, they wouldn’t be here at all. So, their numbers look great but they can be a bit deceiving. They’re 1 point from being an NIT team.
The bottom line with this team is that you can’t let them spot up and shoot threes. We won’t be able to zone these guys. It will have to be man to man. Make them put the ball on the floor and they’re beat. We have the length to bother their shooters at every position. In fact, they haven’t seen length all season like UK will bring. So, force them to shoot as many tough 2’s as possible and this should be a fairly simple game. With their lack of defense, UK should get some good looks and be able to dominate inside all day. They don’t offensive rebound and they don’t block shots. They shoot free throws well but they don’t get to the line. Nobody should require a double-team. Because of their lack of quickness, we will likely see quite a bit of zone. They may start in man to man, but I think the zone will eventually be necessary.
Prediction: UK has defended the 3 pretty well all season and I expect that to continue. Davidson will still hit some threes and may keep it close for a while, but I think they’ll struggle with UK’s length and quickness across the board. Keeping Shai out of the lane will be a big problem.
Kentucky 80 Davidson 68
Conference Affiliation: Atlantic 10
Head Coach: Bob McKillop (554-336 .622) 29th Season
Overall Record: 21-11, Home: 11-2, Away: 6-8, Neutral: 4-1
2018 Schedule/ Results
11/10/17 CHARLESTON SOUTHERN W 110-62
11/14/17 UNCW W 108-81
11/21/17 at Nevada L 68-81
11/25/17 at Appalachian State L 62-78
11/28/17 at Charlotte W 85-70
12/01/17 NORTH CAROLINA L 75-85
12/05/17 VMI W 74-51
12/16/17 at Virginia L 60-80
12/22/17 vs New Mexico State L 68-69
12/23/17 at Hawai'I L 71-79
12/25/17 vs Akron W 91-78
12/30/17 at Richmond L 58-69
01/03/18 SAINT LOUIS W 54-51
01/07/18 at George Mason W 86-59
01/10/18 GEORGE WASHINGTON W 72-45
01/14/18 at Fordham W 75-45
01/19/18 ST. BONAVENTURE W 83-73
01/23/18 at Dayton L 64-65
01/28/18 RICHMOND L 63-66
01/31/18 LA SALLE W 84-65
02/03/18 at George Washington W 87-58
02/06/18 SAINT JOSEPH'S W 91-62
02/09/18 at Rhode Island L 59-72
02/14/18 at VCU W 74-63
02/17/18 MASSACHUSETTS W 83-78
02/21/18 FORDHAM W 76-52 3212
02/24/18 at Duquesne W 71-60
02/27/18 at St. Bonaventure L (3OT) 113-117
03/02/18 RHODE ISLAND W 63-61
03/09/18 vs SAINT LOUIS W 78-60
03/10/18 vs ST. BONAVENTURE W 82-70
03/11/18 vs RHODE ISLAND W 58-57
A-10 Tournament Champs
Game information: 3/15/18 Kentucky vs Davidson
Boise, Idaho at 7:10 pm EST on CBS
Probable Starters
F #15 Oskar Michelson 6-9 220 Sr 5.5pts, 2.5reb, .396 3pt%
F #23 Peyton Aldridge 6-8 225 Sr 21.5pts*, 7.8reb*, 2.5ast, .394 3pt%
G #31 Kellan Grady 6-5 195 Fr 18.0pts, 3.3reb, 1.9ast, .377 3pt%
G #20 KiShawn Pritchett 6-6 225 So 5.9pts, 2.2reb, 3.4ast, .425 3pt%
G #3 Jon Gudmundsson 6-4 190 So 13.0pts, 6.1reb, 5.1ast*, .396 3pt%
Key Reserves
C #22 Will Magarity 6-11 250 Sr 5.5pts, 4.1reb, .389 3pt%
G #32 Rusty Reigel 6-2 210 Sr 3.8pts, 2.6reb, 1.7ast, .509 3p%*
G #24 Carter Collins 6-3 180 Fr 1.5pts, 0.8reb, .143 3pt%
Team Stats
Points per game 76.4
Points allowed 67.6
Scoring margin +8.9
Field goal pct .483
FG% defense .437
3-point FG % .391
3pt% defense .352
3-pt FG per game 10.7
Free Throw % .797
Rebounds per game 32.8
Rebounds allowed 31.4
Rebounding margin +1.4
Assists per game 16.8
Turnovers per game 9.6
Assist/turnover ratio 1.8
Turnovers forced 10.7
Turnover margin +1.1
Steals per game 4.8
Blocks per game 2.0
KenPom Breakdown
Best Stats (#18 in offensive efficiency)
#4 in FT% at 79.7%
#7 in turnover % (turnovers on only 14.5% of possessions)
#9 in 2pt% at 56.8%
#11 in effective FG% at 57.7%
#27 in 3pt% at 39.1%
Worst Stats (#115 in defensive efficiency)
#344 in FTA/FGA (they don’t get to the line much)
#322 in offensive rebounding %
#315 in block% (they block only 6.2% of shots)
#302 in defensive turnover % (16.2%)
#289 in steal % (7.3%)
#196 in effective FG% defense
#185 in defensive 3pt% (allowing 35.2%)
#180 in defensive 2pt% (allowing 50%)
Analysis: It looks like we’re gonna have to beat a pair of Wildcat teams to escape from Boise, Idaho. If you’re like me, you don’t know very much about Davidson this season, so I thought I’d write a scouting report to figure out what to expect on Thursday. Tip time is 7:10 EST and the game is on CBS.
The first thing that jumps out at me about Davidson is what we’ve seen from other Davidson teams in the past. They can shoot the ball well. In fact, all 5 starters shoot better than 37.7% from 3pt range, which is phenomenal. Their offensive numbers are very good. They shoot threes from everywhere and that will be even more exaggerated against UK. 3pt shots make up 42% of their total offense, which is 6th highest in the country. They shoot 39.1% from 3 as a team, which is 27th in the nation. But they’re not a one-trick pony. They shoot 2’s at an even better rate- 56.8% which is good for 9th in the nation. Defenses have to spend so much time defending the 3 that they give up back doors and easy lay-ups at times. And Davidson has enough inside to make teams pay for overplaying the 3pt line.
Now, if we’ve established how good Davidson is offensively, it must be noted that they’re nearly equally bad defensively. This has been their biggest problem all season. For example, they gave up 80 points to Virginia this season. The Cavaliers only exceeded that total twice all season, against Austin Peay and Hampton. So, that should tell you something. Davidson doesn’t block shots, they don’t force steals, they don’t defend the three well, and they allow teams to shoot 50% from 2.
From a player standpoint, everything keys on the play of their do-everything forward Peyton Aldridge. He’s a 6-8 225lb Senior who averages 21.5 points and 7.8 rebounds per game, which are both team highs. He also gets 2.5 assists per game and shoots the 3 at a 39.4% clip. So he can do a bit of everything. He averages 37.7 minutes per game for the Wildcats, so he rarely leaves the floor. His partner in crime from a scoring point of view is wing Kellan Grady, a 6-5 195lb Freshman who is averaging 18.0 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.9 assists while shooting 37.7% from 3. He’s not as good a shooter as the other guys in their top 7, but he’s a volume shooter who can get hot. He’s also the team’s best slasher and finisher in the open floor. Grady and Aldridge have combined for 384 three-pt attempts on the season. Just for comparison’s sake, UK’s entire team has only attempted 497 three-pointers on the season. Davidson has attempted 856 three pointers this season. The only other player averaging double-figure scoring for Davidson is another guy who rarely leaves the floor, their point guard Jon Gudmundsson, a 6-4 190lb Sophomore who averages 13 points, 6.1 rebounds, and a team leading 5.1 assists per game while shooting 39.6% from 3pt range. He also leads the team in steals with 44 on the season. These 3 guys are Davidson’s team. They either score on their own or create for others. The others on the team fill their roles.
The 4th and 5th starters are Oskar Michelson, and 6-9 220lb Senior who averages 5.5 points, 2.5 rebounds and shoots 39.6% from 3 and KiShawn Pritchett, a 6-6 225lb Sophomore who averages 5.9 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 3.4 assists while shooting 42.5% from 3. Michelson’s role is to defend the paint and guard the opponent’s biggest interior man. His other role is to spot up and shoot threes. Pritchett is in the game to facilitate some and also to spot up and shoot threes. From the bench, Davidson plays 2 guys mostly in center Will Magarity, a 6-11 250lb Senior who averages 5.5 points, 4.1 rebounds, shoots the 3 at 38.9%, and leads the team in blocked shots with 20 on the season; and Rusty Reigel a 6-2 210lb Senior guard who averages 3.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.7 assists while leading the team is 3pt percentage at 50.9%. These guys are basically interchangeable with Michelson and Pritchett in their roles. They all will spot up and shoot threes if left alone.
Looking at these shooting numbers is a bit scary for any team, but it should be noted that these numbers have been compiled against a much weaker schedule than UK has played. I’m sure A-10 fans would beg to differ, but KenPom tells me that Davidson has only played 1 top 50 team since December 16. In fact, St Bonaventure is the only other A-10 team in the top 100. The rest are below 100 and over half are below 150. They’ve made their stats against teams like George Mason, George Washington, LaSalle, Fordham, Duquesne, VCU, and UMass. The top team in that league all season was Rhode Island, and they really faded down the stretch from what I saw, opening the way for Davidson to win the conference tournament by 1 point. Without that win, they wouldn’t be here at all. So, their numbers look great but they can be a bit deceiving. They’re 1 point from being an NIT team.
The bottom line with this team is that you can’t let them spot up and shoot threes. We won’t be able to zone these guys. It will have to be man to man. Make them put the ball on the floor and they’re beat. We have the length to bother their shooters at every position. In fact, they haven’t seen length all season like UK will bring. So, force them to shoot as many tough 2’s as possible and this should be a fairly simple game. With their lack of defense, UK should get some good looks and be able to dominate inside all day. They don’t offensive rebound and they don’t block shots. They shoot free throws well but they don’t get to the line. Nobody should require a double-team. Because of their lack of quickness, we will likely see quite a bit of zone. They may start in man to man, but I think the zone will eventually be necessary.
Prediction: UK has defended the 3 pretty well all season and I expect that to continue. Davidson will still hit some threes and may keep it close for a while, but I think they’ll struggle with UK’s length and quickness across the board. Keeping Shai out of the lane will be a big problem.
Kentucky 80 Davidson 68
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