Alabama Crimson Tide
Head Coach: Anthony Grant
Record: 12-4
Home: 10-0
SEC: 2-1
Schedule
TOWSON W 82-54
WESTERN CAROLINA W 80-74
SOUTHERN MISS W 81-67
neutral Iowa State L 74-84
neutral Arizona State W 76-71
SOUTH FLORIDA W 82-71
at Xavier L 84-97
TENNESSEE TECH W 65-53
at Wichita State L 52-53
STILLMAN W 69-49
APPALACHIAN STATE W 60-59
UCLA W 56-50
NORTH FLORIDA W 76-61
TEXAS A&M W 65-44
at Tennessee W 56-38
at South Carolina L 66-68
Probable Starters
F Jimmie Taylor 6-10 240 So 4.8 pts, 5.1 reb, 1.8 blocks, .627fg, .481ft, .000 3fg
F Michael Kessens 6-9 223 Jr 7.5pts, 5.6 reb, .544fg, .676ft, .222 3fg
G Levi Randolph 6-5 208 Sr 15.1pts, 4.8reb, 2.9 ast, 1.6 stl, .487 fg, .849ft, .319 3fg
G Rodney Cooper 6-6 218 Sr 10.7pts, 4.1reb, 1.9ast, .486fg, .833ft, .407 3fg
G Ricky Tarrant 6-2 190 Jr 13.3pts, 2.2 reb, 2.3 ast, 1.5 stl , .413fg, .797ft, .299 3fg
From the Bench
F Shannon Hale 6-8 226 Jr 7.8pts, 3.4reb, 1.2ast, .398fg, .702ft, .217 3fg
G-F Riley Norris 6-7 207 Fr 4.8 pts, 3.9 reb, .491fg, .563ft, .458 3fg
G Justin Coleman 5-10 160 Fr 4.7 pts, 1.1reb, 1.4ast .291fg, .765ft, .226 3fg
G Retin Obasohan 6-1 208 Jr 2.9 pts, 2.0reb, .419fg, .560ft, .333 3fg
Team Stats
Points per game 70.2
Points allowed 62.1
Scoring margin +8.2
Field goal pct .449
FG% allowed .407
3-point FG pct .300
3pt FG% allowed .317
3-pt FG made per game 6.3
Free throw pct .736
Rebounds per game 33.6
Rebounds allowed 33.1
Rebounding margin +0.5
Assists per game 12.2
Turnovers per game 12.2
Turnover margin +2.3
Assist/turnover ratio 1.0
Steals per game 7.6
Blocks per game 3.8
Analysis
This season Anthony Grant returns a veteran team for a season many thought he might never see. But here he is and he's sitting on a 12-4 record (2-1 SEC) and has a chance to get a new contract with a good season and an NCAA berth. But that remains to be seen. One of the first things that jumps out at me about the Crimson Tide is that they still lack a quality win. They came oh so close at Wichita St. I saw that game and they should have won, but the fact that they choked it away tells the story of their season so far. Wichita St is a tough out on their home floor, but let's not kid ourselves, they aren't nearly as good as they were last season. Outside of that near miss, Bama's best win was a 56-50 win over UCLA in Tuscaloosa, and we all know what UK did to the Bruins on a neutral court. I should hasten to add, Alabama is 10-0 at home this season, but even that is a bit deceiving. Of those 10 opponents, none is a top 50 team according to KenPom and 8 of those 10 are #160 or worse by that same system. So, that 10-0 home record may not mean much. But this will be a sell-out for Bama, their first sell-out since... (you guessed it) the Cats came calling 2 years ago. So, I'm sure the crowd will be hyped and the energy will help the Tide play over their heads.
Looking at personnel, the best player on the team is a guy we all know well, Levi Randolph, the 6-5 wing who is finally a senior and seems he's been there for a decade. He leads the team in points, assists, steals, ft attempts, ft%, and minutes played. As a matter of fact, he rarely leaves the floor, and I expect he won't go to the bench at all against UK unless he's in foul trouble. It would seem that Alabama goes as Randolph goes, but that doesn't bear out statistically. When you look closely, the truth is that Randolph pretty much always gets his points, but the game usually goes for Alabama as their frontcourt players go.
Beyond Randolph, the top scorers for Alabama are their other guards, Ricky Tarrant (13.3) and Rodney Cooper (10.7). Tarrant is a guy who likes to get into the lane and force the action. He will force things at times and take bad shots. He really likes to shoot the 3 but doesn't shoot them very well. Cooper doesn't shoot as much but he's more efficient, shooting over 40% from 3 and nearly 50% from the floor. Cooper has good size for the 3 spot at 6-6 218 and is a solid rebounder as well. Beyond Cooper, though, this is not a good 3pt shooting team, shooting only 30% from beyond the arc. If they are to pull off the upset, they'll need to shoot the 3 much better than that.
In the frontcourt, Alabama is not as strong. They have decent size- Michael Kessens is 6-9 and Jimmie Taylor is 6-10- and these guys lead the team in rebounding, but not by much. Actually, Randolph and Cooper are just behind behind them in rebounding. This is likely Alabama's achilles and the reason they've struggled against their opponents with decent frontcourts. If you look at their team stats, you'll see that they only have a +0.5 rebounding margin, a virtual tie. They are decent on the defensive backboards but don't get many second shots because of their lack of rebounding ability. Alabama only plays 3 guys 6-8 or over and only one of those players weighs more than 226. They don't have much beef down low. From a scoring perspective, their best big man comes off the bench in Shannon Hale, who is 4th on the team in scoring but isn't as good defensively as the other forwards.
Alabama's greatest strength is its defensive efficiency, where kenpom rates them #34 in the nation. They are an experienced team that usually doesn't beat themselves, especially on their home floor. They are a very deliberate team offensively, even if they aren't very efficient. They will milk the clock and work for a good shot every time down the floor. They don't usually jack up a bunch of threes unless they are badly needed. Defensively, they are excellent at staying in front of their man and forcing opponents to work hard at getting good shots. The thing that kills them at times is giving up rebounds, allowing a high percentage second shot.
From the bench, Alabama doesn't have many huge contributions. Their starters account for over 70% of their scoring and another 10% comes from their top bench scorer, forward Shannon Hale. The rest of the bench is not very productive offensively. Norris, Coleman, and Obasohan are all guards who get a decent amount of minutes as role players but don't score much. As I said above, their starters get the bulk of the minutes and shot attempts, and that is primarily because the Tide lacks much talent from the bench.
I fully expect Alabama to be very tough at home against UK. KenPom rates this game as the 4th toughest on UK's SEC slate (actually tied for 3rd with At South Carolina). Still, he gives the Cats an 82% chance of winning. The question that remains, at least in my mind, is this: which team will show up for UK in this game, the one that destroyed Missouri with stifling defense or the one that went to Double Overtime to beat TX A&M last Saturday? If our Cats play with the same intensity they did against A&M, they'll lose this one. If they come out with intensity and match Alabama's effort, they'll win by a fairly comfortable margin in the end. I think our Cats got their wake-up call in those first two league games and learned that they can still dominate against Missouri, so I expect they'll continue their strong play in this one. I also think that Alabama will struggle in the front court against UK both offensively and defensively. UK should have a significant rebounding edge in this game and will likely get multiple second shots even if the three isn't falling.
Prediction: Kentucky 64 Alabama 50
This post was edited on 1/16 11:30 PM by IL Wildcat
Head Coach: Anthony Grant
Record: 12-4
Home: 10-0
SEC: 2-1
Schedule
TOWSON W 82-54
WESTERN CAROLINA W 80-74
SOUTHERN MISS W 81-67
neutral Iowa State L 74-84
neutral Arizona State W 76-71
SOUTH FLORIDA W 82-71
at Xavier L 84-97
TENNESSEE TECH W 65-53
at Wichita State L 52-53
STILLMAN W 69-49
APPALACHIAN STATE W 60-59
UCLA W 56-50
NORTH FLORIDA W 76-61
TEXAS A&M W 65-44
at Tennessee W 56-38
at South Carolina L 66-68
Probable Starters
F Jimmie Taylor 6-10 240 So 4.8 pts, 5.1 reb, 1.8 blocks, .627fg, .481ft, .000 3fg
F Michael Kessens 6-9 223 Jr 7.5pts, 5.6 reb, .544fg, .676ft, .222 3fg
G Levi Randolph 6-5 208 Sr 15.1pts, 4.8reb, 2.9 ast, 1.6 stl, .487 fg, .849ft, .319 3fg
G Rodney Cooper 6-6 218 Sr 10.7pts, 4.1reb, 1.9ast, .486fg, .833ft, .407 3fg
G Ricky Tarrant 6-2 190 Jr 13.3pts, 2.2 reb, 2.3 ast, 1.5 stl , .413fg, .797ft, .299 3fg
From the Bench
F Shannon Hale 6-8 226 Jr 7.8pts, 3.4reb, 1.2ast, .398fg, .702ft, .217 3fg
G-F Riley Norris 6-7 207 Fr 4.8 pts, 3.9 reb, .491fg, .563ft, .458 3fg
G Justin Coleman 5-10 160 Fr 4.7 pts, 1.1reb, 1.4ast .291fg, .765ft, .226 3fg
G Retin Obasohan 6-1 208 Jr 2.9 pts, 2.0reb, .419fg, .560ft, .333 3fg
Team Stats
Points per game 70.2
Points allowed 62.1
Scoring margin +8.2
Field goal pct .449
FG% allowed .407
3-point FG pct .300
3pt FG% allowed .317
3-pt FG made per game 6.3
Free throw pct .736
Rebounds per game 33.6
Rebounds allowed 33.1
Rebounding margin +0.5
Assists per game 12.2
Turnovers per game 12.2
Turnover margin +2.3
Assist/turnover ratio 1.0
Steals per game 7.6
Blocks per game 3.8
Analysis
This season Anthony Grant returns a veteran team for a season many thought he might never see. But here he is and he's sitting on a 12-4 record (2-1 SEC) and has a chance to get a new contract with a good season and an NCAA berth. But that remains to be seen. One of the first things that jumps out at me about the Crimson Tide is that they still lack a quality win. They came oh so close at Wichita St. I saw that game and they should have won, but the fact that they choked it away tells the story of their season so far. Wichita St is a tough out on their home floor, but let's not kid ourselves, they aren't nearly as good as they were last season. Outside of that near miss, Bama's best win was a 56-50 win over UCLA in Tuscaloosa, and we all know what UK did to the Bruins on a neutral court. I should hasten to add, Alabama is 10-0 at home this season, but even that is a bit deceiving. Of those 10 opponents, none is a top 50 team according to KenPom and 8 of those 10 are #160 or worse by that same system. So, that 10-0 home record may not mean much. But this will be a sell-out for Bama, their first sell-out since... (you guessed it) the Cats came calling 2 years ago. So, I'm sure the crowd will be hyped and the energy will help the Tide play over their heads.
Looking at personnel, the best player on the team is a guy we all know well, Levi Randolph, the 6-5 wing who is finally a senior and seems he's been there for a decade. He leads the team in points, assists, steals, ft attempts, ft%, and minutes played. As a matter of fact, he rarely leaves the floor, and I expect he won't go to the bench at all against UK unless he's in foul trouble. It would seem that Alabama goes as Randolph goes, but that doesn't bear out statistically. When you look closely, the truth is that Randolph pretty much always gets his points, but the game usually goes for Alabama as their frontcourt players go.
Beyond Randolph, the top scorers for Alabama are their other guards, Ricky Tarrant (13.3) and Rodney Cooper (10.7). Tarrant is a guy who likes to get into the lane and force the action. He will force things at times and take bad shots. He really likes to shoot the 3 but doesn't shoot them very well. Cooper doesn't shoot as much but he's more efficient, shooting over 40% from 3 and nearly 50% from the floor. Cooper has good size for the 3 spot at 6-6 218 and is a solid rebounder as well. Beyond Cooper, though, this is not a good 3pt shooting team, shooting only 30% from beyond the arc. If they are to pull off the upset, they'll need to shoot the 3 much better than that.
In the frontcourt, Alabama is not as strong. They have decent size- Michael Kessens is 6-9 and Jimmie Taylor is 6-10- and these guys lead the team in rebounding, but not by much. Actually, Randolph and Cooper are just behind behind them in rebounding. This is likely Alabama's achilles and the reason they've struggled against their opponents with decent frontcourts. If you look at their team stats, you'll see that they only have a +0.5 rebounding margin, a virtual tie. They are decent on the defensive backboards but don't get many second shots because of their lack of rebounding ability. Alabama only plays 3 guys 6-8 or over and only one of those players weighs more than 226. They don't have much beef down low. From a scoring perspective, their best big man comes off the bench in Shannon Hale, who is 4th on the team in scoring but isn't as good defensively as the other forwards.
Alabama's greatest strength is its defensive efficiency, where kenpom rates them #34 in the nation. They are an experienced team that usually doesn't beat themselves, especially on their home floor. They are a very deliberate team offensively, even if they aren't very efficient. They will milk the clock and work for a good shot every time down the floor. They don't usually jack up a bunch of threes unless they are badly needed. Defensively, they are excellent at staying in front of their man and forcing opponents to work hard at getting good shots. The thing that kills them at times is giving up rebounds, allowing a high percentage second shot.
From the bench, Alabama doesn't have many huge contributions. Their starters account for over 70% of their scoring and another 10% comes from their top bench scorer, forward Shannon Hale. The rest of the bench is not very productive offensively. Norris, Coleman, and Obasohan are all guards who get a decent amount of minutes as role players but don't score much. As I said above, their starters get the bulk of the minutes and shot attempts, and that is primarily because the Tide lacks much talent from the bench.
I fully expect Alabama to be very tough at home against UK. KenPom rates this game as the 4th toughest on UK's SEC slate (actually tied for 3rd with At South Carolina). Still, he gives the Cats an 82% chance of winning. The question that remains, at least in my mind, is this: which team will show up for UK in this game, the one that destroyed Missouri with stifling defense or the one that went to Double Overtime to beat TX A&M last Saturday? If our Cats play with the same intensity they did against A&M, they'll lose this one. If they come out with intensity and match Alabama's effort, they'll win by a fairly comfortable margin in the end. I think our Cats got their wake-up call in those first two league games and learned that they can still dominate against Missouri, so I expect they'll continue their strong play in this one. I also think that Alabama will struggle in the front court against UK both offensively and defensively. UK should have a significant rebounding edge in this game and will likely get multiple second shots even if the three isn't falling.
Prediction: Kentucky 64 Alabama 50
This post was edited on 1/16 11:30 PM by IL Wildcat
