Round by round probabilities from EvanMiya
- Thread starter ukcatz12
- Start date
Duke is the team all these media people and number guys are trying to convince themselves is a threat because they like scheyer, Duke has no frontcourt outside of Filipowski and theirs guards are inconsistent,
Auburn is quite strong according to a number of metrics. EvanMiya has them ranked 3rd.
Same chance of winning it all as the Zags. This sure in the hell aint Vegas's line.
IIRC, undefeated 2015 UK had a 25% chance to win it all according to Vegas and that was the shortest odds ever. No way UConn has 23% if my memory serves.
Coin flip against Texas Tech, if I am being honest with myself and applying this season’s track record, that’s where we finish…
It's funny that they have a greater chance of losing the first 3 rounds but a better chance in the last 3 games. 🤣
He doesn’t love any team. This is just an advanced metric algorithm like KenPom, it’s numbers in, numbers or. There’s no Duke bias built in.
It’s the guy who used to do all this for 538.
Duke and Auburn are clearly the case of resume vs efficiency (computer metrics).
They got 4s due to the crappy resume. They have better odds due to the computer metrics.
They got 4s due to the crappy resume. They have better odds due to the computer metrics.
Thanks for posting this. I wondered if this had gone anywhere since I wasn't seeing this stuff on 538 anymore.
Almost everyone at 538 got laid off last year and their sports coverage basically stopped.
Hell, 1 seed UNC has less of a chance than 4 seed Auburn according to the metrics.
Metrics are an interesting thing. It has UK having a better chance than Illinois and Alabama of reaching the Sweet 16, Elite Eight, Final Four and Title Game, but both of those teams have a better chance of winning the title.
I'm not sure that's the point. 3 of the 3 seeds are all relatively close to one another in their chances of making the Sweet 16. Also, in the bottom portion of the South bracket, Kentucky has the highest chance of reaching the Elite Eight, meaning we are the favorites to advance to the Elite Eight according to those metrics.
It also illustrates that teams are closer to each other than some would like to admit.
If we face Texas Tech, we'll be favored but it will only be by a point or two. I mean sure you could take that as a knock on UK and where we are currently at but the truth of the matter is unless u are at the top, there's not a ton of difference here.
If we face Texas Tech, we'll be favored but it will only be by a point or two. I mean sure you could take that as a knock on UK and where we are currently at but the truth of the matter is unless u are at the top, there's not a ton of difference here.
If you're talking about where we currently are and the percentages as a 3 seed...no, I'm not disgusted as it seems right in line.
If you're talking about where I thought we would be when the season started, yes, I think that percentage should be higher.
The two teams I really liked before the bracket was revealed ended up in the same region: UConn and Iowa St.
I thought that was interesting.
I really thought Iowa St. should have been the 1 in the West over UNC. They should have been.
The winner of that matchup (if it happens) should be the favorite in the Final Four, IMHO.
I thought that was interesting.
I really thought Iowa St. should have been the 1 in the West over UNC. They should have been.
The winner of that matchup (if it happens) should be the favorite in the Final Four, IMHO.
Duke hasn’t beaten anyone all year…do they have like a million quad 2 and 3 wins pushing them up considering they didn’t beat a ranked opponent all year
