With Kentucky's first exhibition game rapidly approaching the staff here at Cats Illustrated has been discussing some of the key questions and issues facing this team, or as things seem on paper. Now I want to toss some questions to you all here for your feedback (because a lot of times you post good stuff and I steal it - hey, at least I'm admitting it). I'll bold my answers.
---- By season's end will Killeya-Jones or Gabriel be a more valuable and consistent player for Kentucky? And what exactly do you foreseen the role and production of each player being over the course of the whole year?
I'll say Killeya-Jones is a more consistent contributor, Gabriel shows flashes early but is sometimes erratic, but by the end of the season it's very much even, with Gabriel settling into a more defined role with his length and active play off the bench. They'll both be in an eight-man rotation, and Calipari will probably use them without any apparent rhyme or reason early before figuring out who he needs when later.
---- Start of the season to the finish, how's De'Aaron Fox going to fare? He ranks right in line with guys like Andrew Harrison, Marquis Teague and Brandon Knight. Was obviously incredible in the Blue-White scrimmage (which means what, exactly?). How steep a learning curve will there be? How much inconsistency? Will he start out drawing rave national reviews, like John Wall, or will his development be much more a gradual (linear or not) growth as in the case of some others?
Somewhere between John Wall and the others who took a while to put it together. I think his overall productivity, the quality of his play, etc., will be similar to Brandon Knight. Now, Knight had a huge hand in leading a team to the Final Four that was not one of Calipari's three most talented squads. So that'll be tough to match because even if UK makes the tournament's last weekend Fox is going to share more of the credit than Knight did (better cast, IMO). I think at times he's going to go through shooting slumps, but I think he'll avoid the worst of the criticism that guys like Teague, Harrison and even Knight (less so, but some early) faced.
---- Who will be Kentucky's leading scorer in 2016-17? My first instinct is Malik Monk because of the role he'll have and the mentality he seems to bring. John Calipari won't have to remind him he's allowed to shoot, I'm guessing. But could Bam Adebayo challenge him for the team's scoring lead? Maybe Fox or even Briscoe as a darkhorse? Obviously the simple number doesn't matter, but it speaks to how much the player is taking on and how much they'll assert themselves.
Malik Monk, because he wants to be that guy. Not saying he wants to be the scoring leader, but you won't have to tell him twice to attack. That's just his mode and Fox is a great complement who's going to set him up all season long. He should be able to score so many ways -- in transition, attacking the rim off the bounce in the half court, with the mid-range shot, even from deep, and (important) getting to the foul line.
---- What's your single biggest question about this Kentucky team other than the obvious (i.e. outside shooting OR the lack of proven great scorers on the low block). You can even disagree with those two things being questions (I don't...not saying they're problems, just questions). But other than that, we haven't heard much in the way of questions, concerns or unknowns. What are some?
Removing those two frequently asked questions makes this tougher, but I'll throw this in: Turnovers? This team's pace of play isn't going to rate high in KenPom's adjusted tempo rankings (although I do think KenPom's projection for this team is slightly too low), but they're going to play too fast at times even in the half court, because they're really fast and it'll be tempting, but also because they're young. I don't think that's going to hold them back from accomplishing what they're going to accomplish, but turnovers will be a topic of discussion at some point, if for no other reason than Tyler Ulis was on last year's team.
---- What is the most difficult game on Kentucky's schedule? Could it really be a home game (Kansas)? Or is it the Las Vegas matchup with a veteran North Carolina team? The trip to the Yum! center? Or Tom Izzo's Spartans, who always seem to play Kentucky very well, even if they have their own youth and questions?
Louisville on the road. I was leaning towards North Carolina in Las Vegas, but went with the Cards for a couple of reasons. Theo Pinson's injury (no timetable for returning and it's a recurring issue, sort of) cuts into their rotation by one early in the year. Plus it's neutral. I also think UK matches up pretty well with UNC. I do like a couple of UNC's guards but in the matchup between UK and UNC's guards, I know UK's guards will be able to stay in front of their opponents. I'm equally confident UNC's guards will not be able to stay in front of UK's. UNC's calling card is going to be length, athleticism and (they hope) another good defensive team, by Roy's standards. I actually just think Kentucky is similar, in some ways, but better in most respects. If UNC is an athletic, long team that can defend, Kentucky is a more athletic, longer team that can defend better. And shooting's an issue for them, too. As for Louisville, it's Kentucky-Louisville, it's on the road and I can't help but think "they're due." Even though it doesn't work that way. I would rank Michigan State third and Kansas fourth because it's at home.
---- Where would you rank Kentucky preseason. I'm not asking how far they'll go. I think that's a very different question. But in terms of projecting the nation's best 10 teams and beyond, where would the Cats fall if you were casting a preseason ballot? Use your own criteria.
I'd put Kentucky fourth, behind Villanova, Duke and Kansas, in that order. I actually think Kentucky has a higher probability of reaching the Final Four than a couple of those teams (at this point the odds for any of them reaching the Final Four would probably be surprisingly low, against the field), but I also think Kentucky's potential for an earlier-round loss is greater than a couple of those team's, save for the fact that Calipari has a great tournament record.
We've already had threads about season record predictions and Big Dance outcomes. We'll ask that later. But what are your responses to the above questions that a lot of people are talking about?
---- By season's end will Killeya-Jones or Gabriel be a more valuable and consistent player for Kentucky? And what exactly do you foreseen the role and production of each player being over the course of the whole year?
I'll say Killeya-Jones is a more consistent contributor, Gabriel shows flashes early but is sometimes erratic, but by the end of the season it's very much even, with Gabriel settling into a more defined role with his length and active play off the bench. They'll both be in an eight-man rotation, and Calipari will probably use them without any apparent rhyme or reason early before figuring out who he needs when later.
---- Start of the season to the finish, how's De'Aaron Fox going to fare? He ranks right in line with guys like Andrew Harrison, Marquis Teague and Brandon Knight. Was obviously incredible in the Blue-White scrimmage (which means what, exactly?). How steep a learning curve will there be? How much inconsistency? Will he start out drawing rave national reviews, like John Wall, or will his development be much more a gradual (linear or not) growth as in the case of some others?
Somewhere between John Wall and the others who took a while to put it together. I think his overall productivity, the quality of his play, etc., will be similar to Brandon Knight. Now, Knight had a huge hand in leading a team to the Final Four that was not one of Calipari's three most talented squads. So that'll be tough to match because even if UK makes the tournament's last weekend Fox is going to share more of the credit than Knight did (better cast, IMO). I think at times he's going to go through shooting slumps, but I think he'll avoid the worst of the criticism that guys like Teague, Harrison and even Knight (less so, but some early) faced.
---- Who will be Kentucky's leading scorer in 2016-17? My first instinct is Malik Monk because of the role he'll have and the mentality he seems to bring. John Calipari won't have to remind him he's allowed to shoot, I'm guessing. But could Bam Adebayo challenge him for the team's scoring lead? Maybe Fox or even Briscoe as a darkhorse? Obviously the simple number doesn't matter, but it speaks to how much the player is taking on and how much they'll assert themselves.
Malik Monk, because he wants to be that guy. Not saying he wants to be the scoring leader, but you won't have to tell him twice to attack. That's just his mode and Fox is a great complement who's going to set him up all season long. He should be able to score so many ways -- in transition, attacking the rim off the bounce in the half court, with the mid-range shot, even from deep, and (important) getting to the foul line.
---- What's your single biggest question about this Kentucky team other than the obvious (i.e. outside shooting OR the lack of proven great scorers on the low block). You can even disagree with those two things being questions (I don't...not saying they're problems, just questions). But other than that, we haven't heard much in the way of questions, concerns or unknowns. What are some?
Removing those two frequently asked questions makes this tougher, but I'll throw this in: Turnovers? This team's pace of play isn't going to rate high in KenPom's adjusted tempo rankings (although I do think KenPom's projection for this team is slightly too low), but they're going to play too fast at times even in the half court, because they're really fast and it'll be tempting, but also because they're young. I don't think that's going to hold them back from accomplishing what they're going to accomplish, but turnovers will be a topic of discussion at some point, if for no other reason than Tyler Ulis was on last year's team.
---- What is the most difficult game on Kentucky's schedule? Could it really be a home game (Kansas)? Or is it the Las Vegas matchup with a veteran North Carolina team? The trip to the Yum! center? Or Tom Izzo's Spartans, who always seem to play Kentucky very well, even if they have their own youth and questions?
Louisville on the road. I was leaning towards North Carolina in Las Vegas, but went with the Cards for a couple of reasons. Theo Pinson's injury (no timetable for returning and it's a recurring issue, sort of) cuts into their rotation by one early in the year. Plus it's neutral. I also think UK matches up pretty well with UNC. I do like a couple of UNC's guards but in the matchup between UK and UNC's guards, I know UK's guards will be able to stay in front of their opponents. I'm equally confident UNC's guards will not be able to stay in front of UK's. UNC's calling card is going to be length, athleticism and (they hope) another good defensive team, by Roy's standards. I actually just think Kentucky is similar, in some ways, but better in most respects. If UNC is an athletic, long team that can defend, Kentucky is a more athletic, longer team that can defend better. And shooting's an issue for them, too. As for Louisville, it's Kentucky-Louisville, it's on the road and I can't help but think "they're due." Even though it doesn't work that way. I would rank Michigan State third and Kansas fourth because it's at home.
---- Where would you rank Kentucky preseason. I'm not asking how far they'll go. I think that's a very different question. But in terms of projecting the nation's best 10 teams and beyond, where would the Cats fall if you were casting a preseason ballot? Use your own criteria.
I'd put Kentucky fourth, behind Villanova, Duke and Kansas, in that order. I actually think Kentucky has a higher probability of reaching the Final Four than a couple of those teams (at this point the odds for any of them reaching the Final Four would probably be surprisingly low, against the field), but I also think Kentucky's potential for an earlier-round loss is greater than a couple of those team's, save for the fact that Calipari has a great tournament record.
We've already had threads about season record predictions and Big Dance outcomes. We'll ask that later. But what are your responses to the above questions that a lot of people are talking about?
