Paul Biancardi: Five potential one-and-dones to watch for the 2017 NBA draft

[Catswin9]

For NBA fans (and college fans), who are the freshmen to watch? Who are the top prospects for the 2017 draft in this star-studded class?


Over the last two years, 15 college freshmen went on to become lottery picks in the NBA draft. But despite that impressive number, it's no lock that being a highly rated high school prospect will translate into being a high draft choice.

What doesn't get mentioned as much are the freshmen who came out and went in the second round, including Deyonta Davis, Cheick Diallo, Diamond Stone and Stephen Zimmerman. Declaring is not a risk-free proposition.

From a scouting perspective, the 2017 freshmen class for college basketball is exceptional -- one of the best since the inception of ESPN Recruiting in 2007.

It has a combination of elite athletes, positional size, versatility and skill, traits that should make next year's draft very compelling.

Let's take a look at five potential one-and-dones for the 2017 NBA draft.

(Note: ESPN No. 1 Harry Giles, who tore his ACL back in November, will join this list when he gets healthy and hits the court at Duke.)


Josh Jackson | SF | Kansas

2016 ESPN Recruiting Rank: No. 2

Jackson's competitive nature separates him from everyone in this class.

Offensively, he scores with ease off the dribble, on the glass and in his post-up game. He is a better passer and playmaker than he gets credit for, and his unselfishness influences the game.


Two areas that he needs to improve upon are his jump-shooting -- especially from behind the college arc -- and developing a more effective handle to create his own shot.

Jackson is the most versatile defender in the class. He understands how to play against smaller, quicker guards and he is athletic and tough enough to play defense in the post. He's a tough matchup because he impacts the game in so many different ways.

We should hear his name called early in next year's NBA draft.


Jayson Tatum | SF | Duke

2016 ESPN Recruiting Rank: No. 3

Tatum is a polished and fluid offensive player, and perhaps the most versatile scoring threat in this freshmen class.

He has corrected his 3-point shot and now has made himself a legitimate threat from behind the arc. His mid-range game is highly efficient; he has the ability to knock down jumpers off screens or by using his signature step-back jumper.

Tatum also possesses an impressive ability to get to the rim and is able to get in the post to score or pass out of it, both traits that enhance his versatility.

However, his defensive intensity must improve and he must hold himself accountable on that end of the floor. Coach K should help in this regard, and his skills directly translate to the NBA game.


De'Aaron Fox | PG | Kentucky

2016 ESPN Recruiting Rank: No. 6

Blessed with blazing speed in the open floor, Fox has the found the balance between scoring and facilitating and will run the show at Kentucky. He scores best with a blow-by dribble and can penetrate, find open teammates or pull up, which makes him a big-time triple threat.

Fox knocks down open 3s with consistency, but he shines most in the transition game. Fox has terrific positional size to run the point at 6-foot-4 and will be surrounded by plenty of talent at UK.

He is the best perimeter defender coming into the college game and that will enhance his resume. With the departure of Tyler Ulis to the NBA, John Calipari will lean heavily on Fox.


Markelle Fultz | PG | Washington

2016 ESPN Recruiting Rank: No. 7

Fultz is a great story: He didn't play on varsity at DeMatha Catholic as a sophomore but made the squad the following season and was named the conference player of the year.

Fultz played extremely well in postseason events, especially at the Nike Hoop Summit, where he demonstrated the skills to play the point guard position while keeping his scoring up. He has displayed a high basketball IQ, plays well off the ball and understands floor balance and shot selection.


He does all this with terrific positional size (6-foot-5) with strong athletic ability. Fultz will have the ball in his hands and can be trusted to make the simple play or the winning play at Washington.


Dennis Smith Jr. | PG | NC State

2016 ESPN Recruiting Rank: Former No. 5

Let's not forget Smith, who was a top-five player in the class of 2016 but tore his ACL last August, graduated from high school early and then enrolled in N.C State in January. He is healthy now and is expected to be fully engaged in competition when the school year begins.

Powerful and explosive with the ability to get where he wants on the floor off the dribble, Smith is a strong finisher a with good floor presence. He is competitive, can score at will and, if he commits to defense, can be tough on the ball.

He must continue to grow into a leadership role and read the game, all while keeping his aggressive scoring nature.

He should become a key piece of the Wolfpack attack, as he'll have the ball in his hands from Day 1 for head coach Mark Gottfried, who will show him the nuances of playing the point guard position.


Five more names to know

Lonzo Ball, UCLA (No. 4)

Edrice Adebayo, Kentucky (No. 5)

Miles Bridges, Michigan State (No. 8)

Malik Monk, Kentucky (No. 9)

Jarrett Allen, Texas (No. 15)

 

[LineSkiCat14]

(Note: ESPN No. 1 Harry Giles, who tore his ACL back in November, will join this list when he gets healthy and hits the court at Duke.)

Interesting to hear Biancardi have reservations about Giles current status along with how he will fare in the NBA Draft. Meanwhile Duke fans have somehow spun a 2nd torn ACL into a benefit for Giles. Here's to hoping he doesn't blow one of his knees up again, or else he'll come back as the T-1000.

(Now someone put Giles face over John Connor's and make me laugh)

 

[Rhavicc]

He has corrected his 3-point shot and now has made himself a legitimate threat from behind the arc. His mid-range game is highly efficient; he has the ability to knock down jumpers off screens or by using his signature step-back jumper.

Tatum also possesses an impressive ability to get to the rim and is able to get in the post to score or pass out of it, both traits that enhance his versatility.

"Corrected" is not the term I would use. He's never shot above 30% from 3 in his career, neither high school, nor AAU, so I'm not going to believe that if you push the line further back, he'll begin to shoot it above 30%. His mid-range game is NBA level, nobody can doubt that, and he will knock down free throws all day.

Also, I'm not going to say much about his passing ability, because he barely passes the damn ball to begin with.

Lonzo Ball and Jarrett Allen are two players who shouldn't even think about going to the NBA draft in 2017. Ball can pass. His elite abilities start, and end there. He's very average athletically, turns the ball over a lot due to the nature of his passes (a lot of flash to them), has a horrendous jumper (in terms of both mechanics, and efficiency), and just doesn't bring a ton to the table in terms of scoring ability.
Jarrett Allen is just raw, and thin. He can hit his shots down low, and he has the tools to be a very good post defender, but his back-to-the-basket skillset is pretty unspectacular. He's going to need time to develop. Would honestly say he could be in school for 3 years, but at least 2.

 

[bucsrule8872]

"Corrected" is not the term I would use. He's never shot above 30% from 3 in his career, neither high school, nor AAU, so I'm not going to believe that if you push the line further back, he'll begin to shoot it above 30%. His mid-range game is NBA level, nobody can doubt that, and he will knock down free throws all day.

Also, I'm not going to say much about his passing ability, because he barely passes the damn ball to begin with.

Lonzo Ball and Jarrett Allen are two players who shouldn't even think about going to the NBA draft in 2017. Ball can pass. His elite abilities start, and end there. He's very average athletically, turns the ball over a lot due to the nature of his passes (a lot of flash to them), has a horrendous jumper (in terms of both mechanics, and efficiency), and just doesn't bring a ton to the table in terms of scoring ability.
Jarrett Allen is just raw, and thin. He can hit his shots down low, and he has the tools to be a very good post defender, but his back-to-the-basket skillset is pretty unspectacular. He's going to need time to develop. Would honestly say he could be in school for 3 years, but at least 2.

I think Tatum will shoot the ball fairly well from 3. I'm thinking low 30's. That combined with his mid range jumper and his excellent size for his position will make him a superb offensive weapon. His passing is suspect, though. That's an area he should improve in college. I honestly think that Tatum needs to play at the 4 spot to use his quickness against bigger, slower defenders.

Duke has question marks, but I don't think Tatum's shooting is one of them. Being selfish could be, but not his shooting. Besides, Duke should have at least two shooters on the floor with him most of the time, so even if he struggles from 3, it shouldn't really hurt them.

The biggest question on the offensive side of the ball for Duke is the lack of a true PG. They will have to rely on a natural wing scorer to run the show and facilitate in Allen. If you are looking for a chink in the Duke offensive armor, it's that. But it's a small one, most likely.

 

[andreIGUODOLLAsigns4UK]

I've been saying for a long time now. Harry giles is only going to be a fraction of the player he once was. Don't be surprised if he turns into 3-4 year player. Remember. You can count all the OAD's at duke on one hand.

 

[bucsrule8872]

I've been saying for a long time now. Harry giles is only going to be a fraction of the player he once was. Don't be surprised if he turns into 3-4 year player. Remember. You can count all the OAD's at duke on one hand.

I don't think Giles will ever be what he was athletically, but a 75-80% Giles is still better than most guys. He was an absolute stud before the injuries. I still think he is OAD, unless he gets hurt again.

 

[utbb01]

I'm from Winston-Salem and I've bumped into Harry recently and he told me he's ready to go now without a brace!! Now I haven't seen him play but he told me he'd be more than ready by October.

 

[ThroughBlue]

I hate it for Giles but it appears his knees are not going to agree with his talents

 

[coolioo1]

Giles did do well after coming back from his second knee injury, but GMs will be nervous about making him a overall #1 player unless he looks like a cannot miss. So he has to have a AD, Wall, KAT, etc. kind of year ad that maybe hard on a loaded Duke team especially if it takes some time for him to work off the rust.

 

[bucsrule8872]

I'm from Winston-Salem and I've bumped into Harry recently and he told me he's ready to go now without a brace!! Now I haven't seen him play but he told me he'd be more than ready by October.

Same was said for Alex Poythress before the season, then by the end of the season it was reported that he never was 100%. People often do not realize how much an injury can affect them until they start playing on it.

 

[UKCATSFREAK]

I'm from Winston-Salem and I've bumped into Harry recently and he told me he's ready to go now without a brace!! Now I haven't seen him play but he told me he'd be more than ready by October.

No disrespect at all but what do you think he is going to say?

 

[UKCATSFREAK]

I think Tatum will shoot the ball fairly well from 3. I'm thinking low 30's. That combined with his mid range jumper and his excellent size for his position will make him a superb offensive weapon. His passing is suspect, though. That's an area he should improve in college. I honestly think that Tatum needs to play at the 4 spot to use his quickness against bigger, slower defenders.

Duke has question marks, but I don't think Tatum's shooting is one of them. Being selfish could be, but not his shooting. Besides, Duke should have at least two shooters on the floor with him most of the time, so even if he struggles from 3, it shouldn't really hurt them.

The biggest question on the offensive side of the ball for Duke is the lack of a true PG. They will have to rely on a natural wing scorer to run the show and facilitate in Allen. If you are looking for a chink in the Duke offensive armor, it's that. But it's a small one, most likely.

I hate Duke just like everyone else but I think Jackson is going to be fine at PG. He has enough talent around him that he won't have to do too much. I just think alot of people are over looking him. I think he's capable. Just my opinion though.

I actually hope I'm wrong and he implodes but I don't see it. There will obviously be times he struggles, just like any freshman PG but overall I think he'll be ok. Let's hope you're right and I'm way off here.

 

[Cat Ballou]

I hate Duke just like everyone else but I think Jackson is going to be fine at PG. He has enough talent around him that he won't have to do too much. I just think alot of people are over looking him. I think he's capable. Just my opinion though.

I actually hope I'm wrong and he implodes but I don't see it. There will obviously be times he struggles, just like any freshman PG but overall I think he'll be ok. Let's hope you're right and I'm way off here.

Jackson isn't going to be the point, Grayson Allen will be the point. He's got to prove to the NBA he can play point - it's how he was convinced to come back. Jackson will be a sub and probably a 2 yr guy like Bolden.

 

[Mike-D]

I'm from Winston-Salem and I've bumped into Harry recently and he told me he's ready to go now without a brace!! Now I haven't seen him play but he told me he'd be more than ready by October.

You mean to say he didn't tell you his career was over? The nerve.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

Harry's going to be an NBA player and be a multi-millionaire. That said, I hope he comes back a fraction of what he was for UK's sake and for the sake of college basketball. If he comes back at 70-80%, Duke is still the favorite (not that that means much in a single elimination tournament). If he comes back at 95% or so, Duke is going to be damn hard to take down because Giles, close to 100%, is going to be one of the best OAD guys we've seen since the system began.

So yeah, I'm on record for openly stating I hope he's not close to 100%. If that makes me a bad person to say that I hope he's a multi-millionaire but not a historically great player, so be it.

 

[Rhavicc]

I think Tatum will shoot the ball fairly well from 3. I'm thinking low 30's. That combined with his mid range jumper and his excellent size for his position will make him a superb offensive weapon. His passing is suspect, though. That's an area he should improve in college. I honestly think that Tatum needs to play at the 4 spot to use his quickness against bigger, slower defenders.

Duke has question marks, but I don't think Tatum's shooting is one of them. Being selfish could be, but not his shooting. Besides, Duke should have at least two shooters on the floor with him most of the time, so even if he struggles from 3, it shouldn't really hurt them.

The biggest question on the offensive side of the ball for Duke is the lack of a true PG. They will have to rely on a natural wing scorer to run the show and facilitate in Allen. If you are looking for a chink in the Duke offensive armor, it's that. But it's a small one, most likely.

There is absolutely 0 benefit to making Tatum the 4. That means you would make Giles the 5 (on 2 torn ACL's, and being 222 pounds).
Tatum is 6'8, 204 pounds. He's a poor defender, and he's not really strong. He would get abused on the block and sometimes (though much less often) even the perimeter by typical power forwards today.
Offensively, what's the benefit to putting Tatum at the 4? He's a bad 3 point shooter any way you look at it, and he has no low post game, just a mid-range game. Just seems like a bad move.

 

[Rhavicc]

And also, any time you have a wing that has never shot above 30% from 3, throughout his career, then his shooting is absolutely a question mark, especially in Duke's offensive system.

 

[bucsrule8872]

There is absolutely 0 benefit to making Tatum the 4. That means you would make Giles the 5 (on 2 torn ACL's, and being 222 pounds).
Tatum is 6'8, 204 pounds. He's a poor defender, and he's not really strong. He would get abused on the block and sometimes (though much less often) even the perimeter by typical power forwards today.
Offensively, what's the benefit to putting Tatum at the 4? He's a bad 3 point shooter any way you look at it, and he has no low post game, just a mid-range game. Just seems like a bad move.

If you play him at the 4, then Allen, Jackson, and Jones are at the 1, 2, and 3 with Kennard off the bench. That's three shooters on the floor at all times with Tatum at the 4 and Giles at the 5. Then you have Jefferson and Bolden for muscle off the bench. Tatum's quickness at the 4 means he can put the ball on the floor and drive on bigger 4's. While his shooting isn't great for a 3, it's pretty solid for a 4. Most 4's have no range outside of 10-12 feet.

Defensively, he would probably struggle, but this Duke team isn't likely to be a defensive juggernaut anyway. The offensive pluses could outweigh the defensive minuses.

As I mentioned before, the biggest thing is it allows Duke to have more shooters on the floor. That spreads the defense, making it easier for Tatum to operate and makes it harder to double team Giles on the block.

And it puts another ballhandler on the floor for a team without a true PG. Allen, Jackson, and Jones can run the point by committee.

Also, K likes to have a big SF at the 4. Battier, Singler, Parker, and Winslow were all SF's that started at the 4 for him. I think Tatum might fit that mold.

Now, having said that, K probably plays a more traditional lineup and puts Tatum at the 3, Giles at the 4, and Jefferson/Bolden at the 5, just because he has three very good bigs that will need lots of PT.

I would go small, though. K has lots of success going small over the years.

 

[bucsrule8872]

And also, any time you have a wing that has never shot above 30% from 3, throughout his career, then his shooting is absolutely a question mark, especially in Duke's offensive system.

More reason to put him at the 4, IMHO.

Better to have him as your fourth perimeter shooting threat than as your third.

Which is the better shooting lineup that is better in the Duke system for spacing:

G Allen- 40+% shooter.
G Jackson- likely a 40+% shooter.
G Jones- 40+% shooter.
F Tatum- likely around a 30% shooter.
F Giles- not a 3-point shooter.

Or

G Allen- 40+% shooter.
G Jackson or Jones- 40+% shooter.
F Tatum- likely around a 30% shooter.
F Giles- not a 3-point shooter.
C Bolden or Jefferson- not a 3-point shooter.

In Cal's system, the second lineup would be ideal. More length, better rebounding, better interior defense. For K, probably the first lineup. More shooting and ballhandling means a better offense.

 

[Ryan Lemonds Diary]

Coach K seems to have a way of getting guys to buy in so maybe he can get into that huge head of Tatum's and turn him into a team guy instead of a ball hog that he has been every time I have watched him play.

 

[jrpross]

If Duke goes small I think they're probably a better team. However, I think we would match up better defensively if they do. We have 3 guards that should all be good to elite defenders and Gabriel /Bam at the 4/5 is the best way to guard Tatum/Giles. Of course Willis would get schooled whoever he guarded in that lineup.

And of course, that's entirely contingent on if we were to play them at all.