Our National Defensive Rankings Affected by Slow Offense??

[The-Hack]

As is argued in another thread concerning zone vs. man coverage, some believe that our slow-paced offense has artificially inflated our defensive statistics under Stoops.

The theory simply stated: we eat so much clock, we choke our opponents’ opportunities to score and gain yards.

Frankly, I had always assumed this to be true, but the math disproves the theory!!

Since 2018/19 (Penn State/Citrus Win), for six seasons, we have averaged 44th in time-of-possession, among FBS teams.

During that same time period, we have averaged 27th in Scoring Defense, and 25th in total (yardage surrendered) defense.

For our “pace of play” to act as a positive pull or drag affecting other statistics, it would have to lead (or out-perform) the statistics it is putatively dragging into falsely positive numbers.

Instead, our average TOP is actually pretty average since 2018, roughly top third of FBS, but our Scoring Defense and Total Defense over the same time period is significantly stronger than is our time of possession, ranking in the top quadrant of the FBS.

And during this same time period, a year of statistical strangeness affects all the numbers.

During the Covid year, 2020, most teams were limited to intra-conference play: ie, SEC teams played only SEC teams, and MAC teams played only MAC teams, etc.

Hence, if a Frenchman or an alien (or a Frenchman who is an alien) looked at national defensive rankings for 2020, with little knowledge of American college football, he might conclude that the Air Forces, Ohio’s and BYU’s were the truly dominant football programs, as 7 of the Top 10 total defenses were G5 programs, as the G5’s were generally not allowed to play P5 teams. In each the year preceding Covid, and the year following Covid, only one G5 team ranked among the Top 10
Teams in total defense, as they all played some P5 teams.

In that “freak” season of 2020, Kentucky’s TOP was pretty close to its typical average, 41st nationally. It’s defensive rankings, though, appeared to tumble to 45th for “Total” (yardage surrendered) and 45th in Scoring Defense. That season, we played 10 SEC teams and a nationally ranked NC State in the Gator Bowl, and missed out on our typical punching bags of U of L, two G5 teams and an FBS team.

So excluding the 2020 season in order to more fairly measure TOP as it affects Defensive rankings, the numbers are even more telling.

In all normal seasons since 18/19, Kentucky has averaged 45th in TOP, but has averaged 23rd in Scoring Defense and 21st in Total (yardage surrendered) defense. Again, one could more rationally argue that our excellent defenses since 2018 have improved our TOP rankings by holding teams to fewer clock-draining scoring drives, than the reverse.

Yes, we are marginally above average in TOP since 2018, but are nationally excellent in defense, consistently ranking in the top 15 percent of FBS for total yardage and points surrendered.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

As is argued in another thread concerning zone vs. man coverage, some believe that our slow-paced offense has artificially inflated our defensive statistics under Stoops.

Simply put: we eat so much clock, we choke our opponents’ opportunities to score and gain yards.

Frankly, I had always assumed this to be true, but the math disproves the theory!!

Since 2018/19 (Penn State/Citrus Win), for six seasons, we have averaged 44th in time-of-possession, among FBS teams.

During that same time period, we have averaged 27th in Scoring Defense, and 25th in total (yardage surrendered) defense.

For our “pace of play” to act as a positive pull or drag affecting other statistics, it would have to lead (or out-perform) the statistics it is putatively dragging into falsely positive numbers.

Instead, our average TOP is actually pretty average since 2018, roughly top third of FBS, but our Scoring Defense and Total Defense over the same time period is significantly stronger than is our time of possession, ranking in the top quadrant of the FBS.

Stats can show anything the presenter wants him to show. But limit possessions and don't turn the ball over will lead to better defensive numbers. That doesn't take away from what CMS has established as UK's calling card because it's the gameplay of every good defensive team. Turnovers being the biggest variable, imo.

 

[The-Hack]

Turnovers being the biggest variable, imo.

Turnovers are huge, but oddly in that category, without pulling the numbers, we have been at best average since 2018, because of an absolutely hideous 2021/22, when Kentucky reversed an abysmal turnover ratio into a 10/3 season . . . one of the most statistically bizarre events I have witnessed in college football.

Cats Are 126th in Turnover Margin.

Tied with another for the 127th slot, at minus 8, and then two are worse (minus 10 is the worst). That remains an unbelievable stat, maybe the oddest in college football this season, given we are 6-0.

kentucky.forums.rivals.com

 

[gamecockcat]

Here's where the reliance on analytics loses me. Hack, your assertions are, according to the numbers, true. Our slow, ball-control offense hasn't inflated our defensive rankings. However, logic says giving the opponent more possessions will, eventually, lead to your defense allowing more points. Look at the Oklahoma teams under Riley - tons and tons of talent on that side of the ball but the offense scored in bunches and very quickly and their D was typically getting shredded against decent opponents as they got worn down. TN's defenses have had good talent but with their offense racking up big plays, they spend/spent too much time on the field and give/gave up a lot of points.

I'm sure there's an analytic that says Michael Porter Jr. shoots 44% inside of 3 minutes left in the game from 3-point land and Nikola Jokic only shoots 46% from 10-12' in that same time period. So, analytics would say take the 3 - over the course of a season, the MPJ option would result in more points. If I'm coaching the Nuggets, I'm going to NJ every GD play.

Shohei Oktani probably has a stat/analytic that shows he's a .200 hitter after 9 pm on the East Coast with runners in scoring position. If I'm down 2 runs in the 8th with the bases loaded, am I gonna pinch hit for SO? Uh, no.

As Grumpy said, you can almost make statistics say anything and you're not wrong. My eyes say, less possessions total in the game will almost assuredly result in less points and less yards given up by your defense. Regardless of what the analytics say.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Turnovers are huge, but oddly in that category, without pulling the numbers, we have been at best average since 2018, because of an absolutely hideous 2021/22, when Kentucky reversed an abysmal turnover ratio into a 10/3 season . . . one of the most statistically bizarre events I have witnessed in college football.

Cats Are 126th in Turnover Margin.

Tied with another for the 127th slot, at minus 8, and then two are worse (minus 10 is the worst). That remains an unbelievable stat, maybe the oddest in college football this season, given we are 6-0.

kentucky.forums.rivals.com

I am sure that had CMS biting nails into, and I am not talking fingernails. Quite an accomplishment to overcome that stat.

 

[The-Hack]

My eyes say, less possessions total in the game will almost assuredly result in less points and less yards given up by your defense. Regardless of what the analytics say.

I absolutely agree with that statement.

The point of my post is simply this: if we are about average in time-of-possession, nationally, as a ranking of 45th would indicate, the other teams, on average, have not been forced into “less possessions.” They’ve had about the average time-of-possession and presumably, about the average number of possessions.

Hey, if we were consistently ranked in the top 10 for TOP, then obviously, we would have limited the other team’s TOP and their average number of possessions would very obviously take a hit. Hence, one could rationally say our ability to eat massive clock limited our opponents’ scoring opportunities. Really, common sense stuff.

The numbers just don’t show that to be true.

We don’t eat a massive amount of clock.

We are not in the top one-third of FBS teams for eating clock.

Hence, I see no rational argument that we have significantly limited our opponents’ possessions or opportunities to score or gain yardage by eating lots of clock . . . simply because we don’t eat lots of clock.

 

[The-Hack]

I am sure that had CMS biting nails into, and I am not talking fingernails. Quite an accomplishment to overcome that stat.

It was very freakish by mid-season, as we were 6-0 with an average of a minus 2 turnover ratio. As you know, there are 50 years (+) worth of stats showing the average percentage of games won by teams with a minus 2 turnover ratio, and it ain’t good, maybe 30 percent. Meaning, mathematically, the first game you won would be a 30 percent event, the second one, successively, a 9 percent event; the third successive win a 2.7 percent event; the 4th successive win a 0.81 percent event; the 5th successive win a 0.243 event; and the 6th successive win a 0.0729 percent event.

Meaning that of every 10,000 football seasons, only 7.29 of those seasons would be 6-0 with an average of a minus 2 turnover margin.

A freaky statistic!!!