Odds of Duke/UK being in same bracket? (Just for fun)
- Thread starter ZenCatFan73
- Start date
This year is the first time in a while that I honestly do not care where we end up and who is in our bracket. The only teams i would be worried about playing and I hate to say it is UNC, they have a lot of bigs.
I agree. I don't want Purdue either. Nobody with front court depth.
Would love to beat them twice in the same season. Doing that also helps with several co-recruits.
I was going to figure the odds of us being on the same seed line and thus automatically avoiding each other, but then you have to weigh that against Duke being placed in a bracket with UNC or UVA, etc.
Let's go with 25%.
Since 1992, 24 seasons, same bracket 8 times. 92, 94, 98, 01, 05, 07, 12 and 14.
I know the 25% thing comes off as smart-ass, and it is to a certain extent, but honestly, I don't think there's been some concerted effort to get UK and Duke in the same region. You'd have to go back to 93 for it to even be relevant, and since then, UK and Duke have been in the same region in 94, 98, 01, 05, 12, and 14. 6 out of a possible 21 times, not much higher than the 1/4th that randomness would predict.
94 was the one year where I really thought the NCAA went out of its way to (attempt to) create the matchup.
Edit-Forgot 07. But UK was an 8 that year, Duke a 6, so the odds were heavily, heavily stacked against them meeting
94 was the one year where I really thought the NCAA went out of its way to (attempt to) create the matchup.
Edit-Forgot 07. But UK was an 8 that year, Duke a 6, so the odds were heavily, heavily stacked against them meeting
As mj noted it's at least 25%. I think the odds are greater though for IU, and maybe KU or UNC. I'd include UL, but well you know. 
You look at the 3 best teams last year, UK, Wisconsin, and Duke. All 3 are a bit down this year (says the fan of one who's tied for it's conference title), but now UK and Duke to some extent are coming up. Even Wisconsin to a lesser degree, but for sure the beat goes on at UK and Duke. As it always has and hopefully always will at UK.
You look at the 3 best teams last year, UK, Wisconsin, and Duke. All 3 are a bit down this year (says the fan of one who's tied for it's conference title), but now UK and Duke to some extent are coming up. Even Wisconsin to a lesser degree, but for sure the beat goes on at UK and Duke. As it always has and hopefully always will at UK.
We've been on a collision course with them actually quite a bit since Cal's been here but it's just never materialized.
2010: Kentucky lost to West Virginia in the Elite 8, just one game short of Duke v Kentucky.
2011: Kentucky made Final Four but 1 seed Duke lost in Sweet 16 to 5 seed Arizona to spoil potential FF matchup.
2012: Kentucky was the 1 seed and Duke the 2 seed in the South Regional but Duke lost to Lehigh first round.
2013: Kentucky let someone else win the title.
2014: Kentucky (8 seed) and Duke (3 seed) were in the Midwest Regional. Kentucky made the Final game but Duke lost to Mercer in the first round.
2015: Kentucky lost in the Final Four to Wisconsin, falling just short of what would have been the most hyped Championship game in a long time.
2010: Kentucky lost to West Virginia in the Elite 8, just one game short of Duke v Kentucky.
2011: Kentucky made Final Four but 1 seed Duke lost in Sweet 16 to 5 seed Arizona to spoil potential FF matchup.
2012: Kentucky was the 1 seed and Duke the 2 seed in the South Regional but Duke lost to Lehigh first round.
2013: Kentucky let someone else win the title.
2014: Kentucky (8 seed) and Duke (3 seed) were in the Midwest Regional. Kentucky made the Final game but Duke lost to Mercer in the first round.
2015: Kentucky lost in the Final Four to Wisconsin, falling just short of what would have been the most hyped Championship game in a long time.
Neither will be a 1 seed. Nor do I think either will be higher than an 8 seed. But I think you can probably narrow both down to between a 3 and 7 seed. They can't be the same seed in the same region though. So I think that puts the odds at more like 20%.
Depending how both teams finish the season, don't be surprised if they're a 4-5 matchup in the second round. I'm hoping we move to a 3 seed, and possibly even a 2 seed if we were to somehow win out or lose only one more. Duke definitely has more losses coming.
