That leaves Ole Miss, Miss St, and South Carolina as the only teams above us. Mississippi schools will probably get Texas and Vegas bowls. South Carolina can get Gator. Arkansas or Missouri can slide up to the Liberty Bowl with the other getting Birmingham. That leaves ReliaQuest for us and MCB for Florida.
If our top 4 all go NYD6, our 5th best (Ole Miss) will be taken by Citrus. If LSU tumbles below Penn State in the rankings, apparently, they get the Citrus. The net affect will be to slide one of our 6-6 teams to either Birmingham or Tampa’s Gasparilla Bowl.
While record “does not matter” officially for the Group of Six bowls, remember UT’s hissy fit in 2019, when we nearly went to the Gator over them. They successfully pled their victory over us to take the Gator and send us to Charlotte.
Given that Tampa is on New Year’s Day it is perceived as better than the Gator Bowl, etc., and given that the Gator is in Florida, I think it is perceived as a better destination than the MCB, etc.
The league, supposedly, wants to keep bowls from repeating destinations (sans the NYD6 and Citrus which can and do repeat appearances). I read a few years ago that for the Group of Six, they also prefer a two year non-repeat; if still so, that would knock us out of the Gator.
My best guess is LSU to Citrus, USCe to the Tampa Bowl, Ole Miss to Gator, UK to Texas Bowl, Mizzou to Las Vegas, State to MCB and UF to the Memphis, Arkansas to Birmingham.
My group is signed up for tickets for all but Las Vegas.