Before the season most people saw a team with an enormous ceiling that would probably struggle early. The belief was that UK would have the best backcourt in the country but Poythress was a question mark and an X-Factor and although it might take Skal a little longer than most Cal five-star big men to hit his stride, he was still going to contend in a major way for All-American honors.
We're about a third of the way into the season and putting together everything we know from the eye test to the results and both the bare and advanced stats, here's how I'd tinker with the preseason consensus expectation:
1. This team's floor is higher than most people thought (and than I thought).
2. Either this team's ceiling is lower than expected or at the least the previously envisioned ceiling is something they're much less likely to achieve.
Higher floor, lower ceiling. If you think it's too early for that talk just remember I'm acknowledging this can change. All we have to go on is what we've seen so the farther out from March we are the more ridiculous our predictions are likely to look when we remember them in hindsight.
Higher Floor: The main reason I'm saying this team's floor is higher than most probably thought (although gauging a general opinion of something as abstract itself as a 'floor' is impossible, I'm good at making up things and pretending they're scientific) is this: Even though the team has been one of the worst in the nation from three-point range, Skal Labissiere has been worse than absolutely every person in the world (who knew about him) imagined, free throw shooting has been a major concern and UK's warts have been obvious, the results have been better than you'd expect if you had been told those things would happen before the season. Had you told me what Ulis and Murray would be shooting, the team's FT/3pt clip and Skal's game-by-game stats I'd have said that they would probably have had at least one and probably two more losses by now (UCLA, Arizona State, one total head scratcher).
Lower Ceiling (or harder to reach ceiling): The key here is contained above. The chances of Skal Labissiere ever becoming the player most people thought he could be are slim. There's no doubt he can end the season as 'not' a liability but the simple fact that's a conversation now is telling. Both Skal's "ceiling" as a one-year college player (assuming he will be) and any reasonable expectations are downgraded. And that significantly alters the preseason talk about the frontcourt. Also, while the team could become decent from three, it's a stretch to say they'll ever be a good three point shooting team, and as strong as they've been at getting to the rim it's hard to say a team with a three point guard lineup has a ridiculous ceiling when they are so questionable in terms of their shooting efficiency in the backcourt.
So what are UK's "floor" and "ceiling" now? Of course anybody can lose in the first round of the tournament on a fluke, and there are always Cinderellas.
Before the season I said I thought UK would get to the Final Four and lose there. Today I think I'd say the most likely tournament scenario is probably the Elite Eight although reasonable people can disagree on both the bear and bull side of what I just said. I think because UK has proven that they can win, are gritty and have been better than you'd think even with some obvious warts, they're not all that susceptible to being knocked out in an early round game against a team with modest seeding. They defend the perimeter well and thus minimize one significant variable (a team getting super hot). But I think they're more susceptible to later round losses (Sweet 16 on) than I thought their preseason 'ceiling' talk accounted for because of their own shooting issues and also the fact that in those rounds they'd be more likely to face daunting frontcourts that could pose real problems. An aside, but I think they're a little more susceptible to foul trouble that could really hurt than I probably would have said before the year.
Interested in your take. Has your 'ceiling' and 'floor' for this UK team changed? And what are those things right now in your mind?
We're about a third of the way into the season and putting together everything we know from the eye test to the results and both the bare and advanced stats, here's how I'd tinker with the preseason consensus expectation:
1. This team's floor is higher than most people thought (and than I thought).
2. Either this team's ceiling is lower than expected or at the least the previously envisioned ceiling is something they're much less likely to achieve.
Higher floor, lower ceiling. If you think it's too early for that talk just remember I'm acknowledging this can change. All we have to go on is what we've seen so the farther out from March we are the more ridiculous our predictions are likely to look when we remember them in hindsight.
Higher Floor: The main reason I'm saying this team's floor is higher than most probably thought (although gauging a general opinion of something as abstract itself as a 'floor' is impossible, I'm good at making up things and pretending they're scientific) is this: Even though the team has been one of the worst in the nation from three-point range, Skal Labissiere has been worse than absolutely every person in the world (who knew about him) imagined, free throw shooting has been a major concern and UK's warts have been obvious, the results have been better than you'd expect if you had been told those things would happen before the season. Had you told me what Ulis and Murray would be shooting, the team's FT/3pt clip and Skal's game-by-game stats I'd have said that they would probably have had at least one and probably two more losses by now (UCLA, Arizona State, one total head scratcher).
Lower Ceiling (or harder to reach ceiling): The key here is contained above. The chances of Skal Labissiere ever becoming the player most people thought he could be are slim. There's no doubt he can end the season as 'not' a liability but the simple fact that's a conversation now is telling. Both Skal's "ceiling" as a one-year college player (assuming he will be) and any reasonable expectations are downgraded. And that significantly alters the preseason talk about the frontcourt. Also, while the team could become decent from three, it's a stretch to say they'll ever be a good three point shooting team, and as strong as they've been at getting to the rim it's hard to say a team with a three point guard lineup has a ridiculous ceiling when they are so questionable in terms of their shooting efficiency in the backcourt.
So what are UK's "floor" and "ceiling" now? Of course anybody can lose in the first round of the tournament on a fluke, and there are always Cinderellas.
Before the season I said I thought UK would get to the Final Four and lose there. Today I think I'd say the most likely tournament scenario is probably the Elite Eight although reasonable people can disagree on both the bear and bull side of what I just said. I think because UK has proven that they can win, are gritty and have been better than you'd think even with some obvious warts, they're not all that susceptible to being knocked out in an early round game against a team with modest seeding. They defend the perimeter well and thus minimize one significant variable (a team getting super hot). But I think they're more susceptible to later round losses (Sweet 16 on) than I thought their preseason 'ceiling' talk accounted for because of their own shooting issues and also the fact that in those rounds they'd be more likely to face daunting frontcourts that could pose real problems. An aside, but I think they're a little more susceptible to foul trouble that could really hurt than I probably would have said before the year.
Interested in your take. Has your 'ceiling' and 'floor' for this UK team changed? And what are those things right now in your mind?
